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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020
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Meteorite58 wrote: »ECM showing even higher nearer the E later Thursday evening, gong to be sweaty !!
Someone should tell the makers of those maps though that Ballykissangel is a fictional village from a BBC series and that it's real name should be on that map ie Avoca Co Wicklow !0 -
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At the moment looks like getting up to 25 or 26C on Thursday and up around 30C in the UK. High DP's. A lot of energy there but how much will move in over Ireland or will it move up along the coasts or more over towards the UK. Wind direction keeping bulk of the action over the sea atm it would seem but still a reasonable chance of storms more so up along the SE, E and NE I reckon. Huge areas of convergence up along the Irish sea and overland also, could even see a few home grown cells pop up inland on Thurs, loads of moisture to be evaporated after all the rain and with all that heat. LLS and DLS good.
Knife edge stuff.
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I do believe we have a west shift this evening on the pub run.
This is the GFS and actually has precip breaking out early on Thursday.
I’m still remaining on the fence but looking at the charts today the potential is there for quite the show up the SE and E Thursday night into Friday. But as I said I’m
not getting too excited yet but if these charts are still showing the same come Thursday morning I’ll be getting a few Cold bottles ready.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Latest ARPEGE 18Z rolling out and full of intrigue.
Showing widespread mid 20's on Thurs, Dp high teens and even seeing 20C.
850hpa temps from 10C in the W to 14C in the E
High Cape values in places getting up over 1000 j/kjg and and heavy rain / thunderstorm potential now cover a lot more area inland.
thanks very much to you and the others providing updates! Makes it worth staying up for one more look
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During the afternoon the surface-based CAPE will not be spectacular but should allow some isolated storms to form inland, especially north midlands and Ulster, where shear will be greater. Later in the evening convection will switch to elevated as we get some lift from the upper trough to the west, so a window of 6 hours or so for MUCAPE to try to do its business. Best MUCAPE occurs before midnight but out in the Irish Sea, generated by uplift from the Welsh mountains. In that area the forecast sounding shows the parcel level at around 920 hPa, with a very stable boundary layer below it. Over land, MUCAPE is much lower, so we'll be trying to squeeze every little bit out of it and the upper trough.
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