Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

reslfj

ambro25 wrote: »

...
I'm sorry I can't link it here (can't do Twitter on my early gen coal-powered iPad), but it really is worth seeking out.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1286554980456046594.html

Lars

A Dub in Glasgo

That is a fantastic lookback

Capt'n Midnight

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So another casualty of Brexit was their access to Galileo EU gps system, Brexiteers of course said that they will make their own GPS with hookers and rum

So they spent half a billion on bankrupt oneweb satellite company (against advise) https://www.ft.com/content/d0721bad-e721-457a-8b1c-b11500f6bb6a

But there is a slight issue, these satellites and infrastructure (what little of it was built before oneweb went bankrupt) are technically unsuitable for GPS replacement, their aim was satellite broadband

Loads of technical details here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYdSdawgMrw

OneWeb: Minister overrode warning about £400m investment

Sam Beckett, the top civil servant in the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), said all the money put forward could be lost.

"While in one scenario we could get a 20% return, the central case is marginal and there are significant downside risks, including that venture capital investments of this sort can fail, with the consequence that all the value of the equity can be lost," she wrote.

The UK has very little control in this project.
The satellites are made in the US.
They are launched on Russian rockets.

India’s Bharti Global will get the rights to supply the business management and commercial operations. They have the ground network and customers. The mobile phone market in India is tricky. Vodafone is paying billion dollar fines there.



The clocks on the satellites are nowhere near as good as on real GPS satellites. So useless for navigation unless you have a LOT of constant calibration. This means lots of ground based radar stations worldwide to constantly update the ephemeris data. And lots of new software. And it might work in theory ?

The UK will be piggybacking off the US's GPS for years.



Meanwhile Scottish whisky is still attracting a 25% tariff in the USA over the Airbus thing even though the UK has left the EU. It's good to have a 'special relationship'. What concessions will the UK make in the US trade deal for Scotland ??

briany

If the Conservatives had gotten to the December 2019 GE without a deal ready to go, i.e. going into it on a no-deal platform, would they have returned a majority in the Commons?

If no, then there must surely by a huge amount of voters feeling utterly betrayed by the Tories at this moment.

Igotadose

briany wrote: »

If the Conservatives had gotten to the December 2019 GE without a deal ready to go, i.e. going into it on a no-deal platform, would they have returned a majority in the Commons?

If no, then there must surely by a huge amount of voters feeling utterly betrayed by the Tories at this moment.

Maybe, but they're preoccupied with dying relatives, loss of jobs, income and self respect, and the knowledge that their government continues to make a shambles of everything and lies to them. The Brexit reality won't sink in overnight - maybe not being able to easily take the pets to the continent might make some realize it, but they're out of work, and generally screwed anyway, so what if the planes can't land in Europe, they're not going there anyway. And if the fisheries all fall apart, hey, there'll always be something at the chipper, might be swill from the US or whatever, with enough malt vinegar you won't notice the taste.

They're screwed now. It's not going to get better, and Brexit will make it worse but not overnight. By the time it does, the Project Leave hooligans will have pocketed their millions and fecked off to whatever islands they're buying.

British politics is a joke. When Labor needed to be proactive and challenge Brexit, they meeped away and couldn't stop gazing at their own navels. Unfortunately, unlike WWII, there'll be no international consortium of allies to help out the UK this time. They're going to be the crippled old man of Europe for the forseeable future, especially in the presence of a No Deal Brexit, which is what the government is moving towards.

If somehow they throw the Tories out, what will Labor be able to do? Call off Brexit? No. Rejoin the EU - maybe eventually, with big changes to the UK as a result, like moving into the Eurozone.

CrabRevolution

briany wrote: »

If the Conservatives had gotten to the December 2019 GE without a deal ready to go, i.e. going into it on a no-deal platform, would they have returned a majority in the Commons?

If no, then there must surely by a huge amount of voters feeling utterly betrayed by the Tories at this moment.

Your first question is tough to answer. Personally I'd say they'd have a similar makeup to the Cameron or May government; slim/C&S majority. Corbyn was spectacularly unpopular and his Brexit policy of having no policy convinced nobody so there'd be no chance of a Labour win.

As for your second point; this whole ordeal has consisted of Brexiters whitewashing the past and retroactively changing what they apparently voted for at various times against all evidence to the contrary. "Oven ready deal" was simply the latest buzzphrase concocted by the chief brexiters to help edge the UK closer to any brexit so that they can try to bring about the all pros no cons Brexit they envisage in the future.

Instead of betrayal, what you'll find is many voters now claiming they actually voted for no-deal back in December.

briany

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Your first question is tough to answer. Personally I'd say they'd have a similar makeup to the Cameron or May government; slim/C&S majority. Corbyn was spectacularly unpopular and his Brexit policy of having no policy convinced nobody so there'd be no chance of a Labour win.

As for your second point; this whole ordeal has consisted of Brexiters whitewashing the past and retroactively changing what they apparently voted for at various times against all evidence to the contrary. "Oven ready deal" was simply the latest buzzphrase concocted by the chief brexiters to help edge the UK closer to any brexit so that they can try to bring about the all pros no cons Brexit they envisage in the future.

Instead of betrayal, what you'll find is many voters now claiming they actually voted for no-deal back in December.

You'd get a lot of Brexiteers who thought the EU would agree a fantastic trade in mere months now saying that they voted for no-deal. As for the others who genuinely wanted a sensible compromise, and have enough wisdom to know no-deal is madness, I don't know. There must be some discrepancy between the no-deal platform and deal platforms if you predict the former would have delivered numbers similar to May's result, and the latter bringing in a thumping majority, and I suspect it lies in moderates who just wanted the whole business over with (or so they thought it would be).

CelticRambler

briany wrote: »

YThere must be some discrepancy between the no-deal platform and deal platforms if you predict the former would have delivered numbers similar to May's result, and the latter bringing in a thumping majority, and I suspect it lies in moderates who just wanted the whole business over with (or so they thought it would be).

From my relatively distant position, it seems to me that the discrepancy is more between where people think we are in the process. Somewhat paradoxically, the hard-core Brexiters can't quite come to terms with the fact that the UK has left and things aren't really all that different; while the moderates think it's all over and everything's very much the same as before.

Both groups are sort-of-right and sort-of-wrong, and I think both camps are going to slowly come to separate uncomfortable realisations from next year onwards. The hard-core Brexiters will eventually understand that they willingly gave up what power they had in the EU only to discover that the EU has one hell of an influence in the rest of the world; while it'll dawn on the moderates that the EU wasn't half as foreign as they thought it was, and they never knew how membership had made their lives easier/better.

I can see both groups splitting into disgruntled factions - more than there were in the Article 50 period - and interminable squabbles and recriminations dragging the country down for years. Or at least until the Kingdom is disunited by the departure of Scotland and NI.

MBSnr

^^^
I think the UK needs the reset that a jarring no deal crash out will bring. Those Leavers in charge who have changed their tune to suit the way Brexit has morphed and changed, require the wake up call of hard reality hitting the general public who currently support them. Then and only then when the UK has 'properly' left in everyone's eyes, might we see some sense start to return to their politics. Especially when there is no EU meddling to blame. But it might take a while though before it filters through the right wing media...

Of course a crash out no deal is very bad for Ireland and I do feel sorry for all those who didn't vote leave but have been caught up in this ongoing car crash.

fash

MBSnr wrote: »

Then and only then when the UK has 'properly' left in everyone's eyes, might we see some sense start to return to their politics. Especially when there is no EU meddling to blame. But it might take a while though before it filters through the right wing media...

I don't see that happening, what I expect them to do is to double down on blaming the EU for punishing them. Everything is all the EU's fault, the red tape is because of the EU, the UK lost jobs because of the EU etc. etc. Why would they want this to ever end? What is in it for them that it does end?

Leroy42

MBSnr wrote: »

^^^
I think the UK needs the reset that a jarring no deal crash out will bring. Those Leavers in charge who have changed their tune to suit the way Brexit has morphed and changed, require the wake up call of hard reality hitting the general public who currently support them. Then and only then when the UK has 'properly' left in everyone's eyes, might we see some sense start to return to their politics. Especially when there is no EU meddling to blame. But it might take a while though before it filters through the right wing media...

Of course a crash out no deal is very bad for Ireland and I do feel sorry for all those who didn't vote leave but have been caught up in this ongoing car crash.

Alternatively, the pain of no deal will be blamed entirely on the faceless bureaucrats of the EU. Their hatred of UK democracy, their attempt to subjugate the UK under the convenience flag of the EU.

Now they are trying to subvert the Scottish into leaving the union in yet another power grab.

And don’t mention the Irish, with their bloody we don’t want a border but want the UK to sort everything out for us.

Making us que at airports whilst immigrants are given free houses.

It doesn’t take much to turn that sort of blaming rhetoric to turn into real anger, especially if people start to lose jobs and companies start to shut factories, into calls for retaliation and ultimately action

Going Strong

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alternatively, the pain of no deal will be blamed entirely on the faceless bureaucrats of the EU. Their hatred of UK democracy, their attempt to subjugate the UK under the convenience flag of the EU.

Now they are trying to subvert the Scottish into leaving the union in yet another power grab.

And don’t mention the Irish, with their bloody we don’t want a border but want the UK to sort everything out for us.

Making us que at airports whilst immigrants are given free houses.

It doesn’t take much to turn that sort of blaming rhetoric to turn into real anger, especially if people start to lose jobs and companies start to shut factories, into calls for retaliation and ultimately action

I've seen lots of gleeful comments from Brexiters concerning the latest EU budget stating that Ireland will be next out the door because we've become a net contributor and Paddy doesn't like to put his hand in his pocket.


A fair few comments along the lines of "We'll remember Ireland's treachery when they come crawling back to us."

timetogo1

Going Strong wrote: »

I've seen lots of gleeful comments from Brexiters concerning the latest EU budget stating that Ireland will be next out the door because we've become a net contributor and Paddy doesn't like to put his hand in his pocket.


A fair few comments along the lines of "We'll remember Ireland's treachery when they come crawling back to us."

I've seen a few Irish people posting similar. Depressing really that after 4 years of getting more educated about the EU they still have this simplistic view.
I don't care about the Brexiters but I was kind of hoping that the Irish are smarter (and in fairness its not a lot of Irish)

looksee

There's always going to be some spouting stuff, look at the impassioned garbage you see about Trump and the GOP, completely irrational. I'd say too many are concerned with Covid, their jobs and their health at the moment to get too involved in Brexit discussion. Nothing much they can do at the moment anyway.

trellheim

As usual the UK are getting nowhere so be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Given the timeframes we would likely see a 'gesture' on one side or the other but we moved last time and IIRC Barnier is under strict COREPER guidelines to do nothing unless Brits move first

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

As usual the UK are getting nowhere so be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of weeks. Given the timeframes we would likely see a 'gesture' on one side or the other but we moved last time and IIRC Barnier is under strict COREPER guidelines to do nothing unless Brits move first

The Telegraph had the story that they were waiting/hoping for Merkel to intervene and move this impasse.

Britain looks to Berlin to break Brexit deadlock

British negotiators are banking on German Chancellor Angela Merkel to unblock Brexit talks after Michel Barnier accused the UK of wrecking the chances of a trade deal with the EU.

For a country that is comfortable with no-deal they sure do compromise a lot and are always looking for an out. There is a story from the 1st July of Merkel telling the EU to prepare for no-deal. I don't know how you square that with her making a deal to bail out the UK effectively.

trellheim

it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

It needs fishing and level playing field. The EU could offer GPS and Euro atom.

timetogo1

trellheim wrote: »

it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

I thought Boris moved. He put the checks in the Irish sea. That's what the EU wanted at the start but May said no British PM could ever accept that.
But Boris played it as a victory so that probably suits the EU if people think its the UKs turn to make a move.

Muscles Schultz

trellheim wrote: »

it took Leo moving last time to unblock it, EU believe it is UK's turn to move. Though without fishing on the table I cant see it moving

Leo didn’t move.

Sam Russell

Muscles Schultz wrote: »

Leo didn’t move.

Well he did - he went to Cheshire.

trellheim

Well he did - he went to Cheshire.

exactly. The Wirral if I recall. EU won't budge on LPF its all games and they know this. It boils down to how slim a deal they want.

Thargor

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well he did - he went to Cheshire.

trellheim wrote: »

exactly. The Wirral if I recall. EU won't budge on LPF its all games and they know this. It boils down to how slim a deal they want.

What are you on about? You think the location of a meeting means anything? So every time a UK PM has to come to Brussels it means what? Does this sound like Boris out-maneuvered anyone?

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-and-irish-pm-meet-in-wedding-venue-for-last-ditch-brexit-talks-11832073

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49995133

I remember Twitter and r/ukpolitics at the time mostly reporting it as Varadkar spoon-feeding Boris on how things were anyway.

Sam Russell

Thargor wrote: »

What are you on about? You think the location of a meeting means anything? So every time a UK PM has to come to Brussels it means what? Does this sound like Boris out-maneuvered anyone?

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-and-irish-pm-meet-in-wedding-venue-for-last-ditch-brexit-talks-11832073

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49995133

I remember Twitter and r/ukpolitics at the time mostly reporting it as Varadkar spoon-feeding Boris on how things were anyway.

OK there should have been a smiley face.

Boris agreed to 'what no British Prime Minister would agree to' - a border down the Irish sea. That was some movement. The EU moved from a back stop to a front stop - which is what they wanted in the first place.

declanflynn

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well he did - he went to Cheshire.

Boris wanted Leo to come to London, but they ended up meeting in Cheshire, so both parties compromised

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

OK there should have been a smiley face.

Boris agreed to 'what no British Prime Minister would agree to' - a border down the Irish sea. That was some movement. The EU moved from a back stop to a front stop - which is what they wanted in the first place.

Several political analysts have speculated that Johnson didn't actually realise what he had signed up to. The 'towering intellectual' of the right wing press is actually a bit dense in real life with poor attention to detail.

From memory, I think even Ken Clarke was one of those putting forward this theory.

johnnyskeleton

Strazdas wrote: »

Several political analysts have speculated that Johnson didn't actually realise what he had signed up to. The 'towering intellectual' of the right wing press is actually a bit dense in real life with poor attention to detail.

From memory, I think even Ken Clarke was one of those putting forward this theory.

Who actually considers him a "towering intellectual", can I ask? He's always been a buffoon.

As far as I know, he also conceded on the £7bn the UK was due from the European Investment Bank too. As in, it was clear that May was negotiating for this to go back to the UK, but Boris just gave it up without a fight:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-gives-up-7bn-windfall-from-european-investment-bank-tq0qskgfc

Then there is also the "oven ready" deal, which he later claimed was entirely unfair on the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Several political analysts have speculated that Johnson didn't actually realise what he had signed up to. The 'towering intellectual' of the right wing press is actually a bit dense in real life with poor attention to detail.

From memory, I think even Ken Clarke was one of those putting forward this theory.

When you look past the classical education, the large words, the occasional Latin and the odd historical reference there is very little left. Sir Nicholas Soames once said that one should not conflate fluency and a moderately well cut suit with wisdom.

The thing with Johnson isn't that he's stupid. It's worse than that. He's vain, conceited, possibly narcissistic and monumentally lazy. Tim Shipman documents this well in his chronicle of the referendum All Out War. I often find myself wondering why he's Prime Minister. Surely he was better off trotting out hack pieces for the Telegraph about how the EU was going to ban wisdom teeth or something.

He has clearly outsourced himself to Cummings. This levelling up agenda is clearly a Cummings project and I don't see how it squares with leaving the EU without a deal in place by the end of the year. It's going to be a bad look when Britain goes for a second "lockdown" while the EU starts to return to normal.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

When you look past the classical education, the large words, the occasional Latin and the odd historical reference there is very little left. Sir Nicholas Soames once said that one should not conflate fluency and a moderately well cut suit with wisdom.

I do not think anyone can accuse Johnson of wearing a well cut suit. He hardly ever tucks his shirt into his trousers, and just ruffles his hair. Also, he is not very fluent - always bumbling and blustering. So zero points for feigning wisdom.

He is not good at detail - owing to his laziness. He does not get the big picture owing to his limited grasp of things outside Greco-Roman ancient history. So what is left? Not much, beyond bombast.

trellheim

He is not good at detail - owing to his laziness. He does not get the big picture owing to his limited grasp of things outside Greco-Roman ancient history. So what is left? Not much, beyond bombast.

He managed to get to be PM, and Mayor of London - hardly jobs you fall into, Jim Hacker aside . A lot of it is an act , granted . However I do not know what he stands for - which is a very different position from other Tory PMs like Major and Thatcher