Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

08-06-2020 02:44PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Are you asking me to justify why I believe imperial college models are "so wrong"?

No, I am asking you to explain on what basis you believe the number of 12-15 million cases across 11 European countries is wrong?

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 02:45PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I fail to see anything even remotely funny about people dying as a result of contracting the virus regardless of the numbers involved. It appears you have a different view.

I see you havent changed at all. Still twisting words to the extreme.

Whats funny is that there are STILL some people out there who believe "models" are credible.

Thats all.

vid36 · 08-06-2020 02:52PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I see you havent changed at all. Still twisting words to the extreme.

Whats funny is that there are STILL some people out there who believe "models" are credible.

Thats all.

They are using similar models are as used in economic predictions that you place such stock in.

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 02:55PM

Deleted User wrote: »

No, I am asking you to explain on what basis you believe the number of 12-15 million cases across 11 European countries is wrong?

Because there are credible health reports coming out saying that covid was on the way to being suppressed even before bloody lockdown was introduced. Do i trust Norway health department more than Neil Ferguson who broke his own lockdown restrictions he himself recommended? you bet.

Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1…

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 02:57PM

vid36 wrote: »

They are using similar models are as used in economic predictions that you place such stock in.

So you are basically admitting that their models are rubbish and you reference my faith in economic predictions validity?

I m happy we both agree Imperial college models are rubbish.

08-06-2020 03:00PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I see you haven't changed at all. Still twisting words to the extreme.

Whats funny is that there are STILL some people out there who believe "models" are credible.

Thats all.

Models are only as good as the information known at the time. That's why we still cant predict the weather beyond a few days with any degree of confidence.

What we did not know in early March was the true death rate from the virus was not c.3% but probably a bit below 1%. That makes a very different result from the models. It also underestimated the ability of social distancing to hold R value at or close to 1 preventing exponential spread. This is why I am confident in opening up now, as we have a proven measure to hold the growth than no one could have know would have worked in March.
Cases in Sweden are still growing however, so when the rest of Europe start visiting each other over the summer, very few people are going to want to open up travel to and from Sweden

vid36 · 08-06-2020 03:01PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

So you are basically admitting that their models are rubbish and you reference my faith in economic predictions validity?

I m happy we both agree Imperial college models are rubbish.

Models are predictions, like a weather forecast. Nobody can predict the rate of Unemployment in April 2021 anymore than they can predict the R value for October 2020. It is based on projections using the available data.

08-06-2020 03:03PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Because there are credible health reports coming out saying that covid was on the way to being suppressed even before bloody lockdown was introduced. Do i trust Norway health department more than Neil Ferguson who broke his own lockdown restrictions he himself recommended? you bet.

Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1…

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

You do know the 12 to 15 million figure was a study of what actually happened, not what was predicted to happen? Back to arguing something different than what is being discussed again?

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 03:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Models are only as good as the information known at the time. That's why we still cant predict the weather beyond a few days with any degree of confidence.

What we did not know in early March was the true death rate from the virus was not c.3% but probably a bit below 1%. That makes a very different result from the models. It also underestimated the ability of social distancing to hold R value at or close to 1 preventing exponential spread. This is why I am confident in opening up now, as we have a proven measure to hold the growth than no one could have know would have worked in March.
Cases in Sweden are still growing however, so when the rest of Europe start visiting each other over the summer, very few people are going to want to open up travel to and from Sweden

You really are off the mark today

Coronavirus: The tourists swapping lockdown for Sweden
Sweden has kept pubs, restaurants and shops open throughout the Covid 19 pandemic.

The more open approach is attracting growing numbers of British and European tourists, who’ve broken national guidelines advising against non-essential global travel in search of a beer or even a haircut.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52930886/coronavirus-the-tourists-swapping-lockdown-for-sweden

You see you have the right idea of what "should happen", its just complete opposite ends up happening.. :rolleyes:

Its like the classic "man city should beat crystal palace". yes, yes they "should"

stephenjmcd · 08-06-2020 03:06PM

https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1269986506644566016?s=19

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 03:07PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1269986506644566016?s=19

1 person wearing mask on the pic.

Classic.

moonage · 08-06-2020 03:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Because what was predicted to happen with no action, did not happen following action, it can be concluded the action was unnecessary and achieved nothing?

The action taken was totally out of proportion to the threat. A lockdown might be fine in a totalitarian country like China but why it was adopted by most of the rest of the world is bizzare.

Quarantining the healthy has never happened before. As pandemics go Covid-19 must be bottom of the list in terms of fatality rates but top in terms of fear and scaremongering.

Action was certainly needed (eg shielding the old and vulnerable, restricting large mass gatherings etc) but lockdown was unwarranted.

stephenjmcd · 08-06-2020 03:08PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

1 person wearing mask on the pic.

Classic.

Here's another for you
https://twitter.com/willgoodbody/status/1269972406510276610?s=19

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 03:10PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Here's another for you
https://twitter.com/willgoodbody/status/1269972406510276610?s=19

Very good to see normality and reality.

MickeyLeari · 08-06-2020 03:13PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Very good to see normality and reality.

They can go into a supermarket and buy their dinner, but cannot allow someone make them dinner (and provide employment). A small step towards normality,.

road_high · 08-06-2020 03:16PM

the kelt wrote: »

Yet you saw nothing wrong in telling another poster you had no issue if a barber used a cut throat razor on him because you disagreed with his view about him getting a hair cut.

Such compassion!!

Yea if it's not Covid related then you might as well roll over and die to this people.

08-06-2020 03:16PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You really are off the mark today

Coronavirus: The tourists swapping lockdown for Sweden
Sweden has kept pubs, restaurants and shops open throughout the Covid 19 pandemic.

The more open approach is attracting growing numbers of British and European tourists, who’ve broken national guidelines advising against non-essential global travel in search of a beer or even a haircut.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52930886/coronavirus-the-tourists-swapping-lockdown-for-sweden

You see you have the right idea of what "should happen", its just complete opposite ends up happening.. :rolleyes:

Its like the classic "man city should beat crystal palace". yes, yes they "should"

All those tourists swamping Stockholm with 16 flights from outside Sweden due to arrive there tomorrow, with most of those coming from Scandanavia

Naos · 08-06-2020 03:20PM

the kelt wrote: »

Ive no idea, i think ive seen maybe 2 or 3 say they would have issues wearing masks.

I just thought it was curious thing to say that a large number also didnt want maks?

is_that_so wrote: »

I think the numbers claim may come from the poll with the Masks thread. Quite a few would only wear if mandatory and some won't wear masks at all.

Thanks for that 'is_that_so'. To be honest, the claim just came from reading this thread, I wasn't aware there was an poll taken.
That being said, I don't think anything will get through to 'the kelt', there are very obvious blinkers on if he cannot see what I can see considering he has over 250 posts on this topic.

average_runner · 08-06-2020 03:23PM

Deleted User wrote: »

All those tourists swamping Stockholm with 16 flights from outside Sweden due to arrive there tomorrow, with most of those coming from Scandanavia

A good friend of mine lives in Sweden. He has said most restaurants are struggling in Stockholm. Revenue is down 80-90% for April and May.

While they weren't in an official lockdown, most of the city unofficially did including some massive IT companies over there.

08-06-2020 03:26PM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

They can go into a supermarket and buy their dinner, but cannot allow someone make them dinner (and provide employment). A small step towards normality,.

Yes you can...lot of them in fact

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/eighty-fine-food-shops-and-restaurants-delivering-during-lockdown-1.4240771

https://www.just-eat.ie/

https://deliveroo.ie/

hmmm · 08-06-2020 03:27PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Because there are credible health reports coming out saying that covid was on the way to being suppressed even before bloody lockdown was introduced. Do i trust Norway health department more than Neil Ferguson who broke his own lockdown restrictions he himself recommended? you bet.

Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1…

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

Another report saying social distancing controlled the virus.

I'm happy you've finally come around to acknowledging the important role of social distancing. Because at times you seem to be arguing that "doing nothing" will suppress the virus.

08-06-2020 03:30PM

average_runner wrote: »

A good friend of mine lives in Sweden. He has said most restaurants are struggling in Stockholm. Revenue is down 80-90% for April and May.

While they weren't in an official lockdown, most of the city unofficially did including some massive IT companies over there.

It made good copy showing us all those pictures of Swedes enjoying a coffee or a beer in the sun. The fact is they did distance, did reduce economic activity and did suffer a large shock to the economy. And unlike the rest of Europe now have a growing number of cases and deaths a multiple of what other countries have. Could you imagine what it would be like here if we were still average 400-500 cases a day and 30+deaths.

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 03:31PM

hmmm wrote: »

Another report saying social distancing controlled the virus.

I'm happy you've finally come around to acknowledging the important role of social distancing. Because at times you seem to be arguing that "doing nothing" will suppress the virus.

I am happy you admit that lockdowns were of little use and social distancing measures controlled the virus.

I think you had a real breakthrough today.

Ginger n Lemon · 08-06-2020 03:33PM

Well well, not looking good

Eamon Ryan: 'A broad range of new taxes' to fund post-Covid recovery

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/eamon-ryan-a-broad-range-of-new-taxes-to-fund-post-covid-recovery-1003904.html

Do you know who ultimately pays taxes? yeah.

The contrast is striking

"France won’t raise taxes even with the economy suffering a deeper recession than previously expected because of the coronavirus lockdown, finance minister Bruno Le Maire has said.

The contraction this year will amount to 11 per cent, more than the 8 per cent previously predicted. That’s also more than the 9 per cent slump forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/france-won-t-raise-taxes-even-with-11-contraction-1.4268666

Benimar · 08-06-2020 03:34PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am happy you admit that lockdowns were of little use and social distancing measures controlled the virus.

I think you had a real breakthrough today.

So why do you want to reduce the social distancing measures when the virus has been controlled by them?

08-06-2020 03:34PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I am happy you admit that lockdowns were of little use and social distancing measures controlled the virus.

I think you had a real breakthrough today.

The difference is those who had a lockdown (nobody still has a lockdown) have suppressed t oa very low level, allowing the control to be had from a low base. Trends in Norway and Sweden were very similar up to mid march. Watch what happened then and ask yourself what they did differently

08-06-2020 03:38PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Well well, not looking good

Eamon Ryan: 'A broad range of new taxes' to fund post-Covid recovery

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/eamon-ryan-a-broad-range-of-new-taxes-to-fund-post-covid-recovery-1003904.html

Do you know who ultimately pays taxes? yeah.

The contrast is striking

"France won’t raise taxes even with the economy suffering a deeper recession than previously expected because of the coronavirus lockdown, finance minister Bruno Le Maire has said.

The contraction this year will amount to 11 per cent, more than the 8 per cent previously predicted. That’s also more than the 9 per cent slump forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey."

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/france-won-t-raise-taxes-even-with-11-contraction-1.4268666

Politicians in this country are economically illiterate and don't understand that the very thing that can turn a recession into a depression is taking money out of the economy either through tax increases or spending cuts

MickeyLeari · 08-06-2020 03:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes you can...lot of them in fact

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/eighty-fine-food-shops-and-restaurants-delivering-during-lockdown-1.4240771

https://www.just-eat.ie/

https://deliveroo.ie/

Sure with that logic, restaurants should just close. Restaurants are not open. Takeaways Are.

average_runner · 08-06-2020 03:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It made good copy showing us all those pictures of Swedes enjoying a coffee or a beer in the sun. The fact is they did distance, did reduce economic activity and did suffer a large shock to the economy. And unlike the rest of Europe now have a growing number of cases and deaths a multiple of what other countries have. Could you imagine what it would be like here if we were still average 400-500 cases a day and 30+deaths.

Also the coffee shops had to pay the full wages even though their turn around shot through the floor

facehugger99 · 08-06-2020 03:40PM

moonage wrote: »

The action taken was totally out of proportion to the threat. A lockdown might be fine in a totalitarian country like China but why it was adopted by most of the rest of the world is bizzare.

Quarantining the healthy has never happened before. As pandemics go Covid-19 must be bottom of the list in terms of fatality rates but top in terms of fear and scaremongering.

Action was certainly needed (eg shielding the old and vulnerable, restricting large mass gatherings etc) but lockdown was unwarranted.

100% correct, but this will never be admitted by the powers that be. They have invested too much in the 'lockdown-philosophy'

We'll now all be fed months of bullsh;t about how we saved thousands of lives by flushing the economy down the toilet. You can already see that this line has been swallowed whole by a number of mouth-breathers.

By the time the true costs of this lockdown become apparent, the architects of this nonsense will have sailed off into the sunset with gold-plated public service pensions.

God help us if there is an actually dangerous pandemic threat in 10 years time because there will be a huge reluctance to take similar action. The scientists will be the boys who cried wolf.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings