Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Eod100 · 25-06-2020 01:27PM

Bit surprised by how high some of these figures are tbh. https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0625/1149575-82-uncomfortable-about-going-to-big-outdoor-event-cso/

caveat emptor · 25-06-2020 01:36PM

I mean look at this guy. WTF does he know. They are taking our liberty. My grandad was in the GPO. He was just posting a letter but he could have been fighting. Now we didn't fight for nothing. We have a right to avail of low cost flights to European destinations and to see people smiling. Even if it means some of us get caught in the crossfire. Anyway I digress.

This European /globalist overlord should really stop reporting facts. Nobody on here has any problem with statistics.
Some of my best friends are statistics!

Talking out his arse if you ask me.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1276132288087146497?s=20

schmoo2k · 25-06-2020 01:39PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Bit surprised by how high some of these figures are tbh. https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0625/1149575-82-uncomfortable-about-going-to-big-outdoor-event-cso/

I thought they were about right (for the question asked).

wadacrack · 25-06-2020 01:40PM

This is a great listen.

https://twitter.com/mtosterholm/status/1276134247196221445

podgeandrodge · 25-06-2020 01:44PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can’t wait for this thread meetup in some pub when this is over, be like a UFC event

Some will be on their second pints while the others are still disinfecting the first one as a precaution :pac:

froog · 25-06-2020 01:49PM

i mean it's not rocket science, if you end a lockdown and the virus is still circulating even at very low levels, the whole thing starts again. until we have a vaccine next year it's going to be ****ty.

Boggles · 25-06-2020 01:59PM

froog wrote: »

i mean it's not rocket science, if you end a lockdown and the virus is still circulating even at very low levels, the whole thing starts again. until we have a vaccine next year it's going to be ****ty.

Rarely if ever is the first vaccine the one that goes on to be the most widely used.

If we get lucky it will be Summer/Autumn 2022 before we know we are in the clear.

Vaccine Early 2021
All 2021 and 2022 to scale it up and administer it.
End of 2021 and first 6-9 months of 2022 to test it's effectiveness.

That is best case scenario, it has never been tried or successful done at anything even remotely resembling that pace.

Onesea · 25-06-2020 02:00PM

Boggles wrote: »

Because this isn't a flu, we have occasional vaccines and effective treatments against the flu also the flu is seasonal. Also the flu is inevitable. You can set your clock by it. When was the last time you have heard Florida reporting 10,000+ cases of the flu in a 3 day period in June?

It's a novel virus with no vaccine which isn't seasonal.

So it will swirl around the planet until 1 of 3 things happens.

1. It fúck off on it's own somehow.
2. It runs out of hosts who keep their immunity.
3. A scale-able effective vaccine or vaccines, which may have to administered annually.

The above is based on actual evidenced based science, so I know some people may take issue with that.

So how many people below the retired age died from this in Ireland...... Very very few.

Half of yous are bonkers in here. Simple numbers and logic escape yous. This isn't nearly as dangerous as made out. And your lockdown hasn't done didly in influencing this virus.

Boggles · 25-06-2020 02:01PM

Onesea wrote: »

So how many people below the retired age died from this in Ireland...... Very very few.

Half of yous are bonkers in here. Simple numbers and logic escape yous. This isn't nearly as dangerous as made out. And your lockdown hasn't done didly in influencing this virus.

You know what, I think you are right.

I'll just ring Tony, bare with me.

Arghus · 25-06-2020 02:06PM

Onesea wrote: »

So how many people below the retired age died from this in Ireland...... Very very few.

Half of yous are bonkers in here. Simple numbers and logic escape yous. This isn't nearly as dangerous as made out. And your lockdown hasn't done didly in influencing this virus.

What do you think was responsible for containing the spread of the virus. I'm curious.

Onesea · 25-06-2020 02:14PM

Arghus wrote: »

What do you think was responsible for containing the spread of the virus. I'm curious.

How many died below retirement age in Ireland.

ACitizenErased · 25-06-2020 02:16PM

Another Phase III trial of the Oxford vaccine ChAdOx-1 nCov-19 has begun in South Africa.

More information on the South Africa trial program is available from the university conducting the trial: http://www.wits.ac.za/covid19vaccine/fact-sheet/

Highlights:

• ⁠Testing a small group (n=50) of HIV-positive subjects along with the larger group of HIV-negative subjects (n=1,950) to examine any differences in response for HIV-positive patients.
• ⁠Unlike the UK trial, this university reports they are using a saline placebo instead of a pre-existing Meningitis vaccine as the control group.

The second point is interesting because the UK trial had to re-group the Phase 2/3 trial participants after noticing a low rate of side effects in the early participants. This caused them to double-check the dosing and discover that the lab making the Phase 2/3 doses had not achieved the potency they had used in the Phase 1 trials. They had to increase the dose for the remaining volunteers put them into a new trial group.

That implies that they expect a noticeable rate of side effects with the ChAdOx-1 vaccine.

Do keep in mind "side effects" in this context is almost completely minor flu-like symptoms, swelling/redness around the injection site, etc.

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-23-trial-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-south-africa-begins

circadian · 25-06-2020 02:18PM

Onesea wrote: »

How many died below retirement age in Ireland.

A magnificent strawman is being built here, just in time for July 12th no less.

Away With The Fairies · 25-06-2020 02:20PM

Onesea wrote: »

So how many people below the retired age died from this in Ireland...... Very very few.

Half of yous are bonkers in here. Simple numbers and logic escape yous. This isn't nearly as dangerous as made out. And your lockdown hasn't done didly in influencing this virus.

People that died aren't numbers.

Hector Savage · 25-06-2020 02:22PM

Christ it's on the rise again in Europe .... that was the one positive about this, that it was at least under control in Europe...

owlbethere · 25-06-2020 02:29PM

froog wrote: »

i mean it's not rocket science, if you end a lockdown and the virus is still circulating even at very low levels, the whole thing starts again. until we have a vaccine next year it's going to be ****ty.

I was thinking about this earlier and I think we will probably see a second wave or spikes in cases by the end of the summer or September or October. What will bring us into a second wave is a few things:

1)people feeling entitled to holidays abroad and that has shown itself to be a risk factor for picking up the virus. Whatever about socially distancing at the local coffee shop or restaurant where hopefully contact tracing can occur, one really has no idea who or where others came from in a holiday resort out abroad, never mind about the traffic in airports.

2) the government mentioned the possibility of large gatherings of 5000 people may be allowed to meet by September. Something like that. So there will be large gatherings.

3) an increase in members from households meeting with going back to schools and colleges.

4) complacency with diminishing hygiene. I've seen so much already.

5) there has been so much lost productivity in 2020. We have been told we can't go to work or school with a cold but that properly won't be adhered to. People will feel pressured into going to work and sending children to school. It can be somewhat managed and policed within work and school environments with temperature checks but in casual or social settings, I can't see it happening. If people have a wedding to go to in the autumn, they will go, cold or not. The same will apply for small gigs and perhaps flights tickets. People will go, cold or not.

hmmm · 25-06-2020 02:31PM

Boggles wrote: »

Vaccine Early 2021
All 2021 and 2022 to scale it up and administer it.
End of 2021 and first 6-9 months of 2022 to test it's effectiveness.

That is best case scenario, it has never been tried or successful done at anything even remotely resembling that pace.

If you've been monitoring the vaccine thread - manufacturing is underway now, and at scale, for the leading vaccine contenders. If the vaccine is successful and is approved, there will be immediate supply. There are a number of Phase 3 trials starting and started in the coming weeks.

Best case currently is probably a few tens to even a few hundred of millions of doses by the end of the year, with widescale availability early next year. Best case, and we'll know if this is likely by perhaps end of August.

That doesn't mean we won't have to get two injections, or one "good" vaccine next year and a better one a year or two later.

ixoy · 25-06-2020 02:31PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Christ it's on the rise again in Europe .... that was the one positive about this, that it was at least under control in Europe...

There's spikes so yes, it's on the rise in Europe in parts and in relatively small numbers. Bear the numbers in mind.

stephenjmcd · 25-06-2020 02:32PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1276161122165497862?s=19

stephenjmcd · 25-06-2020 02:34PM

NPHET approves move to phase 3.

"They will also discuss entering into ‘air bridge’ arrangements with other EU countries but it is understood the final decision on choosing countries to pair with will be left to the new government.

However, while travel restrictions will be eased for some countries by early July, it is expected even stricter rules will be enforced on visitors for unapproved countries.

This could include temperature checks on arrival and mandatory quarantine.

However, new regulations will have to be drafted to allow for stronger enforcement measures.

This will also be a left to the next government should it be formed over the weekend."

Looks like most of it will be up to the new government to start on. You'd expect any of the tougher measures apply to anyone from outside the EU as intra EU travel starts up with the bloc not allowing in third countries.

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/nphet-officially-clears-the-way-for-reopening-of-pubs-restaurants-and-hairdressers-from-monday-39315813.html?__twitter_impression=true

Arghus · 25-06-2020 02:34PM

Onesea wrote: »

How many died below retirement age in Ireland.

8% of total fatalities.

Just curious to know how you know lockdown was ineffective.

Jim_Hodge · 25-06-2020 02:34PM

Onesea wrote: »

So how many people below the retired age died from this in Ireland...... Very very few.

Half of yous are bonkers in here. Simple numbers and logic escape yous. This isn't nearly as dangerous as made out. And your lockdown hasn't done didly in influencing this virus.

What has the age of lost loved ones got to do with anything? I'm over retirement age, does my life not matter as much as yours?

As for the effect of our restrictions (never had a lockdown), you obviously know diddly about their merits nor their impact on the virus.

ixoy · 25-06-2020 02:40PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

However, while travel restrictions will be eased for some countries by early July, it is expected even stricter rules will be enforced on visitors for unapproved countries.

That's a welcome idea, especially for the likes of the US. If it's done at an EU-level then it'll be important too otherwise, for example, we could get flights from the Americas coming via Heathrow (assuming the UK is part of this, which based on its current numbers it should not).

stephenjmcd · 25-06-2020 02:41PM

One third of follow-up calls made to passengers who arrived in the State and were required to self-isolate were not answered, according to figures obtained by RTÉ News from the Department of Justice.

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1149599/

stephenjmcd · 25-06-2020 02:43PM

ixoy wrote: »

That's a welcome idea, especially for the likes of the US. If it's done at an EU-level then it'll be important too otherwise, for example, we could get flights from the Americas coming via Heathrow (assuming the UK is part of this, which based on its current numbers it should not).

EU level at the moment is 3rd countries so anywhere outside the EU bloc. I'd agree with measures for anyone coming from outside of the EU.

FishOnABike · 25-06-2020 02:45PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There wouldn't be any more argumentative points.

Those against the seasonal prognosis keep pointing to Australia despite the fact South America and South Africa are currently suffering a nightmare.

If Australia goes it confirms that with the change in season will come a new surge in the northern hemisphere.

Hard to see where the debate is.

It takes more than half a year to see if something is seasonal. I wouldn't say with any confidence that something is seasonal until a consistent pattern has been observed over at least two (and preferably many more) full cycles of the seasons.

ACitizenErased · 25-06-2020 02:45PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

NPHET approves move to phase 3.

"They will also discuss entering into ‘air bridge’ arrangements with other EU countries but it is understood the final decision on choosing countries to pair with will be left to the new government.

However, while travel restrictions will be eased for some countries by early July, it is expected even stricter rules will be enforced on visitors for unapproved countries.

This could include temperature checks on arrival and mandatory quarantine.

However, new regulations will have to be drafted to allow for stronger enforcement measures.

This will also be a left to the next government should it be formed over the weekend."

Looks like most of it will be up to the new government to start on. You'd expect any of the tougher measures apply to anyone from outside the EU as intra EU travel starts up with the bloc not allowing in third countries.

https://amp.independent.ie/irish-news/nphet-officially-clears-the-way-for-reopening-of-pubs-restaurants-and-hairdressers-from-monday-39315813.html?__twitter_impression=true

That’s great news about the mandatory quarantine for worse affected countries. Has to be done.

Drumpot · 25-06-2020 02:46PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Christ it's on the rise again in Europe .... that was the one positive about this, that it was at least under control in Europe...

I dont find it surprising at all , I think its going to be a case of trying to fit COVID into our lives until a vaccine of some sort is found. The good news is that anybody getting a bad dose now, has a much better chance of surviving due to methods to manage it, once of course our health system is not overrun. Also, hopefully people being more vigilant/careful will help slow the spread when we re-open our borders fully.

If we want to look at it from a positive perspective, being behind the curve in terms of opening up allows us to see whats working and not working in Europe. The slowish openings we are having now will hopefully help us gather more specific information that will help us isolate the things that speed up and slow down transmission.

I really hope that we are learning from others mistakes. I think culture is going to play a role and changing habits will be important. Not just that, dont have a stupid massive orgy of celebrations like some countries appear to be having, when most restrictions are lifted.

The most worrying thing for me was when I was reading about Germany, a population who appeared to be ahead of the curve in dealing with it. Supposedly there wasn't great compliance at even basic preventative measures in some parts, there really does appear to be an issue with Western Cultures actually following consistent advice. The lesson we can learn as a population is to adapt now to make it easier on ourselves. The alternative is to kick the proverbial COVID can down the road and deal with the fallout if it does take hold again.

NegativeCreep · 25-06-2020 02:47PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Bit surprised by how high some of these figures are tbh. https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0625/1149575-82-uncomfortable-about-going-to-big-outdoor-event-cso/

They must have asked any pensioner they could find.

Anyone I’ve spoken to in the real world doesn’t give a sh!t about it anymore and just want everything to open again and deal with it.

Drumpot · 25-06-2020 02:49PM

FishOnABike wrote: »

It takes more than half a year to see if something is seasonal. I wouldn't say with any confidence that something is seasonal until a consistent pattern has been observed over at least two (and preferably many more) full cycles of the seasons.

I was under the impression its not seasonal because its thriving in all conditions around the world ?

Also, I would wonder if we have a flu season, is it not reasonable to assume that COVID could piggyback on this virus and spread more as a result ? That is, if more people are sneezing and have a low immune system to flu etc, they are more likely to contract and spread COVID? Maybe thats a bit simplistic?!

Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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