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Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

  • 27-07-2020 11:04am
    #1
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,289 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    This is the thirteenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

    I appreciate that the end of the Brexit Transition Period is or may be in sight (insofar as one can be certain) but please bear the following in mind before posting:
    • Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
    • Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
    • Please do not be uncivil to other posters
    • Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary
    • Discussion of Sinn Féin's longstanding policy of abstention from Westminster is not suitable for this thread. Posts on this subject may be deleted

    Previous thread is here:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058025860


«134567…195

Comments

  • #2
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Triskaidekaphobia is real!

    Given how things have gone since January, until the summer I thought we'd get the end of the transition period out of the last thread.

    ---

    What sort of timetable are the talks at now with all of the messing about from the UK side?


  • #3
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Triskaidekaphobia is real!

    Given how things have gone since January, until the summer I thought we'd get the end of the transition period out of the last thread.

    ---

    What sort of timetable are the talks at now with all of the messing about from the UK side?
    We'll be upto M before this saga is over!


  • #4
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,333 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Triskaidekaphobia is real!

    Given how things have gone since January, until the summer I thought we'd get the end of the transition period out of the last thread.

    ---

    What sort of timetable are the talks at now with all of the messing about from the UK side?
    Bluster until October, panic in November and extension of current BRINO in December I'd guess.


  • #5
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    What sort of timetable are the talks at now with all of the messing about from the UK side?
    Tight, progressing confidently towards sphincter-tight, with little significant developments expected before it gets to needle eye-tight...

    ...and with an aftermath commensurate with the whirring fan awaiting nearby.


  • #6
    Pablo Escobar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 654 ✭✭✭Pablo Escobar


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Triskaidekaphobia is real!

    Given how things have gone since January, until the summer I thought we'd get the end of the transition period out of the last thread.

    ---

    What sort of timetable are the talks at now with all of the messing about from the UK side?

    The EU negotiates in a very consistent manner. It's a 3 week cycle. 1-Preparation, 2-negotiations, 3-briefings. Rinse and repeat. If things don't get done during negotiations, then there's another 3 week wait. The UK have been trying to make them budge on this for a while, but they literally have no leverage.

    The UK are either going to agree with pretty much everything (with regard to level playing field etc.) or nothing at all. Much of the EU are beyond caring at this stage. It just needs to be seen through.

    And even if there is a FTA agreement at this point, it's still going to be pretty bare. It'll be a long way from the way it was.


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  • #7
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Not directly Brexit related, but a sign of things to come WRT international trade.
    Another global brand retreating back to their home market.
    Negotiating trade deals become harder when your potential partner start clearing the shelves.
    https://www.am-online.com/news/manufacturer/2020/07/27/mitsubishi-motors-in-the-uk-shares-unexpected-market-withdrawal-plan-with-dealers
    Mitsubishi Motors in the UK has written to its UK franchised retail partners to inform them of the Japanese car manufacturer's plan to exit the UK and European new car markets.
    Long-time UK importer, the Cirencester-based Colt Car Company said that it would attempt to accelerate its plan to bring other emerging brands into the UK to replace the space left vacant by Mitsubishi after it announced this morning (July 27) that it would freeze the introduction of new models into Europe with immediate effect.


  • #8
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,964 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Much of the EU are beyond caring at this stage. It just needs to be seen through.
    Yes, you could see that the prime focus was not on Brexit at the recent talks.


  • #9
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,104 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Not directly Brexit related, but a sign of things to come WRT international trade.
    Another global brand retreating back to their home market.
    Negotiating trade deals become harder when your potential partner start clearing the shelves.

    Mitsubishi cars have extremely poor sales in Europe including the UK. Frankly I'm more surprised they are still selling cars at all. They are on the back foot and will be even more so in the EV world if they don't start lighting some fires.


  • #10
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,535 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Mod mote:

    Polish discussion moved across the Elbe:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058095464


  • #11
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,085 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    listermint wrote: »
    Mitsubishi cars have extremely poor sales in Europe including the UK. Frankly I'm more surprised they are still selling cars at all. They are on the back foot and will be even more so in the EV world if they don't start lighting some fires.

    The Outlander PHEV was doing well I had thought. Not Qashqai well, but well enough to give them a boost.


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  • #12
    eire4
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,767 ✭✭✭eire4


    trellheim wrote: »
    Yes, you could see that the prime focus was not on Brexit at the recent talks.

    and it makes sense. The pandemic is clearly the major issue facing the EU at the moment and will get the attention that entails and rightly so.


  • #13
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,890 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Well, whaddyaknow - Brexit making life difficult for the Channel Tunnel (despite the existence of an international treaty signed by the UK to make things work). From the Guardian:
    The European commission has this week asked the European parliament and the European council to officially mandate France to urgently negotiate a new bilateral deal with the UK giving the ECJ the powers to resolve future disputes between the two countries as “union law would not longer be applicable to the part of the channel fixed link under the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom” after Brexit.

    Unless there is an overarching deal with one body responsible for legal disputes regarding the entire 30-mile (50km) tunnel there will be chaos, insiders say.

    “It would mean train drivers would have to have two sets of qualifications to drive on the British and French side of the tunnel. It would affect how you operate the tunnel with potential for divergence in the future on everything from signalling, voltage, the radio systems, the signalling system, ventilation, hydraulics. It would be like driving on the left- and right-hand side of the road at the same time,” said a source.

    The EU’s plan to keep the ECJ as an arbiter in disputes will be anathema to Downing Street. ...

    Catherine Barnard, professor of EU law at Cambridge, thinks “it is going to be very difficult to exclude the ECJ unless we have such a thin trade deal that it’s not worth the paper it’s written on with no principles of EU law engaged at all”.

    I see, at the end of the article, a "senior UK official involved in the talks" has suggested a Swiss-style pick-and-mix solution - something the EU has said they will never, ever, ever agree to again, given all the problems they've had with Switzerland over the years!


  • #14
    reslfj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    Well, whaddyaknow - Brexit making life difficult for the Channel Tunnel (despite the existence of an international treaty signed by the UK to make things work).

    How is it today?

    Isn't the trains from London to Paris or Brussels operated by the same personnel all the way i.e in both the UK, France (and Belgium) ?

    Is it one pool of Eurostar trains with mixed nationalities ? or are there UK trains and French trains?
    CelticRambler wrote: »
    "senior UK official involved in the talks" has suggested a Swiss-style pick-and-mix solution - something the EU has said they will never, ever, ever agree to again, given all the problems they've had with Switzerland over the years!

    Nice try - Mr/Ms "senior UK official" - but the answer will forever be a NO in huge capital letters.

    The UK is a small country with a very corona-sick economy and a national debt already above 100% of its (corona-free) GDP.
    And yet the UK continues to play games despite its overwhelming weakness.

    The UK should realise that the ditch of Boris is deep, wet, cold, dirty and will last much longer than the corona is expected to.

    Most UK citizens will rather not die in this ditch - I guess - and this requires some fast "Yes Sir" UK-answers to "the 5 floor" in Brussels.

    Lars :)


  • #15
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 40,289 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Looks like any trade deal with China may be one-sided...
    China's ambassador to London has accused the UK of "seriously poisoning" relations between the countries - and warned it would "pay the price" if it shunned Beijing.

    Referring to disputes over Hong Kong, tech giant Huawei and alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Liu Xiaoming said the UK was at a "critical historical juncture" in how it wanted to treat China.
    https://news.sky.com/story/china-says-uk-has-poisoned-relations-and-will-pay-the-price-if-it-shuns-beijing-12039070


  • #16
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,890 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    reslfj wrote: »
    How is it today?

    Isn't the trains from London to Paris or Brussels operated by the same personnel all the way i.e in both the UK, France (and Belgium) ?

    Is it one pool of Eurostar trains with mixed nationalities ? or are there UK trains and French trains?

    Not entirely sure whether or not your question is rhetorical, but for the sake of others who don't know, the Canterbury Treaty provided for a tightly defined area of joint and reciprocal sovereignty, so the current operation is about as truly European as you'll find anywhere in the continent. Under EU rules, anyone can apply to run trains on the network, but under Eurotunnel rules, only trains complying with their stringent safety standards can be used, and only the French, Belgian and British rail companies ever bought compliant rolling stock.

    At the moment, when you board a train, you don't know whether it's owned by a British, French or Belgian operator, and you probably won't notice that the in-tunnel mobile networks are operated by French companies in one tunnel and British companies in another, just as you don't really realise when you go through check-in at Coquelles, that you've administratively entered the UK, even if you can still smell the baguettes being baked in the terminal building ...

    And therein lies all the trouble ahead. If you're boarding a train in Folkestone, will you be allowed bring your ham sandwich on board? Can we trust the British not to downgrade safety standards so that the Chinese can run trains to Paris? Will you find that you pay roaming charges if you use your phone in the North Tunnel, but not in the South? And if you've got a car full of mixed EU and GB nationalities, where do those without a visa wait for a lift home while everyone else continues their journey ...?


  • #17
    Geuze
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,717 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    reslfj wrote: »
    How is it today?

    Isn't the trains from London to Paris or Brussels operated by the same personnel all the way i.e in both the UK, France (and Belgium) ?

    Is it one pool of Eurostar trains with mixed nationalities ? or are there UK trains and French trains?

    Eurostar run trains from London to Paris, to Bruss, sometimes to Marseilles.

    Same crew all the way, it's 1h50 to Bruss, 2h15 to Paris.


    Note that a different firm run the shuttle trains, that go from portal to portal, carrying cars and trucks.


  • #18
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,788 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    New talks have been scheduled up to October.

    Brexit talks scheduled just in time for key EU October summit
    Britain and the EU have planned more trade negotiations all the way until Oct. 2, less than a fortnight before a summit where the bloc hopes to endorse any agreement with London, according to a schedule published by British negotiators on Friday.

    More than four years after Britons voted to leave the EU, and after tortuous divorce talks, the two sides are negotiating on all aspects of their future ties, from trade to security to transport, from 2021 onwards.

    The EU has said negotiators must seal any deal by October to allow for ratification by the bloc’s 27 nations. The EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has since, however, signalled room for some slippage.

    In other news, remember the Russia Report about Russian nationals with money using their influence with politicians? You will never guess who has been given a place in the House of Lords.

    Johnson peerage for Lebedev crowns mutually beneficial friendship
    Boris Johnson has never made any secret of his enduring friendship with Evgeny Lebedev, the Russian-born newspaper owner with a reputation for throwing decadent parties.

    He has just been less keen to discuss what happens at these glamorous events, many of which have taken place at Lebedev’s restored castle in Perugia, Italy.

    The pair first got to know each other in 2009 when Lebedev, then a man-about-town in his late 20s and best known in the tabloids for dating Joely Richardson and Geri Haliwell, bought the London Evening Standard with the help of his father, Alexander, a former KGB agent.

    Lebedev, advised by the future Daily Mail editor Geordie Greig, decided to turn London’s biggest newspaper into a freesheet, giving him substantial influence over the capital’s politics. As a result Johnson, as mayor, was a regular social guest of Lebedev, aware of the influence of the hundreds of thousands of Evening Standards strewn over the commuter network.

    Nothing to worry about here guys, just the son of a KGB agent now being in the House of Lords on the back of his friendship with the Prime Minister.


  • #19
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Do they even know how to spell corruption?


  • #20
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Plenty in Private Eye going back at least 8 or 9 years about Lebedev. It's funny seeing the names that have come up since Brexit. So much is in the public realm but not widely reported until a few years after they've gotten the result they want.


  • #21
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    Something something unelected elites running the place

    I think that is Brussels you are thinking of, with their unelected bureaucrats, with their gold plated pensions and expenses.

    This lot have solid gold salaries, solid gold pensions and solid gold expenses, plus a bit of useful information on the inside as well.

    How do they get away with it?


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  • #22
    Gerry T
    Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    Sam Russell wrote:
    I think that is Brussels you are thinking of, with their unelected bureaucrats, with their gold plated pensions and expenses.

    Sam Russell wrote:
    This lot have solid gold salaries, solid gold pensions and solid gold expenses, plus a bit of useful information on the inside as well.

    Sam Russell wrote:
    I think that is Brussels you are thinking of, with their unelected bureaucrats, with their gold plated pensions and expenses.

    Sam Russell wrote:
    This lot have solid gold salaries, solid gold pensions and solid gold expenses, plus a bit of useful information on the inside as well.

    Sam Russell wrote:
    How do they get away with it?


    Do you know the main houses of the EU and how they get their jobs. In basic summary their all from elected people or nominated by those elected.
    Now how does the house of Lords work ? And whats this recent news with boris and a Russian mate.


  • #23
    Roanmore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,801 ✭✭✭Roanmore


    Gerry T wrote: »
    Do you know the main houses of the EU and how they get their jobs. In basic summary their all from elected people or nominated by those elected.
    Now how does the house of Lords work ? And whats this recent news with boris and a Russian mate.

    Think he was being sarcastic


  • #24
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Gerry T wrote: »
    Do you know the main houses of the EU and how they get their jobs. In basic summary their all from elected people or nominated by those elected.
    Now how does the house of Lords work ? And whats this recent news with boris and a Russian mate.

    I think you should look back at my earlier posts. Or even re-read the post you are quoting. Can you not see the tone of it?

    I in no way am suggesting that the UK House of Lords is other than a bastion of undeserved privileged wasters full of their own self-importance, and that the current Tory party are not heavily invested in corruption of one form or another. That they are able to get away with it is only a result in a journalism absence in all the main media outlets that includes the once world leading BBC, now reduced to be the UK equivalent of Pravda.

    On the other hand, the EU bureaucrats are fewer in number than the number of customs officers required to be employed by the UK Gov following the likely no-deal.

    Talk about getting the wrong end of the stick.


  • #25
    Hermy
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,421 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I think you should look back at my earlier posts.

    In fairness to Gerry T I was going to do just that too when first I read your post as it had just the right amount of sarcasm to leave one wondering is it really a Brexiter or just someone pretending to be one. And I should know better - I've been here for three years.:o

    Genealogy Forum Mod



  • #26
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Hermy wrote: »
    In fairness to Gerry T I was going to do just that too when first I read your post as it had just the right amount of sarcasm to leave one wondering is it really a Brexiter or just someone pretending to be one. And I should know better - I've been here for three years.:o

    I think that the difference between 'gold plated' and 'solid gold' should alert the dimmest to who has the greatest amount wrested from the public purse.

    As I implied, the British press and media cannot even spell 'corruption', and the Tories know it.


  • #27
    Gerry T
    Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    Roanmore wrote:
    Think he was being sarcastic


    Agh !


  • #28
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,469 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I think that the difference between 'gold plated' and 'solid gold' should alert the dimmest to who has the greatest amount wrested from the public purse.

    As I implied, the British press and media cannot even spell 'corruption', and the Tories know it.
    They wasted £11.8 million on a Covid app that was cancelled long after they were told it was a dead duck due to things like privacy issues.

    A working Covid app costs £11m less, and that includes releasing the source the code.


    NHSX, the health service technology unit responsible for the government’s failed contact-tracing app, attempted to block rival apps to protect its own, hampering efforts to track the early spread of the coronavirus



    But that's all chicken feed compared to
    Coronavirus: Government has set aside £10bn for test and trace system for England
    The sum, much of it going on contracts with private firms like Serco and G4S, amounts to more than 100 times Public Health England’s £90 million annual budget for infectious diseases and was described as “extraordinary” by a member of the Independent Sage group of scientists.

    Lets be clear, the companies lining up for this money have a dismal track record. Their previous track records have included data leaks, failures/fraud and death.
    Luckily they remembered to donate to the party.


    Brexit will mean the UK can make up rules as it goes along instead of having to adhere to EU standards. The huge one will be when the EU starts closing off the tax loopholes of the UK protectorates.


  • #29
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,996 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Covid has hidden Brexit now.


  • #30
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,469 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Covid has hidden Brexit now.
    That's the problem. They will railroad Brexit through regardless of the consequences to the great British public. Fait Accompli

    LOTS of stuff unsorted with 5 months to go
    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0729/1156269-eu-watchdog-tells-uk-banks-to-get-ready-for-full-brexit/
    Banks using Britain as a gateway to the European Union must fully execute their plans for serving EU customers before a Brexit transition period ends in December, the EU's banking watchdog said today.
    ...

    There is no mechanism for direct EU access in deposits or loans from January.


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  • #31
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Kate Hoey... Peerage.

    I just can't.


  • #32
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,621 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Kate Hoey... Peerage.

    I just can't.

    It's just all that's wrong with politics at the moment. It's no wonder so many people are disenfranchised with the political system.


  • #33
    Gerry T
    Registered Users Posts: 1,446 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    Sam Russell wrote:
    I think you should look back at my earlier posts. Or even re-read the post you are quoting. Can you not see the tone of it?


    Yea I should know better, have been following this from the start, missed the tone.


  • #34
    Hermy
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,421 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    I think that the difference between 'gold plated' and 'solid gold' should alert the dimmest to who has the greatest amount wrested from the public purse.

    As I implied, the British press and media cannot even spell 'corruption', and the Tories know it.

    I hope you're not suggesting I'm among the dimmest - I try my best to keep up.

    It was the first line about Brussels that had me doing a double take.

    Genealogy Forum Mod



  • #35
    looksee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,773 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Have to say the difference between 'gold plated' and 'solid gold' was a bit subtle for me too :D. There again, I would not claim to be the most astute student of politics, though I do try to keep up!


  • #36
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    They wasted £11.8 million on a Covid app that was cancelled long after they were told it was a dead duck due to things like privacy issues.

    A working Covid app costs £11m less, and that includes releasing the source the code.


    NHSX, the health service technology unit responsible for the government’s failed contact-tracing app, attempted to block rival apps to protect its own, hampering efforts to track the early spread of the coronavirus



    But that's all chicken feed compared to
    Coronavirus: Government has set aside £10bn for test and trace system for England

    Lets be clear, the companies lining up for this money have a dismal track record. Their previous track records have included data leaks, failures/fraud and death.
    Luckily they remembered to donate to the party.


    Brexit will mean the UK can make up rules as it goes along instead of having to adhere to EU standards. The huge one will be when the EU starts closing off the tax loopholes of the UK protectorates.

    Yes, there is plenty of evidence of corrupt practices going on in the UK/Tory Government.

    Now, here is the question - Why is no one crying STOP.

    When Covid started, there was a global rush for ventilators, and fortunately for us, 50% of world supply are/were made in Ireland.

    So the UK tried to get one made locally and enlisted the assistance of Dyson - a well known maker of ventilators vacuum cleaners. They awarded them a huge contract to develop one, but refused to get GoPro, another vacuum cleaner manufacturer, to try their hand at making a ventilator despite them having similar expertise. [Dyson is a heavy donor to the Tories, which GoPro is not.

    Now the chances of any company producing a safe, and certified, ventilator within a couple of years is minuscule to zero, but the chances of a Tory donor getting a lucrative contract from the Gov is huge, even when their experience is minuscule, and their chance of success is zero.

    For example, if they wanted to give a ferry contract to a ferry company, you would think that they would check that the ferry company did in fact own a ferry or two. You would also check the companies office to see how long they had been operating and how successful they had been in the previous five years - just to make sure they were not a shelf company that had never traded and had copied their terms and conditions from a pizza delivery company.

    You would think that, but you would be wrong. Why did they spend £11.8 million on a contact tracing app that did not work when we spent €800k on one that does?

    Where are the journalists?

    Brexit is getting closer, and the problems are already starting. Even without corruption, they are in trouble, but with it, lives will be lost.


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  • #37
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Hermy wrote: »
    I hope you're not suggesting I'm among the dimmest - I try my best to keep up.

    It was the first line about Brussels that had me doing a double take.

    I was using the Brexit speak - in London, the sherpas (those who do the detailed work) are called 'Loyal Civil Servants', but the Brexiteers refer the the Brussels equivalent as 'Unelected Bureaucrats'.
    looksee wrote: »
    Have to say the difference between 'gold plated' and 'solid gold' was a bit subtle for me too :D. There again, I would not claim to be the most astute student of politics, though I do try to keep up!

    Just be careful when buying jewellery. :)


  • #38
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,890 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Brexit prompts refugee-level immigration ... of Brits, to the EU! Two interpretations of the same report:

    From the Guardian: Brexit fuels brain drain as skilled Britons head to the EU
    the study found that UK migrants are among the most educated and skilled of those from any nation, with one of the highest net average income rates, suggesting that Brexit has begun a steady drain of the most talented and productive people to the continent.

    The authors, in an academic guest blog: More Britons willing to leave UK to escape Brexit uncertainty
    While the legal consequences of Brexit remain so uncertain, people ... are making serious sacrifices and taking often big risks to do whatever they can to mitigate the pending impact of Brexit on their lives.

    The Guardian article concludes with this bitter-sweet quote, particularly ironic in the context of one particular Brexiter bogeyman:
    Co-author Daniel Tetlow added: “We’re observing a new social migration phenomenon and a redefining of what it means to be British-European. In 2019, Brits came in just behind Turks in numbers receiving German citizenship


  • #39
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    That brain drain was always going to ramp up once Brexit became irreversible, and never less so than once British politics went full-on Trumpian from last December.

    I remember long and fastidious arguments about this anticipated Brexit consequence, with 'Project Fear'-touting Brexit supporters, both online and IRL before the 2016 referendum.

    For the population segment concerned (tertiary-educated, in-demand skill-set, centrist politics), Brexit would be bringing socio-economic changes and closing too many opportunities on the negative side of the life equation, to outweigh any positives which Brexit might provide to entice them to stay in the UK.

    After Covid, that population segment has now seen that the Brexit-pushing governance is killing people in their tens of thousands.


  • #40
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    ambro25 wrote: »
    That brain drain was always going to ramp up once Brexit became irreversible, and never less so than once British politics went full-on Trumpian from last December.

    I remember long and fastidious arguments about this anticipated Brexit consequence, with 'Project Fear'-touting Brexit supporters, both online and IRL before the 2016 referendum.

    For the population segment concerned (tertiary-educated, in-demand skill-set, centrist politics), Brexit would be bringing socio-economic changes and closing too many opportunities on the negative side of the life equation, to outweigh any positives which Brexit might provide to entice them to stay in the UK.

    After Covid, that population segment has now seen that the Brexit-pushing governance is killing people in their tens of thousands.

    Also, time is running out.

    The rules may change irrevocably on 1st Jan 2001. Qualifications may no longer be recognised, current employment may disappear, etc.


  • #41
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,543 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Also, time is running out.

    The rules may change irrevocably on 1st Jan 2001. Qualifications may no longer be recognised, current employment may disappear, etc.

    I would have thought that it was already too late, no? Not even qualifications-wise but Britain is no longer in the EU. Surely, European employers wouldn't want to risk hiring people that may not have legal right to live and work in the EU27 come January.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • #42
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I would have thought that it was already too late, no? Not even qualifications-wise but Britain is no longer in the EU. Surely, European employers wouldn't want to risk hiring people that may not have legal right to live and work in the EU27 come January.

    Probably, but the report was of Brits getting German passports, so they would have the right to work. Not sure about qualifications though.


  • #43
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,890 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Every country has some kind of qualifications review board that has the power to recognise/validate qualifications earned outside of their jurisdiction. Sometimes that means just sitting a complementary exam, sometimes engaging in "top-up" training. I would think that any Brit with EU citizenship and a degree from the Before Times would have their qualification recognised as equivalent on the grounds that it was at the time it was awarded ... once they'd paid the #TakeBackControl fee, of course.


  • #44
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,862 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    CelticRambler wrote: »
    Every country has some kind of qualifications review board that has the power to recognise/validate qualifications earned outside of their jurisdiction. Sometimes that means just sitting a complementary exam, sometimes engaging in "top-up" training. I would think that any Brit with EU citizenship and a degree from the Before Times would have their qualification recognised as equivalent on the grounds that it was at the time it was awarded ... once they'd paid the #TakeBackControl fee, of course.

    I think there maybe non-tariff barriers erected - like the requirement for Irish here for primary school teachers. It will become apparent on New Years Day and thereafter.


  • #45
    reslfj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I would have thought that it was already too late, no? Not even qualifications-wise but Britain is no longer in the EU. Surely, European employers wouldn't want to risk hiring people that may not have legal right to live and work in the EU27 come January.

    The WA has been ratified.

    https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:C:2019:384I:FULL&from=EN
    Article 10
    Personal scope
    1. Without prejudice to Title III, this Part shall apply to the following persons:
    ...
    (b) United Kingdom nationals who exercised their right to reside in a Member State in accordance with Union law before the end of the transition period and continue to reside there thereafter;
    ....
    ....
    2. Persons falling under points (a) and (b) of Article 3(2) of Directive 2004/38/EC whose residence was facilitated by the host State in accordance with its national legislation before the end of the transition period in accordance with Article 3(2) of that Directive shall retain their right of residence in the host State in accordance with this Part, provided that they continue to reside in the host State thereafter.

    I think the key words here are: "before the end of the the transition period", "retain their right of residence" and "provided that they continue to reside in the host State thereafter."

    As I understand the text: FoM will not continue, and the UK citizen must stay/work in the same chosen EU27 country after Jan 2021.
    But their rights within that EU27 country will continue.

    Lars :)


  • #46
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Force Majeure will be invoked in many of these circumstances, to stop the wheels coming off.
    For example today there are many thousands of cars driving without NCT certificates due to the closure of the NCT testing facilities, the same will happen to the recognition of qualifications etc.

    Otherwise there will be chaos, and who want's that!


  • #47
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,676 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Force Majeure will be invoked in many of these circumstances, to stop the wheels coming off.
    For example today there are many thousands of cars driving without NCT certificates due to the closure of the NCT testing facilities, the same will happen to the recognition of qualifications etc.

    Otherwise there will be chaos, and who want's that!
    It's not really the same situation. It's simply impossible to get an NCT inspection when the inspection centres are not operating. But it's perfectly possible, if troublesome and expensive, for a person with non-EU qualifications to get them recognised and validated for use in the EU, and people in this sitatuion will have had more than a year's notice of the need to do this.

    Nearly a year ago, the EU published details of the temporary accommodations it would make in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I'd suggest that's a pretty good indicator of the (maximum) temporary accommodations that it will make if the UK exits transition without a deal. Anything that isn't covered off in the Withdrawal Agreement, and that wouldn't have been covered off under the no-deal notices, you should assume will be a problem. There's no doctrine of force majeure in Irish law, and in EU law its a very limited concept which doesn't cover this situation.


  • #48
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,469 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    reslfj wrote: »
    As I understand the text: FoM will not continue, and the UK citizen must stay/work in the same chosen EU27 country after Jan 2021.
    But their rights within that EU27 country will continue.

    Lars :)
    I'd see it that way too.

    It's been pointed before that places like Germany don't allow dual citizenship. And as non-EU movement is controlled by each country that will mean a UK citizen living in Germany will need a visa just to visit the neighbouring country for holiday.

    Spain is similar, dual citizenship is more or less limited to citizens of Spanish speaking countries.

    And it's important because if you have to hand over UK citizenship you'll need a visa to go back home. And getting your UK citizenship ain't cheap or even certain.


  • #49
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Also, time is running out.

    The rules may change irrevocably on 1st Jan 2001. Qualifications may no longer be recognised, current employment may disappear, etc.
    Time running out is indeed an accelerating factor. But it won't be appreciated by many, until stats begin to show it, expectedly sometime in 2021.

    Qualifications will no longer be *automatically* recognised under the long & well-established EU/EEA principles. As CelticRambler pointed out, EU27 member states usually have their own internal statutes, rules, review boards, etc. for determining equivalence of 3rd party country qualifications, and there is a reasonable chance that hitherto-recognised UK qualifications, deemed EU-grade for some decades, would continue to be recognised without too much hassle...

    ...but then, subject to this Brexit-introduced concept of *reciprocity* of course

    And in that respect, at least some in the UK are finally waking up to the situation and looking to erect self-preserving professional walls where, historically, there were none. The UKIPO just started consultations last week, about the removal of 'EEA' in some patent & trademark statutes and, importantly, the ramifications of same on EU27 firms and attorneys, particularly their capacity to continue acting as address for service at the UKIPO.

    Not unexpected at all (after all, the EUIPO is kicking all Brits out on 1.1.21; I expect that so will the Irish patent office under Sections 107 & 108 Irish Patents Act 1992 as amended by SI 579). But maybe indicative of where that particular debate/issue is going.


  • #50
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,994 ✭✭✭ambro25


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I would have thought that it was already too late, no? Not even qualifications-wise but Britain is no longer in the EU. Surely, European employers wouldn't want to risk hiring people that may not have legal right to live and work in the EU27 come January.
    European (-27) employers haven't been too keen on Brit applicants since Article 50 was invoked.

    This has been well-documented in several mainstream articles since 2017 (mostly in the Guardian, unsurprisingly), and a plethora of personal testimonies collated by pro-Remain 'expats' lobby groups like The3Million, BritsInEU, etc. besides testimonial projects like the InLimbo / InLimboToo group.

    My wife has experienced it in the past couple of years, and some of our acquaintances amongst the network of school parents also have.


  • #51
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,543 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    ambro25 wrote: »
    European (-27) employers haven't been too keen on Brit applicants since Article 50 was invoked.

    This has been well-documented in several mainstream articles since 2017 (mostly in the Guardian, unsurprisingly), and a plethora of personal testimonies collated by pro-Remain 'expats' lobby groups like The3Million, BritsInEU, etc. besides testimonial projects like the InLimbo / InLimboToo group.

    My wife has experienced it in the past couple of years, and some of our acquaintances amongst the network of school parents also have.

    My understanding, and I'm open to correction as has happened above is that until the end of the year, as things currently stand any UK citizen can simply move to the EU with or without a job pre-arranged and have indefinite right to live, work and otherwise remain there.

    Presumably, the reulctance to hire British people you describe above is down to the uncertainty over the Anglo-European negotiations and the lack of reason to take heart in them. It doesn't make a great deal of sense to me for employers to be reluctant to hire skilled Brits if they can move to the continent before the end of December.

    I personally wouldn't have thought that there'd be much room in Europe for non-native speakers to be honest. I work in science and the likes of the EMBO laboratories in Heidelberg would be a viable option with my skillset but that's quite niche.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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