Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

fr336 wrote: »

I was complimenting you. I appreciate your high quality insights.

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m sure you were, but these days i share my high quality insights to real people instead of the internet armchair keyboard experts. The conversations are more meaningful and balanced i have noticed.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a public health emergency worldwide, and Italy is among the world's first and most severely affected countries. The first autochthonous Italian case of COVID-19 was documented on February 21. We investigated the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Italy earlier than that date, by analysing 40 composite influent wastewater samples collected - in the framework of other wastewater-based epidemiology projects - between October 2019 and February 2020 from five wastewater treatment plants (WTPs) in three cities and regions in northern Italy (Milan/Lombardy, Turin/Piedmont and Bologna/Emilia Romagna). Twenty-four additional samples collected in the same WTPs between September 2018 and June 2019 were included as blank samples. Viral concentration was performed according to the standard World Health Organization procedure for poliovirus sewage surveillance. Molecular analysis was undertaken with both nested RT-PCR and real-rime RT-PCR assays. A total of 15 positive samples were confirmed by both methods. Of these, 8 were collected before the first autochthonous Italian case. The earliest dates back to 18 December 2019 in Milan and Turin and 29 January 2020 in Bologna. Samples collected in January and February in the three cities were also positive. Our results demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in northern Italy at the end of 2019. Moreover, it was circulating in different geographic regions simultaneously, which changes our previous understanding of the geographical circulation of the virus in Italy. Our study highlights once again the importance of environmental surveillance as an early warning system, to monitor the levels of virus circulating in the population and identify outbreaks even before cases are notified to the healthcare system.

Exponential growth is very slow before it gets the chance to ramp up. People here might have heard this analogy before, but I'll quote it again:

"If it takes water lilies that double their spread every day 50 days to cover the entire lake, on what day would they cover a half of that lake?"

The answer, obviously, is day 49. More to the point, day 45 would have had only seen the lilies cover 3,125% of the lake. Day 40 would have had been 0,0976% - from that little of an amount, the lilies would proceed to take over the entire lake in 10 more days.

So, it's the same way with this pandemic. I think there now enough of an evidence from anywhere in the world to say that absent an (effective, early) intervention to lower R0 inside the country, it takes about 3,5 months for the virus to blow up into a devastating contagion. Here is the data set so far:

Italy: introduction in (mid?) December - explosive epidemic in late February-early March.

France: same as above - introduction in December or even November (if you trust the CT scan analysis) - explosive epidemic by March, that wasn't as dramatic-looking, but still had one of the world's largest tolls.

Russia: Patient Zero is now believed to arrive into Moscow in January, and Moscow started posting thousands of cases per day in late March.

Brazil: Genetic analysis I linked to earlier now points at introduction in February - three months later, there was the explosive growth in May.

Wuhan, China: In line with all the above, emergence in November would perfectly track with the explosive epidemic in January.

I also think that the corollary is that effective Test - Trace - Isolate measures (often aided by a lockdown) performed during those 3,5 months are in fact able to stop the pandemic in its tracks, or slow it to a crawl, as was most famously shown by South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, along with perhaps a few others (Malaysia?)

I believe this a thorough enough look at the available data, but I would be interested to see if anyone has counter-examples.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nevada reporting 1099 new cases, by far its highest one day increase

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Thats a big increase from the usual 3 or 4 hundred a day. I had to check it myself as it isn't on any of the local news sites at all weirdly, and usually they are on top of reporting the daily cases. 4180 tests performed yesterday and 1099 new cases. Thats shocking. I wonder were some backlogged cases added because it really seems out of nowhere! I guess we'll find out more when it's finally picked up by the media.

Clarification from SNHD: Today, the Southern Nevada Health District reported 971 new cases of COVID-19. After a review of the case data, it was determined the increase in reports was due to a delay in laboratory reporting. More than 240 of the cases reported were from laboratory reports dated June 23, and more than 380 were from reports dated June 24.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Ah okay that's good so. I was kinda skeptical because Nevada is basically entirely desert!

Danno wrote: »

This virus has been waltzing though the population long before March.

Look up Military Games in Wuhan last Hallowe'en.

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I see that stores like Powercity, Harvey Norman, Currys/DID had stopped installation of built in appliances during covid - was that related to restrictions and would it change from Phase 3 Monday does anyone know?

Actually, I see Harvey Norman are saying they now do it, but Powercity/DID/Currys still saying they won't.

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What's the short version of that?

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1094347/world-military-games-illness-covid-19