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Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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Comments

  • #8672
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,865 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Cheers. This is for Ireland?

    Where do you feel the IFR is at worldwide based on non Chinese/UK/USA data? https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-19-lethality/
    The CFR atm is about 4.9%, so realistically it's probably not far off the samples. However that does indicate about 100 million cases.


  • #8673
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,843 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Yes that's definitely being downplayed by the media I feel


    This is absolutely something you want to avoid getting. At least till the treatments vastly improve (I'm not overly hopeful for a vaccine)

    But it's looking more and more that your chances of dying from it are about 1 in 200. Obviously these odds change drastically if you're over 70 years old, and even more so if you're 80+

    So if you are younger the odds change drastically also


  • #8674
    Seamai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    Speak Now wrote: »
    Not a hope we get 60% infected rates.

    Not without sacrificing tens if not hundreds of thousands in the process. Officially just over half a percent of the population have been infected, even if the actual rate is several times higher it still would be a hell of a jump to 60% and not an exercise worth risking.


  • #8675
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,959 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Coronavirus: Holiday bookings 'explode' as travel restrictions ease

    Sure maybe they might start seeing sense around wave 4, I doubt it though.


  • #8676
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,871 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Ok.
    So we rely on a vaccine to get us to that level of infection.
    Unfortunately a virus is at the very best a good bit away. (I think the oxford one is the closest from what I’ve been told here.)
    The virus won’t just disappear unfortunately.

    Agree with you about a vaccine but I just dont see us getting to 60%. That's 1000 cases per day for 8 years!


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  • #8677
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Yes that's definitely being downplayed by the media I feel


    This is absolutely something you want to avoid getting. At least till the treatments vastly improve (I'm not overly hopeful for a vaccine)

    But it's looking more and more that your chances of dying from it are about 1 in 200. Obviously these odds change drastically if you're over 70 years old, and even more so if you're 80+

    Im not personally optimistic of them finding a treatment for people who are suffering from long term side effects(months). It seems a very complex virus that will would take years of study/trials to make progress on. The death rate does seem quite low so thats encouraging to some extent


  • #8678
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Yes that's definitely being downplayed by the media I feel


    This is absolutely something you want to avoid getting. At least till the treatments vastly improve (I'm not overly hopeful for a vaccine)

    But it's looking more and more that your chances of dying from it are about 1 in 200. Obviously these odds change drastically if you're over 70 years old, and even more so if you're 80+

    Has anyone modelled IFR, or even CFR, based on data we have regarding % of our population with certain underlying conditions and age groups? Or even in any other country? We’re seeing numbers out of various places with varying populations. Initially it was said that Italy had a very old population, etc., hence the death rate, but it’s taken off in so many places since. Imagine if it hits a group of 80 year old obese people with heart disease, vs a group of the same number who are in their 20s and fit. Maybe it’s something that will be worked out after the fact.


  • #8679
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CFR atm is about 4.9%, so realistically it's probably not far off the samples. However that does indicate about 100 million cases.


    From looking at this short and informative video, I'm thinking IFR gives a better indication of how many people survive it



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMtzWVTPmLI


  • #8680
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    More good news from our friends upstairs

    https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1276973640937025537?s=21


  • #8681
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Probably from the forest fires near Chernobyl in the Ukraine

    did a little more checking onl8ne as I wasnt fully awake reading it first time. Not from firest fires seem from other stuff detected aswell has to be a reactor or rods or flip forgotten the name projectile. Some thing that can get the chemicals high up into air.
    I read these awhile ago and thats why I am a tiny bit on alert.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/concern-as-coronavirus-threatens-russias-closed-nuclear-cities

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/04/hanford-nuclear-waste-site-coronavirus-washington

    https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/hggei5/radioactivity_is_blowing_in_the_air_a_cloud_with/

    Again folks seems very low levels.


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  • #8682
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,959 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    wadacrack wrote: »
    The death rate does seem quite low so thats encouraging to some extent

    The "death rate" is only one part of the equation. The best viruses in terms of being a virus has a mortality rate of being between 1-2.5%.

    The second part of the equation is how contagious it is.

    That combined with the death rate is why this is a very serious global pandemic.

    Ebola has an 60%+ death rate, it's terrible at being a virus.

    It will become very good at being a virus if it becomes more infectious and far less deadly, obviously that is bad news for humans.


  • #8683
    Gruffalux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I'm gonna try do it 2 ways.
    1) Conservative - we miss 1 asymptomatic case for every 1 confirmed case. This is how our modelling is done. With that perspective our IFR is about 3%.


    2) Being logical, based on realism - we probably missed up to 10 asymptomatic cases for every 1 confirmed case - that's about 250,000 cases. In that case, we've an IFR of 0.8%. Even that seems high!

    Heres some figures I play with. 10% cases recorded say = 25000, that means 10 times more have had it = 250000. That is also with 5% of country having got it. 1730 deaths out of 250,000 is 0.7% fatality rate. If 3% of country have had it that is 150,000 and 1730 deaths is fatality rate of 1.15%. That is also a possibility and antibody surveys may show more info. Now 0.7- 1% fatality rate is quite high as you agree and ii is a highly infectious disease. But even if it is acceptable to people it is still a new source of fatality that did not exist here prior to say 5 months ago. So simply on that basis it is a hard thing to really deep down accept for people generally, that there has emerged recently this new real and reasonably significant cause of death and morbidity that we cannot magic away. 13500 people would have died normally in the past 5 months and 1730 have died of covid. Whether or not that is in addition ie excess death rate or not we will tell in future but it is for now 13% (possibly extra) of the normal expected deaths.


  • #8684
    Akrasia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,704 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Boggles wrote: »
    The "death rate" is only one part of the equation. The best viruses in terms of being a virus has a mortality rate of being between 1-2.5%.

    The second part of the equation is how contagious it is.

    That combined with the death rate is why this is a very serious global pandemic.

    Ebola has an 60%+ death rate, it's terrible at being a virus.

    It will become very good at being a virus if it becomes more infectious and far less deadly, obviously that is bad news for humans.

    The ultimate in terrifying viruses is Smallpox, about as contagious as covid but with a 30% fatality rate, and horrific scarring and long term complications for up to 80% of survivors

    Smallpox on it's own, is enough evidence for any anti vaccination campaigner to sincerely go fuk themselves

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



  • #8685
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,553 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    HSE Operations report out.

    As of 18:30 there were 11 confirmed covid paitents in ICU, down 1 from yesterday.

    As of 8pm 19 confirmed covid paitents in general beds, same as yesterday. The Mater the most with 4


  • #8686
    Hmmzis
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Yes that's definitely being downplayed by the media I feel


    This is absolutely something you want to avoid getting. At least till the treatments vastly improve (I'm not overly hopeful for a vaccine)

    But it's looking more and more that your chances of dying from it are about 1 in 200. Obviously these odds change drastically if you're over 70 years old, and even more so if you're 80+

    Just wondering, why do you think there might not be a vaccine? So far the human trials haven't turned up anything of concern and the animal challenge trials have showed ok-ish to good results (depending on the candidate).


  • #8687
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Finally this thread gets back to informing, educating, debating. It's great to read so thank you the posters involved. One problem with the non stop positivity crowd and willing the virus away is that it's a virus - it doesn't care about positive or negative, good or bad. It is what it is and has been such March. Some people don't want it to be a bad situation so they'll live in lala land and say everything is basically fine while ranting at others. I'm feeling ten times more confident than I was in March though - at least now the governments are taking prevention seriously rather than business as usual and we learn more about Covid every day. I for one am still grateful to be here and not lose out in the lottery of death statistics.


  • #8688
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Hmmzis wrote: »
    Just wondering, why do you think there might not be a vaccine? So far the human trials haven't turned up anything of concern and the animal challenge trials have showed ok-ish to good results (depending on the candidate).


    I hope I'm 100% wrong but I feel it's the biggest carrot on a stick the world will ever see

    A year from now we'll still be getting "Vaccine still 6 months away" headlines. Just a gut feeling

    I'm far more interested in progress made on treatments for this


  • #8689
    pc7
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Genuine question, would you be among the first to take the vaccine if offered? I know I wouldn’t and I’m a huge supporter of vaccines, paid for my kids to get men b before it was on the schedule here, I get flu jab yearly. But if a vaccine gets released this year I’ll hold a while before getting it, too risky (unless built from say bcg or a well used/known vaccine)


  • #8690
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,341 ✭✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    just checked Worldometers, theres now over 500,000 deaths attributed to Covid19, and over 10 million cases, worldwide

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


  • #8691
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    pc7 wrote: »
    Genuine question, would you be among the first to take the vaccine if offered? I know I wouldn’t and I’m a huge supporter of vaccines, paid for my kids to get men b before it was on the schedule here, I get flu jab yearly. But if a vaccine gets released this year I’ll hold a while before getting it, too risky (unless built from say bcg or a well used/known vaccine)

    It's a tricky one, I'd be like you and extremely hesitant. Unless like you say it was like your average jab. Either way you're making a choice - to take a (small) risk with a vaccine or take a (small) risk with catching Covid, ending up in ICU or death. Tough one!


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  • #8692
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    just checked Worldometers, theres now over 500,000 deaths attributed to Covid19, and over 10 million cases, worldwide

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    All this from 1 person.


  • #8693
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,811 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Florida reports record 9,585 new cases today. Arizona also reports record surge.

    Screen%20Shot%202020-06-27%20at%203.53.17%20PM.png?itok=iZS7D53r


    Never mind COVID though - I hope Florida is going to be ok with it's "Pneumonia" epidemic which has killed 5 times more people so far this year than the average.


  • #8694
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,675 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Florida reports record 9,585 new cases today. Arizona also reports record surge.

    Screen%20Shot%202020-06-27%20at%203.53.17%20PM.png?itok=iZS7D53r


    Never mind COVID though - I hope Florida is going to be ok with it's "Pneumonia" epidemic which has killed 5 times more people so far this year than the average.

    Cases in a number of Republican states are exploding.


  • #8695
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,645 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    All this from 1 person.

    Yep we’re all doomed! You have what 7 billion ish people in the world? It’s very likely at least one of those people are going to have the virus so the whole world is going to get re infected again with 2nd 3rd 4th......... 100th waves etc

    My advice to you is have all your affairs in order and have a will made.


  • #8696
    Steve F
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Yep we’re all doomed! You have what 7 billion ish people in the world? It’s very likely at least one of those people are going to have the virus so the whole world is going to get re infected again with 2nd 3rd 4th......... 100th waves etc

    My advice to you is have all your affairs in order and a will made.

    What?


  • #8697
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Yep we’re all doomed! You have what 7 billion ish people in the world? It’s very likely at least one of those people are going to have the virus so the whole world is going to get re infected again with 2nd 3rd 4th......... 100th waves etc

    My advice to you is have all your affairs in order and a will made.

    Great post, really informative.


  • #8698
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,811 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    United States distribution. No region is now seeing cases decline.

    EbeJOwOWsAAlXui?format=jpg&name=medium

    Fauci warned today that confirmed deaths will be increasing next week in line with the surge over the last couple of weeks and the lag between confirmed cases, hospitalisation and fatalities.

    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1276949308412223489

    That's a good idea Mike


  • #8699
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,645 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    fr336 wrote: »
    Great post, really informative.

    But sure you’re the expert along with other posters on here so you don’t need my input, so carry on buddy.


  • #8700
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    The USA feels like watching Italy x 10. I really hope it doesn't get any worse.


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  • #8701
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    But sure you’re the expert along with other posters on here so you don’t need my input, so carry on buddy.

    I was complimenting you. I appreciate your high quality insights.


This discussion has been closed.
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