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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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Marius34

neutral guy wrote: »

One of them me.I drive 16 years old car,I pay motor tax for year ahead that save me 100 euros per year.I ve third party insurance.When oil prices went down I filled my full heating oil tank with heating oil for 25 cents per ltr because last winter I paid 57 per ltr.I pay 2 mortgages in my country 1 year ahead that give me flexibility if I will lose job.I use 7 years old laptop and old Nokia phone which I bought in 2007 because my smart phone broke down 6 months ago.I am carpenter and I use every chance get extra cash.I have 3 pairs of shoes which I use last 4 years and I coming back from Tesco with food with yellow stickers on it.I live this live about 6 years and I dont know how I can spent money because my life style is not spend them,I simply dont have time for it,the last year I was working 7 months without a single day off.This is my life style at the moment and I gonna continue it because I want buy house for cash.

Got it, and I think there is more people like you now, who are able to save and are prepared, than it was in 2008, and that's what makes part of the Property Market so different. There is more people with large saving in their accounts, and there is less supplies in this crisis.

LJ12345

Don’t forget the fundamentals are different to the GFC in 2008, banks haven’t been lending 110% mortgages and are covered for a 10-20% drop in prices, builders haven’t been building like they were before, they’re selling in phases before building the next phase, lessons were learnt. This is an unprecedented time but I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the same position we found ourselves in 2008.

neutral guy wrote: »

As you probably remember from 2007 the greatest saying from all mans and womans in power was : There is No need any regulation ! Market will regulate its self !
Finally we all see how market "regulated" everything in 2009.There was good prices and buyers with cash was very happy about it !
Believe me,when property owners will have dealing with banks ,market will be balanced very quickly ,same as in 2009 for example.

neutral guy

LJ12345 wrote: »

I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the same position we found ourselves in 2008.

I believe and I getting ready for it.

JJJackal

neutral guy wrote: »

I believe and I getting ready for it.

What are you getting ready for

LJ12345

Whatever it is I hope he finds it. But he’ll have competition if he’s getting ready for something cheap and in any way desirable.

JJJackal wrote: »

What are you getting ready for

neutral guy

Mad_maxx wrote: »

banks cant make any money in this country due to our bizarre repossession culture

The mortgage rate in Ireland one of the highest in world ,people who pay mortgage cover banks expenses of people who does not pay mortgage.
Bank put administration tax on any account and every single person who has account will pay or does already to the bank money which bank loosing due with somebody who does not pay mortgage.
Banks getting money back trough own insurance groups which provide life and house insurance to mortgage holders.
Bank can drop profit from one year to another to avoid pay taxes and this is normal practice of every bank in world.
Patrick bought one house for short term rent then another for long term rent ,he got profit from one and invested in another one.
Tourists did not came to country bank want his money after mortgage holiday and Patrick will have sell one house to save another.The question is for how much and how long bank will wait.There will be no problem with repossession culture because Patrick has many properties.
And here we have cash buyer on one side which has unlimited time to wait and Patrick which has very limited time to sell.
What gonna happen ? Or Patrick or bank will sell Patrick house.
As far we know there is already bubble on renting market
The next step
Due with economy difficulties banks will ask for bigger deposits for mortgage lets say from 20 to 40 per cent ( what happened in my country )
Automatically who has saved 20 per cent for deposit will lose opportunity buy house
What gonna happen with prices when there will be less buyers ?
As far we know there is problems with first time buyers already
Builders asking government extend the program,.

[Deleted User]

A carpenter seemingly delighted at a potentially fooked economy so he can buy a cheap house...... Mental stuff.
Probably has 3k saved up.

ebayissues

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's inevitable that it will be extended through Christmas. But it is absolutely necessary so long as there are ridiculous restrictions being imposed on our day to day life. It just won't be possible to implement some restrictions in relation to the virus and not also have to prop up the economy at the same time. I was thinking a few weeks ago that Q2 data next year (July onwards) will start to show the initial impacts of Covid19 on the property market but I now think it's looking more like Q3 data onwards. Which means that claims of a recovery, collapse or steadying in respect of property before October 2021 are based on nothing but conjecture and I am not taking such comments seriously.

Mortgage breaks and extending the COV19 payments is only prolonging the inevitable. As it stands the breaks and payments are ensuring stability in the proprty market and economy.

Both won't continue forever. As a buyer I'm qute disappointed both are continued tbh.

TheSheriff

ebayissues wrote: »

Mortgage breaks and extending the COV19 payments is only prolonging the inevitable. As it stands the breaks and payments are ensuring stability in the proprty market and economy.

Both won't continue forever. As a buyer I'm qute disappointed both are continued tbh.

We are also buyers.

What impact you see the payments breaks having? I don't think we live in a country where people will be kicked out if they miss mortgage repayments. In any case, these properties would likely take years to filter into the market.

One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.

IsErik

JJJackal wrote: »

What are you getting ready for

This (from the World Economic Forum): https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/coronavirus-covid19-economic-recession-global-compared

The COVID-19 pandemic is currently forecast to cause the worst global recession since World War II.
Economic output is expected to significantly reduce in almost every country.
Global unemployment is expected to rise to its highest level since 1965.
Retail spending and oil demand has also dropped to unprecedented levels.

Fasten your seat belts

IsErik

ebayissues wrote: »

Mortgage breaks and extending the COV19 payments is only prolonging the inevitable. As it stands the breaks and payments are ensuring stability in the proprty market and economy.

Both won't continue forever. As a buyer I'm qute disappointed both are continued tbh.

Gutted, how long are they expected to continue for?

IsErik

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are also buyers.

What impact you see the payments breaks having? I don't think we live in a country where people will be kicked out if they miss mortgage repayments. In any case, these properties would likely take years to filter into the market.

One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.

We really need to make a case for repossessions, completely bizarre model we follow here.

fret_wimp2

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are also buyers.

One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.

What's recession proof nowdays?
Education was once close to it but covid and travel restrictions have sewn that up.
Public service, which most class as recession proof actually find it more difficult to get a mortgage due to levys and government have show they will apply levys to public service if needs be.
Big tech will move where it can get decent work cheaply.

Certainly some jobs make it easier to get a mortgage but none are recession proof.

TheSheriff

IsErik wrote: »

We really need to make a case for repossessions, completely bizarre model we follow here.

You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

IsErik

TheSheriff wrote: »

You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

Not at all, it's a flawed model.

If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

fret_wimp2

TheSheriff wrote: »

You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

As home owners we pay double the interest of other countries to cover the risk and cost of mortgage defaulters for the banks. It's in most people's interests that sensible rules are upheld in relation to repossessions.

thomasdylan

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Public service, which most class as recession proof actually find it more difficult to get a mortgage due to levys and government have show they will apply levys to public service if needs be.

I don't think this is true.

TheSheriff

IsErik wrote: »

Not at all, it's a flawed model.

If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

This is simply not true.

fret_wimp2

thomasdylan wrote: »

I don't think this is true.

I know it is, unless kbc mortgage advisors have incorrect info.

it's a sepetate little part of the kbc mortgage form. I asked the mortgage advisor to exain why single out public service and his explication was that they pay extra levies, which is taken into account when assessing applicability for mortgage and how much they may get.

awec

People understand that the reason repossession is so difficult here is because governments know that in the case of repossession the burden falls from the banks to the taxpayer, and it’s not a burden that any recent government particularly wants to take on, right?

For every house that’s repossessed it’s another family on the social housing list, a list that’s already a decade long.

Given the way recent elections have gone, I’d think you’d have to be living in some sort of dreamworld if you’re expecting anything to change in this regard. To think the state will take on this task during a recession is somewhat questionable.

Renjit

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are also buyers.

What impact you see the payments breaks having? I don't think we live in a country where people will be kicked out if they miss mortgage repayments. In any case, these properties would likely take years to filter into the market.

One would think that if more people default on their mortgage after these payment breaks stop, bank lending will tighten further, so good if you are a full cash buyer, bad if you need to get a mortgage and don't have a recession proof job.

Exactly, recession will make it harder to get mortgage and may add additional restrictions.

thomasdylan

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

I know it is, unless kbc mortgage advisors have incorrect info.

it's a sepetate little part of the kbc mortgage form. I asked the mortgage advisor to exain why single out public service and his explication was that they pay extra levies, which is taken into account when assessing applicability for mortgage and how much they may get.

I didn't realise that. I was approved for an exemption with Kbc about two years ago as a PS worker. Didn't go with them in the end but things must have changed. Exemptions are definitely out the window for the year at least.

[Deleted User]

TheSheriff wrote: »

You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

Well that's not true. I have been a renter & a home owner & I believe they should be more repossessions in this country.
A friend of mine hasn't paid a mortgage payment in over 8 years. Still in her house & there is no chance of her being put out.
Perhaps if people actually paid their mortgage debt the interest rates wouldn't be so high here.

coolshannagh28

I know its not a popular point to make but when our pillar banks were recapitalised provision was made to deal with the bad debt in the housing sector , our banks sat on that capital and chose instead to flog off the assets to Vulture funds saving themselves the hassle of dealing with it breaking even in the process . The precipitous nature and depth of our crash and the level of losses sustained drove out any foreign competition so the field is now open to charge whatever interest rates they think the market can stand with the tacit approval of government.

cnocbui

bubblypop wrote: »

Well that's not true. I have been a renter & a home owner & I believe they should be more repossessions in this country.
A friend of mine hasn't paid a mortgage payment in over 8 years. Still in her house & there is no chance of her being put out.
Perhaps if people actually paid their mortgage debt the interest rates wouldn't be so high here.

Yes, but as Awec points out, if your friend gets turfed out and the state has to fund social housing for her, and everyone like her, taxes would likely have to increase to fund that, so what you save in interest reduction, might be partially offset by paying more tax.

combat14

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

Coronavirus: Germany's R number rockets again - from 1.79 to 2.88 - Up 60% in one day

Hope we are not opening up again too soon..

lastusername

IsErik wrote: »

Not at all, it's a flawed model.

It's a compassionate model where the family home is sacrosanct. Agree there should be repossessions for cases like the above where someone is maybe just deciding not to pay, but where they actually can.

IsErik wrote: »

If i didn't pay rent i'd be evicted, in the US foreclosures happen quick, if we adopted that here the housing crisis would likely be resolved.

No, it'd actually get worse given people who get turfed out still have to live somewhere. In fact, certain homes that should be repossesed are in many cases likely to be de facto social housing.

Neamhshuntasach

combat14 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

Coronavirus: Germany's R number rockets again - from 1.79 to 2.88 - Up 60% in one day

Hope we are not opening up again too soon..

Related to local issues in slaughter houses and a church which distort overall numbers. The national community R value is less than 1 as reported today.

Neamhshuntasach

I've read this thread here and there over the last few months as we had been previously sale agreed but it fell through when our buyers business was affected by Covid. Our previous sale agreed price was 8k over asking.

We recently put the house back up at the same price. And we just went sale agreed on friday at 21k over asking. With 7 bidders emailing in offers on the day we had set for final offers. And it's a cash buyer to boot.

We've been looking at houses at the same time although we not rushed as we've somewhere else to live. We've noticed properties that were previously sale agreed back up at the same price. But this time, the bids on them are higher than pre covid. And even the limited number of new 2nd hand homes to the market where we're looking all have offers over asking. Not a sniff of any reductions in the prices we were accustomed to looking at back in January and February.

Not sure when people are expecting reductions to happen. But our experiences so far have been increases and the opposite to some of the comments here about prices falling. Not sure what's going on. We'll probably wait till after summer and look to buy a house as cash buyers ourselves. Hoping some of the predictions of prices dropping are true. But no sign of it for us so far.

neutral guy

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

But no sign of it for us so far.

First buyer did not finish the deal for Covid reason and you did not see the sign.I could only tell you one thing You are lucky seller who sold his property in very good time.
I think if somebody buy property now there is people who got mortgage and who hurry buy property because they will not repossesed if they will lose job.
Because they geting mortgage because they has job which they can lose very soon and they know that
Because banks will start asking for bigger deposits and many who has 20 per cent now will not save more.
By the other words people hurry to last train getting last tickets.
As I mentioned before Dublin prices started stagnating last year the net is full of information about it.
By the way it is too early speak about property market now.Lets wait Christmas sales