Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

schmoo2k · 25-07-2020 06:52PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

I notice though you have to travel through France to get to Monaco, one of the 15, would you not have to quarantine if you had to go through and back through France.

You don't have to - just most folks can't (where did I leave my super yacht).

polesheep · 25-07-2020 06:53PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

The advise is essential travel only. If you must travel for essential reasons, quarantine/restricted movement isn’t required upon returning from a green list country

That is a blatant lie. The information is there on DFA.ie in black and white. The green list countries are exempted from the essential travel only advice.

DaSilva · 25-07-2020 06:53PM

DaSilva wrote: »

After listening to this episode of TWiV I thought I should share this as I believe its actually a solution to most of the current problems like opening schools and pubs.

If we had a perfect instant test that with 100% certainty could tell if you were infected or not we would not need any restrictions at all, and I suspect we might even eradicate the virus before a vaccine is ready.

We don't have this test, but apparently we do have something pretty close. Tests that could be very cheap ($1-$10) with quick results (minutes not hours) but with reduced sensitivity. What does the reduced sensitivity mean? It means possible false negatives, people who do have the virus but the test says they don't. This seems like a fatal flaw, but a low sensitivity test might actually be failing to detect infected people who are very unlikely to spread, and if the test was performed every day, the false negative testers would quickly be detected on subsequent tests when they are a bigger risk.

The idea is, tests we could administer to ourselves and our children at home that are less sensitive but with quick results and cheap so we can perform them frequently is much more effective than contact tracing slow turnaround tests. I think this approach would let us dramatically reduce restrictions while also reducing risk.

All this info comes from my layman's understanding of the following podcast which I encourage people to watch
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/

Unfortunately the thread got merged in here way back in the thread, though nobody had replied yet, but maybe I wasn't clear in the original post.

If the ideas in this paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309v2
which are discussed in this podcast: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/
are correct

Then we can open up schools, pubs, maybe even travel, pretty much everything up without an increase in risk, probably even lower risk than the situation currently.

The long and short is, the low quality tests might miss people who are infected, but it wont miss people who are infectious, and they can be made very very cheaply and performed without lab equipment and give results in minutes!

You could in theory test your kids in the morning before sending them to school, get tested before entering a premises, etc...

This is the biggest breakthrough short of a vaccine/therapy

FionnK86 · 25-07-2020 06:57PM

Lots with their masks on today, and numbers not crazy high. Very thankful these days to live in a semi-normal country.

expectationlost · 25-07-2020 07:18PM

polesheep wrote: »

That is a blatant lie. The information is there on DFA.ie in black and white. The green list countries are exempted from the essential travel only advice.

YUP

In accordance with Government policy, which is based on official public health advice, the Department of Foreign Affairs continues to advise against non-essential travel overseas. This includes Great Britain but does not apply to Northern Ireland. It also includes all travel by cruise ship. However, as of 21 July, travel to a very limited set of locations is exempted from this advice. The security status for those locations to which non-essential travel can resume has been changed to ‘normal precautions’ (“green”) rating. Individuals arriving in Ireland from these locations will not be required to restrict their movements on arrival

https://www.dfa.ie/

Plumbthedepths · 25-07-2020 07:25PM

polesheep wrote: »

That is a blatant lie. The information is there on DFA.ie in black and white. The green list countries are exempted from the essential travel only advice.

In fairness the poster may have listened to the politicians or RTE can't blame them for repeating what they heard.
The DFA should be the only source people use for truthful information.

DebDynamite · 25-07-2020 07:27PM

expectationlost wrote: »

YUP
https://www.dfa.ie/

This part further down is confusing though, and seems to be contradictory to the part you posted:

What to do on entering Ireland from abroad:

The Irish Authorities require anyone coming into Ireland, apart from Northern Ireland and individuals arriving in Ireland from locations with a security rating of ‘normal precautions’ (“green”), to restrict their movements for 14 days, and this includes citizens and residents returning to Ireland. Restricting your movements means staying indoors in one location and avoiding contact with other people and social situations as much as possible. To ensure that this is being observed all passengers arriving to Ireland from overseas are obliged to complete a mandatory Public Health Passenger Locator Form and to submit it to the relevant authority at their port of entry. For further details please see the Irish Government Advice Page. Exemptions are also in place for providers of essential supply chain services such as hauliers, pilots and maritime staff. Check the Irish Government Advice Page for full information on these requirements.

polesheep · 25-07-2020 07:30PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

This part further down is confusing though:

What to do on entering Ireland from abroad:

The Irish Authorities require anyone coming into Ireland, apart from Northern Ireland and individuals arriving in Ireland from locations with a security rating of ‘normal precautions’ (“green”)[/U], to restrict their movements for 14 days, and this includes citizens and residents returning to Ireland. Restricting your movements means staying indoors in one location and avoiding contact with other people and social situations as much as possible. To ensure that this is being observed all passengers arriving to Ireland from overseas are obliged to complete a mandatory Public Health Passenger Locator Form and to submit it to the relevant authority at their port of entry. For further details please see the Irish Government Advice Page. Exemptions are also in place for providers of essential supply chain services such as hauliers, pilots and maritime staff. Check the Irish Government Advice Page for full information on these requirements.

How is that confusing? "Apart from".

DebDynamite · 25-07-2020 07:31PM

polesheep wrote: »

How is that confusing?

They’re saying if you’re coming from a green country to restrict your movements

Plumbthedepths · 25-07-2020 07:31PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

They’re saying if you’re coming from a green country to restrict your movements

They are not it's quite clear.

https://www.dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/

DebDynamite · 25-07-2020 07:34PM

Sorry all, I re-read it. I get ya

darjeeling · 25-07-2020 07:34PM

DaSilva wrote: »

Unfortunately the thread got merged in here way back in the thread, though nobody had replied yet, but maybe I wasn't clear in the original post.

If the ideas in this paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.22.20136309v2
which are discussed in this podcast: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/
are correct

Then we can open up schools, pubs, maybe even travel, pretty much everything up without an increase in risk, probably even lower risk than the situation currently.

The long and short is, the low quality tests might miss people who are infected, but it wont miss people who are infectious, and they can be made very very cheaply and performed without lab equipment and give results in minutes!

You could in theory test your kids in the morning before sending them to school, get tested before entering a premises, etc...

This is the biggest breakthrough short of a vaccine/therapy

Having listened to the podcast and read the paper myself, I agree that a fast, cheap, good-enough non-lab test for the virus could be a very useful public health tool in preventing outbreaks as we reopen schools, colleges and workplaces.

Unfortunately, though, this area of testing hasn't been developed as rapidly as it should have been, in part because of some early unfavourable comparisons of rapid tests to the more sensitive PCR tests.

While developing a test sounds straightforward in principle, I can see delays in getting approval by the regulatory bodies, ramping up mass production, shipping tests out to point of use, and putting in place systems for using them in different workplaces, schools etc.
That means I can't see a test making a difference within the next few months, but maybe towards the end of the year or the beginning of 2021.

As far as I know there's only one existing antigen test that's US FDA approved, and even that test (from Quidel) uses a moderately expensive small benchtop machine to generate results.
The test works along the lines of what is needed - using an antibody to detect a viral surface protein - but uses a fluorescent label for detection in a machine rather than giving an output that can be read by the human eye.
What's really needed is a 'paper strip' test (a visual lateral flow test).
These kinds of tests are already widely used for all sorts of diagnostic assays, including SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests, and they are produced by many different manufacturers.

Ideally the test would work using just a saliva sample.
We've already seen evidence that saliva can work just as well as nasal / throat swabs for PCR tests for viral RNA (albeit only swab tests are approved), so hopefully it will also be as good a source of viral protein.

There are also a couple of rapid tests for viral RNA, but again these require small benchtop machines (e.g. Abbott's ID NOW SARS-CoV-2 test, using isothermal amplification).

Rob A. Bank · 25-07-2020 07:35PM

Public Health England (PHE) puts figures on the lethal effect of obesity in Covid-19 infections

LONDON (Reuters) - People who are obese or overweight are at increased risk of death or severe illness from COVID-19, a report by Public Health England (PHE) said on Saturday...

PHE said data showed that for people with a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30-35, risk of death from COVID-19 increased by 40%, and it increased by 90% for those with a BMI over 40 compared to those of a healthy weight.

People with a BMI of over 30 are classed as obese under the system. PHE said that almost 63% of adults in England are overweight or obese.

And how do we compare ?

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Answer :- not well !

Plumbthedepths · 25-07-2020 07:35PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

Sorry all, I re-read it. I get ya :one

Not your fault , the government has been as clear as a foggy night.
Thankfully those in the DFA are more concise.

What Username Guidelines · 25-07-2020 07:38PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Public Health England (PHE) puts figures on the lethal effect of obesity in Covid-19 infections

LONDON (Reuters) - People who are obese or overweight are at increased risk of death or severe illness from COVID-19, a report by Public Health England (PHE) said on Saturday...

PHE said data showed that for people with a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30-35, risk of death from COVID-19 increased by 40%, and it increased by 90% for those with a BMI over 40 compared to those of a healthy weight.

People with a BMI of over 30 are classed as obese under the system. PHE said that almost 63% of adults in England are overweight or obese.

And how do we compare ?

Answer :- not well !

Mental that there’s 60% overweight or obese.

Plumbthedepths · 25-07-2020 07:39PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Public Health England (PHE) puts figures on the lethal effect of obesity in Covid-19 infections

LONDON (Reuters) - People who are obese or overweight are at increased risk of death or severe illness from COVID-19, a report by Public Health England (PHE) said on Saturday...

PHE said data showed that for people with a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30-35, risk of death from COVID-19 increased by 40%, and it increased by 90% for those with a BMI over 40 compared to those of a healthy weight.

People with a BMI of over 30 are classed as obese under the system. PHE said that almost 63% of adults in England are overweight or obese.

And how do we compare ?

Answer :- not well !

So basically people whom are fat may experience health issues . Not really a shock now is it?
Irelands growing obesity rates were well flagged before Covid, we even saw a sugar tax implemented.

25-07-2020 07:59PM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its confusing people, people are being encouraged not to fly abroad, then a list was created of safe countries to travel to

Countries where you dont have to quarantine on returning from. Key difference

Santy2015 · 25-07-2020 08:00PM

Interesting paper on possible treatments for Covid
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/sbpm-nsi072320.php

ShineOn7 · 25-07-2020 08:03PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

Interesting paper on possible treatments for Covid
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/sbpm-nsi072320.php

What's the short version?

Looking good?

Feck the vaccine. Treatments will get there first

Santy2015 · 25-07-2020 08:10PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What's the short version?

Looking good?

Feck the vaccine. Treatments will get there first

From my understanding off it looks like treatment first then vaccine. Luke o neill tweeted it.
https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1287075675304857600?s=21

Rob A. Bank · 25-07-2020 08:12PM

How the U.S. Compares With the World’s Worst Coronavirus Hot Spots

A good scrolling interactive info-graphic on the pandemic in the worst affected countries.

Why we are allowing people from the ten worst affected countries entry here is absolute madness, as the case numbers increase by 1,000,000 over the last 4 days to over 16,000,000.

caveat emptor · 25-07-2020 08:12PM

Think we need to face reality at some stage and try get rid of this thing.

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1287083657929334785?s=21

hmmm · 25-07-2020 09:13PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Feck the vaccine. Treatments will get there first

We need both.

timsey tiger · 25-07-2020 09:17PM

hmmm wrote: »

We need both.

I'd rather take a vaccine than a treatment

Prevention is better than cure after all.

KrustyUCC · 25-07-2020 10:12PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Public Health England (PHE) puts figures on the lethal effect of obesity in Covid-19 infections

LONDON (Reuters) - People who are obese or overweight are at increased risk of death or severe illness from COVID-19, a report by Public Health England (PHE) said on Saturday...

PHE said data showed that for people with a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30-35, risk of death from COVID-19 increased by 40%, and it increased by 90% for those with a BMI over 40 compared to those of a healthy weight.

People with a BMI of over 30 are classed as obese under the system. PHE said that almost 63% of adults in England are overweight or obese.

And how do we compare ?

Answer :- not well !

That has been a big issue with Covid deaths amongst BAME community

caveat emptor · 25-07-2020 10:24PM

Question.Why are offices not returning to normal service but schools are?

Is there a difference in safety?

Young children may not be affected as much as older people but they have potential to propagate the virus.

I presume that’s why they decided to close the schools in the first place.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1286902316289884165?s=21

ShineOn7 · 25-07-2020 10:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

We need both.

The vaccine is the biggest carrot on a stick the world has ever seen

I'd be willing to bet 500 euros we still won't have a working vaccine by 2022. And I'm confident I'd win the bet too

Martina1991 · 25-07-2020 10:26PM

DaSilva wrote:

If the ideas in this paper:
which are discussed in this podcast:
are correct
Then we can open up schools, pubs, maybe even travel, pretty much everything up without an increase in risk, probably even lower risk than the situation currently.

The long and short is, the low quality tests might miss people who are infected, but it wont miss people who are infectious, and they can be made very very cheaply and performed without lab equipment and give results in minutes!
You could in theory test your kids in the morning before sending them to school, get tested before entering a premises, etc...

That paper is a statistical model based on a hypothesis.

It should also be noted that it is from the US where the virus is out of control and Trump plans to open up schools next month. It may be a useful way to prevent new infections, but its like using buckets of water to put out a house fire.

Testing wont stop the spread of the virus. Social distancing, PPE and hand hygiene stop this virus.

For Ireland, our test, track and trace is working very well. Our cases are localised mainly to clusters and households.

PCR using nasopharengyl swabs is the gold standard method. We dont need to sacrifice accuracy for something quick and cheap that isn't needed. You also can't control the performance or compliance of every citizen to perform a home test each day.

We're a month into phase 3 and schools will open as planned. People thought bank holidays, good weather and pubs would ruin our progress, but it hasn't.

I trust the system.

Leftwaffe · 25-07-2020 10:43PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The vaccine is the biggest carrot on a stick the world has ever seen

I'd be willing to bet 500 euros we still won't have a working vaccine by 2022. And I'm confident I'd win the bet too

Do you have expertise in this area? Genuine question.

Judging by the experts speaking about the Oxford vaccine, I'd say that one will be in widespread distribution by the middle of next year. However, I don't know much about it.

Seems to be a lot of confidence in that one, even from the most negative

I'll chose to be optimistic.

hmmm · 25-07-2020 10:44PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

I'd rather take a vaccine than a treatment

Prevention is better than cure after all.

Agreed, that's why we need both. A treatment that will help someone out when they're gasping for air in a hospital would be great, but in the ideal world none of us would have to go through that.

I'd be willing to bet 500 euros we still won't have a working vaccine by 2022. And I'm confident I'd win the bet too

Not sure what exactly you're basing that on, but good for you. I'm hoping to be getting a vaccination in Q2 of next year, possibly even earlier, and probably needing another one later in the year or in 2022 to give long-term protection.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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