Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

First Up

Igotadose wrote:

One of the twitter threads had this gem today: "Britannia waives the rules."

Not exactly a new one.

Leroy42

54and56 wrote: »

So let meet understand this.

The UK freely signs into law an international treaty cashed the WA and agrees a political declaration with the EU which sets out a framework for and key objectives to be achieved in the FTA negotiations including agreement on a level playing field, state aid, fisheries etc then refuses to negotiate these items and cries foul that the EU, who are sticking to the framework of the mutually agreed political declaration, are somehow being unfair and treating the UK poorly etc?

It is almost as if the brexiteers believe that simply agreeing to something, but then finding out that it isn't what you thought it was going to be is enough of a reason to have another go.

Which is strange, because up until now they have been very much of the mind that people know what they vote for and democracy is about not revisiting a decision.

Capt'n Midnight

UK government marks 'at least' £115m for new Brexit systems against backdrop of chequered IT project history in customs and border control

So the UK is putting up real money to sort out customs for Brexit ?

It's not much compared to recent overspends. And Brexit will have costs like this all over.

In 2015, the UK spending watchdog National Audit Office pointed out the Home Office had spent at least £830m between 2003 and 2015 on an e-borders programmes but had failed to deliver the full vision. In that time it spent £150m on the settlement with Raytheon and £35m on legal costs ending the contract with the firm.

...
In September last year, the Home Office signed a £45m, 33-month contract extension with IBM to cover the Brexit period.

...
Of course there was also another costly failure that would be remiss not to mention: HMRC’s Aspire contract with Capgemini, which cost £7.9bn between July 2004 and March 2014, and about which the NAO said: “HMRC was overly dependent on the technical capability of the Aspire suppliers between 2004 and 2012, which limited its ability to manage the contract commercially.”

£7.9bn :eek:

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'd say the UK has been very naive to think the EU would actually negotiate and not just dictate what will happen.
Possible grounds to claim an unfair contract?I'd guess the UK is exploring that option and its possible ramifications.

This is the conclusion you've managed to come around to after thread no. 12 on this subject?

declanflynn

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps you`re right although the proposed customs area in Kent and elsewhere could suggest the UK is preparing for no deal and not ready to lie back for anyone. Rejecting the WA terms would be very risky unless the UK can show the EU misled them although I imagine that option is/has been looked at.
As the leaving date approaches brexiteers may look at how European countries have tried to woo UK holidaymakers back despite covid still being active,money may talk louder than`we are the EU`mantras.I`m convinced there are some very unhappy european countries behind closed doors.

Dont worry mate, the absence of british thugs holidaying in European countries wont be a problem, it may even be welcomed

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

I did`nt want to leave and can`t see any advantage to brexit although I sometimes wonder do all those who voted to leave know something I don`t?

But what, they are just keeping it quiet for some strange reason?

Their are no benefits to Brexit, well not on a country scale. The very fact that the government is talking about spending £705m on infrastructure that will lead to 'opportunities' but unable even at this stage to give even one example of what that opportunities might be.

Remember this is the same government that prevaricated over the continuance of free meals for disadvantaged schools kids because of the cost only two weeks ago!

In terms of the costs of the bureaucracy (13bn is the estimate) that will no doubt be brushed aside by saying that it is simply movig money from the corporate sector to the government, which spends it back into the economy so it not really a cost at all. That argument never seems to stand up when used for unemployment, training, food banks, spending on building cladding etc.

listermint

plenty of benefits for developers and vulture funds buying up land from broken farms and houses out from under jobless people.

The economic cost to the working person and even retired people is going to be gargantuan.

The whole i dont agree with brexit speel but.. argument is actually shocking with the backdrop of the job losses that are going to occur. Swathes of the country in turmoil. See what the town centres look like after this.

But project fear ... or some such.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

plenty of benefits for developers and vulture funds buying up land from broken farms and houses out from under jobless people.

The economic cost to the working person and even retired people is going to be gargantuan.

The whole i dont agree with brexit speel but.. argument is actually shocking with the backdrop of the job losses that are going to occur. Swathes of the country in turmoil. See what the town centres look like after this.

But project fear ... or some such.

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

listermint

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

No no, the definitely will. Thats disingenuous to say the least. Those last vestiges of employment will be wiped out. The local shopping centre - gone. High street gone. Large regional factories - gone. Not to mention farming.


Everyone will be impacted.

RobMc59

listermint wrote: »

plenty of benefits for developers and vulture funds buying up land from broken farms and houses out from under jobless people.

The economic cost to the working person and even retired people is going to be gargantuan.

The whole i dont agree with brexit speel but.. argument is actually shocking with the backdrop of the job losses that are going to occur. Swathes of the country in turmoil. See what the town centres look like after this.

But project fear ... or some such.

Putting my patriotic feelings aside,I can't see anything good about brexit.
As a frequent visitor to Ireland I'm worse off financially with sterling plummeting post 2016.UK qualifications which would have stood me in good stead probably won't be recognized now,so no ifs or buts from me in defence of the indefensible brexit.

listermint

RobMc59 wrote: »

Putting my patriotic feelings aside,I can't see anything good about brexit.
As a frequent visitor to Ireland I'm worse off financially with sterling plummeting post 2016.UK qualifications which would have stood me in good stead probably won't be recognized now,so no buts from me in defence of the indefensible brexit.

But the patriotic is a red herring.

Patriotism would be full on antibrexit. Its tearing the country apart and down. The UK as an entity is losing in all sectors.

listermint

Actually i would go as far as saying if anyone was indeed Patriotic, they would dedicate their time rooting out and exposing the individuals that are tyranically trying to rip the very fabric of UK democracy down. That includes media organisations pulling at the fabric of UK society. Its completely Anti UK.

This laissez faire attitude in relation to brexit and then claiming to be pro UK are completely at odds.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

Which parts?

Cheensbo

Leroy42 wrote: »

Which parts?

Windsor, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc.

Leroy42

Cheensbo wrote: »

Windsor, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc.

So they had no dealings with exports or people did not ever travel? There was no FDI? They didn't use foreign workers in ay of those areas?

Cheensbo

Leroy42 wrote: »

So they had no dealings with exports or people did not ever travel? There was no FDI? They didn't use foreign workers in ay of those areas?

It was a joke, based on the possible residential areas for the small few that will benefit from Brexit...

Lemming

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

listermint wrote: »

No no, the definitely will. Thats disingenuous to say the least. Those last vestiges of employment will be wiped out. The local shopping centre - gone. High street gone. Large regional factories - gone. Not to mention farming.

Everyone will be impacted.

No matter how sh1t things might appear to be in parts of the UK, it can always get much, much worse. Never be in doubt of that.

Plenty of former 'pit' villages and sink-hole estates dotted around me in Yorkshire that can stand testament to that. Considering that social welfare assistance (and state pensions) in the UK are a fraction of the Irish system, combined with an enthusiastically applied draconian benefits sanction system, not to begin mentioning the farce that is the "universal credit" system, imagine how much worse matters can get if all the above - despite its warts and all - starts getting squeezed further between an increased demand due to more job losses and a decrease in service budgets because the councils have no money and the government is cutting spending.

Just to add some perspective; the job seekers allowance for 2020 is (for those over 25) £74 p/week.

It can always get worse. Much worse.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Which parts?

To me, it's not parts in terms of geography but of demographics though most of these will be based in London and the southeast of the country.

I'm referring to those people working in services like IT, banking, insurance, pensions, investments, etc along with the traditional middle classes like doctors, engineers and scientists. These people will probably be fine for the most part. Even for me, the worst case scenario is that I'll have to try and get a pharma job in Ireland. I'd prefer not to leave the UK but I won't be living in penury. As usual, it'll be those with the least wealth and power who pay for Brexit.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

To me, it's not parts in terms of geography but of demographics though most of these will be based in London and the southeast of the country.

I'm referring to those people working in services like IT, banking, insurance, pensions, investments, etc along with the traditional middle classes like doctors, engineers and scientists. These people will probably be fine for the most part. Even for me, the worst case scenario is that I'll have to try and get a pharma job in Ireland. I'd prefer not to leave the UK but I won't be living in penury. As usual, it'll be those with the least wealth and power who pay for Brexit.

Id disagree, Unless Services is sorted out, The traditional middle class jobs will be absolutely hit. And it may / will result in emigration. Not Immigration

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

Id disagree, Unless Services is sorted out, The traditional middle class jobs will be absolutely hit. And it may / will result in emigration. Not Immigration

Of course but these people will at least have that as an option. It's the unskilled element of the working class who'll get his even harder in my opinion. We're already seeing that with Covid.

Sam Russell

Cheensbo wrote: »

Windsor, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc.

Where are Honda based? Just 2 km west of Oxfordshire. And BMW Mini? Oxfordshire.

Nowhere is safe.

Perhaps Windsor Castle. I wonder who lives there?

Cheensbo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Where are Honda based? Just 2 km west of Oxfordshire. And BMW Mini? Oxfordshire.

Nowhere is safe.

Perhaps Windsor Castle. I wonder who lives there?

Hey, stop dissecting my post, you are project fear.

( My post has got about as much foundation & integrity as Brexit itself )

54and56

listermint wrote: »

Id disagree, Unless Services is sorted out, The traditional middle class jobs will be absolutely hit. And it may / will result in emigration. Not Immigration

It's not so easy for professionals to emigrate when their qualifications aren't reciprocally recognised!!

Sam Russell

Cheensbo wrote: »

Hey, stop dissecting my post, you are project fear.

( My post has got about as much foundation & integrity as Brexit itself )

I was just pointing out that nowhere is going to escape from Brexit. There is no project fear - except fear itself.

The reality must be dawning on the UK Gov, as the deadline draws near. They are suddenly moving on the reality of C&E requirements at Dover by procurring large areas of land to park their lorries on, and proposals re NI. Allocating real funds, and hiring real people (or proposing to - not sure they know how many though).

Of course, the NI problem could be solved easily by just closing the ports of Larne, and Belfast, and just get everything to go through Dublin - 60% does anyway.

The cost of paperwork alone for C&E will cripple most businesses if they can only find people who know how to do it.

Leroy42

It is actually amazing to watch the lack of any real pushback on the announcements over the last few days/weeks.

First they had the admission that NI would be subject to border controls, then they have the admission that Kent, and 10 other sites, were going to have to contain lorry parks. £705m was going t0 be spent on all these new systems (and nobody can have any confidence that this is even remotely what the final costs will be) and then yesterday the government starts their media blitz by telling everyone that travel insurance is going to rise, pet passports are now 4 months (at least) 13bn in export custom costs and that the HoC is taking back some of the devolved powers from Scotland and Wales.

But hardly a murmur from the media.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is actually amazing to watch the lack of any real pushback on the announcements over the last few days/weeks.

First they had the admission that NI would be subject to border controls, then they have the admission that Kent, and 10 other sites, were going to have to contain lorry parks. £705m was going t0 be spent on all these new systems (and nobody can have any confidence that this is even remotely what the final costs will be) and then yesterday the government starts their media blitz by telling everyone that travel insurance is going to rise, pet passports are now 4 months (at least) 13bn in export custom costs and that the HoC is taking back some of the devolved powers from Scotland and Wales.

But hardly a murmur from the media.

Yeah I was wondering about that. My thinking is that pro Brexit papers don't want to draw attention to these problems and anti Brexit papers have decided that a sudden shock in 2021 is the best medicine.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

No no, the definitely will. Thats disingenuous to say the least. Those last vestiges of employment will be wiped out. The local shopping centre - gone. High street gone. Large regional factories - gone. Not to mention farming.


Everyone will be impacted.

In many of those areas the decline has been going on for decades, they're already as low as they can get. Don't forget that the likes of supermarkets & pound shops will always be there, people need to eat and buy basics, they won't disappear, unless the place depopulates.

Irish Praetorian

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The middle class might not initially notice they are also getting poorer

Take an engineer 5 years ago on 50K GBP increasing at 2K per year

2015 - 50k GBP == 72.5k EUR
2020 - 60k GBP == 55.5k EUR

he/she thinks they are moving up in world, but his/her world is sinking due to Brexit making the pound more volatile than Mexican Peso

Um, I might be mistaken but wouldn't the latter conversion rate suggest 1GBP to be worth less than 1 euro? I mean it would be closer to 90c in that latter calculation but the current rate seems to be 1GBP to 1.10 EUR.

ambro25

54and56 wrote: »

It's not so easy for professionals to emigrate when their qualifications aren't reciprocally recognised!!

I've had to explain to my boss this week, why there'd no point moving an EU27 with UK professional quals currently working at one of our UK branches, over to us on the Continent to help the group 'get Brexit-ready for 2021'.

4+ years, that I've been posting/warning/sharing about it.

2.5 years, since I left the UK over it.

2.4 years, that I've been explaining to the new boss (filtering upwards to the fingers-in-the-ears UK overbosses).

5 months to go.

Shrug, yawn, etc.

CelticRambler

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So in pound terms their salary kept increasing but in just about every major currency they are actually poorer, i just picked the euro as we can related to, pounds downfall been epic against pretty much every currency.

Another way of looking at the same point is how the Brexit promise of lower prices if the UK was no longer shackled to the EU was immediately undermined: on referendum day, 1 GBP bought 1.4893USD ; four years later, on 23rd June 2020 1 GBP was worth only $1.2518USD. That means that your side of American beef or your magnificent MAGA widget, or indeed anything else priced in USofA dollars has increased in price by 15%. Any half-decent trade deal would be doing well to deliver that kind of saving under normal circumstances; with a crack team of negotiators delivering 15% savings across the board, the UK will only get themselves back to where they started .... but at least they'll have their very very very dark blue (French-made) passports to fill up with ETIAS stamps.