Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

19-06-2020 11:52AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Absolutely no surprise, there were plenty of posters here that said they have the worst cough and some sort of viral infection they've had around January and Feb, said posters were just dismissed by some on here saying no you didn't have it etc etc when now it looks like yes quite possibly they had it.

At the end of January I had an aggressive cough that lasted about 3 weeks and extremely tired, would come in from work and go to bed at like 7pm. Nothing else, tiredness went after a week or so, the cough was a good 3 weeks.

Middle of feb my father got a very bad cough, chills, headache, tiredness. Lasted about 2 weeks, the cough took about 3 weeks to clear. No test as he hadn't been to Italy but works in a tourism cultural site so could have easily picked something up there. At the same time as he was sick, the brother had the same symptoms as myself, cleared after 2 weeks.

I find it very hard to beleive that we all just had "a dose" given what we know now.

We're all going to book into TMB for the anti body test next week

I believe there was a poster here who was pretty insistent they had had the virus, went to TMB and tested negative for antibodies

Plumbthedepths · 19-06-2020 11:54AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how Houlihan et al can use international figures when congratulating himself about how many tests we did... yet international comparisons are somehow not useful or valid when comparing our terrible case rates or death rates ?

Ohh no... those figures are 'apples and pears', ya know !

:rolleyes:

Simple words blame and accountability.

19-06-2020 12:08PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how Houlihan et al can use international figures when congratulating himself about how many tests we did... yet international comparisons are somehow not useful or valid when comparing our terrible case rates or death rates ?

Ohh no... those figures are 'apples and pears', ya know !

:rolleyes:

The number of tests is an objective figure - you either did the test or didn't. When some places are not reporting Care home deaths or not testing those who died with symptoms, the death figure are much more subjective.

Rate of positive may be a better approach, we have 25k positives from 380k tests, Sweden have 56k positives from 380k tests, Austria have 17k positives from 550k tests. What's the message - Test Test Test

stephenjmcd · 19-06-2020 12:10PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I believe there was a poster here who was pretty insistent they had had the virus, went to TMB and tested negative for antibodies

Its €80 and tbh i think its worth it just to see the process and read the anti body report that gets sent back

ACitizenErased · 19-06-2020 12:22PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Simultaneous mutation in multiple places?

Italy was the first badly affected in Europe, I wouldn’t say it was simultaneous.

ACitizenErased · 19-06-2020 12:28PM

Aftermath of mass protests is becoming known. 17 days since the Amsterdam BLM protest. Number infected: 1. Shocker.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2337677-voorlopige-balans-een-dam-demonstrant-heeft-coronavirus.html

19-06-2020 12:32PM

Boggles wrote: »

I very much doubt it.

The reality is it probably takes more time to swirl and reach a "critical mass" than we thought.

Deaths and infection rates were overlooked because no one was keeping eye on it.

Either way it isn't good news.

How is that not good news?

An Ciarraioch · 19-06-2020 12:32PM

Spain after uncovering almost 1,200 extra Covid deaths, so concerns about their reporting in recent weeks may well be justified:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1273953749808152578

Martina1991 · 19-06-2020 12:36PM

stephenjmcd wrote:

Its â‚¬80 and tbh i think its worth it just to see the process and read the anti body report that gets sent back

It'll likely just say positive or negative with no numerical value.

There may also be a disclaimer saying a negative result doesn't rule out SARV-CoV-2 exposure.

ACitizenErased · 19-06-2020 12:39PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah will of course. There was someone else on the have you been tested thread yesterday that got it done and came back negative

I wonder is it possible for antibodies to be only temporary? Would explain low seroprevalence rates in other countries.

Boggles · 19-06-2020 12:44PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Italy was the first badly affected in Europe, I wouldn’t say it was simultaneous.

The region it hit has the oldest population Europe and one of the highest in the world.

It's not a coincidence that 3 hardest hit countries in Europe are among the 3 most visited countries in the world.

ACitizenErased · 19-06-2020 12:45PM

Boggles wrote: »

The region it hit has the oldest population Europe and one of the highest in the world.

It's not a coincidence that 3 hardest hit countries in Europe are among the 3 most visited countries in the world.

You know how viruses work right? Mutations happen every day. They mutate incredibly fast.

Boggles · 19-06-2020 12:51PM

AdamD wrote: »

How is that not good news?

Because the models are based on "flare ups" taking a few weeks, then been able to identify clusters and pockets and crush them.

If you look at what is happening in half a dozen states in particular in the US who opened up again 6-8 weeks ago, they have all flared up more or less this week.

So the idea that any warning system will be able to manage subsequent waves is in doubt.

What Username Guidelines · 19-06-2020 12:53PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I wonder is it possible for antibodies to be only temporary? Would explain low seroprevalence rates in other countries.

IgM antibodies are temporary, IgG should be longer term. There's also a theory that T-cells could fight it off, or antibodies from a previous coronavirus infection recently, neither of which would result in a positive covid-19 antibody test.

Martina1991 wrote: »

It'll likely just say positive or negative with no numerical value.

There may also be a disclaimer saying a negative result doesn't rule out SARV-CoV-2 exposure.

That's exactly what it said:

Anti-SARS CoV 2 Ig RESULT NEGATIVE

Please note: A negative test result does not rule out early infection with
SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, this test cannot be used to diagnose acute
infection. This assay does not distinguish between IgG, IgM and IgA if
present. Titre may decline and become negative over time. Not all
Interfering substances, endogenous or exogenous, have yet been determined,
interpretation caution is advised.
Manufacturer - Roche COBAS platform

In the example I saw before the test, it said it used Abbott, but my results say Roche.

the corpo · 19-06-2020 12:55PM

https://twitter.com/GeneKerrigan/status/1273961736031404033

Boggles · 19-06-2020 01:03PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You know how viruses work right? Mutations happen every day. They mutate incredibly fast.

Well no, the vast majority of viruses don't mutate every day and there is no evidence that Covid 19 has mutated into a more deadly strain, the opposite would be the most likely scenario, as they replicate they can become weaker in a certain outbreaka, there is only anecdotal evidence of this at the moment.

Of course viruses mutating into a less deadly strain is not always good news, if the likes of a Ebola does this then we would have real problems.

The most plausible reason Italy was first, was tourism numbers and demographics.

Assetbacked · 19-06-2020 01:29PM

the corpo wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GeneKerrigan/status/1273961736031404033

It needs to be more clear that a wave needing to be managed is a rise in hospital beds taken up versus the ability of that health system to manage those requiring treatment. A rise in cases means sweet FA.

With the Israeli rise in cases, it says it relates to schools being reopened so almost certainly that won't result in much of a risk to stretching the health service.

stephenjmcd · 19-06-2020 01:36PM

So some more information coming out as per independent regarding the phases and gatherings.

From 20th July, weddings of 100, funerals of 100.

From 29th June, indoor gatherings of 50 in an enclosed space. Gatherings of 200 outdoors.

From 20th July, gatherings of 100 in an enclosed space and 500 outdoors

caveat emptor · 19-06-2020 01:42PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

It needs to be more clear that a wave needing to be managed is a rise in hospital beds taken up versus the ability of that health system to manage those requiring treatment. A rise in cases means sweet FA.

With the Israeli rise in cases, it says it relates to schools being reopened so almost certainly that won't result in much of a risk to stretching the health service.

Yeah because kids in Israel all live on their own. They are extremely self sufficient. No risk to wider community. Here's an infomercial about their resilience. Kinder guardians.

Mwengwe · 19-06-2020 02:08PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Absolutely no surprise, there were plenty of posters here that said they have the worst cough and some sort of viral infection they've had around January and Feb, said posters were just dismissed by some on here saying no you didn't have it etc etc when now it looks like yes quite possibly they had it.

At the end of January I had an aggressive cough that lasted about 3 weeks and extremely tired, would come in from work and go to bed at like 7pm. Nothing else, tiredness went after a week or so, the cough was a good 3 weeks.

Middle of feb my father got a very bad cough, chills, headache, tiredness. Lasted about 2 weeks, the cough took about 3 weeks to clear. No test as he hadn't been to Italy but works in a tourism cultural site so could have easily picked something up there. At the same time as he was sick, the brother had the same symptoms as myself, cleared after 2 weeks.

I find it very hard to beleive that we all just had "a dose" given what we know now.

We're all going to book into TMB for the anti body test next week

I had a vicious cough but almost nothing else so I'm still not sure.

Mwengwe · 19-06-2020 02:09PM

Boggles wrote: »

I very much doubt it.

The reality is it probably takes more time to swirl and reach a "critical mass" than we thought.

Deaths and infection rates were overlooked because no one was keeping eye on it.

Either way it isn't good news.

It's not exactly bad news either

CalamariFritti · 19-06-2020 02:14PM

phater phagan wrote: »

I don't understand why so many people are not wearing face masks when they're shopping.
They must be watching too much fox news.
I wear one and have no problem with it. I take it off when I get back into my car.
It is a simple thing to do and it does stop the infections spreading.

I don't understand why people think that wearing masks in supermarkets makes any sort of sense. Because if it did why are the supermarket staff largely unaffected by COVID19?

CalamariFritti · 19-06-2020 02:16PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Walk into pub with face mask on.
Sit down, order food.
Wait for order to be brought to table.
Sanitize hands.
Take off mask and place into plastic bag.
Sanitize hands again.
Eat food/drink.
When finished, sanitize hands again and put on a clean face mask.

Need to go to the toilet? Sanitize hands and put on a clean face mask. Go back to your table and sanitize hands and take off mask and put into plastic bag.

Look how easy that process is. They can work if you want them to.

Sorry but you're clearly joking right? Who would go to a pub or restaurant if thats what it was going to be like? I think I'd rather poke myself in the eye with a sharp stick for entertainment.

Boggles · 19-06-2020 02:16PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

It's not exactly bad news either

Well, no it's pretty much all bad news and not just for Covid 19, it also doesn't bode well for any potential future outbreaks.

The idea that a global pandemic virus can swirl around for months undetected by some of the most technically advanced countries in the world is not a good omen.

Boggles · 19-06-2020 02:18PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Sorry but you're clearly joking right? Who would go to a pub or restaurant if thats what it was going to be like? I think I'd rather poke myself in the eye with a sharp stick for entertainment.

TBH, it's not going to be much different.

Book the table at 7 home by 9.

The only reason I ever agree to go for dinner is the copious amounts of alcohol I can have after it.

Mwengwe · 19-06-2020 02:29PM

Boggles wrote: »

Well, no it's pretty much all bad news and not just for Covid 19, it also doesn't bode well for any potential future outbreaks.

The idea that a global pandemic virus can swirl around for months undetected by some of the most technically advanced countries in the world is not a good omen.

I thought CoVid was widely regarded as a bit of a freak virus in terms of how infectious it is. We could well see a more lethal outbreak in future but the chances of it being as subtly infectious and undetectable as CoVid are slimmer.

What Username Guidelines · 19-06-2020 02:29PM

Boggles wrote: »

I very much doubt it.

The reality is it probably takes more time to swirl and reach a "critical mass" than we thought.

Deaths and infection rates were overlooked because no one was keeping eye on it.

Either way it isn't good news.

It could be good news. If it's swirling around in low levels in December/Jan and no one is even aware of the problem, it will build into a critical mass and overwhelm the hospital system. If that's happening again in July/August, that 'swirling' time is a benefit to give us time to notice it, test for it, etc, and ensure it doesn't build into a critical mass.

It's not easy and mistakes will be made, but if the 29th Feb was truly our first very first case in the country, that would be worse news as it builds far quicker than we can react without draconian measures (i.e. close everything)

Away With The Fairies · 19-06-2020 02:47PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Sorry but you're clearly joking right? Who would go to a pub or restaurant if thats what it was going to be like? I think I'd rather poke myself in the eye with a sharp stick for entertainment.

It's the new normal. You can walk into a pub or restaurant all you want but waiter or waitress are still people that can catch and pass this on. The more people they serve and work with, the bigger the risk. While I'm happy if people wants to catch this themselves, I'm not happy with the selfish behaviour of catching it and passing it on to others. It's selfish of people not to wear a mask. I just highlighted what someone should do when they go into a pub or restaurant. But good ole Ireland, come on in and spread your germs.

Jim_Hodge · 19-06-2020 02:53PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Walk into pub with face mask on.
Sit down, order food.
Wait for order to be brought to table.
Sanitize hands.
Take off mask and place into plastic bag.
Sanitize hands again.
Eat food/drink.
When finished, sanitize hands again and put on a clean face mask.

Need to go to the toilet? Sanitize hands and put on a clean face mask. Go back to your table and sanitize hands and take off mask and put into plastic bag.

Look how easy that process is. They can work if you want them to.

I think I'd just stay at home and have friends over rather than go through that rigmarole, to be honest. Coupled with a time limit, it would defeat the purpose of going out to enjoy socialising.

What you outline is proper process but it's just not worth it. How many masks and plastic bags would I need in my pockets when going out? We'll all end up carrying handbags for the masks, plastic bags, sanitisers etc.
And the chances of somebody else not adhering to protocols, when they gave a few drinks in them, would be too high.

Boggles · 19-06-2020 02:56PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It could be good news. If it's swirling around in low levels in December/Jan and no one is even aware of the problem, it will build into a critical mass and overwhelm the hospital system. If that's happening again in July/August, that 'swirling' time is a benefit to give us time to notice it, test for it, etc, and ensure it doesn't build into a critical mass.

It's not easy and mistakes will be made, but if the 29th Feb was truly our first very first case in the country, that would be worse news as it builds far quicker than we can react without draconian measures (i.e. close everything)

My point was it swirls undetected with vigilance, gets to critical mass and then surges as evidence by the half dozen states in the US experiencing this in the past 4-7 days.

My guess when we learn more about it, asymmetric spread will be a key player to how successful Covid 19 is/was as a virus.

Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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