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Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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Comments

  • #3332
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Odd how it’s 57% in the population and just 30% of healthcare workers. Also, Bergamo is considered one of the very hard hit areas with 13,000 cases in a population 1.1 million, which isn’t far off Dublin’s cases and population. They must have missed so many cases - They’re also still seeing 30-40 cases per day and 5,400 people have died there, six times more than normal in the time frame, with approx 4,500 assumed to be from coronavirus.

    Stats in Bergamo are insane, 6,600 excess deaths by end of April in a province with a population 25% smaller than Dublin, doesn't even include the hundreds more deaths in May and June. Imagine that many people dying in Dublin in two months? Must have been heart breaking, I would imagine almost everyone from Bergamo has lost somebody they know personally very recently, absolutely crazy numbers

    https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/240401#Decessianni20152020-0


  • #3333
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,097 ✭✭✭Polar101


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    57% of tested population in Bergamo, Italy had antibodies.

    https://www.corriere.it/salute/20_giugno_08/test-sierologici-bergamo-positivo-57percento-pazienti-30b159ec-a9a6-11ea-b9d7-2bd646fda8c5.shtml

    Not able to read the link, but that sounds like they must be close to "herd immunity" now. Will be interesting to see if they will have a second wave in Bergamo (probably not?).


  • #3334
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    DevilsHaircut wrote: »
    Please come back Kermit (at opportune moments, given the trajectory of this thread) to defend the rational posters from the onslaught of 'plumbers'.

    You were bullied out.

    Rational?
    You really don't like it when others don't share your opinion. As for bullying, there is a report function .


  • #3335
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Not able to read the link, but that sounds like they must be close to "herd immunity" now. Will be interesting to see if they will have a second wave in Bergamo (probably not?).

    There may be resurgence but wave suggests sustained transmission/exponential growth, would not be possible with nearly 60% presumably being immune


  • #3336
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,111 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Not able to read the link, but that sounds like they must be close to "herd immunity" now. Will be interesting to see if they will have a second wave in Bergamo (probably not?).

    I wouldn't trust any stats relating to antibodies. Results across Europe are absolutely all over the place and can even vary hugely from town to town, never mind country to country.

    I've a feeling this immunity thing will become a white elephant and will never play any part in ending the pandemic.


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  • #3337
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Strazdas wrote: »
    I wouldn't trust any stats relating to antibodies. Results across Europe are absolutely all over the place and can even vary hugely from town to town, never mind country to country.

    I've a feeling this immunity thing will become a white elephant and will never play any part in ending the pandemic.

    But maybe the level of infection just does in actual fact drastically differs from town to town?


  • #3338
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,111 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    But maybe the level of infection just does in actual fact drastically differs from town to town?

    There seems to be crazy results coming in. At one point we were supposedly hearing that more than half the population of Iceland has Coronavirus - from other countries it is supposed to be 5% or much lower.

    I don't trust any of these figures and nor do I buy the idea of many millions or even tens of millions of people having Covid in Europe and not being aware of it. There are a lot of red flags with this antibody testing and people should be extremely cautious.


  • #3339
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1270059107253465096?s=20


  • #3340
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1269758709665759233


  • #3341
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,059 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Apologies if this is a repost but remember when Paddy Cosgrove was a big annoying noise on Twitter and the reports of dead nurses in March?

    https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1269968720681713664


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  • #3342
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1270059107253465096?s=20

    Interesting chart. Definite evidence of the mythical second wave in Iran, Lebanon and ripples suggesting a potential second wave in Albania and Uzbekistan


  • #3343
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The puzzle of an apparently higher predisposition of BAME backgrounds to COVID-19 continues, this time in relation to pregnant women.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/56-56-per-cent-of-pregnant-women-with-covid-19-are-from-bame-backgrounds/


  • #3344
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Interesting chart. Definite evidence of the mythical second wave in Iran, Lebanon and ripples suggesting a potential second wave in Albania and Uzbekistan
    Iran kept closing and reopening things and Uzbekistan is fond of making things up.


  • #3345
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,330 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    There may be resurgence but wave suggests sustained transmission/exponential growth, would not be possible with nearly 60% presumably being immune

    Have we scientific evidence to show there is:
    A) immunity from re infection, ie it’s impossible
    B) If there is proof, how long does immunity last? Can only be 6 months so far.


  • #3346
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Iran kept closing and reopening things and Uzbekistan is fond of making things up.

    I think a lot of those countries with hints of a resurgence reinforce the value of having waited until we got to a very low level of cases to re-open. Those who jumped the gun may get burned


  • #3347
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    There may be resurgence but wave suggests sustained transmission/exponential growth, would not be possible with nearly 60% presumably being immune
    Is there any actual research on that, apart from people guessing that number to be true? No serological results have numbers anywhere near that.


  • #3348
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523

    They mention about 5 times that it's still "just the beginning" ... I swear this guy was **** himself silly as he was writing this.
    Even if it lasts all of 2020/21, we are almost 1/4 of the way through so, so it's not nearly over but we are way past the "beginning".

    Doom and gloom, BBC have been scaremongering from the start, I guess they want to inject new pessimism after their optimism over the BLM riots.


  • #3349
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Is there any actual research on that, apart from people guessing that number to be true? No serological results have numbers anywhere near that.

    This comes from a study the identified 57% of the population of the city of Bergamo, the worst impacted city in Europe, have antibodies. The study also appears not to have been random, prioritising testing towards the worst areas of the city, and taking in a lot of people who had already self isolated on suspicion of having the virus, but were never tested at the time as the system was overwhelmed


  • #3350
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,202 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Stats in Bergamo are insane, 6,600 excess deaths by end of April in a province with a population 25% smaller than Dublin, doesn't even include the hundreds more deaths in May and June. Imagine that many people dying in Dublin in two months? Must have been heart breaking, I would imagine almost everyone from Bergamo has lost somebody they know personally very recently, absolutely crazy numbers
    This is what we will remember from Bergamo in years to come.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Os1TJHJ_ijc


  • #3351
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/08/satellite-images-packed-wuhan-hospitals-suggest-coronavirus/

    Satelite imagery points to packed hospitals in Wuhan in October ...


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  • #3352
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,586 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/08/satellite-images-packed-wuhan-hospitals-suggest-coronavirus/

    Satelite imagery points to packed hospitals in Wuhan in October ...

    A comparison between cars parked in October 2018 compared to October 2019?
    Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University had 506 cars parked one day in October 2018 but 640 cars parked one day in October 2019.

    Wow, as flimsy goes. "One day, One Day"

    I think a lot of places have been handed out grants during this and they need to justify spending them in some way.


  • #3353
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,628 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    I see that RTE reporting that the virus may have been spreading in China as far back as August.


  • #3354
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    I see that RTE reporting that the virus may have been spreading in China as far back as August.

    Also based on car park imagery over two separate days - but the search history part is interesting.
    The novel coronavirus may have been spreading in China as early as August 2019, according to Harvard Medical School research based on satellite images of hospital travel patterns and search engine data.

    Google trends is also interesting for some of the varying symptoms worldwide:
    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=cant%20taste
    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=cant%20smell
    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=red%20toes


  • #3355
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,202 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    I see that RTE reporting that the virus may have been spreading in China as far back as August.
    This study is tenuous at best. There was a difficult flu season in Ireland this year I understand, and that would have been replicated elsewhere in the world. A lot of people also were affected by a respiratory illness late last year, myself included. I've seen some people speculating that was Covid, but the ones I've heard of who got tested came back negative, so probably something else.

    I've read some interesting speculation that Covid may have been around a bit longer than we think, mutated to become more adapted to humans in early November, and Wuhan was not where it started but the first super-spreading event. We may even be in the "second wave" :) Pure speculation, but interesting to think about.


  • #3356
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This thread is the true measure of the progress of the virus, No posts in over 45 minutes. Who could have imagined such a thing in the depths of March. I think NPHET should vary restrictions in line with average post counts in the Covid forum.


  • #3357
    snowgal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,867 ✭✭✭snowgal


    hmmm wrote: »
    I've read some interesting speculation that Covid may have been around a bit longer than we think, mutated to become more adapted to humans in early November, and Wuhan was not where it started but the first super-spreading event. We may even be in the "second wave" :) Pure speculation, but interesting to think about.

    yes I think this was discussed many weeks ago actually, a very good chance this is the second wave we're facing......so now we've to worry about the third wave?!!


  • #3358
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    Deleted User wrote: »
    This thread is the true measure of the progress of the virus, No posts in over 45 minutes. Who could have imagined such a thing in the depths of March. I think NPHET should vary restrictions in line with average post counts in the Covid forum.

    Will be a second wave in the thread.


  • #3359
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    Feel sorry for the kids that would have been flying off to the states on a J1 now ... I remember 20 years ago I went to San Fran !!!

    good times...


  • #3360
    TheDriver
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,853 ✭✭✭✭TheDriver


    hmmm wrote: »
    This study is tenuous at best. There was a difficult flu season in Ireland this year I understand, and that would have been replicated elsewhere in the world. A lot of people also were affected by a respiratory illness late last year, myself included. I've seen some people speculating that was Covid, but the ones I've heard of who got tested came back negative, so probably something else.

    I've read some interesting speculation that Covid may have been around a bit longer than we think, mutated to become more adapted to humans in early November, and Wuhan was not where it started but the first super-spreading event. We may even be in the "second wave" :) Pure speculation, but interesting to think about.

    The suggestion that diarrhea internet seaches went up, sounds like a New Years Day here.


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  • #3361
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,202 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Hector Savage wrote: »
    Feel sorry for the kids that would have been flying off to the states on a J1 now ... I remember 20 years ago I went to San Fran !!!
    And they have no restaurant/bar work here to make up for it. Difficult times. Hopefully for business the general suppression of the virus (even with social distancing) will give them a bit more confidence to go-ahead with hiring apprentices, junior staff etc.


This discussion has been closed.
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