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Share Picks 2020

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,456 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Gonna add to Livongo and Spotify this morning, selling Nike to fund it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭HelloYoungBoy


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Gonna add to Livongo and Spotify this morning, selling Nike to fund it.

    What are your thoughts on Spotify? Feels a bit overpriced now after the recent surge


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Sad story coming out of America this morning, 20 year old guy who got into Robinhood (their Degiro), misunderstood his balance and thought he was $700k in debt and committed suicide as a result

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/young-trader-dies-by-suicide-after-thinking-he-racked-up-big-losses-on-robinhood.html

    Robinhood will have to clarify what happened there IMO.

    It is likely that he didn’t actually have 700k in debt and the amount he saw on the app was representing something else.

    But regardless of him being in debt or not, they should never have given a young unemployed inexperienced investor access to financial tools he didn’t understand and which engaged amounts of money which were way beyond his mental ability to handle them.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 5,029 Mod ✭✭✭✭GoldFour4


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Robinhood will have to clarify what happened there IMO.

    It is likely that he didn’t actually have 700k in debt and the amount he saw on the app was representing something else.

    But regardless of him being in debt or not, they should never have given a young unemployed inexperienced investor access to financial tools he didn’t understand and which engaged amounts of money which were way beyond his mental ability to handle them.

    Yeah this is the key bit here. The ease with which a 20 year old with no experience can get into a situation where he is availing of leverage way beyond his means is mad.

    I wonder do Robinhood have tests you have to complete before you can trade instruments like that? I've no interest in using leverage on a Degiro or an equivalent (or delving into derivatives on a personal account at all for that matter) so I'm not sure if the Degiro test is adequate to ensure users are aware of the risk involved.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    I had a cheeky buy order in at $0.73 for NBRV

    Must have wicked down for a split second to fill it and closed it out a few min ago at $0.84

    I’ll take that before the weekend


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Long term bug on Robinhood giving crazy amounts on positions aftermarket/weekends/holidays etc according to Wallstreetbets, Degiro used to be like that with ASX positions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    just checked the chart on NBRV, it had a momentary massive wick down to 0.69 and I say a lot of people were stopped out


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    just checked the chart on NBRV, it had a momentary massive wick down to 0.69 and I say a lot of people were stopped out

    I saw that, if the FDA approval is out today and it goes 'to the moon' you'd wonder about these vertical drops shaking out people with stop losses and the motives behind them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    I'm out. I left down like 2% happy with that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,456 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    What are your thoughts on Spotify? Feels a bit overpriced now after the recent surge

    Completely changes their business model, so different company to their old business (and valuation) as I see it. Up to now they had very little control over their costs (music contracts) or content (artists could say no to having their music on Spotify). They’ve now gone on the offensive, signing podcasts to exclusive deals so solved both of those issues. They also bought the company/software that produces a lot of podcasts so they make money even on podcasts on other players. I reckon Podcasts will be hugely valuable Advertising space in the future, given you have people’s undivided attention and can’t skip like on TV, and you’ve much more targeted (football fans listen to football podcasts) compared to radio.

    I see a huge future for Spotify, one of my biggest holdings.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,456 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Bob24 wrote: »

    It is likely that he didn’t actually have 700k in debt and the amount he saw on the app was representing something else.
    The CNBC article above explains what likely happened

    “ The $730,000 amount could have been reflecting the other side of an options trade not settled yet and the value of stocks tied to those options.

    A corresponding trade to cover a purchase is often not executed until the following trading day, which Robinhood tells its users via email and notifications. In that case, cash and buying power will come up as negative until the other side has not been processed. The temporary negative display is not a balance of debt and the overall portfolio value would reflect the value of the account. ”


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Anyone taking a punt on Wirecard? Id say its easy money tbh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭HelloYoungBoy


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Completely changes their business model, so different company to their old business (and valuation) as I see it. Up to now they had very little control over their costs (music contracts) or content (artists could say no to having their music on Spotify). They’ve now gone on the offensive, signing podcasts to exclusive deals so solved both of those issues. They also bought the company/software that produces a lot of podcasts so they make money even on podcasts on other players. I reckon Podcasts will be hugely valuable Advertising space in the future, given you have people’s undivided attention and can’t skip like on TV, and you’ve much more targeted (football fans listen to football podcasts) compared to radio.

    I see a huge future for Spotify, one of my biggest holdings.

    Great analysis thanks. I'm new here but from what I've seen so far you post a lot of excellent opinions and commentary. Keep it up


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 447 ✭✭iAcesHigh


    Thargor wrote: »
    Anyone taking a punt on Wirecard? Id say its easy money tbh.

    easy money to lose money? It's pure gamble as it can obv jump up like Hertz did, but if fraud is proven it's going straight down to 0...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    If I manage 10% on each purchase I'm satisfied


    Newbie here



    After you pay tax and a fee to DeGiro or similar, isn't that 10% pretty much nothing?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 871 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Newbie here



    After you pay tax and a fee to DeGiro or similar, isn't that 10% pretty much nothing?

    It depends.

    €1270 profit is tax free per year per person (so if you're going to make more than €1270 it makes sense for your other half to be making some of the profit).
    Degiro fees are cheap. Depends on the share but buying and selling fees could be €1 in total. Other companies (eg Trading 212) have no fees on share trades.
    Tax on most profits above the €1270 is 33%.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,918 ✭✭✭daheff


    iAcesHigh wrote: »
    easy money to lose money? It's pure gamble as it can obv jump up like Hertz did, but if fraud is proven it's going straight down to 0...

    I'm in on this stock. I've been watching it for a few years and have to say it's a bizarre story. How do you misplace 2bn of your 2.2bn cash pile??? All the while having 2+bn of debt.

    Revenue issues are also bizarre. These should be relatively easily proven during an audit.

    KPMG had an investigation into the company and concluded there was no fraud, but notes they hadn't been given everything they requested.

    Strange story all round.

    They do seem to have a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc.

    Pure pint right now until loans/annual report/cash bals issues are resolved. IF they are, then can see this stock 100-200 quite quickly.....if not....could be a bank led sale....so probably nothing for shareholders.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭bcklschaps


    bcklschaps wrote: »
    My thoughts precisely. I have a small holding of GAN. I got in about 2 weeks ago on the basis that Michael Smurfit snr invested. I assume his family connections advised him it was a good investment.


    https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-michael-smurfit-sr-reports-98-stak/brief-michael-smurfit-sr-reports-98-stake-in-gan-ltd-idUSFWN2DF0D1


    SP promptly went down 17% of course from that point.... I'm just about back up at BEP now. But onwards and upwards

    This has had a great week. Up about 40%

    Even my holding is showing
    a healthy +20%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,921 ✭✭✭dashcamdanny


    Bought Hertz last week and forgot about it. Dam it. was only a couple of hundred but still. Dam it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    Bad news from NBRV, CRL issued due to inspection delay, glad I got out near my break even price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    Kilboor wrote: »
    Bad news from NBRV, CRL issued due to inspection delay, glad I got out near my break even price.

    I'd expect it to open down on Monday and bleed for a few days. Might pick up a few mid-week if that's the case.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 447 ✭✭iAcesHigh


    daheff wrote: »
    I'm in on this stock. I've been watching it for a few years and have to say it's a bizarre story. How do you misplace 2bn of your 2.2bn cash pile??? All the while having 2+bn of debt.

    Revenue issues are also bizarre. These should be relatively easily proven during an audit.

    KPMG had an investigation into the company and concluded there was no fraud, but notes they hadn't been given everything they requested.

    Strange story all round.

    They do seem to have a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc.

    Pure pint right now until loans/annual report/cash bals issues are resolved. IF they are, then can see this stock 100-200 quite quickly.....if not....could be a bank led sale....so probably nothing for shareholders.

    Well, with CEO now gone and at least two Asian banks who supposedly held that money stating they don't have any relationship with this company, I feel this is even a bigger gamble then putting it all on one of the horses coming back to tracks. Honestly, I'm happy to be just an observer, especially since I was quite close to opening position 2 weeks ago...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    Bob Harris wrote: »
    I'd expect it to open down on Monday and bleed for a few days. Might pick up a few mid-week if that's the case.

    same, I'll set a buy order in the 60's and see what happens, no harm in chancing it that low


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,500 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    daheff wrote: »
    I'm in on this stock. I've been watching it for a few years and have to say it's a bizarre story. How do you misplace 2bn of your 2.2bn cash pile??? All the while having 2+bn of debt.

    Revenue issues are also bizarre. These should be relatively easily proven during an audit.

    KPMG had an investigation into the company and concluded there was no fraud, but notes they hadn't been given everything they requested.

    Strange story all round.

    They do seem to have a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc.


    Pure pint right now until loans/annual report/cash bals issues are resolved. IF they are, then can see this stock 100-200 quite quickly.....if not....could be a bank led sale....so probably nothing for shareholders.

    Have you every done an audit, been involved in an investigation?

    One of the basic things you do is verify the balance sheet items. You check all the documentation provided by the company and you verify the closing balance by independent confirmation directly from the third party.

    Now you have just been told that the balances don't exist and not only that but the banks have no relationship with our client... so what the hell kind of documents has the client been presenting you with????

    Now I have not read the KPMG report, but I have read a summary of it and to start with they were not asked to investigate fraud nor did the conclude that there was no fraud.

    They were asked to review company's methods of accounting for third party business and they key thing to take away from it is that Wirecard treated these transactions as an extension of their own business, which is highly unusual and distorts the accounts.

    On top of this the company actively tried to hinder the investigation, for example:
    When KPMG requested minutes of quarterly meetings between the German company and its third-party business partners, Wirecard wrote that such minutes were not taken in 2016 and 2017. However, on April 23, Wirecard’s accountant EY handed over the minutes Wirecard had said did not exist.

    So how you can conclude that they have "a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc" is beyond me, since the accounts are very likely a fabrication.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭RedRochey


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    I own PayPal. Also own Square and StoneCo. I love the simplicity of taking a cut from transactions. Money is dead, I have the same fiver in my wallet for 3 months now.

    I reckon it continues to innovate and grow faster that Mastercard/Visa.

    Is there an ETF built for this "war on cash" theme?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,500 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Bob24 wrote: »

    Well there is a shocker... not

    Eventually all the fancy accounting washes out and it comes down to a simple matter of debits and credits. If you pump third Party business through the P&L, you are going to have to come up with a corresponding debit somewhere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,426 ✭✭✭positron


    So what happens now? Couple of bigwigs gets jail time, and wouldn't someone / some fund come up with the money for a chunk of the business, and then everything back to normal.. eventually?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,500 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    positron wrote: »
    So what happens now? Couple of bigwigs gets jail time, and wouldn't someone / some fund come up with the money for a chunk of the business, and then everything back to normal.. eventually?

    Trying to find someone to plug a hole in a business where you have no idea what is real and what is not is a very big ask. If you were interested in acquiring any of the business you'd be better of to let it go and buy it of the liquidator, that way you'd have a better understand of what is there and avoid being on the hook for any undisclosed liabilities.

    We will have to wait and see what happens on Friday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    Added more FMCI on today's dip. There is another SPAC that looks interesting GRAF but they're only quoted on DeGiro in Frankfurt which puts me off a bit.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    same, I'll set a buy order in the 60's and see what happens, no harm in chancing it that low

    had another quick scalp on NBRV today, set a buy order at 62c and it picked it up around midday, just sold off at 76c

    :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,456 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Bob Harris wrote: »
    Added more FMCI on today's dip. There is another SPAC that looks interesting GRAF but they're only quoted on DeGiro in Frankfurt which puts me off a bit.

    Yeah after my successes with VTIQ (Nikola) and FMCI (Impossible Foods), I've opened some speculative positions on some other SPAC's.
    OPES (Burger chain), sounds like I missed the big gains.
    GPAQ - NFL Theme Park
    FEAC - unknown target, but the company are mainly involved with sport-based listings, so there's a silly rumour that it'll UFC

    They're small positions, not "investing" by any definition, somewhat more akin to lottery than anything, but seem to be a few quick gains in them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭Bob Harris


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Yeah after my successes with VTIQ (Nikola) and FMCI (Impossible Foods), I've opened some speculative positions on some other SPAC's.
    OPES (Burger chain), sounds like I missed the big gains.
    GPAQ - NFL Theme Park
    FEAC - unknown target, but the company are mainly involved with sport-based listings, so there's a silly rumour that it'll UFC

    They're small positions, not "investing" by any definition, somewhat more akin to lottery than anything, but seem to be a few quick gains in them.

    I was reading up on OPES and GPAQ - I wouldn't be too convinced by either. OPES has about 100 burger joints - I'm sure they'll grow this but they are just burger joints and I can't really see a USP. The other one, the NFL hall of fame theme park...800m investment..gonna need a lot of visitors to make it viable but they do like their NFL over there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    had another quick scalp on NBRV today, set a buy order at 62c and it picked it up around midday, just sold off at 76c

    :D

    Gem of a stock fair play. Think I'm done with it now.

    I have two long term biotech stock picks.

    $Anvs - Low cap, low volume, NYSE listed biotech approaching Parkinson's and Alzheimers differently to any other company so far. Genuinely interesting stuff.

    Anyway animal studies have been positive so far and there's a number of catalysts over the next few months . Interim results of phase 2b trials on Alzheimers by year end, and dual results for Parkinson's and Alzheimers in Quarter 1 next year.

    Enough cash to get them to next year so no dilutions. Warrants at 6 dollars.

    $MIST - Cash laden biotech that has had a difficult year with a drug trial failing to meet its primary endpoint. Share price has taken quite the tumble but cash is always king for me and they're continuing with trialling for variations of the treatment. I'd be happy to take a gamble on it.

    Again these are relatively long term holds compared to what I usually alert on here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,220 ✭✭✭✭Lex Luthor


    Kilboor wrote: »
    Gem of a stock fair play. Think I'm done with it now.

    I have two long term biotech stock picks.

    $Anvs - Low cap, low volume, NYSE listed biotech approaching Parkinson's and Alzheimers differently to any other company so far. Genuinely interesting stuff.

    Anyway animal studies have been positive so far and there's a number of catalysts over the next few months . Interim results of phase 2b trials on Alzheimers by year end, and dual results for Parkinson's and Alzheimers in Quarter 1 next year.

    Enough cash to get them to next year so no dilutions. Warrants at 6 dollars.

    $MIST - Cash laden biotech that has had a difficult year with a drug trial failing to meet its primary endpoint. Share price has taken quite the tumble but cash is always king for me and they're continuing with trialling for variations of the treatment. I'd be happy to take a gamble on it.

    Again these are relatively long term holds compared to what I usually alert on here
    ya same here, I've had 3 goes at it and all worked out, time to stop being greedy and move on

    must have a look at those 2 you mentioned


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,994 ✭✭✭Taylor365


    Taylor365 wrote: »
    Took some profits on NDVA and AMD @ 245 and 45 respectively.

    Made a list of 26 companies and a price I'll jump in at.

    Going to review balance sheets and see how leveraged they are and decide whats a gamble and what will easily survive.
    Pfff what a bum. This guy missed out on some serious gains! :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭ExMachina1000


    Are you talking about regular stocks or cfds


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭in2dark


    Lex Luthor wrote: »
    had another quick scalp on NBRV today, set a buy order at 62c and it picked it up around midday, just sold off at 76c

    :D


    today's low is 66cents how did you buy it at 62?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    in2dark wrote: »
    today's low is 66cents how did you buy it at 62?

    All depends on the chart you're looking at, if you look at a candles model in 5 minute ticks it should show the lowest low.

    No idea what it was myself.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 361 ✭✭in2dark


    Kilboor wrote: »
    All depends on the chart you're looking at, if you look at a candles model in 5 minute ticks it should show the lowest low.

    No idea what it was myself.


    No need for charts:

    google:
    Open0.68
    High0.82
    Low0.66
    Mkt cap111.48M

    and on yahoo:
    Day's Range 0.6600 - 0.8200


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    Any hot takes on Lufthansa? It looks like the current bailout proposals are in real danger of collapsing. I can't see the German government letting it go to the wall, will they improve the bailout conditions??? which might see a good jump is share price.


  • Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭hottipper


    Kilboor wrote: »
    Kirkland's was my next go to but it's after increasing 75% after hours on store re opening news.

    Still incredibly undervalued in my opinion even at those prices.

    Solid tip kilboor out of the trade now thanks again


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    hottipper wrote: »
    Solid tip kilboor out of the trade now thanks again

    You're welcome! :cool:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,495 ✭✭✭omerin


    Ktov up almost 35% today and 10% in after hours


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,999 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Thargor wrote: »
    Anyone taking a punt on Wirecard? Id say its easy money tbh.
    iAcesHigh wrote: »
    easy money to lose money? It's pure gamble as it can obv jump up like Hertz did, but if fraud is proven it's going straight down to 0...
    See? Easy money just as I predicted, you just had to short it as it dropped another 40-50% as I implied in my post :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭bfa1509


    Too many day traders in this thread! :)

    This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

    Any other picks for us slow coaches?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Kilboor


    bfa1509 wrote: »
    Too many day traders in this thread! :)

    This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

    Any other picks for us slow coaches?

    JPMorgan
    Coca-Cola and/or Pepsi


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    bfa1509 wrote: »
    Too many day traders in this thread! :)

    This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

    Any other picks for us slow coaches?

    Any reason it has to be US based?

    If the main criteria is to pick a super safe stock, what comes to my mind is Nestlé.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭bfa1509


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Any reason it has to be US based?

    If the main criteria is to pick a super safe stock, what comes to my mind is Nestlé.
    No reason other than these stocks having better worldwide growth potential/market reach.

    Probably would be a better idea sticking to European/London stocks at the moment until the dollar weakens a bit more (potentially).


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,500 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    bfa1509 wrote: »
    Too many day traders in this thread! :)

    This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

    Any other picks for us slow coaches?

    Maybe do some homework on that... The gap opening up between the SP500 and the SP600, would suggest that all is not as it seems


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