Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I remember the other night the hysteria of the German R at 2.88, as many people tried to explain at the time with a low base of cases and a very rapid increase in cases due to the various meat plants etc the R value grew exponentially.

I've not seen anyone post the R value for Germany that was released last night. I'm not doing this for the "happy clappy" postive news its for some balance in the discussion whereby the increase was explainable.

Last night in Germany the rolling 4 day average of R was estimated at 0.72 with interval of 0.56 - 0.91.

The 7 day R in Germany is estimated at 1.17 with interval of 1.08-1.25.

I dont see people jumping on this information that was released last night compared to when 2.88 was released. Balance

I have come to the conclusion that the R number as a method of measuring anything is a complete load of bollix.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I remember the other night the hysteria of the German R at 2.88, as many people tried to explain at the time with a low base of cases and a very rapid increase in cases due to the various meat plants etc the R value grew exponentially.

There was no hysteria on this thread about the German R number.

Boggles wrote: »

I have come to the conclusion that the R number as a method of measuring anything is a complete load of bollix.

Its extremely sensitive as prof nolan has said many times recently.

With low levels of cases any sudden increase will send it back up. Sure if we reported 1 case a day for the next week and still had the same level of testing you could report R as being 1.

I agree now with the low level of cases you can't draw much conclusions from it.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Christ, really is that what your coming back with?? A sarcastic response without actually looking at the reasons why some countries reported more cases recently and the overall trend.

Some countries picked up clusters in meat plants, in mines amongst other places. Highly populated and close proximity workplaces.

Its very easy to say there's a resurgence when they picked up more cases in those settings this week than last week.

Do you actual want to argue that the overall European trend isn't very steady?? Look at the graph showing lab confirmed cases.

Look, the point is things may look steady if you ignore the meat packing spikes etc etc, at the moment, but we are opening Europe back up, inevitably you will have more people congregating together, and virus hotspots, such as the UK, will spread to other EU countries.
That's before we even get into EU countries re patriating their own citizens (who potentially could have the virus) from global hot spots such within Africa, asia, north and south America.
With more people out and about and with the virus not eradicated/ or immunised against, its only a matter of time before its brought back in to Ireland.
I cant see how people are arguing against that logic?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Eh? Cases per 100,000 is independent of population

If Iceland adds 5 cases it adds 1.37 to their cases per 100,000.

If we add 5 cases it adds 0.1 to our cases per 100,000.

So no, cases per 100,000 is not independent of population

hmmm wrote: »

He said we were likely to see a resurgence of cases as we relax restrictions, and as holidaymakers returned to the country.

This is all common sense. The question for the coming months is not whether cases will increase - we know they will - but whether we can put out these fires before they spread.

And which he described a second wave as inevitable. Its in the headline of the Irish times with the article behind a paywall.

A second wave is possible but not inevitable though.

Theres a difference between saying a wave is inevitable compared to saying a resurgence of cases. Its highly possible we could see a higher level of cases which hopefully the improvement in testing and tracing can contain. But having a higher level of cases isn't necessarily a wave if its at relatively low manageable numbers

tom1ie wrote: »

Look, the point is things may look steady if you ignore the meat packing spikes etc etc, at the moment, but we are opening Europe back up, inevitably you will have more people congregating together, and virus hotspots, such as the UK, will spread to other EU countries.
That's before we even get into EU countries re patriating their own citizens (who potentially could have the virus) from global hot spots such within Africa, asia, north and south America.
With more people out and about and with the virus not eradicated/ or immunised against, its only a matter of time before its brought back in to Ireland.
I cant see how people are arguing against that logic?

there's no ignoring meat plants etc they're included in the lab confirmed graph which is on the link I provided.

I can't see countries welcoming the UK for example back with open arms, same goes for Sweden. Why would you want to, they've just been a mess.

There also shouldn't be any travel outside the EU bloc.

Difference between now and March we had no testing and no tracing to start with at the required levels.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think you are being a bit unfair. People here often react to whats in the media which is understandable. Its the media who hype the German R numbers. All in all you would hope people on all sides of the debate would apply a bit more critical thinking before reposting information without understanding the source or context. Doesn't happen very often though

I agree re the media, the 2.88 was latched onto by every outlet around with no critical thinking applied and simply reposted here multiple times. If I'd have just read it out right with no knowledge straight away I'd think thats really bad. But a bit of your own research goes a long way.

I'd pay less attention to R now anyway, its not going to be an accurate measure as prof nolan has mentioned.

The European healthcare regulator said on Thursday it had recommended conditionally approving Gilead Sciences Inc’s antiviral treatment, remdesivir, for use in COVID-19 patients across the continent

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gilead-europe/eu-drug-regulator-endorses-gileads-remdesivir-as-covid-19-treatment-idUSKBN23W1ZH?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can’t wait for this thread meetup in some pub when this is over, be like a UFC event

Ha! that made me laugh! Kermit vs citizen the main event!

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Half of the people on here wouldn’t last 5 minutes in the developing world.

And you would? I have yet to see you starting a thread on Yemen, let me know if you do. It's natural that Covid is a big discussion - these things don't happen in this part of the world. There may be isolated flooding or a terrorist attack in a country, but this affects the entire country - young, old, rich, poor. Getting on a bit? It could get you. A bit overweight? It could get you. Young and without any underlying conditions? Tiny chance it could get you. Luckily our governments are responsible enough to not have rolled the dice on Covid taking out chunks of the population when they still don't know enough about it and how things like population numbers, density of population, age and health profiles of a country etc affect its impact. To be honest if what's going on in Yemen is just as bad as Covid I don't know why anyone would be posting in this thread reguarly, but I don't tell people where they can post so won't say any more :pac: