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Property Market 2020

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    #9122
    Neamhshuntasach
    Registered Users Posts: 2,168 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    I've read this thread here and there over the last few months as we had been previously sale agreed but it fell through when our buyers business was affected by Covid. Our previous sale agreed price was 8k over asking.

    We recently put the house back up at the same price. And we just went sale agreed on friday at 21k over asking. With 7 bidders emailing in offers on the day we had set for final offers. And it's a cash buyer to boot.

    We've been looking at houses at the same time although we not rushed as we've somewhere else to live. We've noticed properties that were previously sale agreed back up at the same price. But this time, the bids on them are higher than pre covid. And even the limited number of new 2nd hand homes to the market where we're looking all have offers over asking. Not a sniff of any reductions in the prices we were accustomed to looking at back in January and February.

    Not sure when people are expecting reductions to happen. But our experiences so far have been increases and the opposite to some of the comments here about prices falling. Not sure what's going on. We'll probably wait till after summer and look to buy a house as cash buyers ourselves. Hoping some of the predictions of prices dropping are true. But no sign of it for us so far.


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    #9123
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Neamhshuntasach wrote: »
    But no sign of it for us so far.

    First buyer did not finish the deal for Covid reason and you did not see the sign.I could only tell you one thing You are lucky seller who sold his property in very good time.
    I think if somebody buy property now there is people who got mortgage and who hurry buy property because they will not repossesed if they will lose job.
    Because they geting mortgage because they has job which they can lose very soon and they know that
    Because banks will start asking for bigger deposits and many who has 20 per cent now will not save more.
    By the other words people hurry to last train getting last tickets.
    As I mentioned before Dublin prices started stagnating last year the net is full of information about it.
    By the way it is too early speak about property market now.Lets wait Christmas sales :)


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    #9124
    accensi0n
    Registered Users Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭accensi0n


    Not too early for you apparently. :pac:


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    #9125
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    IsErik wrote: »
    Not at all, it's a flawed model.


    If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

    US is a ****hole

    You should be happy we live in a decent country that won't drag people out of homes lightly

    Some people :rolleyes:


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    #9126
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    neutral guy wrote: »
    By the other words people hurry to last train getting last tickets.

    Good way of putting

    12 months time when those mortgage approvals have expired will tell alot


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    #9127
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Yes, but as Awec points out, if your friend gets turfed out and the state has to fund social housing for her, and everyone like her, taxes would likely have to increase to fund that, so what you save in interest reduction, might be partially offset by paying more tax.

    Her mortgage was sold to a vulture fund & the council have already told her that they will buy it when the time comes.

    I would much prefer that councils build social housing & house people themselves rather than buy expensive homes that people don't pay for in order to keep them housed.
    In this case, this case the council will buy a big house, in the country, on its own land, when they could house the family in a smaller cheaper house.
    Thereby leaving the bigger more expensive house to be sold by the mortgage company.


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    #9128
    Queasy Tadpole
    Registered Users Posts: 219 ✭✭Queasy Tadpole


    Neamhshuntasach wrote: »
    I've read this thread here and there over the last few months as we had been previously sale agreed but it fell through when our buyers business was affected by Covid. Our previous sale agreed price was 8k over asking.

    We recently put the house back up at the same price. And we just went sale agreed on friday at 21k over asking. With 7 bidders emailing in offers on the day we had set for final offers. And it's a cash buyer to boot.

    We've been looking at houses at the same time although we not rushed as we've somewhere else to live. We've noticed properties that were previously sale agreed back up at the same price. But this time, the bids on them are higher than pre covid. And even the limited number of new 2nd hand homes to the market where we're looking all have offers over asking. Not a sniff of any reductions in the prices we were accustomed to looking at back in January and February.

    Not sure when people are expecting reductions to happen. But our experiences so far have been increases and the opposite to some of the comments here about prices falling. Not sure what's going on. We'll probably wait till after summer and look to buy a house as cash buyers ourselves. Hoping some of the predictions of prices dropping are true. But no sign of it for us so far.
    What's the price range of the house if you don't mind? 21k over asking is crazy.



    Myself and the wife had ours up before the whole mess and took it down. Looking to get going soon now again.


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    #9129
    Awkwardstroke
    Registered Users Posts: 94 ✭✭Awkwardstroke


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    Climate change includes more extreme weather (like snowstorms in the Winter, Record periods of rainfall, more storms + higher sea level).

    Not deny the negatives, yet some positive aspects should also be noted (for a bit of balance). For example with other parts of the world suffering increasing heatwaves in summers, Ireland will Also become a more attractive place for a bearable summer holiday.

    Just some thoughts, I’m not a climate denier...yet Ireland is less vulnerable to climate change than many other EU states (ie Southern Europe for water shortages and heatwaves).


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    #9130
    IAmTheReign
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    IsErik wrote: »
    Not at all, it's a flawed model.


    If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

    The idea that foreclosures happen quickly in the US is a myth. In Q1 2020 the foreclosure process took an average of nearly 2 years to complete.
    Properties foreclosed in the first quarter of 2020 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 673 days, down 19 percent from an average 834 days for properties foreclosed in the fourth quarter of 2019 and down 19 percent from an average of 835 days for properties foreclosed in the first quarter of 2019.


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    #9131
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    Queasy Tadpole wrote: »
    What's the price range of the house if you don't mind? 21k over asking is crazy.



    Myself and the wife had ours up before the whole mess and took it down. Looking to get going soon now again.

    A house in castleknock we have been watching is now 40k over asking on auctioneera.

    It's mad money for the house size.

    Edit; asking was 490k


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    #9132
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    I was talking to my uncle yesterday and he told me he has had 5 offers in all asking or above since putting his house back on the market about 2 weeks ago.

    He was sale agreed at the asking price in February. The buyer was trying to get 20% off the price due to covid for the last 2 months. My uncle just lost patience (he was happy to take 10% off the price but buyer wanted 20% off) and told the agent to put it back on the market at the original asking price thinking he will have to settle for less.

    Bids were still coming in Friday and the highest bid is about 15k higher than what he was even sale agreed at.
    EA told him there would be more bids this week from the interest he has been getting. So it was looking bleak for a while but it looks like the sale is going to be strong.


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    #9133
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    One guy who has business on spare parts market for transport industry bought very nice car from North just before Covid mess.
    The car was standing beside his house and now he sold it.The other step he selling his caravan in holiday park at Irish sea cost I dont know the reason why because season only started / people not going for holiday abroad and he could make good money renting it as he did before.
    But one reason I know exactly he gonna buy house for his son near place he live and he know something more than I know.
    About rising prices in Dublin described above.
    Could somebody explain me were money coming from ?
    Is there is massive winnings of lotto on Dublin area ? Banks started spread money from helicopter in city center ?
    People started earn more seating at home during Covid quarantine ?
    Were this jumps from ? When last year prices was landing .
    Or its just last dinner before dance on electric chair ?


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    #9134
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    Its been discussed multiple times in here, there was obviously a lot of pent up demand due to the pause button being pressed on the whole market for 3 months. Also people who have approval and want to get the sale through as they may not get approval in 6 months, together with the economy being artificially being propped up by the covid payments.

    Maybe in 6-12 months we will see the true effect of covid, which may be minimal due to a simple supply vs demand issue and minimal effects of 2nd/ 3rd waves etc. or it may be significant if we enter into a major recession as is predicted and those further waves continue to disrupt the economy.

    Using sales today as a predictor of where the market will be in 6 months is absolutely impossible.


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    #9135
    Spring Celebrator
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭Spring Celebrator


    combat14 wrote: »
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

    Coronavirus: Germany's R number rockets again - from 1.79 to 2.88 - Up 60% in one day
    Hope we are not opening up again too soon..

    Our numbers weren't great either. Ireland was at the bottom of the EU together with Spain, UK, Italy etc. 7th from bottom deaths/million, 10th infected/million.


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    #9136
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    19233974 wrote: »
    Its been discussed multiple times in here, there was obviously a lot of pent up demand due to the pause button being pressed on the whole market for 3 months. Also people who have approval and want to get the sale through as they may not get approval in 6 months, together with the economy being artificially being propped up by the covid payments.

    Maybe in 6-12 months we will see the true effect of covid, which may be minimal due to a simple supply vs demand issue and minimal effects of 2nd/ 3rd waves etc. or it may be significant if we enter into a major recession as is predicted and those further waves continue to disrupt the economy.

    Using sales today as a predictor of where the market will be in 6 months is absolutely impossible.

    Most of the time that argument was made tough it was rubbished on here.

    There is a huge demand issue in Dublin; it hasn't gone away despite Covid.

    Its also likely that the people pushing up these prices were likely unaffected by Covid, whether this continues to be the case or not is unclear, but its certainly not a clear cut drop to the bottom as many posters on here would make out.


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    #9137
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,116 ✭✭✭combat14


    Restaurants, Hotels, Pubs Industry now looking for 1.8 Billion Euro bailout to survive - the latest line is there wont be any staycations if leisure industry is not bailed out soon

    Reports already of 20% increase in prices for hotel rooms etc.

    On top of banks & central bank predictions of 5-15% drop in house prices don't see how people can pay current asking prices for houses

    The houses tor sale in my estate have been sitting there since last August/September .. it is nothing to do with Covid 19 they are just plain and simple too dear I.e. asking for 10-20% above the average price in this estate for the last 10 years


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    #9138
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Most of the time that argument was made though it was rubbished on here.

    Are you rubbishing it or just engaging in conjecture/hearsay?


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    #9139
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Most of the time that argument was made tough it was rubbished on here.

    There is a huge demand issue in Dublin; it hasn't gone away despite Covid.

    Its also likely that the people pushing up these prices were likely unaffected by Covid, whether this continues to be the case or not is unclear, but its certainly not a clear cut drop to the bottom as many posters on here would make out.


    I suspect there is going to be a huge supply issue coming too.


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    #9140
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I suspect there is going to be a huge supply issue coming too.

    There was planning granted for nearly 10k apartments in Q1 2020, up from 2k in Q1 2019. There should be a nice increase in units delivered over the next couple of years.


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    #9141
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    There was planning granted for nearly 10k apartments in Q1 2020, up from 2k in Q1 2019. There should be a nice increase in units delivered over the next couple of years.

    are they going to the rental market or owner occupied?

    It will be interesting to see how many of them go ahead over the next 12 months.


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    #9142
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,505 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    There was planning granted for nearly 10k apartments in Q1 2020, up from 2k in Q1 2019. There should be a nice increase in units delivered over the next couple of years.

    That's if they're built.


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    #9143
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    There was planning granted for nearly 10k apartments in Q1 2020, up from 2k in Q1 2019. There should be a nice increase in units delivered over the next couple of years.

    Planning is not finished properties.
    Wait an see.
    I think the only way they will be built is if they are those ones that there is a deal made to lease by the councils already.
    And if that happens, they will be council rentals and a significant dent in the tax payers pocket too.


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    #9144
    lastusername
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭lastusername


    awec wrote: »
    That's if they're built.


    Also, I believe most go straight to the rental market.


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    #9145
    19233974
    Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭19233974


    lastusername wrote: »
    Also, I believe most go straight to the rental market.

    the rental market is going to be in trouble this year for sure, would be amazing if some developers actually built to sell to citizens of the country! remember that concept! Although i fear a lot of these developments will be on hold due to the risk of a reit not snapping it up


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    #9146
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    lastusername wrote: »
    Also, I believe most go straight to the rental market.
    If there will be jobs and workers who will pay the rent in those apartments.At the moment I see many people leaving Dublin and go home to parents houses.


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    #9147
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    awec wrote: »
    That's if they're built.

    If we stop our construction industry and add that to the list of desimated industries you get construction, retail, food, tourism, commercial property and farming. That's a bleak future, one that doesn't bear thinking about really.


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    #9148
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    19233974 wrote: »
    Its been discussed multiple times in here, there was obviously a lot of pent up demand due to the pause button being pressed on the whole market for 3 months. Also people who have approval and want to get the sale through as they may not get approval in 6 months, together with the economy being artificially being propped up by the covid payments.

    Maybe in 6-12 months we will see the true effect of covid, which may be minimal due to a simple supply vs demand issue and minimal effects of 2nd/ 3rd waves etc. or it may be significant if we enter into a major recession as is predicted and those further waves continue to disrupt the economy.

    Using sales today as a predictor of where the market will be in 6 months is absolutely impossible.


    Also worth considering the price range of the properties that are seeing significant bids over asking - perhaps properties on the higher end (i.e. over 450k) will likely be the least affected by COVID as bidders are higher earners and not as likely to have been financially affected by COVID?
    Anyone following apartment prices in Dublin? I'd reckon apartments under 350k would see some stagnation as it's more likely that buyers would be first time buyers (not a cash buyer), and more likely to be employed in industries that were impacted by COVID?


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    #9149
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    19233974 wrote: »
    the rental market is going to be in trouble this year for sure, would be amazing if some developers actually built to sell to citizens of the country! remember that concept! Although i fear a lot of these developments will be on hold due to the risk of a reit not snapping it up


    Would REITs continue to expand their portfolio in Dublin, given the economic uncertainties lying ahead?

    I'd reckon REITs will start to put on hold some larger acquisitions - unless the Government and councils continue to snap up developments for social housing directly from a REIT (which in my opinion is a very poor long term strategy).

    Commercial property funds have already seen significant impacts in rent collection:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/rent-collections-in-aviva-property-funds-as-low-as-60-amid-covid-19-1.4259543


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    #9150
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,981 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    I think property prices rising fast during a global recession sounds very like us, this will be a interesting year for the residential property market.

    Commercial is gone though, it was on its legs towards the end of last year before any of this started.


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    #9151
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    neutral guy wrote: »
    About rising prices in Dublin described above.
    Could somebody explain me were money coming from ?
    Is there is massive winnings of lotto on Dublin area ? Banks started spread money from helicopter in city center ?
    People started earn more seating at home during Covid quarantine ?
    Were this jumps from ? When last year prices was landing .
    Or its just last dinner before dance on electric chair ?

    There is a cool 120 billion sitting on deposit in Irish financial institutions.
    Its not earning any interest (and in some cases, is actually loosing nominal value when fees are factored into the equation).
    People are looking for other places to drop their cash.
    There is still a constraint in the housing sector here- it might not be as tight as it once was- but it is still constrained.

    People are looking for other places to put their money- and there are lots of people out there with plenty of cold hard cash.


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