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Thursday/Friday: Lightning Storms, Flash Flooding Event Thread
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24-06-2020 10:06PM#1
Could be a memorable event tomorrow evening and overnight for many and deserves it's own thread.
It should all kick off around early afternoon with elevated storms developing in the southeast, from then on the atmosphere gets ever more unstable and storms breaking out widely through the evening with increasing intensity leading to spectacular scenes for some.
Most places can expect to see lightning either over head or in the distance but perhaps midlands and northwest might go a little beyond the storms elsewhere in terms of intensity.
We'll be keeping an eye on potential multi-cellular storm development too which is possible and could enhance conditions just about anywhere in the at risk zones.
National warning is currently yellow
Thursday evening until Friday sunrise are peak conditions
Areas most at risk:
East Connaught, Leinster, Ulster and East Munster
Warning of disruption:
Lightning, flash flooding
Irritant warning:
"I can't sleep"
Hot tomorrow in places with temperatures up to 28c, highest in the eastern half of the country.
Keep an eye on the storm thread for more technical discussion
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058058601&page=114
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This this evening's radiosonde from Brest, NW France, the source of tomorrow evening's airmass up along the east coast. Strongly capped, with no SBCAPE and only slight MUCAPE from around 850-900 hPa. Uplift from the upper trough will be needed to cool upper lapse rates and overcome the cap tomorrow.
Surface dewpoints in the region are currently in the range 16-18 °C. I would say this will be the max we will acheive tomorrow too.
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that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.
Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.0 -
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that chart is just insane, it's just not possible. If that came off we would probably be looking at possible 1985 territory which is a once in a lifetime event.
Being realistic we will end up with something similar to last week's event, maybe a few places getting something similar to the Wexford/Waterford storm recently.
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Just comparing those crazy WRF-005 charts with actual observations.
There was a radiosonde launch fromo Cardington, near Stansted, at 21Z this evening (first plot). Second plot is the 18Z WRF forecast sounding for the same time.
The WRF completely gets low-level moisture wrong, with dewpoint at least 5 degrees too high, and this is just a 4-hour forecast. It also gets the boundary layer temperature arseways, showing way too much cooling. Otherwise it gets upper levels fairly well, apart from missing out several moist layers at mid-levels.
It would appear that this model, which is fed by the GFS, doesn't have a grip on the boundary layer conditions and is the reason why it's showing ridiculously high CAPE and LI values for tomorrow (and even this evening in much of central and NW England (shown below), where skies are clear. Use this model at your peril.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwkwRQGbxyo
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