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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #1292
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,764 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Shelga wrote: »
    But who is saying it should just be handed to us? No one is arguing that.

    Ok, you had no life for 4 years, well done. That's 4 years of your 20s you'll never get back, and no I'm not saying go out and spend all your money on alcohol, but there has to be some leeway for occasional eating out, socialising, seeing a little bit of the world, even if that's just an odd weekend away. I think those things apply to both the 1980s and now. I would crack up if I sat in my living room for 4 years straight.

    All people are saying is that it is frustrating and demoralising if you are on a middling salary of say €40-45k in Dublin, you pay €700 a month in rent, you cut the rest of your expenses down to the bone, and say you save €800-1000 a month. The bank will only lend you €158000. Say a pretty basic 2 bed place in Dublin costs €260k. It will take you 9.5 years to save a deposit, plus come up with an extra €5k for stamp duty and expenses. For all of this 9 years you can have no major expenses, no holidays, no unexpected large bills.

    Now, obviously people would aim to earn more as the years go by. But what if you start off on €23k, and work your way up to €45k after 5-10 years? I'm sure this isn't a million miles away from what teachers and nurses earn.

    What kind of life is that? There is chasm between what I have just outlined, and "expecting a house to be handed to you." The truth is, it's near impossible to do, without a partner or family help, whereas my parents could easily secure a mortgage on 1 income, and the house was about twice my father's annual salary. You cannot compare the two.

    Anyway, I'm out, these conversations go nowhere.

    isnt the answer if you are a teacher or nurse get out of dublin?

    you know going in what the salary levels are like and they can offer a decent life outside of dublin. In dublin they are poorly paid jobs.


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    #1293
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well aren't you just proof that it can be done? I am not saying its easy and you will be on the ladder and once your on when your more comfortable or moving on in your life as in a wife, kids whatever floats your boat you can trade up and when the kids fly the coup and you don't need the 4/5 beds anymore you can trade down. I have listed a fair few differences between now and when I was starting out but fair play and congrats on your gaff..go and enjoy it as you have made a lot of sacrifices for it.

    If everyone did what i did there would be mass suicides, lets be real here and have some empathy - pulling up the ladder has become a sport.

    My luck is finding a job i'm interested in and having a personality type that dosent enjoy going out every weekend.

    Again if thats the standard for a single person i find it depressing.


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    #1294
    Cantstandsya
    Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Cantstandsya


    Cyrus wrote: »
    im probably the same generation as you so you can retract your last comment,

    my parents bought a modest house when they were young, some of the rooms had no flooring, it was about 600 sq feet. its not 3500 sq feet and it would be most peoples idea of a dream house, but for years they had no flooring, no curtains, you get the jist.

    most people wouldnt care to live like that today, thats what i meant.



    And plenty of people buy fixer uppers today. Out of my friends who own houses the majority needed significant work, only one bought a new build.

    Also, your parents didn't "care to live like that" either. Hence why it's now "most people's idea of a dream house".


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    #1295
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,981 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    brisan wrote: »
    I bought my first house in 1982 as a 4th year apprentice
    3 bed semi for 24500 pounds
    Borrowed 18k at 16.5 %
    Lads now complain about 3 or 4 % mortgages lol

    I'm loving this.

    1 punt = 1.27 Euros.

    24500 punt = 31,115 Euros
    18k = 22860 Euros

    Inflation from 1982 to 2020 is 150%.

    So in current terms.
    brisan wrote: »
    I bought my first house in 2020 as a 4th year apprentice
    3 bed semi for 77,992 euros
    Borrowed 57,300 at 16.5 %
    Lads now complain about 3 or 4 % mortgages lol

    Repayments for your 3 bed semi-D would be roughly 800 quid in 2020.
    There are about around 15 3 bed semi-D's for sale under 80k in the entire country.

    A 4th year apprentice now days makes roughly 35k a year.
    They can borrow 122k today plus deposit, lets say with a 25% deposit like yourself, that's a 150k house. That would be a manageable 600 quid a month mortgage for a person earning that income.

    Would you sell your house to a 4th year apprentice for 150k? Twice what you paid for it, inflation taken into account.

    I'm going to go out on a limb and say you wouldn't.


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    #1296
    Shelga
    Registered Users Posts: 3,002 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Cyrus wrote: »
    isnt the answer if you are a teacher or nurse get out of dublin?

    you know going in what the salary levels are like and they can offer a decent life outside of dublin. In dublin they are poorly paid jobs.

    Ok, so what’s the motivation for someone who was born and raised in Dublin to become a nurse? What if they don’t want to move to Wexford, they have frail parents they want to be near?

    Let’s banish all the nurses from Dublin, great idea. Don’t know who’s going to look after you when you go to hospital, but let’s worry about that another time.


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    #1297
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,764 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Cantstandsya wrote: »
    And plenty of people buy fixer uppers today. Out of my friends who own houses the majority needed significant work, only one bought a new build.

    Also, your parents didn't "care to live like that" either. Hence why it's now "most people's idea of a dream house".

    theres a difference between fixer uppers and a place with no flooring but sure whatever, everyone has it harder today.


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    #1298
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,764 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Shelga wrote: »
    Ok, so what’s the motivation for someone who was born and raised in Dublin to become a nurse? What if they don’t want to move to Wexford, they have frail parents they want to be near?

    Let’s banish all the nurses from Dublin, great idea. Don’t know who’s going to look after you when you go to hospital, but let’s worry about that another time.


    im just pointing out the facts, if i wanted to be a teacher or nurse dublin wouldnt be where id be setting up home. im not saying its good for dublin, its just common sense.

    i have advocated before that certain key services take the place of these social housing allocations, so if 10% of a new estate in dublinneeds to be social housing it should be targetted at nurses, guards, firemen, teachers etc etc first.


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    #1299
    Cantstandsya
    Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Cantstandsya


    Cyrus wrote: »
    theres a difference between fixer uppers and a place with no flooring but sure whatever, everyone has it harder today.

    One of their houses had no roof. Is that comparable?

    Ah no, the old people were just a superior breed to all these whinging kids.


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    #1300
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,764 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Cantstandsya wrote: »
    One of their houses had no roof. Is that comparable?

    Ah no, the old people were just a superior breed to all these whinging kids.


    how did they get a mortgage for a house with no roof?

    i do think the current generation is very self entitled, its why you see such a large cohort of young people voting for sinn fein, because they are naive enough to believe their empty promises.


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    #1301
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,298 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Don't forget a lot of those 3bed semis in the 80s were in the middle of nowhere by most city centre dubs pov.

    So a 500k 3bed semi in templeogue right now was prob the equivalent of naas back then.

    I think comparing the 80s to now is akin to comparing sporting legends of different decades. Too many variables to get a proper comparison.

    I bought when I was 29, I'm 35 now. I've had a relatively average wage since college I would say. I've always been able to save money though and me and the missus tightened our belts for two years and bought.

    It was tough but we still took a holiday and went out etc but we had targets and did what was needed to hit them.

    Both lived at home till mid and late twenties respectively but I've lived abroad etc in those periods. Never saw living at home as a big deal though.

    I'm lucky in lots of ways but I've mates who still haven't bought and it tends to be because of their choices rather than an economic bogey man.

    Lads who where earning crazy money in their trades back in the boom but still would be living paycheck to paycheck. I could never understand what they were doing with their money. We ran in the same circles, same nights out, same group holidays etc

    Same lads have CU loans, personal loans, massive CC bills and not much to show for it.

    There's a nack to accumulating money and it's not solely down to earning more. Some people just can't save for the life of them and once you're too far down the line it's virtually impossible to get out of the hole.


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    #1302
    Cantstandsya
    Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Cantstandsya


    Cyrus wrote: »
    how did they get a mortgage for a house with no roof?

    i do think the current generation is very self entitled, its why you see such a large cohort of young people voting for sinn fein, because they are naive enough to believe their empty promises.

    You can ask the bank that question. I'm not privy to their dealings but I will say that after significant work it's a beautiful home. Not unlike your parents' place.

    Many young people have been frozen out of the housing market to the extent that their lives are left on hold so of course they're going to vote in their own interest.

    They are the yin to the yang of the likes of fliball on here questioning why anyone who got their house for a song 20+ years ago should ever have to accept they can't cash in on the asset that has blown up in value through absolutely no work of their own.


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    #1303
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,217 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    awec wrote: »
    How many 4th year apprentices do you think can buy 3 bed semi's today?

    How many people now that buy houses are willing to move into them with bare floor and walls, no tiles timber flooring or carpets,no painting done, no on-suite just one bathroom, no down stairs toilet ( I know it a disable access regulation now), 50/50 chance no kitchen and often very little in the way of untensiles, definately no fitted wardrobes, while deal single glazed windows, maybe a washing machine and a small fridge and icebox no freezer, 2nd hand furniture, curtains on one bedroom.....if you were lucky if not a sheet tacked up there. At the time over 50% of new houses had no oil just a backboiler on the front fireplace. Maybe a lawn at the front of the house definately not at the back. Over the next 2-5 years when you got a burst of money from overtime you did all these things.


    Cantstandsya wrote: »
    So the fourth year apprentice should start saving for his deposit in third year of secondary school?

    Na just when they start working daughter is only teaching two years no permanent job, yet even spend a year working in Dublaaan paid 12K for a car two months ago had it in savings and still a bit left. Now she is no hermit but neither is she stupid with money.


    schmittel wrote: »
    Imagine how much they will complain if their 3% variable rate becomes 15%!

    It the same with all those talking about pre 2007 buyers and negative equity most are on 0.75-1.5% trackers.
    awec wrote: »
    This is one of the laziest, most patronising elements of society today, the idea that people buying today have it easy.

    Anyone who thinks people struggle to buy houses today because they go out at weekends is an idiot. There is no other word for it. It's that avocado toast nonsense.

    It is always so bemusing to hear how easy it is today from people who bought a 3 bed house in Dublin on a single working class salary.

    It was not easy back then either there was no avacoda and toast either. Neither was there stags and hen parties that lasted 2-3 days, weddings were a one evening affair again not a 2-3 day affair. There was no 3-4 weekends away in hotels there might be one in a tent in Lisdoonvarna, No take away latte, you made your flask in the morning, nor lunch out 2-3 time a week, you bought your sambo's to work and college as well. You might go to a chipper once a week and to a Gaa social one a year but eating out was not a regular event. There was no year out in Australia or South America and arriving back broke say where my house.

    In other words there was different priorities.

    fliball123 wrote: »
    Ok you have lost me I never said it was easy for the current generation. I simply said that things should not just be handed to them. Do you see the difference? I have 2 kids and I know they will be running the same race and jumping the same hurdles you are. I do sympathize that some cannot afford to buy where they want but why should a seller sell at a lower price so that someone can afford to buy where they want and most likely where other people will want and will be willing to pay more?

    I give 10-1 against your kids not buying a house it may not be easy but they will not have a sense of entitlement.
    Cantstandsya wrote: »
    What does this mean?

    Please show me the evidence that "previous generations were more likely to sacrifice".

    It sounds like the usual dismissive guff that gets trotted out by a generation passively enriched by rocketing asset prices to convince themselves they earned their wealth.

    Owning you own house is a not wealth. you always need somewhere to live. its real advantage is when you reach retirement age and no mortgage it reduces your outgoing significient.
    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    I went to college 4 years, study most weekends to get certifications and currently a programmer on 48k aged 24, live with my parents and nearly have the deposit up yet i'm still relying on the Rebuilding Ireland scheme to buy in a very rough part of D11, thats fine though i'm excited about getting my own home and understand how lucky i am.

    Many of those weekends though i thought to myself this isnt sustainable only to a hyper introvert who loves learning like myself, is this the standard for a single person to own their own home now? if so its pretty miserable tbh.

    This avocado toast attitude has ran its course, my dad often acknowledges he bought a 4 bedroom really nice house on 1 bricky wage in the 80s - compare that standard to now.

    Single people did not own there own house back then either unless well into there 30's
    Cantstandsya wrote: »
    Did you read what the poster actually wrote?

    Its a two may issue I say
    Shelga wrote: »
    But who is saying it should just be handed to us? No one is arguing that.

    Ok, you had no life for 4 years, well done. That's 4 years of your 20s you'll never get back, and no I'm not saying go out and spend all your money on alcohol, but there has to be some leeway for occasional eating out, socialising, seeing a little bit of the world, even if that's just an odd weekend away. I think those things apply to both the 1980s and now. I would crack up if I sat in my living room for 4 years straight.

    All people are saying is that it is frustrating and demoralising if you are on a middling salary of say €40-45k in Dublin, you pay €700 a month in rent, you cut the rest of your expenses down to the bone, and say you save €800-1000 a month. The bank will only lend you €158000. Say a pretty basic 2 bed place in Dublin costs €260k. It will take you 9.5 years to save a deposit, plus come up with an extra €5k for stamp duty and expenses. For all of this 9 years you can have no major expenses, no holidays, no unexpected large bills.

    Now, obviously people would aim to earn more as the years go by. But what if you start off on €23k, and work your way up to €45k after 5-10 years? I'm sure this isn't a million miles away from what teachers and nurses earn.

    What kind of life is that? There is chasm between what I have just outlined, and "expecting a house to be handed to you." The truth is, it's near impossible to do, without a partner or family help, whereas my parents could easily secure a mortgage on 1 income, and the house was about twice my father's annual salary. You cannot compare the two.

    Anyway, I'm out, these conversations go nowhere.


    The big difference between now and the 1980's/early 90's back then single people in there 20's and 30's seldom bought houses either. They could not access the loan required either and that was outside Dublin. It was generally couple married or getting married that bought houses. A single person would be in there 40's before they could buy a house.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #1304
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,217 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Shelga wrote: »
    Ok, so what’s the motivation for someone who was born and raised in Dublin to become a nurse? What if they don’t want to move to Wexford, they have frail parents they want to be near?

    Let’s banish all the nurses from Dublin, great idea. Don’t know who’s going to look after you when you go to hospital, but let’s worry about that another time.
    Cyrus wrote: »
    im just pointing out the facts, if i wanted to be a teacher or nurse dublin wouldnt be where id be setting up home. im not saying its good for dublin, its just common sense.

    i have advocated before that certain key services take the place of these social housing allocations, so if 10% of a new estate in dublinneeds to be social housing it should be targetted at nurses, guards, firemen, teachers etc etc first.

    Two years ago I wen on holidays in the US in the Boston area. There is an Island there called Nantucket. Probably the most expensive houses in the world. The planning laws are so tight all the houses have to be build of wood and can only be painted one of 7-9 pastel colours. Now property is so expensive there that ordinary trades people, nurses , teachers etc could never afford to live there. So there is a core of houses that are assigned to these people, they have a fixed first day cost and unless a family member takes up that trade or profession the house has a fixed inflation selling cost to the next person that buys ibn that trade or profession.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #1305
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    AlmightyCushion wrote: »
    If he earned just €2,001 more he would not be able to use the rebuilding ireland home loan and would get a much lower multiple from a bank. Also, read his post. It is far more than just sacrificing he is doing.

    I know plenty of people that have enough for a deposit saved up, but house prices are too expensive and would leave them either in a rough area or with a seriously long commute.

    Join the club I have one bro in Balbriggan, one in Clondalkin and a sister in Finglas hardly what you would call affluent areas. One of their kids had to buy in Navan in Meath and he works in City West, but this was all they could afford and this is where the problem is people want the leafy suburbs of south Dublin or close to their job or family the problem is more people want to live there than there are properties available. This is the same all over the world look at London, Paris, New York, Sydney people pay a premium to be in a place that has a high demand, its not something unique to this country.


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    #1306
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    If everyone did what i did there would be mass suicides, lets be real here and have some empathy - pulling up the ladder has become a sport.

    My luck is finding a job i'm interested in and having a personality type that dosent enjoy going out every weekend.

    Again if thats the standard for a single person i find it depressing.

    First off most people buying would be as a couple I understand you are as a single but if you look at the % of single people getting a mortgage over the last number of years it would be fairly low. So their lifestyle would be different personally it was great as I never had more sex with the misses then I did when I was saving :)

    No one is pulling the ladder up just don't understand why people think you should bring your property price down to allow someone buy it at a cost lower than what you could get from someone else. If you cant afford it feel free to buy something smaller, in a place less desirable or further out, everyone has the same options.


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    #1307
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Shelga wrote: »
    Ok, so what’s the motivation for someone who was born and raised in Dublin to become a nurse? What if they don’t want to move to Wexford, they have frail parents they want to be near?

    Let’s banish all the nurses from Dublin, great idea. Don’t know who’s going to look after you when you go to hospital, but let’s worry about that another time.

    The same option everyone else who isnt a nurse has

    Rent
    Stay with the parents
    Move to a smaller place
    Move to a place in a less desirable and cheaper area
    Move to a commuter county - Plenty of choices, meath, kildare, wexford, Wicklow, Louth. where I work one lad is commuting in form Kildare.

    I appreciate it will be hard but its the same for everyone nurse or not


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    #1308
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    fliball123 wrote: »
    The same option everyone else who isnt a nurse has

    Rent
    Stay with the paretns
    Move to a smaller place
    Move to a place in a less desirable and cheaper area
    Move to a commuter county - Plenty of choices, meath, kildare, wexford, Wicklow, Louth. where I work one lad is commuting in form Kildare.

    I appreciate it will be hard but its the same for everyone nurse or not

    If we had good transport links it would be fine.

    But as it stands its an insane policy.

    We can literally build hundreds of thousands of units in Dublin. No shortage of land at all.

    A fear of high rise is holding us all back.


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    #1309
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    landofthetree wrote: »
    If we had good transport links it would be fine.

    But as it stands its an insane policy.

    We can literally build hundreds of thousands of units in Dublin. No shortage of land at all.

    A fear of high rise is holding us all back.

    Its not just that its also the cost of building is sky high in the country, but you are right on the high rise issue there should be more stories to each new block of apartments going forward but I fear that most apartments are just taken over by vulture funds and and REITS and not even an option for the general public


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    #1310
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    An Ri rua wrote: »
    Nothing about the Irish economy matters. No fundamentals apply.
    The world financial markets drive and direct the real world economies, not the other way around.
    Should anything happen to the USD or to access to credit at the upper levels, the demand/supply arguments go out the window.

    Same as 2008 except with bells on. Only a matter of time.

    Looking at the surge in gold prices its seems confidence in the dollar is slipping quickly.


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    #1311
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    SozBbz wrote: »
    Humm...you don't know this though.

    Anecdotally many people took the break regardless of whether they needed it or not. I considered it myself but decided against it.

    You don't know this either...... very few people who took that would admit they were struggling financially. We have a nation of blaggers, all you have to do is look at the type of cars people drive on PCP finance


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    #1312
    Iceman29
    Site Banned Posts: 149 ✭✭Iceman29


    Cyrus wrote: »
    the premise remains the same, buying a house is easier if you sacrifice,

    previous generations were more likely to scarifice than current generations.

    generally now, we want it all, and we want it now.

    For once i agree with you Cyrus. Most first time buyers wouldn't dream of buying a house and doing up one room at a time. This generation want the finished article now.


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    #1313
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,459 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Iceman29 wrote: »
    For once i agree with you Cyrus. Most first time buyers wouldn't dream of buying a house and doing up one room at a time. This generation want the finished article now.

    Redecorating one room at a time? I would bet that almost every single first time buyer does this.

    Have you ever met or spoken to someone who has bought a house?


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    #1314
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Number of price reductions is increasing.

    Big increase tosay on the usual 20 or so average. A lot of people are hoping to get out and want to be ahead of the curve.

    Too late I think.

    Come Autumn, we will have the mother of all reality checks.


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    #1315
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,459 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Number of price reductions is increasing.

    Big increase tosay on the usual 20 or so average. A lot of people are hoping to get out and want to be ahead of the curve.

    Too late I think.

    Come Autumn, we will have the mother of all reality checks.

    If there is less tomorrow, does that indicate that all is going to be grand?

    I mean, you could be right, but isn't your sample size remarkably small to be making such grand statements?


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    #1316
    hi!
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭hi!


    Cyrus wrote: »
    isnt the answer if you are a teacher or nurse get out of dublin?

    you know going in what the salary levels are like and they can offer a decent life outside of dublin. In dublin they are poorly paid jobs.

    At 18 when I started training as a nurse I wasn’t thinking about my ‘poorly’ paid job. I was thinking about a job I had always wanted to do. I suppose maybe that was naive of me.
    I’m not even trying to buy in Dublin- trying in North Kildare but still priced out of most places.

    Also a lot of the big teaching hospitals keep people close to Dublin too.


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    #1317
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    awec wrote: »
    If there is less tomorrow, does that indicate that all is going to be grand?

    I mean, you could be right, but isn't your sample size remarkably small to be making such grand statements?


    I do not think so. The major change has been the 100 per week for the last few months.

    This is reminiscent of the 2008-2010 crash.

    Today's numbers are biggest to date.


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    #1318
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,459 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I do not think so. The major change has been the 100 per week for the last few months.

    This is reminiscent of the 2008-2010 crash.

    Today's numbers are biggest to date.

    What are today's numbers?


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    #1319
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Pelezico wrote: »
    I do not think so. The major change has been the 100 per week for the last few months.

    This is reminiscent of the 2008-2010 crash.

    Today's numbers are biggest to date.

    Except no credit bubble and huge housing over supply...


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    #1320
    MacronvFrugals
    Registered Users Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals


    Quick question, the covid mortgage breaks are they given out even if the bank can see your normal salary coming in?

    My da's a builder but the last 2 months hes flat out with kitchens/ wooden floors this type of work and most people took the break and added few quid they saved to get some work done.


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    #1321
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Except no credit bubble and huge housing over supply...

    We have the deepest deflationary shock in history.

    People are highly geared and the government is highly geared. Just look at today's deficit.

    Big tax rises coming soon.

    So yes...we have a credit bubble.


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