Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

lukas8888 · 17-07-2020 08:21PM

Polar101 wrote: »

I'm not saying we will have 200 cases in 3 weeks, or whether there was a meeting or not.

But.. which do you think is a better way to run a hospital?

1) Make preparations in case there is an increase of Covid patients
2) Do nothing, because it is rubbish

Fair enough,but were they all not Covid ready 4 months ago.

Go Home Paddy Cat!! · 17-07-2020 08:21PM

YellowBucket wrote: »

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

Im posting on page 666 of this thread... oh jaysus.

Anyway...

Was in a large store today and shag all people were wearing face masks. Then on the way home, a bus pulled up beside me in traffic and one arsehole on the bus was sitting there with his mask pulled down below his chin.. I was dumbfounded. Then I realised that expending energy being wound up by the apathy of others is futile and that the only important thing that matters is keeping myself safe. So what if numbers go up? Ill continue getting on with my life in a way that keeps me and the people around me, safe. The only people I feel for are our health care workers who will have to deal with the ramifications of the actions of these obstinate plebs, who choose not to follow simple guidelines.

Ill never forget part 1 of the covid documentary on RTE1 when I witnessed poor Joe in ICU being induced into a 12 coma after he caught covid.

I'll never forget lovely nurse Emma at the end saying ahe could never go through this ordeal again.

Those are images that will stay with me forever.

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-07-2020 08:25PM

Ok so if we are doing 9,500 tests in a day what is the false positive rate of these tests? It's possible that if 10k non infected people were tested some would come back positive.

Is my logic correct?

I know there will also be false negatives but we are really at the margins when we have 34 positives out of almost 10k tests.

Spanish Eyes · 17-07-2020 08:26PM

I am no saint, but am observing all the rules as best I can.

However when out and about there is very little heed being taken of social distancing and mask wearing in shops for example. I did venture out to Aldi a few weeks ago and it was very organised. Now, it's a free for all, and I also have a Dunnes and Supervalu too, same thing.

Back to online with SuperValu so. They have nice things has to be said, and if you ain't got anywhere to go really, well spend it on nice things.

Amazon have been very bad with deliveries to ROI, but I think that's improving a bit now. I would love there to be a portal for Irish companies online, someone should do it. It's a right pain to have to trawl through every website separately. Might even introduce competition if all similar goods are priced.

I think the time of being totally browned off has arrived. I am not a quitter, am hoping for the best, but honestly any glimmer of hope is turned to dust next day, and off we go again.

ixoy · 17-07-2020 08:30PM

Boggles wrote: »

On a positive note, I was out and about earlier, and from I saw the majority of people are now wearing masks, hopefully that turns in the the vast majority soon.

Really? Where was this and was it indoors or outdoors? It's not anything I've seen and didn't reflect the city centre as it was on Wednesday.

JP Liz V1 · 17-07-2020 08:30PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Well who'd have thought our capital and most populated city would have the most cases? It's like that's where a load of people live. Didn't take Poirot to solve that one.

Pink Panther solved

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 08:33PM

YellowBucket wrote: »

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

Which part of Cork is this? I've been in Mahon Point and Douglas Court in the last week and most are distancing and wearing masks.

Icantthinkof1 · 17-07-2020 08:38PM

I went to our local shop there (urban area) counted 7 of us in the shop. 5 were wearing masks- only 2 weren’t.
At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

Boggles · 17-07-2020 08:38PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I know there will also be false negatives but we are really at the margins when we have 34 positives out of almost 10k tests.

It doesn't matter if today produced one positive or a 100.

They look at 5/7/14 day trends.

They are all trending upwards.

If it continues we will have 40-50 next week, 50-70 the week after and then any number below 200 either in week 3 or 4. (rough maths)

We are then back to national restrictions.

If we can stop it trending up, and got back to something like

Monday 14
Tueday 27
Wednesday 9
Thursday 19
Friday 25

We should be grand.

Some countries in Europe had a bit of a spike after opening and settled down again, unfortunately they all had mandatory mask usage long before they opened up.

Every country will be unique in some way.

JP Liz V1 · 17-07-2020 08:39PM

Besides many tourists, Dingle also has a funfair, I thought these with circus and festivals would be a big no no

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-07-2020 08:44PM

Boggles wrote: »

It doesn't matter if today produced one positive or a 100.

They look at 5/7/14 day trends.

They are all trending upwards.

If it continues we will have 40-50 next week, 50-70 the week after and then any number below 200 either in week 3 or 4. (rough maths)

We are then back to national restrictions.

If we can stop it trending up, and got back to something like

Monday 14
Tueday 27
Wednesday 9
Thursday 19
Friday 25

We should be grand.

Some countries in Europe had a bit of a spike after opening and settled down again, unfortunately they all had mandatory mask usage long before they opened up.

Every country will be unique in some way.

I agree and I understand all this. I am interested in understanding the level of false positives based on increased testing. If we took an entirely unaffected population and tested them at an increasing rate each day the number of positive tests would also increase proportionately each day despite the fact that zero people were infected.

It is something to consider in my opinion and interested in people's thoughts.

Gruffalux · 17-07-2020 08:49PM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

I went to our local shop there (urban area) counted 7 of us in the shop. 5 were wearing masks- only 2 weren’t.
At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

BringBackMick · 17-07-2020 08:49PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I agree and I understand all this. I am interested in understanding the level of false positives based on increased testing. If we took an entirely unaffected population and tested them at an increasing rate each day the number of positive tests would also increase proportionately each day despite the fact that zero people were infected.

It is something to consider in my opinion and interested in people's thoughts.

I was thinking about this also. Surely with 10,000 tests there are going to be false positives, but i guess the false negatives and false positives would negate eachother?

I don't know if there has been a study on any bias in the numbers.

Anyway, the fact that almost 10,000 tests were carried out in last 24 hours and we had about 30 cases is very good really and absolutely nothing to be scared about.

Ficheall · 17-07-2020 08:50PM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

PM sent.

Boggles · 17-07-2020 08:52PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Anyway, the fact that almost 10,000 tests were carried out in last 24 hours and we had about 30 cases is very good really and absolutely nothing to be scared about.

No one is concerned with 30 cases in one day.

The concern is with the trend.

Ficheall · 17-07-2020 08:54PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I was thinking about this also. Surely with 10,000 tests there are going to be false positives, but i guess the false negatives and false positives would negate eachother?

I don't know if there has been a study on any bias in the numbers.

Anyway, the fact that almost 10,000 tests were carried out in last 24 hours and we had about 30 cases is very good really and absolutely nothing to be scared about.

The false negatives won't cancel out the false positives when things are so disproportionate. Eg - if positives and negatives were both equally likely to be false (say 10%), if you had 1000 actually positive cases and 100 actually negative cases, you'd expect 100 false negatives and only 10 false positives.

This is an oversimplification, obviously, but it illustrates why falses won't catch each other out, all other things being equal.

Wolf359f · 17-07-2020 08:55PM

Boggles wrote: »

It doesn't matter if today produced one positive or a 100.

They look at 5/7/14 day trends.

They are all trending upwards.

If it continues we will have 40-50 next week, 50-70 the week after and then any number below 200 either in week 3 or 4. (rough maths)

We are then back to national restrictions.

If we can stop it trending up, and got back to something like

Monday 14
Tueday 27
Wednesday 9
Thursday 19
Friday 25

We should be grand.

Some countries in Europe had a bit of a spike after opening and settled down again, unfortunately they all had mandatory mask usage long before they opened up.

Every country will be unique in some way.

We can't stop it trending up next week unfortunately. As the acting CMO said, the seeds for next weeks numbers have already been sown.
I'm hoping it's just a blip, trying to stay a little positive.

ShineOn7 · 17-07-2020 08:55PM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

I remember the great days of Boards when we'd all be riding each other (mid to late 2000s)

But I don't think now is a great time for a revival

JP Liz V1 · 17-07-2020 08:57PM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

I went to our local shop there (urban area) counted 7 of us in the shop. 5 were wearing masks- only 2 weren’t.
At this stage I’d wear a bridle and reins if it helped

ROTFL

What ever you are into

is_that_so · 17-07-2020 08:57PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I'll be called thick, but I don't get this - if it's not a concern why the advice not to:

Dr Glynn again urged people to holiday at home. However, Dr Glynn said they would not be "unduly concerned, from a public health perspective" about someone going to and from countries on the new 'Green List' - due to be published on Monday.

"Our message remains, though, for people to avoid all non-essential travel."

Only travel if you have to but we're OK with the Green List if you do.

Sierra Oscar · 17-07-2020 09:03PM

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms

The number of people in Dublin presenting with Covid-like symptoms is approaching figures similar to March before the surge happened, a well-known GP has warned.

Dr Maitiu O Tuathail, former president of the National Association of General Practitioners (NAGP), said he referred 12 patients for Covid testing on Friday morning.

Worrying, to say the least.

Martina1991 · 17-07-2020 09:05PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote:

If we took an entirely unaffected population and tested them at an increasing rate each day the number of positive tests would also increase proportionately each day despite the fact that zero people were infected.

Why would a group of uninfected people suddenly test positive in increasing numbers. That doesn't make sense.

PCR testing is incredibly sensitive and specific. Bits of RNA called primers are added to each sample and will only bind to the RNA specific to SARS-CoV-2. The chances of getting a false positive are extremely minimal.

Icantthinkof1 · 17-07-2020 09:05PM

Ficheall wrote: »

PM sent.

Haha skitting! I draw the line at wearing a saddle though, I have my limits!
On a serious note some people’s minds here are in the gutters; for shame!!

Gruffalux · 17-07-2020 09:06PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms

Worrying, to say the least.

Apparently we are to pay no attention at all to Maitiù, because he has glamorous notions of himself. So I read in this thread anyway.

Away With The Fairies · 17-07-2020 09:09PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

GPs warn of surge in cases in Dublin presenting with Covid symptoms

Worrying, to say the least.

That's only 1 GP as well.

That and people are waiting a few days before going for testing. The problem with waiting is that it's harder to pick up positives.

God knows what the true rate of infection is.

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-07-2020 09:09PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Why would a group of uninfected people suddenly test positive in increasing numbers. That doesn't make sense.

Thanks. For example a false positive rate of 1% will have one positive in 100 tests but 10 positives in 1000 tests.

The thesis is that a million tests will get more false positives than a thousand tests. So as testing increases the extremely minimal chances of false positives also increase.

It may be nothing but it is something I was thinking about earlier in the increased testing discussions.

stephenjmcd · 17-07-2020 09:14PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

That's only 1 GP as well.

That and people are waiting a few days before going for testing. The problem with waiting is that it's harder to pick up positives.

God knows what the true rate of infection is.

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

Away With The Fairies · 17-07-2020 09:20PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

I hope you're right and it's just hayfever but you can't be too safe.

stephenjmcd · 17-07-2020 09:23PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope you're right and it's just hayfever but you can't be too safe.

To be honest with you I've had hayfever for the last few years and this summer has by far been the worst, first time I've asked the doctor to give me something on prescription because the over the counter stuff was doing nothing.

But yeah seems to be if you contact a GP with anything they'll send you on.

Not sure if they're still getting paid my the state for each referral, they were at the start.

SeaBreezes · 17-07-2020 09:26PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Had a look at his twitter earlier and there were replies from other GPs in Dublin saying they aren't seeing similar. Other people replying saying they've a test tomorrow and they've hayfever symptoms.

You really do have to wonder what GPs are referring on. I've said it here before my own GP is literally offering anyone a test who wants one

As they should?

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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