Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:00PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I know there was 45 - but some from earlier in week.

So was about 23 - that is 3 times the low level rate .

3 times the amount is a big jump by any measure ?

The jumps are due to delays in reporting the cases. Here’s an idea get the total cases for last week and compare them to this week. If you’re capable of course.

TaurenDruid · 14-06-2020 08:01PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

How in the gods name can 3000 gather and disregard social distancing for 3 + hours? 5 + hours? and small barber shop packed with PPE cant reopen until (if lucky) another 2 weeks? If unlucky 6 weeks. This is insanity live. :mad::mad::mad:

Where did this happen? Cos the videos I've seen of BLM, people looked well spread out. Not so much in the photos, but perspective is much more difficult to judge there. Presumably most of the groups of 2, 3, and 4 people there were from the same household, too.

Likewise with the photos of thousands of people on beaches. Most of the individual groups were two metres apart. Even without covid, I'd find it really weird if I was on the beach and another group pitched up within 6 feet of mine. I'd be more worried about the size of those groups, though, cos households of a dozen people aren't very common.

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:07PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

The jumps are due to delays in reporting the cases. Here’s an idea get the total cases for last week and compare them to this week. If you’re capable of course.

Why are you so arsey.

day on day analysis is how we measured growth at start - growth is a function of any time basis you pick - you want me to pick a week.

It went up 300 % in a day - i accounted and the delay was accounted for in reporting.

To be honest - if you can't understand that 24 is 3 times 8 - you are the one who would want to consider their capability.

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:10PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Why are you so arsey.

day on day analysis is how we measured growth at start - growth is a function of any time basis you pick - you want me to pick a week.

It went up 300 % in a day - i accounted and the delay was accounted for in reporting.

To be honest - if you can't understand that 24 is 3 times 8 - you are the one who would want to consider their capability.

So are you implying the cases are increasing?

Are you able to divide also? 24 divided by 3 is 8, 8 cases tonight.

Assetbacked · 14-06-2020 08:11PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Why are you so arsey.

day on day analysis is how we measured growth at start - growth is a function of any time basis you pick - you want me to pick a week.

It went up 300 % in a day - i accounted and the delay was accounted for in reporting.

To be honest - if you can't understand that 24 is 3 times 8 - you are the one who would want to consider their capability.

Incredible mental gymnastics here to fear monger.

mloc123 · 14-06-2020 08:13PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Why are you so arsey.

day on day analysis is how we measured growth at start - growth is a function of any time basis you pick - you want me to pick a week.

It went up 300 % in a day - i accounted and the delay was accounted for in reporting.

To be honest - if you can't understand that 24 is 3 times 8 - you are the one who would want to consider their capability.

Cases have tripled overnight... THE SECOND WAVE IS HERE!!!

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:13PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

So are you implying the cases are increasing?

I'll watch trend - yesterday was a very very bad day in trend.

hopefully a blip / outlier.

If we have another day like yesterday again this week - I'd be concerned.

Ginger n Lemon · 14-06-2020 08:14PM

TaurenDruid wrote: »

Where did this happen? Cos the videos I've seen of BLM, people looked well spread out. Not so much in the photos, but perspective is much more difficult to judge there. Presumably most of the groups of 2, 3, and 4 people there were from the same household, too.

Likewise with the photos of thousands of people on beaches. Most of the individual groups were two metres apart. Even without covid, I'd find it really weird if I was on the beach and another group pitched up within 6 feet of mine. I'd be more worried about the size of those groups, though, cos households of a dozen people aren't very common.

Photos in this link

https://www.irishpost.com/news/hundreds-take-to-the-streets-of-dublin-in-black-lives-matter-protest-after-death-of-george-floyd-185991

2nd tweet from the top. 0 social distancing

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:14PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Incredible mental gymnastics here to fear monger.

I'm watching data very closely - the data is the truth

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:15PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I'll watch trend - yesterday was a very very bad day in trend.

hopefully a blip / outlier.

If we have another day like yesterday again this week - I'd be concerned.

You clearly don’t understand how it works.

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:18PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

You clearly don’t understand how it works.

what numbers ?

If you seen another day with > 20 this week would you think that is a downward trend.

TaurenDruid · 14-06-2020 08:19PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Photos in this link

https://www.irishpost.com/news/hundreds-take-to-the-streets-of-dublin-in-black-lives-matter-protest-after-death-of-george-floyd-185991

2nd tweet from the top. 0 social distancing

Most groups a few feet from each other. And having marched in the past, I know you don't end up spending more than a few minutes in proximity to anyone else. Certainly less than 15. Other tweets - lots of masks in evidence, at least.

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:22PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

what numbers ?

If you seen another day with > 20 this week would you think that is a downward trend.

What was tonight’s figure?

You can’t go by one days figures. You have to calculate it over a number of days to get the trend. Tomorrow could be 29 and the next day could be 18.

The last 6 day trend was 104 cases. The same 6 days last week was 139 cases.

ShyMets · 14-06-2020 08:23PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I'll watch trend - yesterday was a very very bad day in trend.

hopefully a blip / outlier.

If we have another day like yesterday again this week - I'd be concerned.

22 of those cases were delayed reporting which should have been included in the Thursday & Friday figures.

So where is the outlier

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:24PM

ShyMets wrote: »

22 of those cases were delayed reporting which should have been included in the Thursday & Friday figures.

So where is the outlier

There was 45

45 - 22 = ?

8 * 3 = 24

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:27PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

What was tonight’s figure?

You can’t go by one days figures. You have to calculate it over a number of days to get the trend. Tomorrow could be 29 and the next day could be 18.

The last 6 day trend was 104 cases. The same 6 days last week was 139 cases.

I don't think it is inconceivable that figure will go up as relaxations are applied.

Has happened in some other countries.

Ginger n Lemon · 14-06-2020 08:27PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

There was 45

45 - 22 = ?

8 * 3 = 24

I have a bad feeling any Danish, Czech, German, French, Spanish, Italian, Dutch, Norwegian individual reading this thread must be rolling on the floor laughing at us slow Irish.

We wont come out of our homes until Simon Harris tweets its okay to do so. As of today, we are not there yet.

:rolleyes:

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:29PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I have a bad feeling any Danish, Czech, German, French, Spanish, Italian, Dutch, Norwegian individual reading this thread must be rolling on the floor laughing at us slow Irish.

We wont come out of our homes until Simon Harris tweets its okay to do so. As of today, we are not there yet.

:rolleyes:

I wonder if Simon will still be health minister seeing that the Greens are agreeing to being FG/FF tea boys/ bus boys.

ShyMets · 14-06-2020 08:31PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

There was 45

45 - 22 = ?

8 * 3 = 24

Actually there was 46 cases. I'm baffled by your response. We know that 22 of the 46 cases should have been reported on Thursday & Friday.

Therefore Saturday's figure was artificially inflated. The tend is still downwards

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:32PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I have a bad feeling any Danish, Czech, German, French, Spanish, Italian, Dutch, Norwegian individual reading this thread must be rolling on the floor laughing at us slow Irish.

We wont come out of our homes until Simon Harris tweets its okay to do so. As of today, we are not there yet.

:rolleyes:

Most of them places have had cases go up over the last while. Say from 12 to then 30/40 - or 100 to 300/400

I think people need to realize - even low number growing is a problem.

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:33PM

ShyMets wrote: »

Actually there was 46 cases. I'm baffled by your response. We know that 22 of the 46 cases should have been reported on Thursday & Friday.

Therefore Saturday's figure was artificially inflated. The tend is still downwards

OK sorry - so 46 - 22 = 24.

With our current low numbers 24 - is very large - 300 %

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:36PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

OK sorry - so 46 - 22 = 24.

With our current low numbers 24 - is very large - 300 %

Ok if you want to talk about numbers your fixated number of 24 just got it’s ass handed to it and got divided by
3 today.

_Kaiser_ · 14-06-2020 08:38PM

People need to stop obsessing over daily numbers and the fear that the "dreaded second wave!" :rolleyes: is upon us.

There will be increases and drops as the country reopens and people move about. This is normal, expected, and no cause for alarm. If we get to a point where there's hundreds of new cases per week and the hospitals start getting stretched, then it's time to get concerned again.

But seriously.. some people need to take a step back, stop reading every RTE/IT alert on CV-19 and start living their lives again. That's exactly what I've been at for weeks now and I'm not sick, don't know anyone who's sick, and everyone is getting on fine.

I said this 2 months ago too, but the hysteria and paranoia this blanket coverage and drawn-out reopening has caused in some is as much as a concern as any threat from this virus at this point.

setanta1984 · 14-06-2020 08:41PM

Are people really expecting this to go to 0 or something?

Perspective has been completely lost. Less than 30 cases a day all week and there is a "big jump" in there?
What is the fixation on this when the numbers are so tiny? Is the insinuation that this means we shouldn't be easing restrictions or something?

ShyMets · 14-06-2020 08:41PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

OK sorry - so 46 - 22 = 24.

With our current low numbers 24 - is very large - 300 %

No its not. On Thursday we had 7 reported cases. On Friday we had 12. Now we know 22 additional cases should have being recorded over these days. If we half the 22 our figures are now:

18 for Thursday and 23 for Friday. That is not a 300% increase

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 08:42PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Ok if you want to talk about numbers your fixated number of 24 just got it’s ass handed to it and got divided by
3 today.

I'm delighted.

But - if you are into data - you see a 300 % rise , you wait and see - not be fooled assuming that past trend can be extrapolated.

You don't know how this thing works. If people go back to how we were - it will grow again.

Watch this space.

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 08:52PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

I'm delighted.

But - if you are into data - you see a 300 % rise , you wait and see - not be fooled assuming that past trend can be extrapolated.

You don't know how this thing works. If people go back to how we were - it will grow again.

Watch this space.

You saw a 300% rise on one number. You are clueless unfortunately.

Penfailed · 14-06-2020 09:01PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

You saw a 300% rise on one number. You are clueless unfortunately.

The 300% rise is a fact. It may be meaningless...but it's a fact. Calling someone clueless is rather unfair under the circumstances.

Micky 32 · 14-06-2020 09:03PM

Penfailed wrote: »

The 300% rise is a fact. It may be meaningless...but it's a fact. Calling someone clueless is rather unfair under the circumstances.

The 300% difference in numbers is nothing to do with actual increased cases, i would have thought at least you might be smart enough to realise that.

Our cases are dropping that is a fact also. What’s the point of mentioning a fact if it’s meaningless?

FixdePitchmark · 14-06-2020 09:07PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

The 300% difference in numbers is nothing to do with actual increased cases, i would have thought at least you might be smart enough to realise that.

Our cases are dropping that is a fact also. What’s the point of mentioning a fact if it’s meaningless?

How on earth is a confirmed number meaningless - daft comment.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings