Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

cubatahavana

Cyrus wrote: »

I like rathgar and i like this style of house but its small and overpriced imo, needs another 300k spent minimum

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-rostrevor-road-rathgar-dublin-6-d06-f3c2/4446351

Its warm apparently

D2 BER

I don't get the state of these kind of houses. To me its way overpriced for what you get

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

I like rathgar and i like this style of house but its small and overpriced imo, needs another 300k spent minimum

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-rostrevor-road-rathgar-dublin-6-d06-f3c2/4446351

Its warm apparently

D2 BER

That BER number is very suspicious imo

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

That BER number is very suspicious imo

Misread, thought it was B2 BER

Pelezico

JimmyVik wrote: »

10% is my trigger point too.
Actually might wait for 9% since there will be a lot of people waiting for 10% and might as well get in before the competition

Jimmy, ten percent sounds about right. I want to leave some for the next fellow.

And ten percent means he wont buy at the top and hate the house for the next ten years.

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

Of course property will fall. We have massive unemployment and an equally massive e deficit.

10% fall in say fifteen months is the equivalent of 35k for my son.

Himself and the girlfriend can save another 35k so that's a nice start in life.

.

Don’t be surprised if the access to credit at that point means he doesn’t have 300k+ to spend.

Mind you, 10% drop seems optimistic to me. If that’s all it is, for a lot of people it’s really not worth waiting.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

.

Don’t be surprised if the access to credit at that point means he doesn’t have 300k+ to spend.

Mind you, 10% drop seems optimistic to me. If that’s all it is, for a lot of people it’s really not worth waiting.

10% not worth taking? Are you for real?
As for access to credit, he will have a good deposit.

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

10% not worth taking? Are you for real?
As for access to credit, he will have a good deposit.

15 months rent at 1500 per month is 22500. For a potential 35k discount, you are 12.5k up.

Ush1

cubatahavana wrote: »

I don't get the state of these kind of houses. To me its way overpriced for what you get

You get the location.

Pelezico

Springy Turf wrote: »

15 months rent at 1500 per month is 22500. For a potential 35k discount, you are 12.5k up.

He lives at home and will same 35k in that time with his gf.

So it really adds up for him. And your numbers are naive.

No inclusion for mortgage interest, repairs, insurance, property tax etc etc etc.

You own a house yourself? I doubt it if you believe these numbers.

Graham

Springy Turf wrote: »

15 months rent at 1500 per month is 22500. For a potential 35k discount, you are 12.5k up.

And a year or two further out from finishing your mortgage.

Pelezico

Graham wrote: »

And a year or two further out from finishing your mortgage.

His mortgage will be 70k lower to start with.

Boy...you guys are desperate.

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

His mortgage will be 70k lower to start with.

Boy...you guys are desperate.

maybe but the house and area that he want looks like it might not be available, properties are coming down day by day

Pelezico

fliball123 wrote: »

maybe but the house and area that he want looks like it might not be available, properties are coming down day by day

Let's wait and see.

The autumn selling season usually results in I crease in properties on market. Summer numbers usually fall.

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

Let's wait and see.

The autumn selling season usually results in I crease in properties on market. Summer numbers usually fall.

They have been falling all Spring as well which is usually a bigger selling season than Autumn

Graham

Pelezico wrote: »

His mortgage will be 70k lower to start with.

Boy...you guys are desperate.

Remember this is a discussion about the market in general not your son/daughter.

Not every new buyer has a 70k deposit, not every potential buyer has the luxury of living at home while they save, not every potential buyer has a guaranteed job for life and guaranteed mortgage approval, not every potential buyer is young enough to wait withou compromising their mortgage term/budget.

Pelezico

fliball123 wrote: »

They have been falling all Spring as well which is usually a bigger selling season than Autumn

You are in denial. Denial is not a river in Africa.

To suggest that a fall in house prices does not benefit buyer is denial.

As for autumn selling season, numbers usually increase. September will tell a story.

Pelezico

Graham wrote: »

Remember this is a discussion about the market in general not your son/daughter.

Not every new buyer has a 70k deposit, not every potential buyer has the luxury of living at home while they save, not every potential buyer has a guaranteed job for life and guaranteed mortgage approval, not every potential buyer is young enough to wait withou compromising their mortgage term/budget.

Is this where I get banned?

fliball123

Pelezico wrote: »

You are in denial. Denial is not a river in Africa.

To suggest that a fall in house prices does not benefit buyer is denial.

As for autumn selling season, numbers usually increase. September will tell a story.

What are you on about? I never said anything about that? I have just been saying that even if property prices drop the property that someone would ideally like may not be there for them. There are over 2.5k properties less now than there was back in March on Myhome. I am simply pointing this out sure with the p1ss poor options there now the ideal property is not there now either and I have never advised anyone on buying or selling simply pointing out fact

Graham

Pelezico wrote: »

Is this where I get banned?

Why? What have you done?

TheSheriff

Pelezico wrote: »

He lives at home and will same 35k in that time with his gf.

So it really adds up for him. And your numbers are naive.

No inclusion for mortgage interest, repairs, insurance, property tax etc etc etc.

You own a house yourself? I doubt it if you believe these numbers.

Your son could just stay at home for 10 years and then he will have no mortgage (saving 35k per year).

Small bit of a reality check here................... alot people don't live at home with their parents.

The cost of renting in Dublin to hold out for a 10% drop (in 12+ months) is really not worth it.

Larger drops yes, and we may see those yet.

Knex*

Springy Turf wrote: »

.

Don’t be surprised if the access to credit at that point means he doesn’t have 300k+ to spend.

Mind you, 10% drop seems optimistic to me. If that’s all it is, for a lot of people it’s really not worth waiting.

That's a 500k house coming down to 450. If you knew that was available in 12 months, you'd be daft not to wait.

Huge impact on your mortgage.

fliball123

Knex* wrote: »

That's a 500k house coming down to 450. If you knew that was available in 12 months, you'd be daft not to wait.

Huge impact on your mortgage.

True but you will have a load of other people in a better position than him waiting to buy this house as well such as cash buyers but if he is not bothered about where and the what shape the house is in I can understand him waiting alright. good luck with it I just hope your not left waiting for that drop your looking for

Knex*

Springy Turf wrote: »

15 months rent at 1500 per month is 22500. For a potential 35k discount, you are 12.5k up.

You're not taking into account the effect of your mortgage, interest, and repayments over the lifetime of the mortgage.


House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95


House price reduces even 5%, and its €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So even at 5% you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years. It's not just the initial drop in price.

People might still find that that's OK to sacrifice and want to move ahead with a purchase now - that's fine. Everyone has their own reasons, but there's more of a financial impact than you're outlining.

JJJackal

Knex* wrote: »

You're not taking into account the effect of your mortgage, interest, and repayments over the lifetime of the mortgage.


House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95


House price reduces even 5%, and its €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So even at 5% you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years. It's not just the initial drop in price.

This type of calculation fails to take 2 factors into account
A) unless your living somewhere for free for the year your paying rent etc - rent on a 500,000 property is likely 2,000 per month or 24,000 per year
your mortgage repayments go for 31 years from today in calc B (as you bought a year later); also maybe you can only get mortgage for 29 years now due to age and thus repayments are more closely aligned

Cyrus

Knex* wrote: »

You're not taking into account the effect of your mortgage, interest, and repayments over the lifetime of the mortgage.


House price now is 420,000.
Mortgage of 378,000 @ 3.15% over 30 years.
Monthly repayments: €1,624.41
Total mortgage: €584,785.95


House price reduces even 5%, and its €399,000.
Mortgage is now €359,100 over 30 years.
Monthly repayments €1,543.19
Total mortgage: €555,546.65

Total savings: 29,239.30.

So even at 5% you're saving an extra 10k over the 30 years. It's not just the initial drop in price.

People might still find that that's OK to sacrifice and want to move ahead with a purchase now - that's fine. Everyone has their own reasons, but there's more of a financial impact than you're outlining.

without getting too obtuse thats a notional saving, it will get eroded by inflation.

fliball123

JJJackal wrote: »

This type of calculation fails to take 2 factors into account
A) unless your living somewhere for free for the year your paying rent etc - rent on a 500,000 property is likely 2,000 per month or 24,000 per year
your mortgage repayments go for 31 years from today in calc B (as you bought a year later); also maybe you can only get mortgage for 29 years now due to age and thus repayments are more closely aligned

Or you cant get a mortgage at all as if things have dropped by 5% banks may deem you too much of a risk which is happening a lot currently its good the banks are doing this and being prudent before any drop in prices (if there is one)

cubatahavana

Pelezico wrote: »

His mortgage will be 70k lower to start with.

Boy...you guys are desperate.

for us, the problem is not houses being 10% up or down. It's the availability of them. At the moment there are very few houses that we've seen that we've liked. Further down the road, there could be even less. My apartment dropped nearly a 50% in the previous recession (bought early 2007), but I am not regretting buying when I did. I didn't buy it as an investment

c.p.w.g.w

I see a few folks on different social media site bemoaning not being able get a house/mortgage...

The following is true for each of them...

Have expensive taste in footwear and clothing (Balenciaga & All Saints clothing(€200 tee-shirt)

Have a ridiculous amount of makeup(both male & female) and expensive branded stuff from YouTubers/instagremmers

Have the latest Samsung/iPhone, and regularly will upgrade to the latest model upon release

Order take-out on a very regular basis

Have loans for things like holidays and just because the bank offer a loan via email...

The people I mentioned at the beginning are guilty of at least 1...But a buddy is literally guilty of all the above...

There is a certain segment of society who are incapable of planning beyond a month financially...

thomas 123

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

I see a few folks on different social media site bemoaning not being able get a house/mortgage...

The following is true for each of them...

Have expensive taste in footwear and clothing (Balenciaga & All Saints clothing(€200 tee-shirt)

Have a ridiculous amount of makeup(both male & female) and expensive branded stuff from YouTubers/instagremmers

Have the latest Samsung/iPhone, and regularly will upgrade to the latest model upon release

Order take-out on a very regular basis

Have loans for things like holidays and just because the bank offer a loan via email...

The people I mentioned at the beginning are guilty of at least 1...But a buddy is literally guilty of all the above...

There is a certain segment of society who are incapable of planning beyond a month financially...

House prices have gone up due to more demand.

Wages have stayed the same for the most part, in fact id say they have gone down in value with rising costs everywhere else.

Not so long ago one person went to work while one stayed home and people got by just fine.

On top of this the 3.5x rule limits a lot of us, so saving for a deposit is not even the only issue.

There is an issue, just because you see some people with a phone or shoes doesn’t mean there is not a horrible problem right now with housing.

Cyrus

thomas 123 wrote: »

House prices have gone up due to more demand.

Wages have stayed the same for the most part, in fact id say they have gone down in value with rising costs everywhere else.

Not so long ago one person went to work while one stayed home and people got by just fine.

On top of this the 3.5x rule limits a lot of us, so saving for a deposit is not even the only issue.

There is an issue, just because you see some people with a phone or shoes doesn’t mean there is not a horrible problem right now with housing.

this bemoaning of the 3.5x rule drives me mad, house prices would be a lot higher without it.