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Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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Comments

  • #3272
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    PopTarts wrote: »
    When will we get the % cured / the R rate this week?

    Will it all be Thursday?

    Recovered figures are usually Wednesday. Last week we saw as low as 754 active cases. Be great to get that under 500 this week.


  • #3273
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    normanoffside wrote: »
    WHO says that it is 'very rare' for Asymptomatic carrier to pass on Covid 19

    https://www.axios.com/who-coronavirus-asymptomatic-patients-08d84e31-1846-44d8-8fe1-2343ff850764.html

    If thats true it changes a lot to be honest. Social distancing and masks are basically only working against asymptomatic carriers atm.


  • #3274
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    JoChervil wrote: »
    It even proves more. Because if there were 30 cases of COVID x-rays, so it could be only a small percentage of really infected.

    From your link:
    "The radiologists determined the chest x-rays were normal in 58.3% of cases, and normal or only mildly abnormal in 89% of patients."

    The chest x rays of those with Covid who exhibit lung damage are characteristic of Covid 19 but also of many other conditions. With evidence of having had potential exposure to the virus it can be concluded that it was caused by Covid, however it can be a multitude of other conditions. There appears to be clamour out there to be the one who finds prof of early spread, but why not just do antibody tests on these early patients to prove it. The fact that this evidence hasn’t come out, eg. X rays showing signs with positive antibody test suggest it may not be out there. But I am open to being proven wrong

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity


  • #3275
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    tom1ie wrote: »
    So all the clique on here who are dismissing other posters answer me this.
    Do you think we will see a second wave? If not why not?

    1) theres no clique, some people just chat utter tripe.

    2) No. If we haven’t seen signs of it in other countries by now I doubt we’ll have one. Spikes and clusters dispersed yes, but not a wave.


  • #3276
    JoChervil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    If thats true it changes a lot to be honest. Social distancing and masks are basically only working against asymptomatic carriers atm.

    It doesn't. In the video posted here with a main guy in South Korea, he said that people are infectious 2 days before developing symptoms.


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  • #3277
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    JoChervil wrote: »
    It doesn't. In the video posted here with a main guy in South Korea, he said that people are infectious 2 days before developing symptoms.

    The CMO has said many times we are using them to protect against asymptomatic carriers. It doesn’t really matter what South Korea say, we live in Ireland.


  • #3278
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Steve F wrote: »
    I do but I think it will be better managed than the first.
    When do I think it will hit?
    September or October....by then people will be really complacent about social distancing,hand washing etc
    Christmas will be interesting this year

    Problem is how will contact tracing work when we get (relatively) large numbers all at once due to the demonstrations. Not just in Ireland but worldwide.
    It’ll potentially be 2-3 weeks of mixing with the public before symptoms show. How can we possibly trace that with social distancing on the wan and the protests?


  • #3279
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    1) theres no clique, some people just chat utter tripe.

    2) No. If we haven’t seen signs of it in other countries by now I doubt we’ll have one. Spikes and clusters dispersed yes, but not a wave.

    We haven’t seen the results of the mass gatherings yet.


  • #3280
    JoChervil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The chest x rays of those with Covid who exhibit lung damage are characteristic of Covid 19 but also of many other conditions. With evidence of having had potential exposure to the virus it can be concluded that it was caused by Covid, however it can be a multitude of other conditions. There appears to be clamour out there to be the one who finds prof of early spread, but why not just do antibody tests on these early patients to prove it. The fact that this evidence hasn’t come out, eg. X rays showing signs with positive antibody test suggest it may not be out there. But I am open to being proven wrong

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-glass_opacity

    I am not saying that it for sure was here. I am like you open for any outcome


  • #3281
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CMO has said many times we are using them to protect against asymptomatic carriers. It doesn’t really matter what South Korea say, we live in Ireland.

    CMO needs to update his science, the virus isn't different in Ireland or S. Korea..

    Besides, anyone from Asia i've seen travelling over the years have always worn a facemask even in the middle of a desert...


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  • #3282
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Problem is how will contact tracing work when we get (relatively) large numbers all at once due to the demonstrations. Not just in Ireland but worldwide.
    It’ll potentially be 2-3 weeks of mixing with the public before symptoms show. How can we possibly trace that with social distancing on the wan and the protests?

    2 meters 15 minutes. It’s not that many people with a degree of distancing still in place and the vast majority of transmissions will still occur in those circumstances. It’s not like the uv dye used in those tv documentaries that show how is it is for pathogens to spread.

    You will also find people will be much more aware of their contacts


  • #3283
    JoChervil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭JoChervil


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CMO has said many times we are using them to protect against asymptomatic carriers. It doesn’t really matter what South Korea say, we live in Ireland.

    Good for you, if you are able to distinguish pre-symptomatic from asymptomatic person. I am not a prophet and don't know, if a person breathing at me will develop the disease or not, so I prefer to be safe...


  • #3284
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    2 meters 15 minutes. It’s not that many people with a degree of distancing still in place and the vast majority of transmissions will still occur in those circumstances. It’s not like the uv dye used in those tv documentaries that show how is it is for pathogens to spread.

    You will also find people will be much more aware of their contacts

    No they won’t. Not after two weeks.
    There was very little social distancing at the marches across the world.
    Have you seen the reports on the news/social media?
    We may not have been too bad but the uk, USA, Brazil........ social distancing at points was non existent.


  • #3285
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    CMO needs to update his science, the virus isn't different in Ireland or S. Korea..

    Besides, anyone from Asia i've seen travelling over the years have always worn a facemask even in the middle of a desert...

    Ireland follows what the ECDC says and what the WHO says. I’m gonna trust our professionals.


  • #3286
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    tom1ie wrote: »
    No they won’t. Not after two weeks.
    There was very little social distancing at the marches across the world.
    Have you seen the reports on the news/social media?
    We may not have been too bad but the uk, USA, Brazil........ social distancing at points was non existent.

    Outside in good ventilation is known to be far less risky. It’s face to face contact or poorly ventilated areas that have most of the risk


  • #3287
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Outside in good ventilation is known to be far less risky. It’s face to face contact or poorly ventilated areas that have most of the risk

    Indeed although that’s when people are socially distanced.
    When you get 1000’s cramed in together shouting and screaming in a pandemic, the risk of spread is quite high.


  • #3288
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Ireland follows what the ECDC says and what the WHO says. I’m gonna trust our professionals.

    Good man, stick your mask on and genuflect to Pope Tony...


  • #3289
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Good man, stick your mask on and genuflect to Pope Tony...
    Do you not agree with the CMO? Single figure cases today suggest we're doing okay.


  • #3290
    Steve F
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    2 meters 15 minutes. It’s not that many people with a degree of distancing still in place and the vast majority of transmissions will still occur in those circumstances. It’s not like the uv dye used in those tv documentaries that show how is it is for pathogens to spread.

    You will also find people will be much more aware of their contacts
    The 15 minute threshold is nonsense.Can't understand why people believe it
    Covid19 is primarily spread from person to person via droplets in their saliva when they talk,sneeze,cough.
    It doesn't take 15 mins for the droplets to travel from one person to another.Its simply not true you have to be with someone for more 15mins for you to be at risk


  • #3291
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Do you not agree with the CMO? Single figure cases today suggest we're doing okay.

    They can’t bear that what they have being giving out about for weeks now has been shown to work, and that as the evidence has presented itself the guidance has moved with. They are now reduced to glib insults that they believe validate their manic rantings


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  • #3292
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Steve F wrote: »
    The 15 minute threshold is nonsense.Can't understand why people believe it
    Covid19 is primarily spread from person to person via droplets in their saliva when they talk,sneeze,cough.
    It doesn't take 15 mins for the droplets to travel from one person to another.Its simply not true you have to be with someone for more 15mins for you to be at risk

    Think it’s to do with viral load.


  • #3293
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Steve F wrote: »
    The 15 minute threshold is nonsense.Can't understand why people believe it
    Covid19 is primarily spread from person to person via droplets in their saliva when they talk,sneeze,cough.
    It doesn't take 15 mins for the droplets to travel from one person to another.Its simply not true you have to be with someone for more 15mins for you to be at risk
    Viral load is a thing. More time spent with an individual = higher viral load. That's why so many doctors/nurses died in Italy.


  • #3294
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CMO has said many times we are using them to protect against asymptomatic carriers. It doesn’t really matter what South Korea say, we live in Ireland.
    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Do you not agree with the CMO? Single figure cases today suggest we're doing okay.

    Your point was you think people should wear masks to "protect against asymptomatic carriers" ... because the CMO says so...

    When even the WHO's own document states:
    Comprehensive studies on transmission from asymptomatic
    individuals are difficult to conduct, but the available evidence
    from contact tracing reported by Member States suggests that
    asymptomatically-infected individuals are much less likely to
    transmit the virus than those who develop symptoms.


  • #3295
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Your point was you think people should wear masks to "protect against asymptomatic carriers" ... because the CMO says so...

    When even the WHO's own document states:
    The WHO literally just released this information today.


  • #3296
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Think it’s to do with viral load.

    It’s also a confidence interval thing. Yes infection can occur within the 15 minutes and 2 meters, but these are random events. What they can say is 90% of the time contact needs to be more than 15 mins at less than two meters.


  • #3297
    Tenzor07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,428 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Viral load is a thing. More time spent with an individual = higher viral load. That's why so many doctors/nurses died in Italy.

    So if you're a doctor or nurse with no PPE and in close contact with very sick infected hospitalised patient then viral load will give you Covid?? :eek:


  • #3298
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Steve F wrote: »
    The 15 minute threshold is nonsense.Can't understand why people believe it
    Covid19 is primarily spread from person to person via droplets in their saliva when they talk,sneeze,cough.
    It doesn't take 15 mins for the droplets to travel from one person to another.Its simply not true you have to be with someone for more 15mins for you to be at risk

    While I agree and absolute hate that RTÉ pastes it at the end of all their covid articles - The 15 minute thing is guidance and based on balancing likelihood of infection and contact tracing.

    If you ask me who I’ve been near in the last two weeks it could be a lot of people, my wife, kid, cashiers in supermarkets, the lad in the petrol station, delivery drivers, friends, etc. Whereas when you introduce the 15 mins & less 2 metres, my only contacts are wife and kid.

    Worst part is I was chatting to a nurse friend about masks, and she insisted that they were useless, if she sees anyone coughing she’ll just make sure she isn’t near them for more than 15 mins. A nurse ffs.


  • #3299
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,142 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It’s also a confidence interval thing. Yes infection can occur within the 15 minutes and 2 meters, but these are random events. What they can say is 90% of the time contact needs to be more than 15 mins at less than two meters.

    Say like in the middle of a packed mass gathering?


  • #3300
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,535 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    It’s also a confidence interval thing. Yes infection can occur within the 15 minutes and 2 meters, but these are random events. What they can say is 90% of the time contact needs to be more than 15 mins at less than two meters.

    Yup, it's about probability. Everything about transmission is a probability question, and you have to make a decision involving risk.

    15 mins and 2M was chosen because the probability of infection increases with time and decreases with distance. You set an acceptable level of risk and then decide on what numbers are the best practical guidance.

    Of course another risk variable to take into account is prevalence of virus in the community.

    That decision is open to judgement though.


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  • #3301
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,535 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Say like in the middle of a packed mass gathering?

    I would imagine any indoor gathering would need distancing. Maybe more than 2M if it's a seated area for a long period of time?


This discussion has been closed.
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