Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
If we do not hit our goal we will be forced to close the site.

Current status: https://keepboardsalive.com/

Annual subs are best for most impact. If you are still undecided on going Ad Free - you can also donate using the Paypal Donate option. All contribution helps. Thank you.

Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

1…108109111113114…333

Comments

  • #3302
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Yup, it's about probability. Everything about transmission is a probability question, and you have make a decision involving risk.

    15 mins and 2M was chosen because the probability of infection increases with time and decreases with distance. You set an acceptable risk and then decide on what numbers are the best practical guidance.

    That decision is open to judgement though.

    It is, but the only way to be certain is put everyone in a bubble so you pick something that will give you haig confidence and people may still adhere to 90% of the time. As the risk lowers we can revisit. I think the numbers are 90% prevented at 2 meters, 70 at 1, which with a low number of cases and no community transmission should be acceptable. If a rise was to begin 2 meters can re reinstated with relive ease and nip it in the bud again as there will already be some control and time to react


  • #3303
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It is, but the only way to be certain is put everyone in a bubble so you pick something that will give you haig confidence and people may still adhere to 90% of the time. As the risk lowers we can revisit. I think the numbers are 90% prevented at 2 meters, 70 at 1, which with a low number of cases and no community transmission should be acceptable. If a rise was to begin 2 meters can re reinstated with relive ease and nip it in the bud again as there will already be some control and time to react

    Yeah exactly. You choose an acceptable level of risk in transmission and follow the numbers. Then it's a judgement call.

    I think the recommended measures taken so far are the right call.


  • #3304
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,500 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    HSE Operations report out

    As of 18:30 34 confirmed cases in ICU and 19 on ventilators, no change from yesterday.

    As of 8pm, 115 confirmed cases in acute hospitals down from 122 last night

    Quite stable numbers again tonight with a steady reduction of numbers continuing


  • #3305
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,317 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I would imagine any indoor gathering would need distancing. Maybe more than 2M if it's a seated area for a long period of time?

    I was talking about an outdoor protest march.


  • #3306
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,801 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    57% of tested population in Bergamo, Italy had antibodies.

    https://www.corriere.it/salute/20_giugno_08/test-sierologici-bergamo-positivo-57percento-pazienti-30b159ec-a9a6-11ea-b9d7-2bd646fda8c5.shtml


  • Advertisement
  • #3307
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    57% of tested population in Bergamo, Italy had antibodies.

    https://www.corriere.it/salute/20_giugno_08/test-sierologici-bergamo-positivo-57percento-pazienti-30b159ec-a9a6-11ea-b9d7-2bd646fda8c5.shtml

    Odd how it’s 57% in the population and just 30% of healthcare workers. Also, Bergamo is considered one of the very hard hit areas with 13,000 cases in a population 1.1 million, which isn’t far off Dublin’s cases and population. They must have missed so many cases - They’re also still seeing 30-40 cases per day and 5,400 people have died there, six times more than normal in the time frame, with approx 4,500 assumed to be from coronavirus.


  • #3308
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,255 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    The Asymptomatic story is on CNN now
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/
    Maria Van Kerkhove (Technical Lead WHO) wrote:
    From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual," Van Kerkhove said on Monday.
    "We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing. They're following asymptomatic cases, they're following contacts and they're not finding secondary transmission onward. It is very rare -- and much of that is not published in the literature," she said. "We are constantly looking at this data and we're trying to get more information from countries to truly answer this question. It still appears to be rare that an asymptomatic individual actually transmits onward."


  • #3309
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,801 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Odd how it’s 57% in the population and just 30% of healthcare workers. Also, Bergamo is considered one of the very hard hit areas with 13,000 cases in a population 1.1 million, which isn’t far off Dublin’s cases and population. They must have missed so many cases - They’re also still seeing 30-40 cases per day and 5,400 people have died there, six times more than normal in the time frame, with approx 4,500 assumed to be from coronavirus.
    As far as I know Italy only ever tested people who presented at hospitals at the beginning. Many many many went uncounted.


  • #3310
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Steve F wrote: »
    The 15 minute threshold is nonsense.Can't understand why people believe it
    Covid19 is primarily spread from person to person via droplets in their saliva when they talk,sneeze,cough.
    It doesn't take 15 mins for the droplets to travel from one person to another.Its simply not true you have to be with someone for more 15mins for you to be at risk

    it's a risk thing. you are less likely to get it from someone in 1 minute than 15 minutes (more chance of droplets transmission). a time limit of contact is a sensible control measure.


  • #3311
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,500 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    normanoffside wrote: »
    The Asymptomatic story is on CNN now
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/

    Will be interesting to follow this story and any associated evidence as it was believed at first that this was the case, then WHO said it wasn't and now saying it is


  • Advertisement
  • #3312
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,338 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Will be interesting to follow this story and any associated evidence as it was believed at first that this was the case, then WHO said it wasn't and now saying it is

    WHO have changed their story with every new report, sometimes within days changing their mind - really are a useless entity that have been totally shown up by this virus


  • #3313
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    normanoffside wrote: »
    WHO says that it is 'very rare' for Asymptomatic carrier to pass on Covid 19

    https://www.axios.com/who-coronavirus-asymptomatic-patients-08d84e31-1846-44d8-8fe1-2343ff850764.html
    Feckin flip-flop every day.


  • #3314
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,500 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    fritzelly wrote: »
    WHO have changed their story with every news report, sometimes within days changing their mind - really are a useless entity that have been totally shown up by this virus

    That's what I'm saying, it'll be interesting to see how this develops. We'll soon see if there's much reaction to their comments and or proof from doctors on the front line across Europe to backup or disprove the theory


  • #3315
    DevilsHaircut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    So the latest from the WHO is that asymptomatic transmission is rare. At this stage I think its safe to disregard anything they say as they inevitably backtrack on it a few weeks later!


    https://apnews.com/5a983189412c8383c74d1425719975c7

    How are things in Las Vegas?


  • #3316
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    So how are Italy, Spain and the rest of Europe getting on? (I'm going to ignore my own country's disaster in the UK). I seem to have gathered more info from Boards the past few months than any "proper" news site - journalism really poor in a once in a lifetime pandemic.


  • #3317
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    I note the USA has overtaken us on deaths per million now. 342 v 341


  • #3318
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,105 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Will be interesting to follow this story and any associated evidence as it was believed at first that this was the case, then WHO said it wasn't and now saying it is

    I wouldn't single out the WHO on this. Scientific opinion has been all over the place on the subject of asymptomatic people.


  • #3319
    DevilsHaircut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    Yeah we all know there are certain posters who get off on posting the death rates when a place is in the midst of an outbreak but are nowhere to be seen when things get better. New york for example. We were getting daily death updates, now not a mention. Same with Italy and Spain. In fact, now that things are getting better in most places they are nowhere to be seen except to pop in occasionally to warn of the mythical second wave or other unsubstantiated fear mongering (such as the virus laying dormant for years and "activating". Lol)

    Its painfully obvious what their game is.


    Do you have any plans to return to Ireland (from Las Vegas)?


  • #3320
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,445 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    fr336 wrote: »
    So how are Italy, Spain and the rest of Europe getting on?

    Reasonably well. Not sure I have a lot of faith in Spain's reporting.

    For now, it's under control in most European countries.


  • #3321
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Steve F wrote: »
    September or October....by then people will be really complacent about social distancing,hand washing etc

    How can people be complacent about hand washing? It's one of the most basic things you can do as a human. The mind boggles!


  • Advertisement
  • #3322
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,338 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    That's what I'm saying, it'll be interesting to see how this develops. We'll soon see if there's much reaction to their comments and or proof from doctors on the front line across Europe to backup or disprove the theory

    I think most countries started ignoring the WHO early on - remember don't stop flights, don't stop this, don't stop that, continue trade with China..... Meanwhile the virus is spreading on flights from Wuhan


  • #3323
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Reasonably well. Not sure I have a lot of faith in Spain's reporting.

    For now, it's under control in most European countries.

    And they say you don't do positive Kermit! (They're also complete morons on several fronts but anyway)

    Hard to believe there is light coming at the end of the tunnel. But our guard must be up in every country as if things could get out of hand again at any moment, nobody wants to go into the restrictions phase again....


  • #3324
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    The ridiculous thing is that through the media coverage, you would be led to believe that "most transmission is not through asymptomatic spreaders" as was previously thought.

    If you didn't look closely, you would think that this is great news because it would indicate that the spread is by symptomatic carriers.

    In fact, the opposite is true. They have just "hinted at" what they mean by asymptomatic - that the person NEVER SHOWS SYMPTOMS.

    The study they refer to actually shows that the spread is most prevalent in PRESYMPTOMATIC carriers - that is, people who haven't YET shown symptoms.

    The nature of our perception of time is such that regardless of whether they are asymptomatic or presymptomatic, we still WILL NOT YET KNOW that they are infected.

    So this is scarcely even actually pertinent information for the general public. It is an important distinction for the scientists, granted. But the sensationalist way it is reported (like fooking everything about this virus) means that it is only going to make idiots more confused and misled thinking that people without symptoms transmitting the virus is less of a risk, when it's plainly not.


  • #3325
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    s1ippy wrote: »
    The ridiculous thing is that through the media coverage, you would be led to believe that "most transmission is not through asymptomatic spreaders" as was previously thought.

    If you didn't look closely, you would think that this is great news because it would indicate that the spread is by symptomatic carriers.

    In fact, the opposite is true. They have just "hinted at" what they mean by asymptomatic - that the person NEVER SHOWS SYMPTOMS.

    The study they refer to actually shows that the spread is most prevalent in PRESYMPTOMATIC carriers - that is, people who haven't YET shown symptoms.

    The nature of our perception of time is such that regardless of whether they are asymptomatic or presymptomatic, we still WILL NOT YET KNOW that they are infected.

    So this is scarcely even actually pertinent information for the general public. It is an important distinction for the scientists, granted. But the sensationalist way it is reported (like fooking everything about this virus) means that it is only going to make idiots more confused and misled thinking that people without symptoms transmitting the virus is less of a risk, when it's plainly not.
    Eh? It is important, you can't contact trace an asymptomatic carrier, but you can trace a presymptomatic carrier when they later show symptoms..


  • #3326
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Location: Ireland, UK, many other countries.

    February/March: "It's just the flu, we can't close the country down, we can't stop people coming in the economy will be in ruins"
    March/April: Case and death rates surge, Whole countries locked down, only essential workers going out to work, economy falling off a cliff
    June: Lockdown eased, economy and society can start to return to normal with sensible precautions. "We are through the worst, the virus just seems to have disappeared maybe it's the weather I dunno, anyway we need to get back to normal none of this mask or social distancing nonsense, we need to get back to where we were before otherwise the economy is screwed."
    TBC: Round 2? I hope to god there isn't, but you can bet the same people talking about scrapping social distancing will then blame those who warned about the virus returning of scaremongering.


  • #3327
    DevilsHaircut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Reasonably well. Not sure I have a lot of faith in Spain's reporting.

    For now, it's under control in most European countries.

    Please come back Kermit (at opportune moments, given the trajectory of this thread) to defend the rational posters from the onslaught of 'plumbers'.

    You were bullied out.


  • #3328
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    fr336 wrote: »
    And they say you don't do positive Kermit! (They're also complete morons on several fronts but anyway)

    Hard to believe there is light coming at the end of the tunnel. But our guard must be up in every country as if things could get out of hand again at any moment, nobody wants to go into the restrictions phase again....

    He did qualify his post by stating for now and he is probably correct............... for now.


  • #3329
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Ireland follows what the ECDC says and what the WHO says. I’m gonna trust our professionals.
    Good

    So you will wear a mask on public transport and when you go into a shop then!.

    Well done


  • #3330
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    DevilsHaircut wrote: »
    Please come back Kermit (at opportune moments, given the trajectory of this thread) to defend the rational posters from the onslaught of 'plumbers'.

    You were bullied out.
    Yes welcome back Kermit.


    However, lots of people were locked out by a 503 error that has since been resolved.


  • Advertisement
  • #3331
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    So if you're a doctor or nurse with no PPE and in close contact with very sick infected hospitalised patient then viral load will give you Covid?? :eek:

    Absolutely what did happen in several countries. Why so surprised by this?


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement