Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

Renjit · 01-08-2020 06:45PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Exactly

We are now averaging 44 cases a day and yet people think because the numbers are low in hospital now that they'll stay that way. That's not how this thing works

Have we not learned from April and May?

Anyhoo, time for some fresh air. This daily thread really is becoming an unreadable jokeshop with all the sugarcoaters

The variable here is the testing and tracing capability. So the numbers detected are close to reality and there is less chance of unknown spread.

But still this is cause for concern. As long as death count remains low, this could still be a new normal.

ACitizenErased · 01-08-2020 06:45PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The cases have been slowly increasing for a while but all the other stats are staying steady. What you said would be a fair point a couple of weeks ago but at this point you'd expect to see an increase in hospital admissions if things were getting out of control.

Who said anything about complacency? I wear a mask when in shops, I keep my distance from people, I avoid places that are allowing big crowds in. All this despite living in a county where there have been a handful of cases in the past month. Is that complacent?

Not everyone who doesn't think the sky is falling is in denial. I get that this is a serious illness, I'm taking precautions, but as far as I can see we're doing very well in this country and I really don't see the need for the constant negativity.

Fantastic post

podgeandrodge · 01-08-2020 06:46PM

spookwoman wrote: »

It doesn't matter if if you feel safe, the regulations say max of 1 3/4 hours. Ever think some other sod would have liked to have had a pint but you were hogging the seat?

I've not experienced this problem, most know if it comes to it that they might have to leave, but later at night it generally isn't an issue as you don't have new arrivals after the food has closed.

spookwoman wrote: »

I are talking about people not adhering to the regs and it's not speculation, he posted he was in a pub for 3 hours

What do you believe the impact of the 3 hours is vis a vis the virus though, compared to 2 hours? Or is it just the face that a rule was broken?

Away With The Fairies · 01-08-2020 06:46PM

If 18 are linked to clusters. What about the other 27 cases?

rob316 · 01-08-2020 06:47PM

The R nought rate is what matters

Renjit · 01-08-2020 06:48PM

rob316 wrote: »

The R nought rate is what matters

It can be a bit flawed.

Vertigo100 · 01-08-2020 06:48PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I reckon we're seeing a Kildare-factory situation in Limerick. Small increases last 3 days, with no reason why. Exact same thing as what happened in Kildare earlier this week.

Limerick started in a creche. 1 child had it. In a pod with 3 others. So the 4 families tested.

ACitizenErased · 01-08-2020 06:49PM

Vertigo100 wrote: »

Limerick started in a creche. 1 child had it. In a pod with 3 others. SO they 4 families tested.

Oh that makes sense, cheers

Boggles · 01-08-2020 06:49PM

rob316 wrote: »

The R nought rate is what matters

The R nought rate can blow me.

About as useful as a solar powered calculator at night.

ACitizenErased · 01-08-2020 06:50PM

Roscommon reached 4 weeks without a case today. Waterford next at 17 days, followed by Carlow and Monaghan at 10.

spookwoman · 01-08-2020 06:53PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I've not experienced this problem, most know if it comes to it that they might have to leave, but later at night it generally isn't an issue as you don't have new arrivals after the food has closed.

What do you believe the impact of the 3 hours is vis a vis the virus though, compared to 2 hours? Or is it just the face that a rule was broken?

The regulations are there for a reason, just like speed limits etc. If people think it's ok to start ignoring them what do you think will happen?

They asked people not to have house parties and guess what some thought oh that doesn't apply to me so lets have a house party. Then we see a rise in cases and clusters.
Do not need to be a rocket scientist to see cause and effect in action.

wowzer · 01-08-2020 06:53PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You do realise that the % of cases that are community transmission has not changed? 33% is the average.

But 33% of a number that gets bigger on a daily basis means there's more and more of a community spread, which is a worry. Or am I completely missing something?

Plumbthedepths · 01-08-2020 06:56PM

Strumms wrote: »

be less of a narrow minded selfish grim fûcker and expand your hobbies.

Will you be taking your own advice?

thelad95 · 01-08-2020 06:57PM

Very predictable patterns as to where large outbreaks are occurring and yet nothing seems to be learned all the while the media and general populace keeps focusing on the Red Herrings of travel and pubs.

We had a factory cluster that increased the known active caseload by over 30% yet there is no outrage and close to zero media coverage, I find this confusing. Something went seriously seriously wrong in that factory, be it the arrangements made for workers, lack of compliance by the workers (and a matching lack of care about this from the employer) or a combination of both, there is serious negligence somewhere and if this is indicative of an industry wide culture, then a few feathers need to be shaken. Hopefully it's enough of a shock to the system that the factory in question is going to lose two weeks of productivity.

I can only imagine the outrage if that cluster had originated in a public house.

GooglePlus · 01-08-2020 06:57PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Come back to me in two weeks

I won't, this isn't a right or wrong bit of craic. Trust me, I'd rather be wrong.

I just think it's mad that we've forgotten how things played out back in March. The exact same thing is happening again but at a slower rate and it is much more containable but it's going up regardless.

ACitizenErased · 01-08-2020 06:58PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I won't, this isn't a right or wrong bit of craic. Trust me, I'd rather be wrong.

I just think it's mad that we've forgotten how things played out back in March. The exact same thing is happening again but at a slower rate and it is much more containable but it's going up regardless.

Over 70% of cases in March were untrackable, you can’t really compare

Ohmeha · 01-08-2020 06:58PM

Average 7 days numbers for the past 3 weeks

No question that this outbreak in Kildare has spiked numbers so the full fall-out will be known better by next week but otherwise <=30 average cases per day would be still a good spot to be in considering substantial re-opening in phase 3 with foreign travel and despite that outbreak we are still running close to that 7 day average

Day Month Date Cases 7 Day
Sunday July 12th 17 18.14
Monday July 13th 11 19.14
Tuesday July 14th 32 20.29
Wednesday July 15th 14 20.71
Thursday July 16th 21 20.43
Friday July 17th 34 21.71
Saturday July 18th 21 21.43
Sunday July 19th 10 20.43
Monday July 20th 6 19.71
Tuesday July 21st 36 20.29
Wednesday July 22nd 17 20.71
Thursday July 23rd 7 18.71
Friday July 24th 20 16.71
Saturday July 25th 24 17.14
Sunday July 26th 12 17.43
Monday July 27th 11 18.14
Tuesday July 28th 40 18.71
Wednesday July 29th 14 18.29
Thursday July 30th 85 29.43
Friday July 31st 38 32.00
Saturday August 1st 45 35.00

Plumbthedepths · 01-08-2020 06:58PM

rob316 wrote: »

The R nought rate is what matters

It's not exact as the Germans found some weeks ago.

JP Liz V1 · 01-08-2020 06:59PM

ongarite wrote: »

Still >25% of daily cases are health care workers.
Baffling at this stage IMO.
By end of year nearly every health care workers could have had COVID.

Yes high cases still for healthcare workers, the frontline heroes

maebee · 01-08-2020 06:59PM

Vertigo100 wrote: »

Limerick started in a creche. 1 child had it. In a pod with 3 others. SO they 4 families tested.

Yes. My son's GF works in a creche in Limerick City and they were told this earlier in the week.

JP Liz V1 · 01-08-2020 07:02PM

Vertigo100 wrote: »

Limerick started in a creche. 1 child had it. In a pod with 3 others. SO they 4 families tested.

How did the child get it?

The positive cases seem to be getting younger

Strumms · 01-08-2020 07:02PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Will you be taking your own advice?

I don’t really need to, plenty to be getting on with, not a pub ‘obsessive’ either, thanks

podgeandrodge · 01-08-2020 07:03PM

spookwoman wrote: »

The regulations are there for a reason, just like speed limits etc. If people think it's ok to start ignoring them what do you think will happen?

They asked people not to have house parties and guess what some thought oh that doesn't apply to me so lets have a house party. Then we see a rise in cases and clusters.
Do not need to be a rocket scientist to see cause and effect in action.

I get you're annoyed about the breach, but I had asked you where you perceived the risk between 2 hours and 3 hours in a pub?

Plumbthedepths · 01-08-2020 07:04PM

Strumms wrote: »

I don’t really need to, plenty to be getting on with, not a pub ‘obsessive’ either, thanks

Hopefully we too can aspire to perfection.

lukas8888 · 01-08-2020 07:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There we go, the anti-pub comment in response to non-pub related clusters, right on time

Who would have thought that Boards would emerge as a nursery for new PTAA members.Before you head to google Pioneer Total Abstinence Association.

stephenjmcd · 01-08-2020 07:05PM

Jimi H wrote: »

I haven’t been following the thread but heard on the radio this morning that a number of those that had tested positive had not been self isolating. Any info on this? Some difficult decisions ahead.

No mention of those testing postive not isolating. What was said was those presenting with covid like symptoms to GPs hadn't been isolating prior to visiting the GP

Always_Running · 01-08-2020 07:06PM

The 7 day average is now 35 cases a day. The highest weekly average we have had since the first week of June. In good news only 4 deaths in the last 2 weeks and numbers in hospital remains low hopefully it stays that way for the weeks and months ahead.

GooglePlus · 01-08-2020 07:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Over 70% of cases in March were untrackable, you can’t really compare

That's why I said at a slower rate.

It only takes a small number of people to fall out of the reach of our amazing tracing system.

spookwoman · 01-08-2020 07:08PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I get you're annoyed about the breach, but I had asked you where you perceived the risk between 2 hours and 3 hours in a pub?

Not a medical expert so I cannot say why they chose 1 3/4 hours instead of 2 or 3.
But as I keep saying doesn't matter about the amount of time they ignored the regs. But people seem to think the 2-3 hours is more important or just have nothing better to do with their time than arguing for the sake of it.

ACitizenErased · 01-08-2020 07:09PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

That's why I said at a slower rate.

It only takes a small number of people to fall out of the reach of our amazing tracing system.

The number of community transmissions out of total is actually 2-3% down (33% total, 30% last 3 days) so we’re not seeing any sort of increase in that

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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