Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

fr336 · 27-05-2020 12:29PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Still declining all over Europe even with varying degrees of lockdowns implemented, the trajectory based with data from other European countries seems to indicate a peak being reached in roughly the same timeframe followed by the decline and tail off that we see now.

So as has been mentioned before viruses simply have a lifespan and decline naturally over time? Really hope this is the case here but I can't see what else the governments could have done but lockdown. Actually I can - screening or flat out banning arrivals into the country when this was kicking off in Italy, having local lockdowns again as in Italy etc. But we are where we are.

stephenjmcd · 27-05-2020 12:29PM

owlbethere wrote: »

People whinging about closed pubs and the economy as if the pubs will take the economy out from whatever nosedive its taking ahead of the health and safety and welfare of the population.

Where is anyone still whinging about closed pubs ? The only people moaning about them are those that seem to want restrictions to drag out.

The economy is currently being strangled, the more businesses that get back open the better. Without said businesses and economy there wont be anything to pay for the health of the population.

You do realise the billions that the entire hospitality sector contributes to the public finances each year ?? In turn funding health services and other essential services.

Like it or not all sectors of the economy need to get functioning again. Health and economy are closely linked.

fr336 · 27-05-2020 12:30PM

owlbethere wrote: »

People whinging about closed pubs and the economy as if the pubs will take the economy out from whatever nosedive its taking ahead of the health and safety and welfare of the population.

It's interesting, here in England there has been talk for years of pubs dying out and thousands of them have closed yet you'd think during this that literally everyone went to the pub every day. I swear people just don't like being told what to do.

27-05-2020 12:31PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I read that if retail want to open they must make times available for the vulnerable . I will try to find it again

Found it .

https://www.thejournal.ie/phase-2-covid-whats-new-5107812-May2020/

Those who can work from home will continue to do so.

The retail outlets which are to reopen must develop safeguards for their staff and their prospective customers. They must consider the following:

social distancing compliance
hygiene and cleaning
plans for medically vulnerable or pregnant people
extended opening hours to enable social distancing

keyword is consider

Plumbthedepths · 27-05-2020 12:31PM

owlbethere wrote: »

People whinging about closed pubs and the economy as if the pubs will take the economy out from whatever nosedive its taking ahead of the health and safety and welfare of the population.

The only ones I see making a constant reference to closed pubs is those in favour of continuing a lockdown, it's a childish attempt to dismiss the opinion of those you disagree with it.
A closed economy will also spell less money for health expenditure going forward, any thoughts to possible outcomes for peoples welfare then.
Health and economic activity are closely related.

igCorcaigh · 27-05-2020 12:31PM

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265375154055544832?s=19

stephenjmcd · 27-05-2020 12:32PM

fr336 wrote: »

So as has been mentioned before viruses simply have a lifespan and decline naturally over time? Really hope this is the case here but I can't see what else the governments could have done but lockdown. Actually I can - screening or flat out banning arrivals into the country when this was kicking off in Italy, having local lockdowns again as in Italy etc. But we are where we are.

Who knows it might be burning out, it wasn't a theory I believed a few weeks ago but its hard to look past it more countries experience the same results when lifting restrictions

27-05-2020 12:35PM

growleaves wrote: »

My post has to do with the willingness of people such as yourself to embrace totalitarianism.

In a few years you'll be admonishing people who are unhappy about carbon rationing.

Where in my post did I embrace totalitarianism?-Read it again, slowly maybe.

eagle eye · 27-05-2020 12:37PM

MD1990 wrote:

Seems like after the virus explodes for a few months it may possibly become less contagious over time. Maybe many people are immune to the virus.

It might be down to better weather and vitamin d levels rising in people.
Scientists are all over the place on this. I've heard some saying it's going to burn out, hope they are right, others saying that we'll all get a second wave in our winter, others saying we are going through this for two years.
It's hard to know what to believe.
My only intent is to source any news and see where it's coming from. Social media like Twitter is full of lies so I'll take no information as gospel from there. I like the CDC in the US as a news source. No crap on there, just advice.

fr336 · 27-05-2020 12:48PM

eagle eye wrote: »

It might be down to better weather and vitamin d levels rising in people.
Scientists are all over the place on this. I've heard some saying it's going to burn out, hope they are right, others saying that we'll all get a second wave in our winter, others saying we are going through this for two years.
It's hard to know what to believe.
My only intent is to source any news and see where it's coming from. Social media like Twitter is full of lies so I'll take no information as gospel from there. I like the CDC in the US as a news source. No crap on there, just advice.

In normal times we are so used to things feeling pretty certain or stable or at least a majority view reached. Covid has just upended everything.

Hmmzis · 27-05-2020 12:49PM

MD1990 wrote: »

Us opened up many states on May 1st nearly 4 weeks ago.

So many unknowns about the virus.

I believe some people may have cross immunity.
It is declining all over Europe

Cross-immunity, maybe, maybe not. There are indications in at least 3 papers of it (that I know of) but no conclusive proof yet.

I think the biggest part in halting the spread has been better understanding of how it spreads and people adjusting their behaviour accordingly:

- keeping distance
- minimising social contacts
- masks in many places
- avoiding closed environments with many people
- improving ventilation in enclosed environments
- being outside more
- working from home where possible
- test, trace, isolate practices being carried out

All the tracing reports that I've read so far have traced the big spreading events back to crowded indoor places with lots of talking, singing and shouting going on. The secondary infections are mostly in households, where someone from a super spreader event infected a family member. Then again, the secondary household attack rates are very low for what should be a very contagious virus (10-15% symptomatic cases, lower for asymptomatic but too lazy to fine the paper stating that). Transmission outside of households and enclosed environments is quite rare.

hmmm · 27-05-2020 12:52PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Scientists are all over the place on this. I've heard some saying it's going to burn out, hope they are right, others saying that we'll all get a second wave in our winter, others saying we are going through this for two years.
It's hard to know what to believe.
My only intent is to source any news and see where it's coming from. Social media like Twitter is full of lies so I'll take no information as gospel from there. I like the CDC in the US as a news source. No crap on there, just advice.

Agreed on where to source your news.

It's not about what to believe though. Scientists don't know enough about the virus to be definitive, so we are going to get a range of opinions. As the science gets better, we'll be able to be more definitive.

It's very easy for example now to say that noisy locations with poor ventilation are a prime way the virus transmits as we have the evidence to back it up. It's not so easy to say how well the virus transmits outside of those environments.

weldoninhio · 27-05-2020 01:15PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I read that if retail want to open they must make times available for the vulnerable . I will try to find it again

Found it .

https://www.thejournal.ie/phase-2-covid-whats-new-5107812-May2020/

Those who can work from home will continue to do so.

The retail outlets which are to reopen must develop safeguards for their staff and their prospective customers. They must consider the following:

social distancing compliance
hygiene and cleaning
plans for medically vulnerable or pregnant people
extended opening hours to enable social distancing

Phase 2 doesn't start until June 8th. :rolleyes:

What Username Guidelines · 27-05-2020 01:21PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Who knows it might be burning out, it wasn't a theory I believed a few weeks ago but its hard to look past it more countries experience the same results when lifting restrictions

Same, I do wonder though if it is the case that it's (hopefully) burning out or has a lifespan, how long will it take people to realise it's going by itself and not because of the measures implemented. Like previous pandemics, waves seem to last a few months, then go down to background levels (dont fully disappear) before surging back, or disappearing completely. I guess keeping some level of social distancing in place along with an increased level of hygiene may be enough to quickly notice and stamp out a new outbreak. Italy and Spain are fascinating to see cases really decline along a similar timeline even with restrictions eased.

podgeandrodge · 27-05-2020 01:29PM

WHO rules for masks:

Before putting on a mask, clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
Cover mouth and nose with mask and make sure there are no gaps between your face and the mask.
Avoid touching the mask while using it; if you do, clean your hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
Replace the mask with a new one as soon as it is damp and do not re-use single-use masks.
To remove the mask: remove it from behind (do not touch the front of mask); discard immediately in a closed bin; clean hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.
Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

The amount of people I've seen with masks where they pull them aside to scratch their nose or whatever. And that's just casually passing them by. I'd say the vast majority of masks are next to useless, if not increasing the dangers to the wearer because of all the fidgeting.

Lucky that community transmission is now practically zero even without having made them mandatory.

eagle eye · 27-05-2020 01:30PM

Sometimes you do your very best to organise things and then the idiot sibling sneakily arranges a birthday party for their 1 year old child. My wife asked me what I thought and I said it's not a good idea and she agreed.
Then we find out that she, my sister, pretty much ordered my sister in law to bring her kids and my 75 year old mother and 79 year old father. I'm livid, I had a conversation with my mother and advised her not to go but I'm not very hopeful that she'll stay at home even though it sounded like she was in agreement with me.
This trip is a 40 km car ride, my parents will be in the car with three kids and an adult breathing the same air.
I can't fully trace the movement of my nephews and niece either but I do know that they have visited the home of cousins on the other side of the family whose father works in a hospital.

igCorcaigh · 27-05-2020 01:31PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Same, I do wonder though if it is the case that it's (hopefully) burning out or has a lifespan, how long will it take people to realise it's going by itself and not because of the measures implemented. Like previous pandemics, waves seem to last a few months, then go down to background levels (dont fully disappear) before surging back, or disappearing completely. I guess keeping some level of social distancing in place along with an increased level of hygiene may be enough to quickly notice and stamp out a new outbreak. Italy and Spain are fascinating to see cases really decline along a similar timeline even with restrictions eased.

Perhaps it just takes time for the epidemic to grow again? Remember how long it took for the infection to grow in Europe, possibly from January, but then increased very suddenly.

iamwhoiam · 27-05-2020 01:31PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

Phase 2 doesn't start until June 8th. :rolleyes:

Well aware thanks . Do you think the recommendations only apply to June openings .

US2 · 27-05-2020 01:41PM

I'm a big drinker. Go to the pub 3 times a week. Couldnt really care when they open the only restriction I want lifted is the essential travel

What Username Guidelines · 27-05-2020 01:43PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Perhaps it just takes time for the epidemic to grow again? Remember how long it took for the infection to grow in Europe, possibly from January, but then increased very suddenly.

Yep, perhaps

FixdePitchmark · 27-05-2020 02:14PM

Seen kids together out playing from different households - I've lost track of where we are at this point.

Is that permitted ?

Strazdas · 27-05-2020 02:17PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

Cross-immunity, maybe, maybe not. There are indications in at least 3 papers of it (that I know of) but no conclusive proof yet.

I think the biggest part in halting the spread has been better understanding of how it spreads and people adjusting their behaviour accordingly:

- keeping distance
- minimising social contacts
- masks in many places
- avoiding closed environments with many people
- improving ventilation in enclosed environments
- being outside more
- working from home where possible
- test, trace, isolate practices being carried out

All the tracing reports that I've read so far have traced the big spreading events back to crowded indoor places with lots of talking, singing and shouting going on. The secondary infections are mostly in households, where someone from a super spreader event infected a family member. Then again, the secondary household attack rates are very low for what should be a very contagious virus (10-15% symptomatic cases, lower for asymptomatic but too lazy to fine the paper stating that). Transmission outside of households and enclosed environments is quite rare.

One of the really strange aspects is how it very quickly infects some people and yet many others in the same location don't contract it. One wonders if certain types of people are far more susceptible to catching it than others.

weldoninhio · 27-05-2020 02:17PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Well aware thanks . Do you think the recommendations only apply to June openings .

phase-2-covid-whats-new-5107812-May2020 is the link you sent. So yes, the reccomendations you sent apply from June 8th.

Plumbthedepths · 27-05-2020 02:18PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Seen kids together out playing from different households - I've lost track of where we are at this point.

Is that permitted ?

More importantly do you think you can stop kids being kids?

ceadaoin. · 27-05-2020 02:20PM

fr336 wrote: »

Have people forgotten the incubation period can be up to two weeks? I keep looking at posts wanting to be positive but unfortunately this virus has given us bad news from the start. But maybe it is somehow in decline, we can only hope..

Can be up to 2 weeks but those are a minority. Vast majority of people start showing symptoms within 5 days. Georgia has been open for over 4 weeks now and no increase. My own state has been in phase one since early May and deaths and hospitalisations are still falling rapidly. new cases aren't declining but that is because testing capacity has vastly increased. One drive up site can do up to 10,000 a day. Going into phase 2 on Friday which is bars, cinemas, bowling alleys,pools etc opening so we will see but I think it's on the decline pretty much everywhere where the peak was in April.

FixdePitchmark · 27-05-2020 02:20PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

More importantly do you think you can stop kids being kids?

Well my kids don't do it. So yes.

That is what we have all done for last 2 months

stephenjmcd · 27-05-2020 02:24PM

Harris tells the Dáil that R is now indicated to be between 0.4 & 0.5

Plumbthedepths · 27-05-2020 02:28PM

FixdePitchmark wrote: »

Well my kids don't do it. So yes.

That is what we have all done for last 2 months

Fair play to you, but unless you confine children or fill them with terror it's impossible to keep them separate.
I have been travelling to work everyday since this started plenty of kids and teenagers mixing from what I can see. Yet the virus is suppressed in the community with the numbers of infected dropping yet the levels of fear still constant.

FixdePitchmark · 27-05-2020 02:34PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Harris tells the Dáil that R is now indicated to be between 0.4 & 0.5

So 5 days ago we had 115 cases - they transmitted to 57 people
4 days ago 76 cases = 38 in 1 day
3 days ago 57 cases = 28.5 in 2 days
2 days ago 59 cases = 29.5 in 3 days
1 day ago 37 cases = 18.5 in 4 days

Something like that is incubation average = 5 = and R = .5

That sound right ?
20 and below 10 next big steps.

FixdePitchmark · 27-05-2020 02:35PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Fair play to you, but unless you confine children or fill them with terror it's impossible to keep them separate.
I have been travelling to work everyday since this started plenty of kids and teenagers mixing from what I can see. Yet the virus is suppressed in the community with the numbers of infected dropping yet the levels of fear still constant.

How is it impossible - you sound like the parents are children as opposed to the children.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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