Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Pick your cake before eating it:

With the end of the Brexit withdrawal agreement on the horizon, the ruling also poses new problems for the UK in defining its future relationship with the EU. Without a new replacement for the privacy shield, the UK could be forced to pick between frictionless data transfers with the US or EU on 31 December, warned Toni Vitale, partner and head of data protection at JMW Solicitors.

“Post Brexit, the UK could be deemed to have inadequate protection given the lack of judicial oversight over the security forces,” Vitale added, “and this could this lead to a ban on exports of data from the EU to the UK in the future.”

Rules and regs clarified by a CJEU ruling today. This would obviously be a big problem for UK companies trying to provide services into the EU, but possibly also for Irish customers of UK online merchants/distribution centres - as well as all those Dublin-based US data farmers.

Nody

CelticRambler wrote: »

Pick your cake before eating it:



Rules and regs clarified by a CJEU ruling today. This would obviously be a big problem for UK companies trying to provide services into the EU, but possibly also for Irish customers of UK online merchants/distribution centres - as well as all those Dublin-based US data farmers.

I expect most would simply set up a new entity in EU by now to deal with it. I know the one UK company I'm using personally (TorFX) already told me second half of last year that they would migrate my account from their main UK entity to Luxembourg along with all European customers exactly for that reason and all data would remain there and they will have approved limitations on what data can be seen by the service agents but the "ownership" sitting in an EU country. I think the hit will be more for mid and small cap companies who've not dealt with it previously and most importantly a significant issue for tech start ups who wants to service the EU market.

Capt'n Midnight

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That Grayling story is pretty funny though.

And obviously more interesting if it leads to the report being published next week:
twitter.com/joncraig/status/1283467291578032129?s=19

And by coincidence

"Don't look over there, look at this"
Coronavirus: Russian spies target Covid-19 vaccine research

Capt'n Midnight

Oh boy.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UK-premier-reiterates-support-for-nuclear
UK reaffirms commitment to spaffing billions up the all. Most to foreign companies who like hard currency and many of which are one failed project from bankruptcy.

Nuclear this nuclear that, the best bit is the lead times are so long that the guilty will likely be on decent pensions before the fertilizer hits the fan. 'too big to fail' and all that.


https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UK-government-support-for-modular-reactor-deployme
Modular reactors have been used by navies since 1955 and the UK will invest in squaring the circle because no one has gotten them close to economic.



EDF and China General Nuclear are 80% - 20% shareholders in the pre-construction phase of Sizewell C. no comment needed


https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Nuclear-at-heart-of-proposed-Moorside-clean-energy More nuclear at the Sellafield , Calder Hall, Windscale complex, but it's "green", the UK has problems getting enough foreign partners to build it's planned nukes.

Enzokk

Talks between the UK and EU are continuing and Barnier and Frost will meet in London from Monday. According to this piece, Picture link of story from Times, there is an expectation from the UK side that talks could be closed early because of the constraints placed on Barnier by the other 27 heads of state. The irony of that statement isn't lost on me from the No.10 source. It's not like the UK has shown a lot of flexibility at all. We will have to wait and see how things are progressing with the FTA talks next week.

As for the talks on the Irish Protocol, well it seems like progress is happening although from the EU side there are still concerns,

Brexit: Concerns for EU after latest meeting with UK over Irish Protocol

The need for customs infrastructure, how VAT will work and a shortage of trained customs officials in Northern Ireland have all emerged as key concerns for the EU following the latest meeting with the UK on the Irish Protocol, RTÉ News understands.

Officials say that while there has been significant progress in implementing the Protocol, there are concerns that time is running out for the UK to prepare the ground for the changes to come into effect on 1 January.

"At least they are talking to us, at least they are explaining some things and there is some movement," one source told RTÉ News.

"But we are still quite far away from the ideal situation."

Yesterday, EU and UK officials held the second meeting of the so-called Specialised Subcommittee, set up under the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to oversee the technical implementation of the Protocol.

So it seems like slowly but surely the UK is getting to where it could and should have been a month ago. It does my head in when you know where these things are supposed to go and what is supposed to happen, but one side delays and dithers for no other reason than what I assume must be incompetence. There is no other explanation on why the UK is taking so long and putting everything on edge with these negotiations. Maybe when they do have the upper hand it would work, but we all know where this is going.

The UK will give the EU an office in Belfast for their staff as they still need a good relationship with the EU. They will also implement the IP as they signed up for. I don't see the need to try and pretend their deal is anything other than it is, there is no election coming up and they missed the chance for an extension. Face up to your responsibility.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

Talks between the UK and EU are continuing and Barnier and Frost will meet in London from Monday. According to this piece, Picture link of story from Times, there is an expectation from the UK side that talks could be closed early because of the constraints placed on Barnier by the other 27 heads of state. The irony of that statement isn't lost on me from the No.10 source. It's not like the UK has shown a lot of flexibility at all. We will have to wait and see how things are progressing with the FTA talks next week.

In that Times story, there's a comment "Australia doesn't have a free-trade agreement with the EU" implying all will be well for the UK in the event that GB is relegated to an "Australia-style" trade agreement.

I wonder if (a) those peddling this line are aware of the ongoing negotiations between the EU and Australia to put a FTA into place (two years and counting); and (b) would they be happy to accept a 90% reduction in the UK's trade with the EU to bring it down to the same level as Australia's? (Aus = 80bn€, UK=800bn€ pa)

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

In that Times story, there's a comment "Australia doesn't have a free-trade agreement with the EU" implying all will be well for the UK in the event that GB is relegated to an "Australia-style" trade agreement.

I wonder if (a) those peddling this line are aware of the ongoing negotiations between the EU and Australia to put a FTA into place (two years and counting); and (b) would they be happy to accept a 90% reduction in the UK's trade with the EU to bring it down to the same level as Australia's? (Aus = 80bn€, UK=800bn€ pa)

I see it as progress actually, at least they say that it will be the same as Australia's deal with the EU, and then goes ahead and states that Australia doesn't have a trade deal with the EU. That is progress for me.

I think we have established already that Brexit has almost no benefits for the country. Yes you could argue about immigration, but the benefits outweigh the negatives by a long way. So it is all about the journey now and where it will end.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

I think we have established already that Brexit has almost no benefits for the country. Yes you could argue about immigration,

Not really. It's a pothole issue.
"Vote for us and we'll fix the potholes" say the people who view potholes as a vehicle to get re-elected when it's an issue that could be solved easily by following the existing rules. (and for real potholes a wee bit of preventative maintenance that'd work out cheaper in the long run)


EU migration is a package deal as lots of UK ex-pats on the mainland are finding out.
EU migrants tend to go home
EU migrants could be sent home if not working - that the UK chose not enforce this has nothing to do with the EU.

Oddly enough the one thing the UK had some control over has already caused nett EU migration to fall off a cliff, the value of the pound.


non-EU immigration is a national competency. UK has always had COMPLETE control.

And it's possible that the numbers of voters of Asian ancestry might have swung the Brexit vote in order to increase immigration.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

I see it as progress actually, at least they say that it will be the same as Australia's deal with the EU, and then goes ahead and states that Australia doesn't have a trade deal with the EU. That is progress for me.

I think we have established already that Brexit has almost no benefits for the country. Yes you could argue about immigration, but the benefits outweigh the negatives by a long way. So it is all about the journey now and where it will end.

British public voted for Brexit mainly for political / anti immigration / xenophobic reasons. I don't think they ever really believed the economic arguments.

The thing has become an obvious disaster but they're all just doubling down on their (bad) decision. It's all "sovereignty", "democracy", "freedom", even though Brexit is going to unleash a whole load of pain on them. One wonders just how bad things will have to get before they admit they messed up.

MBSnr

Noticed this Twitter post about Amazon informing their 3rd party sellers that cross UK-EU orders will not be moved from one fulfillment centre to another across the new border. The 3rd party seller needs to ensure they have stocks in both the UK and EU centres to continue to sell to both UK and EU.

Surely going to mean our choice drops dramatically. I've already seen an increase in the number of 3rd party suppliers on Amazon saying they can't ship to Ireland, even if fulfilled by Amazon.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1284184370488770560

Jizique

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Not really. It's a pothole issue.
"Vote for us and we'll fix the potholes" say the people who view potholes as a vehicle to get re-elected when it's an issue that could be solved easily by following the existing rules. (and for real potholes a wee bit of preventative maintenance that'd work out cheaper in the long run)


EU migration is a package deal as lots of UK ex-pats on the mainland are finding out.
EU migrants tend to go home
EU migrants could be sent home if not working - that the UK chose not enforce this has nothing to do with the EU.

Oddly enough the one thing the UK had some control over has already caused nett EU migration to fall off a cliff, the value of the pound.


non-EU immigration is a national competency. UK has always had COMPLETE control.

And it's possible that the numbers of voters of Asian ancestry might have swung the Brexit vote in order to increase immigration.

There has been a sharp increase in non-EU immigration since the vote, and they have always had control of that - I think it had risen to 80% of total

CelticRambler

MBSnr wrote: »

Surely going to mean our choice drops dramatically. I've already seen an increase in the number of 3rd party suppliers on Amazon saying they can't ship to Ireland, even if fulfilled by Amazon.

Well ... it might mean that Irish customers finally decide to stop hanging off the coat-tails of GB suppliers and whole-heartedly embrace the European project, funny plugs and all! As an Irishman resident in France, I don't feel my choice is particularly limited, being able to get stuff shipped from Spain, Germany, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic ...

MBSnr

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well ... it might mean that Irish customers finally decide to stop hanging off the coat-tails of GB suppliers and whole-heartedly embrace the European project, funny plugs and all! As an Irishman resident in France, I don't feel my choice is particularly limited, being able to get stuff shipped from Spain, Germany, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic ...

Irish customers won't stop hanging off the UK until the manufacturers and wholesalers stop treating the UK better than Ireland. How many global sites have the UK as a country but not Ireland? How many sites don't sell the model in Ireland or have a limited store front but sell the full range in the UK? Plenty including Google. Or those that have no stock in Ireland but do in the UK like Marks and Spencers, but ironically it's shipped from the UK....

I bought a desk from IKEA Ireland. Stock is in Dublin. Delivery is 6 wks. It's in IKEA in Belfast and I could have it delivered to an NI address for half the delivery cost in 7 days. IKEA aren't treating Ireland as one whole yet and supplying Ireland from the North. Neither seemingly many other stores. Perhaps that will change. But for now what is the Irish customer to do when the UK offers better value and IKEA France isn't an option?

I've bought mobiles and other items from Amazon Germany, Spain and Italy as they were cheaper than the Amazon UK price and lived with the European plug.. This however is fairly rare and Amazon UK normally consistently beats the others on price comparisons for the products I want.

Capt'n Midnight

MBSnr wrote: »

Irish customers won't stop hanging off the UK until the manufacturers and wholesalers stop treating the UK better than Ireland. How many global sites have the UK as a country but not Ireland?

Thanks to parcelwizard, parcelconnect, parcelmotel and addresspal
Irish consumers can benefit whenever sterling drops.

How will the UK handle this ?

swampgas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Thanks to parcelwizard, parcelconnect, parcelmotel and addresspal
Irish consumers can benefit whenever sterling drops.

How will the UK handle this ?

I was wondering if something like ParcelMotel can still operate effectively after Dec 31st? If the UK leaves the single market how can parcels be moved (say) from UK to Ireland without a lot of extra paperwork and possibly fees?

Strazdas

swampgas wrote: »

I was wondering if something like ParcelMotel can still operate effectively after Dec 31st? If the UK leaves the single market how can parcels be moved (say) from UK to Ireland without a lot of extra paperwork and possibly fees?

One wonders if UK consumers are even aware what is coming down the tracks re. post and parcels? They voted to keep immigrants out, not to disrupt the postal service and having to pay taxes and duties on everything.....they may be in for a rude awakening on January 1st.

MBSnr

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Thanks to parcelwizard, parcelconnect, parcelmotel and addresspal
Irish consumers can benefit whenever sterling drops.

How will the UK handle this ?

I agree. But bulky items such as furniture etc isn't practical to get shipped like that with the excess size/weight charges. Returns have also been problematic in this regard back via NI.

I'd hope a 'blind' eye is taken regarding these parcel services. However I do think that many mainland UK stores/shops may just stop delivering to NI redirect services (if they are aware of them) as they'd not want the possible paperwork issue of their products crossing into an EU country.

Funnily enough there's been a number of items I've been after that the supplier won't deliver to NI in the last few months - coincidence perhaps and not due to batteries either etc. I expect that to unfortunately increase.

Capt'n Midnight

MBSnr wrote: »

I agree. But bulky items such as furniture etc isn't practical to get shipped like that with the excess size/weight charges. Returns have also been problematic in this regard back via NI.

Addresspal is in England.

I've gotten a 49" TV delivered to work through Parcelwizard.

Richer sounds deliver to Dublin and offer long warranties so will be using them in future.


Worlds biggest ferries operate on the Rotterdam to Dublin route and the EU is subsidising development of routes so the higher prices here are more due to gougers than delivery costs.


The other side of the coin is that a lot of UK business supply Ireland and if that were to stop they could loose 10% of hinterland. Irish subsidiaries might report to a head office on the continent instead of the UK.

Ireland and Cyprus are the only common law countries in the EU. And guess which one is slightly more attractive for US companies ? I can think of about 13 billion reasons.

Geuze

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

non-EU immigration is a national competency. UK has always had COMPLETE control.

And it's possible that the numbers of voters of Asian ancestry might have swung the Brexit vote in order to increase immigration.

Yes.

Farage told the Asians there would be more space for their relations if the flows from eastern Europe stopped.

MBSnr

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Addresspal is in England.

I've gotten a 49" TV delivered to work through Parcelwizard.

Richer sounds deliver to Dublin and offer long warranties so will be using them in future.


Worlds biggest ferries operate on the Rotterdam to Dublin route and the EU is subsidising development of routes so the higher prices here are more due to gougers than delivery costs.


The other side of the coin is that a lot of UK business supply Ireland and if that were to stop they could loose 10% of hinterland. Irish subsidiaries might report to a head office on the continent instead of the UK.

Ireland and Cyprus are the only common law countries in the EU. And guess which one is slightly more attractive for US companies ? I can think of about 13 billion reasons.

Deviating from brexit i realise but I've heard of a few people having issues with Addresspal. Lost parcels, no tracking and refusal of companies to deliver to their address. Puts me off them.

I've had parts of a cast iron stove delivered via the North. Cost me extra at the depot pickup though. Some items have also cost half their value to return via NI. So not always the easiest or best option.

I buy a lot of IT stuff for work via Irish suppliers and their first stock check and point of call is the UK wholesaler. Then we get the Euro marked up price with everyone taking their cut. I've often gone directly to Germany for some top end items like RTX GPUs and Supermicros servers as they are cheaper than the marked up Euro Irish price via the UK.
I hope that things change but I'm a pessimist and I think on the whole the goods will still come from the UK, cost more and just be delayed...

CelticRambler

MBSnr wrote: »

I'd hope a 'blind' eye is taken regarding these parcel services. However I do think that many mainland UK stores/shops may just stop delivering to NI redirect services (if they are aware of them) as they'd not want the possible paperwork issue of their products crossing into an EU country.

The WA prohibits a blind eye being turned: if you're a business in GB selling into NI (i.e. posting something from GB to an address in NI) then you'll have to complete all the necessary documentation (that Johnson said you can throw in the bin) to prove that you've paid EU duties, which your NI-based customer can then recover once they've satisfied the EU that the item ordered will never leave NI.

Given that "everybody" knows how the ParcelMotel service works for RoI deliveries, I don't see how it can possibly be given a pass - it will be a flagrant breach of the rules.

As a GB supplier, it's going to be a heck of a lot easier to simplify the "excludes Republic of Ireland" clause to "excludes Ireland". Another step towards the UK of GB & NI that the Unionists voted for.

First Up

One off personal purchases are a side issue. Much bigger changes will be seen at retail level.

All the big stores and supermarkets have integrated supply chains and distribution systems between Ireland and the UK. All of that is vulnerable and much will change. Some long familiar products will disappear.

CelticRambler

First Up wrote: »

One off personal purchases are a side issue. Much bigger changes will be seen at retail level.

All the big stores and supermarkets have integrated supply chains and distribution systems between Ireland and the UK. All of that is vulnerable and much will change. Some long familiar products will disappear.

Alternatively, the continental-based chains may decide that Ireland makes for a good holding zone for onward distribution into the UK - e.g. it'd be much easier for a company like Decathlon to move excess stock back to continental Europe if there was a sudden change in demand.

Also, if the GB-based chains pull out of the island of Ireland (personally, I don't think that'll happen on a grand scale, but ...) then that'll leave a gap in the market to be exploited by continental companies. Carrefour could easily fill an M&S-shaped hole.

First Up

CelticRambler wrote:

Alternatively, the continental-based chains may decide that Ireland makes for a good holding zone for onward distribution into the UK - e.g. it'd be much easier for a company like Decathlon to move excess stock back to continental Europe if there was a sudden change in demand.

I suppose that's possible when Decathlon open here. It's all up for grabs. Some Japanese auto companies now supply Ireland from Rotterdam instead of the UK.

CelticRambler wrote:

Also, if the GB-based chains pull out of the island of Ireland (personally, I don't think that'll happen on a grand scale, but ...) then that'll leave a gap in the market to be exploited by continental companies. Carrefour could easily fill an M&S-shaped hole.

Carrefour have had big stores across the UK for a long time and never showed much interest in opening here when they could have added it quite easily. I'd watch Aldi and Lidl if gaps appear. Musgraves too.

Capt'n Midnight

First Up wrote: »

One off personal purchases are a side issue. Much bigger changes will be seen at retail level.

All the big stores and supermarkets have integrated supply chains and distribution systems between Ireland and the UK. All of that is vulnerable and much will change. Some long familiar products will disappear.

For every €9 spent on retail Dunnes , SuperValue and Tesco each take €2, Lidl and Aldi take €1 each which leaves €1 for everyone else including Marks and Spencer (UK own brands) Spar, Mace, Londis.

Only Tesco and Marks and Spencer are UK supermarkets. The rest are EU.
Heavy and short life products are usually sourced locally.

You also have to take into account that a lot of UK brands are owned by multinationals and stuff regarded as English may actually be made in Poland.

And brands like Cadbury's were already devalued by their new owners and their current products won't be missed. 10 years ago I'd have been upset that Cadbury's would go forever. Now I don't care , and besides it would just be a 10%-20% price rises which a good brand could handle. But not the stuff they are passing off as chocolate now.

Ben Done

Interesting live event starting at 10:30 on Citizen TV YouTube channel..

Carole Cadwalladr (of Cambridge Analytica exposé fame)
Luke Harding (Russia correspondent - new book = Shadow State)
Bill Browser (of Magnitsky fame)
Catherine Belton (book = Putin"s people)

Discussing the Russia Report

(significance to Brexit: Aaron Banks, shady Brexit character (of empty diamond mines fame, among much else) is suiing to try to delay release of the Russia Report (after walking out of testifying to the Committee), as it might defame him..

https://m.youtube.com/channel/UC2FZVXZkfDencs6KsYVpe_g

ath262

Tweet from A.C. Grayling on article in Yorkshire Bylines re conflicting policy on UK Internal Trade / E.U. Single Market : UK single market white paper: “irony so bitter it makes your eyes bleed”

Roanmore

Ben Done wrote: »

Interesting live event starting at 10:30 on Citizen TV YouTube channel..

Carole Cadwalladr (of Cambridge Analytica exposé fame)
Luke Harding (Russia correspondent - new book = Shadow State)
Bill Browser (of Magnitsky fame)
Catherine Belton (book = Putin"s people)

Discussing the Russia Report

(significance to Brexit: Aaron Banks, shady Brexit character (of empty diamond mines fame, among much else) is suiing to try to delay release of the Russia Report (after walking out of testifying to the Committee), as it might defame him..

https://m.youtube.com/channel/UC2FZVXZkfDencs6KsYVpe_g

Interesting that either The Mail or The Express had the headline this morning "Don't smear Brexit", wonder if they have been given a preview.

Infini

MBSnr wrote: »

Noticed this Twitter post about Amazon informing their 3rd party sellers that cross UK-EU orders will not be moved from one fulfillment centre to another across the new border. The 3rd party seller needs to ensure they have stocks in both the UK and EU centres to continue to sell to both UK and EU.

Surely going to mean our choice drops dramatically. I've already seen an increase in the number of 3rd party suppliers on Amazon saying they can't ship to Ireland, even if fulfilled by Amazon.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1284184370488770560

Amazon were scouting out a warehouse center in Dubiin a while ago it's likely some stuff will get moved to that.Honestly I wouldnt be suprised if come the end of the year we finally get an Amazon.ie.

Alun

First Up wrote: »

I suppose that's possible when Decathlon open here.

They've been open in Ballymun since the middle of June.