Is there a chance it could just die off completely?

ShineOn7 · 29-05-2020 11:16pm #1

Or to the point where it's a tiny risk?

It's a virus, so by definition don't they just feck off eventually?

L1m1tless · 29-05-2020 11:18pm

ShineOn7 · 29-05-2020 11:22pm

Poll added

Wesser · 29-05-2020 11:23pm

You didnt put any option for ' no' in the poll

ShineOn7 · 29-05-2020 11:25pm

Wesser wrote: »

You didnt put any option for ' no' in the poll

"It'll be around past 2023" is as negative as it should get

Atlantic Dawn · 29-05-2020 11:28pm

The chance of getting it now if you have sense is near zero.

hatrickpatrick · 29-05-2020 11:30pm

The Spanish flu did, and to this day they're still not quite sure why.

bb1234567 · 29-05-2020 11:30pm

Do you mean globally or in Ireland? Ireland and some countries may get rid of it, but outbreaks will clearly not be kept under control in a lot of developing countries , so it'll be a good while before it's gone from the entire world, in fact some countries appear to be easing restrictions even as the outbreak gets worse

funnydoggy · 29-05-2020 11:31pm

Not sure it'll die off but there are small signs the virus is changing. I don't think it's known yet if it's a good sign or not but you'd imagine that a virus is better if it spreads lots, and is less lethal. A bad virus would be more lethal but wouldn't be able to spread as much.

Hopefully the virus is mutating to be more of a "good" virus, evolutionary wise.

beachhead · 29-05-2020 11:31pm

Virus will remain active for years then go dormant.It hasn't devastated enough countries yet and controls are weak/non-existent in some northern and southern hemisphere

ceadaoin. · 29-05-2020 11:34pm

SARS 1 evolved into a much less dangerous virus and then disappeared. There are a few indications that this may be happening with SARS 2. I'm hopeful

Peter Flynt · 29-05-2020 11:35pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The Spanish flu did, and to this day they're still not quite sure why.

Estimated up to 100 million died. . . . Probably no one left to infect as everyone got it.

bb1234567 · 29-05-2020 11:37pm

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Estimated up to 100 million died. . . . Probably no one left to infect as everyone got it.

About 1 in 3 globally got it. A lot of people but not enough reason in itself to explain why it disappeared.

Peter Flynt · 29-05-2020 11:41pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

About 1 in 3 globally got it. A lot of people but not enough reason in itself to explain why it disappeared.

There was a 2.5% death rate. . . If estimated 100m died then pretty much everyone got it.

stephenjmcd · 29-05-2020 11:41pm

Who knows, there hasn't been a resurgence in Europe yet even within countries who've had restrictions relaxed for a number of weeks. It wasn't a theory I bought into a few weeks ago but we just have to wait and see, if it stays at low case numbers after restrictions lift then maybe it'll have evolved into something milder.

It's a wait and see at the moment. The longer we go without a sudden continued increase in cases the more weight might be given to theories surrounding any possible change in behaviour of the virus

appledrop · 30-05-2020 12:07am

I dont think it will die off. I think it will be like the flu and it will come and go at different times during the year. Hopefully there will be a vaccine because we will have to learn to live with it.

Kermit.de.frog · 30-05-2020 12:12am

This will be like the Aliens franchise where the 2nd outing is the most eventful but more scary.

Time to stock up on baked beans.

30-05-2020 12:25am

Internal lockdowns aren’t of much benefit.
The real test will be when air travel gets going a bit and big crowds such as concerts etc.

That’s when we’ll know if it’s going to come back or not.

I hope it doesn’t because lockdown is no longer an option.

trapp · 30-05-2020 12:28am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This will be like the Aliens franchise where the 2nd outing is the most eventful but more scary.

Time to stock up on baked beans.

Another dramatic post from Kevin the frog

What a surprise

Boring my poor man

Move on and grow up please for your own sake

Kermit.de.frog · 30-05-2020 12:29am

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope it doesn’t because lockdown is no longer an option.

It's inevitable in a resurgence unfortunately.

Which is why a resurgence has to be avoided and we need to maintain discipline in how we approach this from a policy point of view.

That means not taking foolish risks. Full stadia would be such a risk among many others.

stephenjmcd · 30-05-2020 12:31am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's inevitable in a resurgence unfortunately.

Which is why a resurgence has to be avoided and we need to maintain discipline in how we approach this from a policy point of view.

That means not taking foolish risks. Full stadia would be such a risk among many others.

Will you stop presenting resurange as fact, it's your opinion, nothing more nothing less. We all have our own opinion on it which we're entitled to,but to declare it inevitable isn't accurate.

Is there cold hard evidence that there will be a second wave / resurgence?? No there is not. Will there be low levels of cases that can be managed, yes but that's not a resurgence. We're much more prepared now for cases which wouldn't see us go back into an inevitable lockdown, first time round we hadn't a clue what we were dealing with

Kermit.de.frog · 30-05-2020 12:33am

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Will you stop presenting resurange as fact, it's your opinion, nothing more nothing less.

I didn't.

It is indeed my opinion which I believe I am entitled to.

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-05-2020 12:48am

No, monkeys in India have just stolen live blood lab samples, after attacking a lab assistant there.
https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News/Asia/India?search=Monkeys

2021 will go much the way of Planet of the Apes.

GT89 · 30-05-2020 1:24am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's inevitable in a resurgence unfortunately.

Which is why a resurgence has to be avoided and we need to maintain discipline in how we approach this from a policy point of view.

That means not taking foolish risks. Full stadia would be such a risk among many others.

Well if we keep going in and out of lockdown or severe restrictions. The economy will not be able to cope simple as that. It will get to the point where food will have to be rationed and tbh with you I fail to see how we can we could even pay for treating people if a second wave does come around.

I fear to the extent that if a second wave was to come around which it likely will not we will not have have the money to deal with it. Things like full stadiums will have to come back without social distancing as they are crucial to the wider economy in the broader picture.

Tokyo · 30-05-2020 4:07am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This will be like the Aliens franchise where the 2nd outing is the most eventful but more scary.

Time to stock up on baked beans.

Mod: How exactly is this adding to the discussion? Any more nonsense like this and I'll start removing posts (and posters).

Be right back · 30-05-2020 7:01am

It seems to be infecting people not as badly in Italy for example. No sign of a second wave in European countries that have eased restrictions either.

Voltex · 30-05-2020 7:22am

You do realise that a form of the Spanish Flu still circulates today - H1N1 was the responsible strain for both 2009 and 1918 outbreaks. Its just not as virulent and seems to have adapted to its human hosts.

SARS-Cov2 has started to mutate, but these have been largely neutral or just mildly deleterious.

A great guy to follow for all this stuff is Prof Francois Balloux.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108506v1

VinLieger · 30-05-2020 8:21am

No its endemic and vaccinations for it could very well be an annual thing like the yearly flub jab.

nickkinneg · 30-05-2020 9:28am

Its reported man onboard flight to lanzarote got a positive result while onboard the plane - 140 people quarantined - The man now faces prosecution for skipping quarantine and the State of Emergency and has been reported for a possible crime against public health - this does not bode well

Away With The Fairies · 30-05-2020 9:55am

It's not going anywhere as long as it still has hosts. SARS died off because it was easier to isolate sick people, they weren't contagious until they showed symptoms. Not the same with this virus though, people are contagious before showing symptoms so if you have people thinking they're fine and spreading it.

jd1983 · 30-05-2020 10:20am

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do you mean globally or in Ireland? Ireland and some countries may get rid of it, but outbreaks will clearly not be kept under control in a lot of developing countries , so it'll be a good while before it's gone from the entire world, in fact some countries appear to be easing restrictions even as the outbreak gets worse

What countries are easing restrictions as the outbreak is worsening?

bb1234567 · 30-05-2020 10:31am

jd1983 wrote: »

What countries are easing restrictions as the outbreak is worsening?

Mexico, India, Pakistan ,Indonesia

Dakota Dan · 30-05-2020 10:33am

bb1234567 wrote: »

Do you mean globally or in Ireland? Ireland and some countries may get rid of it, but outbreaks will clearly not be kept under control in a lot of developing countries , so it'll be a good while before it's gone from the entire world, in fact some countries appear to be easing restrictions even as the outbreak gets worse

So you just made all that up, in other words you haven’t a clue what will happen.

bb1234567 · 30-05-2020 11:02am

Dakota Dan wrote: »

So you just made all that up, in other words you haven’t a clue what will happen.

Nobody does,every single reply on this thread is subjective opinion, should we close this thread down then? I havn't given any indication of how long I think it will be around, but given tge fact that several large developing countries are making little to no effort to control it, it is difficult to see this virus being eradicated within 6 months considering how long it has remained within the western world despite lockdowns lasting 2-3 months.

jd1983 · 30-05-2020 11:19am

bb1234567 wrote: »

Mexico, India, Pakistan ,Indonesia

Looking at their deaths per million, it doesn't look like they've had much of an outbreak at all. Their testing rates are quite low, so that might explain their low deaths per million rate but it's not possible to be certain.
I'm not sure about the other 3 countries but India's lockdown was brutal and seriously impinged on their human rights, so it's a good thing they've started to ease restrictions.

Be right back · 30-05-2020 11:23am

nickkinneg wrote: »

Its reported man onboard flight to lanzarote got a positive result while onboard the plane - 140 people quarantined - The man now faces prosecution for skipping quarantine and the State of Emergency and has been reported for a possible crime against public health - this does not bode well

I read that too. What a selfish so and so. How many has he put at risk?

bb1234567 · 30-05-2020 11:23am

jd1983 wrote: »

Looking at their deaths per million, it doesn't look like they've had much of an outbreak at all. Their testing rates are quite low, so that might explain their low deaths per million rate but it's not possible to be certain.
I'm not sure about the other 3 countries but India's lockdown was brutal and seriously impinged on their human rights, so it's a good thing they've started to ease restrictions.

Yeh no the outbreaks aren't too bad at all in most of these places, but there has been a marked increase in the number of cases and deaths lately in all of those countries just before restrictions were eased

Kermit.de.frog · 30-05-2020 11:44am

GT89 wrote: »

Well if we keep going in and out of lockdown or severe restrictions. The economy will not be able to cope simple as that. It will get to the point where food will have to be rationed and tbh with you I fail to see how we can we could even pay for treating people if a second wave does come around.

I fear to the extent that if a second wave was to come around which it likely will not we will not have have the money to deal with it. Things like full stadiums will have to come back without social distancing as they are crucial to the wider economy in the broader picture.

I support the CDC view of this that this could really flare through the Autumn.

I hope that's not the case but I'm not going to be in denial either.

If people want to have the perfectly legitimate view that that won't happen then more power to them.

We need to be prepared to take the actions we need to take either way whether it happens or not.

And stuffing people in to stadiums would be ridiculous as things currently stand. The authorities know better which is why full stadiums are out for the foreseeable future and that the right approach.

You can't on the one hand complain about Cheltenham and at the same time want full stadiums.

It's important to note nothing has changed with this disease since February. It's still the same thing countries are dealing with as it was then.

Yet some seem to believe something has changed.

I understand people are angry and frustrated, their jobs are at risk, they can't do a lot of things they use to do and they want things back to normal ASAP. You can see it here, posters have strong views because they are worried like the rest of us.

We can get a form of normal back and at the same time retain distancing measures to keep the infection down.

Filling up stadiums is not one of them and is the shifting of the goal posts to a hopelessly irresponsible level that will see us all back here again.

If we want to get as close to normal as possible we have to accept some things that are abnormal for the foreseeable future.

The price of not doing that is too high.

nickkinneg · 30-05-2020 1:50pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I support the CDC view of this that this could really flare through the Autumn.

I hope that's not the case but I'm not going to be in denial either.

If people want to have the perfectly legitimate view that that won't happen then more power to them.

We need to be prepared to take the actions we need to take either way whether it happens or not.

And stuffing people in to stadiums would be ridiculous as things currently stand. The authorities know better which is why full stadiums are out for the foreseeable future and that the right approach.

You can't on the one hand complain about Cheltenham and at the same time want full stadiums.

It's important to note nothing has changed with this disease since February. It's still the same thing countries are dealing with as it was then.

Yet some seem to believe something has changed.

I understand people are angry and frustrated, their jobs are at risk, they can't do a lot of things they use to do and they want things back to normal ASAP. You can see it here, posters have strong views because they are worried like the rest of us.

We can get a form of normal back and at the same time retain distancing measures to keep the infection down.

Filling up stadiums is not one of them and is the shifting of the goal posts to a hopelessly irresponsible level that will see us all back here again.

If we want to get as close to normal as possible we have to accept some things that are abnormal for the foreseeable future.

The price of not doing that is too high.

I agree - its ability to mutate - i have no expertise - but have read a few scientists opinions that it will be back in force in autumn/winter. Guess time will shortly tell

ShineOn7 · 30-05-2020 2:20pm

re: WHO saying there'll be a second wave, that's not what this artice says

WHO warns there could be a second peak, not a second wave

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-25-20-intl/h_f260b669316ece8af17b56e6dc0ab64b

ShineOn7 · 30-05-2020 8:13pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This will be like the Aliens franchise where the 2nd outing is the most eventful but more scary.

Time to stock up on baked beans.

I thought you were joking in a Naked Gun/Airplane parody kinda way

But you weren't

Kermit.de.frog · 30-05-2020 8:58pm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I thought you were joking in a Naked Gun/Airplane parody kinda way

But you weren't

I was.

ShineOn7 · 30-05-2020 9:43pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I was.

Tbh Kermit, given your recent track record, it's hard to know the difference

ShineOn7 · 01-06-2020 12:51am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ

Coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, according to a senior Italian doctor.

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from Covid-19 at 33,415 and has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019. However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May.

Dr Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality.

"We've got to get back to being a normal country," he said.

Atlantic Dawn · 01-06-2020 1:00am

The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.

snoopboggybog · 01-06-2020 1:11am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.

Brazil isn't and the states isn't?

Going to be around for a long long time. 10,000 protesting in Chicago yesterday side by side and the place is riddled with it.

bb1234567 · 01-06-2020 1:14am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The media laughed a lot when Donald T suggested the warm weather would kill it, who is laughing now?

In actual fact the general reason infection rate is falling is people are keeping a wide berth of people coughing piss laden death air around them and also are deciding to steer clear of U-boat style accommodation where you get in to a warm bed from the person sharing before you. Those in the nursing homes were killed by poorly paid staff not understanding the basics of how the virus could be spread. Those living in the nursing homes sadly couldn't regulate the basic hygiene of those feeding them, they assumed it would be a minimum standard and not staff coughing virus laden air in to their hands to then feed and make contact with them, healthcare 101 that they were failed on, criminal.

It was still a stupid remark. `The outbreak is growing within several regions of the world with tropical , desert and equitorial climates, of course most infamously Brazil being the worst example. It was 'killed' in the USA and EU because of lockdown, not the weather. I don't know how you could possibly think the weather is reponsible for the decline in cases and not the 3 month long lockdown we have all just experienced.

Atlantic Dawn · 01-06-2020 1:19am

snoopboggybog wrote: »

Brazil isn't and the states isn't?

Going to be around for a long long time. 10,000 protesting in Chicago yesterday side by side and the place is riddled with it.

Favela's Brazil are U-Boat style accommodation, it will be there a long time and kills multiples of those dead now. Those in Chicago are generally not returning to similar accommodation and anyone with sense is washing their hands and avoiding spreaders.

Atlantic Dawn · 01-06-2020 1:20am

bb1234567 wrote: »

It was still a stupid remark. `The outbreak is growing within several regions of the world with tropical , desert and equitorial climates, of course most infamously Brazil being the worst example. It was 'killed' in the USA and EU because of lockdown, not the weather. I don't know how you could possibly think the weather is reponsible for the decline in cases and not the 3 month long lockdown we have all just experienced.

Read the rest of my post regarding U-Boat style accommodation.

bb1234567 · 01-06-2020 1:21am

ShineOn7 wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ

I mean, this is weird because if it's true why has it never been mentioned before? Like that would be big news, is it just unique to Italy or something?

ShineOn7 · 01-06-2020 1:21am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Favela's Brazil are U-Boat style accommodation

What's that?

Is there a chance it could just die off completely?

Will Covid just eventually die out completely/to the point where it's barely a threat 318 votes

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