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Property Market 2020

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    #9092
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    IsErik wrote: »
    It will be the best thing you ever do, let all the greedy fools borrow "free money" (that has to be paid back plus interest btw).


    Pick up a bargain and let them live out the rest of their lives on the hedonistic treadmill of consumer debt. You will sleep well at night

    This is the long held argument. While the person who bought the house is paying it back the prices might fall. At the same time the person who didnt buy is paying rent and potentially saving money to buy the house the prices might fall.

    Who knows how much a house has to fall by to put the renter in a better position than the buyer. I reckon at least 2-3% per year to be on par I guess - I could try and do some fancy calculations to figure out the exact number!


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    #9093
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    LJ12345 wrote: »
    This would be true in a balanced market

    As you probably remember from 2007 the greatest saying from all mans and womans in power was : There is No need any regulation ! Market will regulate its self !
    Finally we all see how market "regulated" everything in 2009.There was good prices and buyers with cash was very happy about it !
    Believe me,when property owners will have dealing with banks ,market will be balanced very quickly ,same as in 2009 for example.


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    #9094
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    neutral guy wrote: »
    One of them me.I drive 16 years old car,I pay motor tax for year ahead that save me 100 euros per year.I ve third party insurance.When oil prices went down I filled my full heating oil tank with heating oil for 25 cents per ltr because last winter I paid 57 per ltr.I pay 2 mortgages in my country 1 year ahead that give me flexibility if I will lose job.I use 7 years old laptop and old Nokia phone which I bought in 2007 because my smart phone broke down 6 months ago.I am carpenter and I use every chance get extra cash.I have 3 pairs of shoes which I use last 4 years and I coming back from Tesco with food with yellow stickers on it.I live this live about 6 years and I dont know how I can spent money because my life style is not spend them,I simply dont have time for it,the last year I was working 7 months without a single day off.This is my life style at the moment and I gonna continue it because I want buy house for cash.

    Got it, and I think there is more people like you now, who are able to save and are prepared, than it was in 2008, and that's what makes part of the Property Market so different. There is more people with large saving in their accounts, and there is less supplies in this crisis.


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    #9095
    LJ12345
    Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭LJ12345


    Don’t forget the fundamentals are different to the GFC in 2008, banks haven’t been lending 110% mortgages and are covered for a 10-20% drop in prices, builders haven’t been building like they were before, they’re selling in phases before building the next phase, lessons were learnt. This is an unprecedented time but I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the same position we found ourselves in 2008.
    neutral guy wrote: »
    As you probably remember from 2007 the greatest saying from all mans and womans in power was : There is No need any regulation ! Market will regulate its self !
    Finally we all see how market "regulated" everything in 2009.There was good prices and buyers with cash was very happy about it !
    Believe me,when property owners will have dealing with banks ,market will be balanced very quickly ,same as in 2009 for example.


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    #9096
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    LJ12345 wrote: »
    I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the same position we found ourselves in 2008.
    I believe and I getting ready for it.


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    #9097
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    neutral guy wrote: »
    I believe and I getting ready for it.

    What are you getting ready for


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    #9098
    LJ12345
    Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭LJ12345


    Whatever it is I hope he finds it. But he’ll have competition if he’s getting ready for something cheap and in any way desirable.
    JJJackal wrote: »
    What are you getting ready for


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    #9099
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Mad_maxx wrote: »

    banks cant make any money in this country due to our bizarre repossession culture

    The mortgage rate in Ireland one of the highest in world ,people who pay mortgage cover banks expenses of people who does not pay mortgage.
    Bank put administration tax on any account and every single person who has account will pay or does already to the bank money which bank loosing due with somebody who does not pay mortgage.
    Banks getting money back trough own insurance groups which provide life and house insurance to mortgage holders.
    Bank can drop profit from one year to another to avoid pay taxes and this is normal practice of every bank in world.
    Patrick bought one house for short term rent then another for long term rent ,he got profit from one and invested in another one.
    Tourists did not came to country bank want his money after mortgage holiday and Patrick will have sell one house to save another.The question is for how much and how long bank will wait.There will be no problem with repossession culture because Patrick has many properties.
    And here we have cash buyer on one side which has unlimited time to wait and Patrick which has very limited time to sell.
    What gonna happen ? Or Patrick or bank will sell Patrick house.
    As far we know there is already bubble on renting market
    The next step
    Due with economy difficulties banks will ask for bigger deposits for mortgage lets say from 20 to 40 per cent ( what happened in my country )
    Automatically who has saved 20 per cent for deposit will lose opportunity buy house
    What gonna happen with prices when there will be less buyers ?
    As far we know there is problems with first time buyers already
    Builders asking government extend the program,.


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    #9100
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    A carpenter seemingly delighted at a potentially fooked economy so he can buy a cheap house...... Mental stuff.
    Probably has 3k saved up.


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    #9101
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭ebayissues


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    It's inevitable that it will be extended through Christmas. But it is absolutely necessary so long as there are ridiculous restrictions being imposed on our day to day life. It just won't be possible to implement some restrictions in relation to the virus and not also have to prop up the economy at the same time. I was thinking a few weeks ago that Q2 data next year (July onwards) will start to show the initial impacts of Covid19 on the property market but I now think it's looking more like Q3 data onwards. Which means that claims of a recovery, collapse or steadying in respect of property before October 2021 are based on nothing but conjecture and I am not taking such comments seriously.


    Mortgage breaks and extending the COV19 payments is only prolonging the inevitable. As it stands the breaks and payments are ensuring stability in the proprty market and economy.



    Both won't continue forever. As a buyer I'm qute disappointed both are continued tbh.


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    #9102
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    ebayissues wrote: »
    Mortgage breaks and extending the COV19 payments is only prolonging the inevitable. As it stands the breaks and payments are ensuring stability in the proprty market and economy.



    Both won't continue forever. As a buyer I'm qute disappointed both are continued tbh.

    We are also buyers.

    What impact you see the payments breaks having? I don't think we live in a country where people will be kicked out if they miss mortgage repayments. In any case, these properties would likely take years to filter into the market.

    One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.


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    #9103
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    JJJackal wrote: »
    What are you getting ready for


    This (from the World Economic Forum): https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/coronavirus-covid19-economic-recession-global-compared


    • The COVID-19 pandemic is currently forecast to cause the worst global recession since World War II.
    • Economic output is expected to significantly reduce in almost every country.
    • Global unemployment is expected to rise to its highest level since 1965.
    • Retail spending and oil demand has also dropped to unprecedented levels.



    Fasten your seat belts


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    #9104
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    ebayissues wrote: »
    Mortgage breaks and extending the COV19 payments is only prolonging the inevitable. As it stands the breaks and payments are ensuring stability in the proprty market and economy.



    Both won't continue forever. As a buyer I'm qute disappointed both are continued tbh.


    Gutted, how long are they expected to continue for?


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    #9105
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    We are also buyers.

    What impact you see the payments breaks having? I don't think we live in a country where people will be kicked out if they miss mortgage repayments. In any case, these properties would likely take years to filter into the market.

    One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.


    We really need to make a case for repossessions, completely bizarre model we follow here.


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    #9106
    fret_wimp2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭fret_wimp2


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    We are also buyers.


    One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.

    What's recession proof nowdays?
    Education was once close to it but covid and travel restrictions have sewn that up.
    Public service, which most class as recession proof actually find it more difficult to get a mortgage due to levys and government have show they will apply levys to public service if needs be.
    Big tech will move where it can get decent work cheaply.

    Certainly some jobs make it easier to get a mortgage but none are recession proof.


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    #9107
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    IsErik wrote: »
    We really need to make a case for repossessions, completely bizarre model we follow here.

    You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.


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    #9108
    IsErik
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭IsErik


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.


    Not at all, it's a flawed model.


    If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.


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    #9109
    fret_wimp2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭fret_wimp2


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

    As home owners we pay double the interest of other countries to cover the risk and cost of mortgage defaulters for the banks. It's in most people's interests that sensible rules are upheld in relation to repossessions.


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    #9110
    thomasdylan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 514 ✭✭✭thomasdylan


    fret_wimp2 wrote: »
    Public service, which most class as recession proof actually find it more difficult to get a mortgage due to levys and government have show they will apply levys to public service if needs be.

    I don't think this is true.


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    #9111
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    IsErik wrote: »
    Not at all, it's a flawed model.


    If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

    This is simply not true.


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    #9112
    fret_wimp2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,905 ✭✭✭fret_wimp2


    thomasdylan wrote: »
    I don't think this is true.


    I know it is, unless kbc mortgage advisors have incorrect info.

    it's a sepetate little part of the kbc mortgage form. I asked the mortgage advisor to exain why single out public service and his explication was that they pay extra levies, which is taken into account when assessing applicability for mortgage and how much they may get.


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    #9113
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,509 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    People understand that the reason repossession is so difficult here is because governments know that in the case of repossession the burden falls from the banks to the taxpayer, and it’s not a burden that any recent government particularly wants to take on, right?

    For every house that’s repossessed it’s another family on the social housing list, a list that’s already a decade long.

    Given the way recent elections have gone, I’d think you’d have to be living in some sort of dreamworld if you’re expecting anything to change in this regard. To think the state will take on this task during a recession is somewhat questionable.


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    #9114
    Renjit
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    We are also buyers.

    What impact you see the payments breaks having? I don't think we live in a country where people will be kicked out if they miss mortgage repayments. In any case, these properties would likely take years to filter into the market.

    One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.

    Exactly, recession will make it harder to get mortgage and may add additional restrictions.


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    #9115
    thomasdylan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 514 ✭✭✭thomasdylan


    fret_wimp2 wrote: »
    I know it is, unless kbc mortgage advisors have incorrect info.

    it's a sepetate little part of the kbc mortgage form. I asked the mortgage advisor to exain why single out public service and his explication was that they pay extra levies, which is taken into account when assessing applicability for mortgage and how much they may get.

    I didn't realise that. I was approved for an exemption with Kbc about two years ago as a PS worker. Didn't go with them in the end but things must have changed. Exemptions are definitely out the window for the year at least.


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    #9116
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

    Well that's not true. I have been a renter & a home owner & I believe they should be more repossessions in this country.
    A friend of mine hasn't paid a mortgage payment in over 8 years. Still in her house & there is no chance of her being put out.
    Perhaps if people actually paid their mortgage debt the interest rates wouldn't be so high here.


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    #9117
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    I know its not a popular point to make but when our pillar banks were recapitalised provision was made to deal with the bad debt in the housing sector , our banks sat on that capital and chose instead to flog off the assets to Vulture funds saving themselves the hassle of dealing with it breaking even in the process . The precipitous nature and depth of our crash and the level of losses sustained drove out any foreign competition so the field is now open to charge whatever interest rates they think the market can stand with the tacit approval of government.


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    #9118
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,908 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    bubblypop wrote: »
    Well that's not true. I have been a renter & a home owner & I believe they should be more repossessions in this country.
    A friend of mine hasn't paid a mortgage payment in over 8 years. Still in her house & there is no chance of her being put out.
    Perhaps if people actually paid their mortgage debt the interest rates wouldn't be so high here.

    Yes, but as Awec points out, if your friend gets turfed out and the state has to fund social housing for her, and everyone like her, taxes would likely have to increase to fund that, so what you save in interest reduction, might be partially offset by paying more tax.


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    #9119
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭combat14


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

    Coronavirus: Germany's R number rockets again - from 1.79 to 2.88 - Up 60% in one day

    Hope we are not opening up again too soon..


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    #9120
    lastusername
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭lastusername


    IsErik wrote: »
    Not at all, it's a flawed model.

    It's a compassionate model where the family home is sacrosanct. Agree there should be repossessions for cases like the above where someone is maybe just deciding not to pay, but where they actually can.
    IsErik wrote: »
    If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

    No, it'd actually get worse given people who get turfed out still have to live somewhere. In fact, certain homes that should be repossesed are in many cases likely to be de facto social housing.


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    #9121
    Neamhshuntasach
    Registered Users Posts: 2,168 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    combat14 wrote: »
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

    Coronavirus: Germany's R number rockets again - from 1.79 to 2.88 - Up 60% in one day

    Hope we are not opening up again too soon..

    Related to local issues in slaughter houses and a church which distort overall numbers. The national community R value is less than 1 as reported today.


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