Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

14-07-2020 06:14PM

I've gone through the stigma of being in a country where people blame you for the virus because of how you look or sound. It's not enjoyable but for American tourists in Ireland now, it is very deserved.

JP Liz V1 · 14-07-2020 06:15PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Correct, as my neighbour died of it, as did a friend of my daughter.

Not sure what your point is.

I'm very sorry Jim

14-07-2020 06:16PM

The carrier didn't know they had it in the Killarney cluster, that wasn't reported correctly

Micky 32 · 14-07-2020 06:16PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I thought the carrier knew they were positive but still came to Kerry to party, disgraceful, should be fined as punishment

Meanwhile people travelling to europe..... the shock and horror, oh wait, someone travelled within the country and spread it??

ACitizenErased · 14-07-2020 06:20PM

Zonda999 wrote: »

We have more than doubled the tests in the first 14 days fo July versus the last 14 days of June

As you say the positivity rate has stayed the same. I have not heard once in the media about the increase in testing in this timeframe or the rate of positivity not changing

Doesn’t fit the media’s narrative - none of them deal in statistics.

tom1ie · 14-07-2020 06:25PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

To be honest at this stage I've no idea about a weekend lag, up until recently it looked like deaths had a lag yes, cases not so much but since Saturday the daily postives added and daily confirmed cases announced haven't equaled and they've been out by a bit.

Will probably have to wait for the county data tomorrow and Thursday

Stephen where are you seeing the daily positives added vs the daily confirmed cases? Is that the tracker stats vs what’s announced on rte?
It’s a bit flippin confusing tbh.

Zonda999 · 14-07-2020 06:26PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Doesn’t fit the media’s narrative - none of them deal in statistics.

I agree completely.

It annoys me when I hear headlines like "worrying increase in numbers testing positive". At best it is being disingenuous and at worst it is factually incorrect when the number of tests has more than doubled of late.

Now if the number of tests had stayed roughly the same and the rate of positives had say doubled, then it would be justified.

ACitizenErased · 14-07-2020 06:27PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Stephen where are you seeing the daily positives added vs the daily confirmed cases? Is that the tracker stats vs what’s announced on rte?
It’s a bit flippin confusing tbh.

I post positive tests daily, based on the number yesterday vs today. There was 15 positive tests in the last 24hrs.

wadacrack · 14-07-2020 06:29PM

https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

JP Liz V1 · 14-07-2020 06:31PM

AdamD wrote: »

The carrier didn't know they had it in the Killarney cluster, that wasn't reported correctly

What's the correct true story so waiting test result or tested positive before? Either way should be isolating not travelling to a party

tom1ie · 14-07-2020 06:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I post positive tests daily, based on the number yesterday vs today. There was 15 positive tests in the last 24hrs.

Ah I see. So you are comparing yesterday’s app numbers vs today’s app numbers which gave you an increase of 15?

So who updates the app and have they imputed the correct figures?
If so where are rte getting their figures?

Speak Now · 14-07-2020 06:34PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Ah I see. So you are comparing yesterday’s app numbers vs today’s app numbers which gave you an increase of 15?

So who updates the app and have they imputed the correct figures?
If so where are rte getting their figures?

RTE gets numbers from Department of health.

tom1ie · 14-07-2020 06:36PM

Speak Now wrote: »

RTE gets numbers from Department of health.

Ok so who updates the app?

MerlinSouthDub · 14-07-2020 06:38PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Ah I see. So you are comparing yesterday’s app numbers vs today’s app numbers which gave you an increase of 15?

So who updates the app and have they imputed the correct figures?
If so where are rte getting their figures?

The data available from the dashboard is the number of positive tests from yesterday. According to the dashboard, the data is coming from the HSE covid 19 system. There is no reason to think this number would be wrong.

The data reported in media is the number of new cases, as announced each day by the government. This is not the same as the number of positive tests, as the same person may test positive twice. It seems that there is a lag between when a positive test happens and when this gets reported as a new case. Presumably, more validation is required on new case statistics to remove duplicate cases and perhaps that causes the lag.

Speak Now · 14-07-2020 06:39PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Ok so who updates the app?

Sorry I dont know anything about the App.

tom1ie · 14-07-2020 06:49PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The data available from the dashboard is the number of positive tests from yesterday. According to the dashboard, the data is coming from the HSE covid 19 system. There is no reason to think this number would be wrong.

The data reported in media is the number of new cases, as announced each day by the government. This is not the same as the number of positive tests, as the same person may test positive twice. It seems that there is a lag between when a positive test happens and when this gets reported as a new case. Presumably, more validation is required on new case statistics to remove duplicate cases and perhaps that causes the lag.

Grand I get what your saying about the Hse covid 19 system.

However if the same person tests positive twice, is this recorded as two positive tests on the Hse covid 19 system or only once?
If that person test positive twice I presume the media only count that person as 1 as they deal in cases.

stephenjmcd · 14-07-2020 06:53PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Stephen where are you seeing the daily positives added vs the daily confirmed cases? Is that the tracker stats vs what’s announced on rte?
It’s a bit flippin confusing tbh.

Sorry only seeing this now

On https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/ if you scroll down past the daily stats theres a number of tests done and total postive tests number. They update daily. ACITIZENERASED and myself have been tracking the change there daily. Total postive tests was +15 added today for 24hrs.

Whats announced on rte and everywhere else is the top figure, its whatever the HPSC notify of, I'm assuming today they're notifying of a batch from the weekend cause the numbers haven't added up since Saturday for postives recorded on dashboard v cases announced

is_that_so · 14-07-2020 06:57PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

Apart from stating the bleeding obvious is that the body predicting a possible 120,000 deaths in the UK? If they really want to predict cases they can just look at what's happening on now. That's the worst case!

MerlinSouthDub · 14-07-2020 06:58PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Grand I get what your saying about the Hse covid 19 system.

However if the same person tests positive twice, is this recorded as two positive tests on the Hse covid 19 system or only once?
If that person test positive twice I presume the media only count that person as 1 as they deal in cases.

It is recorded as 2 positive tests, and 1 positive case.

The HSE is the source for both the test and case data, but the media only report on case data. The test data has only become available in the last few weeks.

Of course, the number of positive tests should always be higher that the number of positive cases.
But, this hasn't always been the case on a day by day basis and so we are assuming there must be some lag issues between the test data and the case data. It's not that either is wrong, just that they are not always consistent when we look at them each day.

Anyway, fingers crossed for a smaller number of positive tests and positive cases tomorrow!

stephenjmcd · 14-07-2020 06:58PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Grand I get what your saying about the Hse covid 19 system.

However if the same person tests positive twice, is this recorded as two positive tests on the Hse covid 19 system or only once?
If that person test positive twice I presume the media only count that person as 1 as they deal in cases.

Thats the big question really at what stage is the data validated and cases then denotified if they've been double counted through 2 postive swabs

Pentecost · 14-07-2020 07:00PM

Apologies if this was covered earlier in the thread but I'm seeing a quote from Varadkar saying that the rise in cases hasn't been big enough to prevent moving to Phase 4.

Seems an unusually definitive statement given they haven't made any announcement. I would tend to agree with him looking at the data but at the same time I wouldn't be too surprised if they push it back a couple of weeks.

tom1ie · 14-07-2020 07:01PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It is recorded as 2 positive tests, and 1 positive case.

The HSE is the source for both the test and case data, but the media only report on case data. The test data has only become available in the last few weeks.

Of course, the number of positive tests should always be higher that the number of positive cases.
But, this hasn't always been the case on a day by day basis and so we are assuming there must be some lag issues between the test data and the case data. It's not that either is wrong, just that they are not always consistent when we look at them each day.

Anyway, fingers crossed for a smaller number of positive tests and positive cases tomorrow!

Great thanks for the info!

tom1ie · 14-07-2020 07:02PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the big question really at what stage is the data validated and cases then denotified if they've been double counted through 2 postive swabs

Thanks for the info Stephen.

stephenjmcd · 14-07-2020 07:06PM

Pentecost wrote: »

Apologies if this was covered earlier in the thread but I'm seeing a quote from Varadkar saying that the rise in cases hasn't been big enough to prevent moving to Phase 4.

Seems an unusually definitive statement given they haven't made any announcement. I would tend to agree with him looking at the data but at the same time I wouldn't be too surprised if they push it back a couple of weeks.

He seemed fairly confident it would move ahead and Martin said he's more concerned about house parties than pubs

podgeandrodge · 14-07-2020 07:08PM

Boggles wrote: »

Looks like my chances of having a pint in my local next week are diminishing by the day.

Why do you say that?

accensi0n · 14-07-2020 07:08PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Unless we live in our rooms for the next 3 years there will be in the region of 30 cases a day.

3 weeks should do it no?

Azatadine · 14-07-2020 07:09PM

Setback to pub reopening plans as health chiefs warns against moving into phase four next week

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/setback-to-pub-reopening-plans-as-health-chiefs-warns-against-moving-into-phase-four-next-week-39368357.html

14-07-2020 07:10PM

accensi0n wrote: »

3 weeks should do it no?

What exactly are we going to achieve in 3 weeks?

is_that_so · 14-07-2020 07:12PM

Azatadine wrote: »

Setback to pub reopening plans as health chiefs warns against moving into phase four next week

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/setback-to-pub-reopening-plans-as-health-chiefs-warns-against-moving-into-phase-four-next-week-39368357.html

That's just their usual concerns over cases. The political will is definitely looking towards reopening but they could do with issuing guidelines for it regardless.

Van.Bosch · 14-07-2020 07:12PM

I genuinely believe that the figures now are lower than they would have expected 2-3 weeks after going into phase 3.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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