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Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

1…312313314315317

Comments

  • #9482
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,630 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If the Conservatives had gotten to the December 2019 GE without a deal ready to go, i.e. going into it on a no-deal platform, would they have returned a majority in the Commons?

    If no, then there must surely by a huge amount of voters feeling utterly betrayed by the Tories at this moment.


  • #9483
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,097 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    briany wrote: »
    If the Conservatives had gotten to the December 2019 GE without a deal ready to go, i.e. going into it on a no-deal platform, would they have returned a majority in the Commons?

    If no, then there must surely by a huge amount of voters feeling utterly betrayed by the Tories at this moment.

    Maybe, but they're preoccupied with dying relatives, loss of jobs, income and self respect, and the knowledge that their government continues to make a shambles of everything and lies to them. The Brexit reality won't sink in overnight - maybe not being able to easily take the pets to the continent might make some realize it, but they're out of work, and generally screwed anyway, so what if the planes can't land in Europe, they're not going there anyway. And if the fisheries all fall apart, hey, there'll always be something at the chipper, might be swill from the US or whatever, with enough malt vinegar you won't notice the taste.

    They're screwed now. It's not going to get better, and Brexit will make it worse but not overnight. By the time it does, the Project Leave hooligans will have pocketed their millions and fecked off to whatever islands they're buying.

    British politics is a joke. When Labor needed to be proactive and challenge Brexit, they meeped away and couldn't stop gazing at their own navels. Unfortunately, unlike WWII, there'll be no international consortium of allies to help out the UK this time. They're going to be the crippled old man of Europe for the forseeable future, especially in the presence of a No Deal Brexit, which is what the government is moving towards.

    If somehow they throw the Tories out, what will Labor be able to do? Call off Brexit? No. Rejoin the EU - maybe eventually, with big changes to the UK as a result, like moving into the Eurozone.


  • #9484
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,045 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    briany wrote: »
    If the Conservatives had gotten to the December 2019 GE without a deal ready to go, i.e. going into it on a no-deal platform, would they have returned a majority in the Commons?

    If no, then there must surely by a huge amount of voters feeling utterly betrayed by the Tories at this moment.

    Your first question is tough to answer. Personally I'd say they'd have a similar makeup to the Cameron or May government; slim/C&S majority. Corbyn was spectacularly unpopular and his Brexit policy of having no policy convinced nobody so there'd be no chance of a Labour win.

    As for your second point; this whole ordeal has consisted of Brexiters whitewashing the past and retroactively changing what they apparently voted for at various times against all evidence to the contrary. "Oven ready deal" was simply the latest buzzphrase concocted by the chief brexiters to help edge the UK closer to any brexit so that they can try to bring about the all pros no cons Brexit they envisage in the future.

    Instead of betrayal, what you'll find is many voters now claiming they actually voted for no-deal back in December.


  • #9485
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,630 ✭✭✭✭briany


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    Your first question is tough to answer. Personally I'd say they'd have a similar makeup to the Cameron or May government; slim/C&S majority. Corbyn was spectacularly unpopular and his Brexit policy of having no policy convinced nobody so there'd be no chance of a Labour win.

    As for your second point; this whole ordeal has consisted of Brexiters whitewashing the past and retroactively changing what they apparently voted for at various times against all evidence to the contrary. "Oven ready deal" was simply the latest buzzphrase concocted by the chief brexiters to help edge the UK closer to any brexit so that they can try to bring about the all pros no cons Brexit they envisage in the future.

    Instead of betrayal, what you'll find is many voters now claiming they actually voted for no-deal back in December.

    You'd get a lot of Brexiteers who thought the EU would agree a fantastic trade in mere months now saying that they voted for no-deal. As for the others who genuinely wanted a sensible compromise, and have enough wisdom to know no-deal is madness, I don't know. There must be some discrepancy between the no-deal platform and deal platforms if you predict the former would have delivered numbers similar to May's result, and the latter bringing in a thumping majority, and I suspect it lies in moderates who just wanted the whole business over with (or so they thought it would be).


  • #9486
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,414 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    briany wrote: »
    YThere must be some discrepancy between the no-deal platform and deal platforms if you predict the former would have delivered numbers similar to May's result, and the latter bringing in a thumping majority, and I suspect it lies in moderates who just wanted the whole business over with (or so they thought it would be).

    From my relatively distant position, it seems to me that the discrepancy is more between where people think we are in the process. Somewhat paradoxically, the hard-core Brexiters can't quite come to terms with the fact that the UK has left and things aren't really all that different; while the moderates think it's all over and everything's very much the same as before.

    Both groups are sort-of-right and sort-of-wrong, and I think both camps are going to slowly come to separate uncomfortable realisations from next year onwards. The hard-core Brexiters will eventually understand that they willingly gave up what power they had in the EU only to discover that the EU has one hell of an influence in the rest of the world; while it'll dawn on the moderates that the EU wasn't half as foreign as they thought it was, and they never knew how membership had made their lives easier/better.

    I can see both groups splitting into disgruntled factions - more than there were in the Article 50 period - and interminable squabbles and recriminations dragging the country down for years. Or at least until the Kingdom is disunited by the departure of Scotland and NI.


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  • #9487
    MBSnr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭MBSnr


    ^^^
    I think the UK needs the reset that a jarring no deal crash out will bring. Those Leavers in charge who have changed their tune to suit the way Brexit has morphed and changed, require the wake up call of hard reality hitting the general public who currently support them. Then and only then when the UK has 'properly' left in everyone's eyes, might we see some sense start to return to their politics. Especially when there is no EU meddling to blame. But it might take a while though before it filters through the right wing media...

    Of course a crash out no deal is very bad for Ireland and I do feel sorry for all those who didn't vote leave but have been caught up in this ongoing car crash.


  • #9488
    fash
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭fash


    MBSnr wrote: »
    Then and only then when the UK has 'properly' left in everyone's eyes, might we see some sense start to return to their politics. Especially when there is no EU meddling to blame. But it might take a while though before it filters through the right wing media...
    I don't see that happening, what I expect them to do is to double down on blaming the EU for punishing them. Everything is all the EU's fault, the red tape is because of the EU, the UK lost jobs because of the EU etc. etc. Why would they want this to ever end? What is in it for them that it does end?


  • #9489
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,216 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    MBSnr wrote: »
    ^^^
    I think the UK needs the reset that a jarring no deal crash out will bring. Those Leavers in charge who have changed their tune to suit the way Brexit has morphed and changed, require the wake up call of hard reality hitting the general public who currently support them. Then and only then when the UK has 'properly' left in everyone's eyes, might we see some sense start to return to their politics. Especially when there is no EU meddling to blame. But it might take a while though before it filters through the right wing media...

    Of course a crash out no deal is very bad for Ireland and I do feel sorry for all those who didn't vote leave but have been caught up in this ongoing car crash.

    Alternatively, the pain of no deal will be blamed entirely on the faceless bureaucrats of the EU. Their hatred of UK democracy, their attempt to subjugate the UK under the convenience flag of the EU.

    Now they are trying to subvert the Scottish into leaving the union in yet another power grab.

    And don’t mention the Irish, with their bloody we don’t want a border but want the UK to sort everything out for us.

    Making us que at airports whilst immigrants are given free houses.

    It doesn’t take much to turn that sort of blaming rhetoric to turn into real anger, especially if people start to lose jobs and companies start to shut factories, into calls for retaliation and ultimately action


  • #9490
    Going Strong
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 837 ✭✭✭Going Strong


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Alternatively, the pain of no deal will be blamed entirely on the faceless bureaucrats of the EU. Their hatred of UK democracy, their attempt to subjugate the UK under the convenience flag of the EU.

    Now they are trying to subvert the Scottish into leaving the union in yet another power grab.

    And don’t mention the Irish, with their bloody we don’t want a border but want the UK to sort everything out for us.

    Making us que at airports whilst immigrants are given free houses.

    It doesn’t take much to turn that sort of blaming rhetoric to turn into real anger, especially if people start to lose jobs and companies start to shut factories, into calls for retaliation and ultimately action






    I've seen lots of gleeful comments from Brexiters concerning the latest EU budget stating that Ireland will be next out the door because we've become a net contributor and Paddy doesn't like to put his hand in his pocket.


    A fair few comments along the lines of "We'll remember Ireland's treachery when they come crawling back to us."


  • #9491
    timetogo1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 893 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    Going Strong wrote: »
    I've seen lots of gleeful comments from Brexiters concerning the latest EU budget stating that Ireland will be next out the door because we've become a net contributor and Paddy doesn't like to put his hand in his pocket.


    A fair few comments along the lines of "We'll remember Ireland's treachery when they come crawling back to us."

    I've seen a few Irish people posting similar. Depressing really that after 4 years of getting more educated about the EU they still have this simplistic view.
    I don't care about the Brexiters but I was kind of hoping that the Irish are smarter (and in fairness its not a lot of Irish)


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  • #9492
    looksee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,529 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    There's always going to be some spouting stuff, look at the impassioned garbage you see about Trump and the GOP, completely irrational. I'd say too many are concerned with Covid, their jobs and their health at the moment to get too involved in Brexit discussion. Nothing much they can do at the moment anyway.


  • #9493
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭trellheim


    As usual the UK are getting nowhere so be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Given the timeframes we would likely see a 'gesture' on one side or the other but we moved last time and IIRC Barnier is under strict COREPER guidelines to do nothing unless Brits move first


  • #9494
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,126 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    trellheim wrote: »
    As usual the UK are getting nowhere so be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Given the timeframes we would likely see a 'gesture' on one side or the other but we moved last time and IIRC Barnier is under strict COREPER guidelines to do nothing unless Brits move first


    The Telegraph had the story that they were waiting/hoping for Merkel to intervene and move this impasse.

    Britain looks to Berlin to break Brexit deadlock
    British negotiators are banking on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to unblock Brexit talks after Michel Barnier accused the UK of wrecking the chances of a trade deal with the EU.

    For a country that is comfortable with no-deal they sure do compromise a lot and are always looking for an out. There is a story from the 1st July of Merkel telling the EU to prepare for no-deal. I don't know how you square that with her making a deal to bail out the UK effectively.


  • #9495
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭trellheim


    it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving


  • #9496
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,562 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    trellheim wrote: »
    it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

    It needs fishing and level playing field. The EU could offer GPS and Euro atom.


  • #9497
    timetogo1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 893 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    trellheim wrote: »
    it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

    I thought Boris moved. He put the checks in the Irish sea. That's what the EU wanted at the start but May said no British PM could ever accept that.
    But Boris played it as a victory so that probably suits the EU if people think its the UKs turn to make a move.


  • #9498
    Muscles Schultz
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 301 ✭✭Muscles Schultz


    trellheim wrote: »
    it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

    Leo didn’t move.


  • #9499
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,562 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Muscles Schultz wrote: »
    Leo didn’t move.

    Well he did - he went to Cheshire.


  • #9500
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Well he did - he went to Cheshire.
    exactly. The Wirral if I recall. EU won't budge on LPF its all games and they know this. It boils down to how slim a deal they want.


  • #9501
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,292 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Well he did - he went to Cheshire.
    trellheim wrote: »
    exactly. The Wirral if I recall. EU won't budge on LPF its all games and they know this. It boils down to how slim a deal they want.
    What are you on about? You think the location of a meeting means anything? So every time a UK PM has to come to Brussels it means what? Does this sound like Boris out-maneuvered anyone?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-and-irish-pm-meet-in-wedding-venue-for-last-ditch-brexit-talks-11832073

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49995133

    I remember Twitter and r/ukpolitics at the time mostly reporting it as Varadkar spoon-feeding Boris on how things were anyway.


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  • #9502
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,562 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Thargor wrote: »
    What are you on about? You think the location of a meeting means anything? So every time a UK PM has to come to Brussels it means what? Does this sound like Boris out-maneuvered anyone?

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-and-irish-pm-meet-in-wedding-venue-for-last-ditch-brexit-talks-11832073

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49995133

    I remember Twitter and r/ukpolitics at the time mostly reporting it as Varadkar spoon-feeding Boris on how things were anyway.

    OK there should have been a smiley face.

    Boris agreed to 'what no British Prime Minister would agree to' - a border down the Irish sea. That was some movement. The EU moved from a back stop to a front stop - which is what they wanted in the first place.


  • #9503
    declanflynn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Well he did - he went to Cheshire.
    Boris wanted Leo to come to London, but they ended up meeting in Cheshire, so both parties compromised


  • #9504
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,717 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    OK there should have been a smiley face.

    Boris agreed to 'what no British Prime Minister would agree to' - a border down the Irish sea. That was some movement. The EU moved from a back stop to a front stop - which is what they wanted in the first place.

    Several political analysts have speculated that Johnson didn't actually realise what he had signed up to. The 'towering intellectual' of the right wing press is actually a bit dense in real life with poor attention to detail.

    From memory, I think even Ken Clarke was one of those putting forward this theory.


  • #9505
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,568 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Several political analysts have speculated that Johnson didn't actually realise what he had signed up to. The 'towering intellectual' of the right wing press is actually a bit dense in real life with poor attention to detail.

    From memory, I think even Ken Clarke was one of those putting forward this theory.

    Who actually considers him a "towering intellectual", can I ask? He's always been a buffoon.

    As far as I know, he also conceded on the £7bn the UK was due from the European Investment Bank too. As in, it was clear that May was negotiating for this to go back to the UK, but Boris just gave it up without a fight:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-gives-up-7bn-windfall-from-european-investment-bank-tq0qskgfc

    Then there is also the "oven ready" deal, which he later claimed was entirely unfair on the UK.


  • #9506
    ancapailldorcha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,595 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Several political analysts have speculated that Johnson didn't actually realise what he had signed up to. The 'towering intellectual' of the right wing press is actually a bit dense in real life with poor attention to detail.

    From memory, I think even Ken Clarke was one of those putting forward this theory.

    When you look past the classical education, the large words, the occasional Latin and the odd historical reference there is very little left. Sir Nicholas Soames once said that one should not conflate fluency and a moderately well cut suit with wisdom.

    The thing with Johnson isn't that he's stupid. It's worse than that. He's vain, conceited, possibly narcissistic and monumentally lazy. Tim Shipman documents this well in his chronicle of the referendum All Out War. I often find myself wondering why he's Prime Minister. Surely he was better off trotting out hack pieces for the Telegraph about how the EU was going to ban wisdom teeth or something.

    He has clearly outsourced himself to Cummings. This levelling up agenda is clearly a Cummings project and I don't see how it squares with leaving the EU without a deal in place by the end of the year. It's going to be a bad look when Britain goes for a second "lockdown" while the EU starts to return to normal.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #9507
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,562 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    When you look past the classical education, the large words, the occasional Latin and the odd historical reference there is very little left. Sir Nicholas Soames once said that one should not conflate fluency and a moderately well cut suit with wisdom.

    I do not think anyone can accuse Johnson of wearing a well cut suit. He hardly ever tucks his shirt into his trousers, and just ruffles his hair. Also, he is not very fluent - always bumbling and blustering. So zero points for feigning wisdom.

    He is not good at detail - owing to his laziness. He does not get the big picture owing to his limited grasp of things outside Greco-Roman ancient history. So what is left? Not much, beyond bombast.


  • #9508
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,292 ✭✭✭trellheim


    He is not good at detail - owing to his laziness. He does not get the big picture owing to his limited grasp of things outside Greco-Roman ancient history. So what is left? Not much, beyond bombast.

    He managed to get to be PM, and Mayor of London - hardly jobs you fall into, Jim Hacker aside . A lot of it is an act , granted . However I do not know what he stands for - which is a very different position from other Tory PMs like Major and Thatcher


  • #9509
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    trellheim wrote: »
    He managed to get to be PM, and Mayor of London - hardly jobs you fall into, Jim Hacker aside . A lot of it is an act , granted . However I do not know what he stands for - which is a very different position from other Tory PMs like Major and Thatcher

    Politically, he was very much a One Nation Tory but he sold his soul for fame and power. His Ego got the better of him. He is now a pathetic glove puppet for Cummings.


  • #9510
    Jizique
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,269 ✭✭✭Jizique


    trellheim wrote: »
    He managed to get to be PM, and Mayor of London - hardly jobs you fall into, Jim Hacker aside . A lot of it is an act , granted . However I do not know what he stands for - which is a very different position from other Tory PMs like Major and Thatcher

    He managed that largely due to his role on a tv comedy series which convinced large parts of the London electorate that he was a bit of fun, not a xenophobic nationalist which is what got him elected as leader of the party


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  • #9511
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 44,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    As we are reaching the 10000 post threshold, I’ve created a new thread here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058099620

    Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/ .



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