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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 819 ✭✭✭EDit


    Looking at the global figures - daily new cases have not moved much in the last 6 weeks however daily deaths have dropped about 40%. I wonder have we become better at testing and globally the case load is falling or we are just detecting a higher %, or are we better at treating and globally more people are recovering.

    Or it could be that the pandemic has moved on to countries with slightly dubious death figures. Russia, for example, has a phenomenally low number of deaths. If you compare Russia with Spain, they have a similar total number of infections, a similar rate of testing, but Spain’s death total is nearly 10 times higher. Can we really put that down to being better at treating?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    EDit wrote: »
    Or it could be that the pandemic has moved on to countries with slightly dubious death figures. Russia, for example, has a phenomenally low number of deaths. If you compare Russia with Spain, they have a similar total number of infections, a similar rate of testing, but Spain’s death total is nearly 10 times higher. Can we really put that down to being better at treating?

    We don't need a vaccine, just lots of Vodka


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Nobody wearing masks today and things are getting busy again. Wont be long before wave 2 hits.
    Are you concerned or just hoping for a "I told you so" moment? No evidence of wave 2 anywhere else.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Our cases seem to be dropping every day, which is all good. I'm kind of hoping there's some truth in the prediction that fella made over a week ago. But do we have any measures at airports, any airport checks, quarantine for residents and incoming visitors? What's the point of having our cases drop but allowing visitors in? That's what got us in this mess in the first place.
    That presumes the arrivals are coming from places which have never had the virus nor any restrictions. If we're heading for a very low numbers of cases why do you imagine other countries would not be similar?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Are you concerned or just hoping for a "I told you so" moment? No evidence of wave 2 anywhere else.

    Late Autumn is when the next wave will come. Heat reduces transmission of coronavirus like all virus. It's still there but not as prevalent mid summer.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Late Autumn is when the next wave will come. Heat reduces transmission of coronavirus like all virus. It's still there but not as prevalent mid summer.

    Can you back up your claim with evidence?
    The link below is one of many that I found in direct contradiction to your claim.


    https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-heat


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,248 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Are you concerned or just hoping for a "I told you so" moment? No evidence of wave 2 anywhere else.

    Its very possible that this is the second wave . Based on no scientific evidence and just a hunch but its possible that the first wave arrived in Dec/Jan and then the 2 wave in march . I know very many who were sick in December with symptoms and also know of one care home that had an unusually high rate of death in January . Who know , maybe not but it is a possibility that needs to be looked at


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Late Autumn is when the next wave will come. Heat reduces transmission of coronavirus like all virus. It's still there but not as prevalent mid summer.
    Even if it does, it will be here's COVID-19 back again, let's get our testing and health systems and other plans into action ASAP.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,956 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    The horrible thing is the so called 2nd wave might not be as bad because most of the vulnerable have already died


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The horrible thing is the so called 2nd wave might not be as bad because most of the vulnerable have already died
    We'll be so much more ready, both personally and in all other areas.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    iamwhoiam wrote: »
    Its very possible that this is the second wave . Based on no scientific evidence and just a hunch but its possible that the first wave arrived in Dec/Jan and then the 2 wave in march . I know very many who were sick in December with symptoms and also know of one care home that had an unusually high rate of death in January . Who know , maybe not but it is a possibility that needs to be looked at

    There is also a lab confirmed peak of influenza in Dec /Jan, that matches perfectly with the peak in flu like illnesses at this time. Wheras the March peak matches SARS-CoV-2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,530 ✭✭✭boardise


    wadacrack wrote: »
    More testing, we were playing catch up due to a late response in most countries. Its why the death rate % is lower in countries that acted early along with effective lockdown measures


    I came across this article y'day which gives some context for the slower response referred to above - I had not been aware that these attitudes were circulating at a high level and probably influencing the nature of the early reactions around much of Europe..


    https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-05-19/how-europe-underestimated-the-danger-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Arghus wrote: »
    But that is EXACTLY what happened in Lombardy, in Madrid, in New York - places where the virus took hold before restrictions were put in place. Hospitals were overwhelmed with Covid patients, cemeteries were literally full.

    It's not sh*te, it was reality in those places - it's what happened.

    But it hasn’t happened here. The curve has flattened.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭Polar101


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Are you concerned or just hoping for a "I told you so" moment? No evidence of wave 2 anywhere else.

    Well, is there any evidence that wave 1 is over anywhere (except maybe NZ, AUS, SLO, SVK?).

    Obviously most people wouldn't mind if there wasn't a second wave, but we definitely need to be prepared in case it does happen. The argument that there was a wave during the winter doesn't seem to be particularly convincing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,997 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    is_that_so wrote: »
    We'll be so much more ready, both personally and in all other areas.

    There are two ways to look at it...

    On the plus side the health service should be better prepared and there may be better treatments which might reduce the death rate and seriousness of symptoms.

    On the downside will the public be as compliant in a second lockdown? While lives come before the economy, the two are intertwined. A second full lockdown could be beyond catastrophic for economies.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,749 ✭✭✭uli84


    the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Dr Ronan Glynn, said that the cancer screening won’t commence for the “foreseeable future”.

    If this is true I’m seriously left speechless. I hope this gets questioned, vital service stopped just like that.

    https://www.labour.ie/news/2020/05/19/plan-needed-to-restart-cancer-screening/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,065 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    The government will be like Oprah giving out all the austerity


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,997 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Brazil is in serious trouble, they can't even say they are near the peak because case numbers continue to increase day on day.

    They looked set to replicate the United States and may end up being being even worse hit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,004 ✭✭✭Hmmzis




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    uli84 wrote: »
    the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Dr Ronan Glynn, said that the cancer screening won’t commence for the “foreseeable future”.

    If this is true I’m seriously left speechless. I hope this gets questioned, vital service stopped just like that.

    https://www.labour.ie/news/2020/05/19/plan-needed-to-restart-cancer-screening/

    Yeah he said it on morning Ireland yesterday. Screening is vital. He said screening only picks up asymptomatic cases, but sure isnt that the whole point of screening and early intervention


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    EDit wrote: »
    Or it could be that the pandemic has moved on to countries with slightly dubious death figures. Russia, for example, has a phenomenally low number of deaths. If you compare Russia with Spain, they have a similar total number of infections, a similar rate of testing, but Spain’s death total is nearly 10 times higher. Can we really put that down to being better at treating?
    Putin is getting slaughtered at home over his handling of this. His approval rating is the lowest it has ever been, which is something amazing in a de facto dictatorship.

    I expect the honest test results are an attempt to make it look like Putin is doing something and the extremely low death rates are trying to paint a picture that Russia is strong and winning where the rest of the West couldn't.

    A number of doctors who have spoken out in Russia against a lack of PPE and other health service failings have all "mysteriously" fallen out of a high window of their hospitals.

    We won't know the true numbers in Russia for years; until some historian starts poking around in statistics and trying to match up reported death numbers.
    bilston wrote:
    Brazil is in serious trouble, they can't even say they are near the peak because case numbers continue to increase day on day.

    They looked set to replicate the United States and may end up being being even worse hit.
    Bolsanaro is a genuine, full-on psychopath.

    He is focussing healthcare on the wealthy and allow the virus to run rampant amongst the poorer of Brazil. He considers large-scale deaths in poorer communities to be a good thing, he considers them vermin who need their numbers culled.

    While Putin is fighting to hold onto a dictatorship, Bolsanaro is using this as an opportunity to build one.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah he said it on morning Ireland yesterday. Screening is vital. He said screening only picks up asymptomatic cases, but sure isnt that the whole point of screening and early intervention

    There is strong evidence of groupthink going on at the moment, which is concerning. No one wants to be seen as the person who breaks ranks on the prevailing message, and engage in all sorts of logical loops such as above to stay on message


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,749 ✭✭✭uli84


    Article from 30 April

    National Screening Services (NSS) programmes are now putting plans together for a safe restart of screening “in so far as that is possible”.
    Work is being completed to that end but depends on Government guidelines, due shortly, according to a statement from the service.

    shortly (?)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    They may be rarely hospitalised with flu, but they are significant spreaders of it (unlike Covid 19, it seems). You can't spread it if you're immune from vaccination. Them being immune protects the people that would be hospitalised with it.

    I don't know why this belief is so prevalent. Perhaps it's a case of "If you repeat a lie often enough it becomes the truth."

    There are substantial studies that indicate children have a similar attack rate¹ and viral load² as adults.

    Children may have played a smaller role in the transmission of CoViD-19 to date because with schools closed they were not circulating in the community and were less likely to be the initial case in any cluster but it is an unfounded jump from that to state that they are any less infectious than adults.

    (2) cautions "The viral loads observed in the present study, combined with earlier findings of similar attack rate between children and adults, suggest that transmission potential in schools and kindergartens should be evaluated using the same assumptions of infectivity as for adults ... Based on the absence of any statistical evidence for a different viral load profile in children found in the present study, we have to caution against an unlimited re-opening of schools and kindergartens in the present situation, with a widely susceptible population and the necessity to keep transmission rates low via non-pharmaceutical interventions. Children may be as infectious as adults."

    ¹ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext

    ² https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmin/user_upload/microsites/m_cc05/virologie-ccm/dateien_upload/Weitere_Dateien/analysis-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,749 ✭✭✭uli84


    Yeah he said it on morning Ireland yesterday. Screening is vital. He said screening only picks up asymptomatic cases, but sure isnt that the whole point of screening and early intervention

    Are you for real? wow, we really have idiots in charge, scary, makes you wonder if he received any education in his life.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0520/1139477-hibergene-diagnostics-covid-19-test/

    Very interesting news here, tested in the Mater and postive results in 30 mins, negative in 60. Now has CE mark


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    uli84 wrote: »
    Are you for real? wow, we really have idiots in charge, scary, makes you wonder if he received any education in his life.

    Yup, interview clips available on rte Twitter page still.

    He said if people are worried they should visit their GP, but sure people only visit a GP when they've symptoms. That wont help with early detection


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0520/1139477-hibergene-diagnostics-covid-19-test/

    Very interesting news here, tested in the Mater and postive results in 30 mins, negative in 60. Now has CE mark

    That sounds very positive

    Should hopefully be able to get widely produced and get test times right down

    Might help in same day test, result and then contact tracing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    PSNI not taking any chances. Good thing AGS got some masks. I don't think we have any dedicated covid custody centres. Probably makes a lot of sense. Reminded me of breaking bad.

    513576.png

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fewer-deaths-for-third-week-in-a-row-8b6x9lgp5


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0520/1139477-hibergene-diagnostics-covid-19-test/

    Very interesting news here, tested in the Mater and postive results in 30 mins, negative in 60. Now has CE mark

    It appears to be a small company. Will need to partner with a good manufacturer to roll this out on any scale


This discussion has been closed.
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