Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

19-05-2020 07:10PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Have the HSE done or started to do a statistically based test survey on the general population (say 500 or so cases randomly selected) to see the approx % number that have it still in the general population?
This would be useful in determining how far we are along in removing it from the country.

It would be a good idea to do some random testing on a weekly basis. Would need a good 5,000 samples each week to be able to detect any changes however given the low level currently in the community

Eod100 · 19-05-2020 07:11PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yeah I'm not arguing

Just dont know how you'd go about deciding

Ah yeah, more talking it out loud to myself, first sign of madness :P Yeah hard to see how it would be practical or enforceable tbh.

retro:electro · 19-05-2020 07:18PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

On a brighter note, we closed one of our covid wards in the hospital I work in today due to decrease in numbers in overall numbers. We are doing a lot better than we were even a month ago

Wow and with a 300% increase in cases over the weekend, as you declared on another thread.

Not bad.

s1ippy · 19-05-2020 07:21PM

No questions in the briefing today about the significant increase in suspected cases in hospitals today. The journalists are just going for shock headlines and digs at the NPHET crowd now like.

ZX7R · 19-05-2020 07:22PM

Arghus wrote: »

To be honest, I partly blame the wishy-washy approach by the DoH and the government - more or less, "sure wear a mask if you like."

Easy way around doh recommendation. retail business should just make a face coverings mandatory for entrance and use of there services.

prunudo · 19-05-2020 07:22PM

Given the shambles of testing in the early stages I wouldn't get too fixed about where 51 cases correlates with the start of the crisis. Just from my own anecdotal evidence, anyone who I've heard of who had it were all at the start. Haven't heard of any new cases in the last 6 weeks.

Rob A. Bank · 19-05-2020 07:23PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be a good idea to do some random testing on a weekly basis. Would need a good 5,000 samples each week to be able to detect any changes however given the low level currently in the community

Harvard Health Publishing from the Harvard Medical School list the following cornucopia of symptoms for Covid-19. Their COVID-19 basics page has useful up to date information on the virus.

"Some people infected with the virus have no symptoms.

When the virus does cause symptoms, common ones include fever, body ache, dry cough, fatigue, chills, headache, sore throat, loss of appetite, and loss of smell. In some people, COVID-19 causes more severe symptoms like high fever, severe cough, and shortness of breath, which often indicates pneumonia.

People with COVID-19 are also experiencing neurological symptoms, gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, or both. These may occur with or without respiratory symptoms.

For example, COVID-19 affects brain function in some people. Specific neurological symptoms seen in people with COVID-19 include loss of smell, inability to taste, muscle weakness, tingling or numbness in the hands and feet, dizziness, confusion, delirium, seizures, and stroke.

In addition, some people have gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, such as loss of appetite, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain or discomfort associated with COVID-19. These symptoms might start before other symptoms such as fever, body ache, and cough. The virus that causes COVID-19 has also been detected in stool, which reinforces the importance of hand washing after every visit to the bathroom and regularly disinfecting bathroom fixtures."

Yet we only test those with fever, cough and shortness of breath, with slightly expanded symptoms if you have been in close contact with someone with proven Covid-19 ie. nasal symptoms, sore throat and wheezing.

The Covid-19 virus targets all cells in the body with Ace-2 receptors.

We must be missing a lot of infections with these very limited reasons for testing, while totally ignoring the recently well documented neurological and gastrointestinal symptoms.

This must surely cast doubt on our cases figures.

19-05-2020 07:31PM

Birdie Num Num wrote: »

That’s 51 new cases. Going in the right direction yes but there are thousands of cases still in the community. We are about the same amount of active cases as we were at the end of March. That can’t be ignored.

In March there were likely hundreds of people who arrived in the country from or for holidays/business who were totally unaware they had the virus and spread all over the country, now, every new confirmed case is linked to a known cluster and next to zero people arriving in the country

kenmc · 19-05-2020 07:31PM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

I decided to steer clear of Aldi and Lidl from the beginning. Their layouts and attitude just don't lend themselves to social distancing or even common courtesy in my experience.

Tesco nutgrove I've never seen a queue less than the whole shopping centre wide, all the way to Penneys.

Arghus · 19-05-2020 07:34PM

ZX7R wrote: »

Easy way around doh recommendation. retail business should just make a face coverings mandatory for entrance and use of there services.

Yup, but a lot of retail businesses won't do it unless it's mandatory - it might cost them some customers, takes a bit of effort and requires the capacity to make a hard decision.

What Username Guidelines · 19-05-2020 07:38PM

Arghus wrote: »

Yup, but a lot of retail businesses won't do it unless it's mandatory - it might cost them some customers, takes a bit of effort and requires the capacity to make a hard decision.

It’s a shame really, if everyone stuck on a mask you could actually almost eradicate it in a couple of months. Apart from the whole open borders and only testing specific symptoms and delayed results that is.

19-05-2020 07:39PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Wow and with a 300% increase in cases over the weekend, as you declared on another thread.

Not bad.

I'm happy that there are less patients in hospital due to covid. My hospital would still have a large amount of covid patients but it certainly brightened up my day

cherryghost · 19-05-2020 07:41PM

Ireland has had one of the lowest Covid case rate since the start of May in the entire world, let alone EU for a moderate total case count. It is really encouraging to see. What is more encouraging is that 500/1000 cases in the last week alone were isolated to meat plants, and rest seems confined to healthcare/nursing home facilities, and we have more broad symptoms for testing and yet see no marked increase in cases.

To me, the untrained eye, the virus is under control here and we are on the verge of a round 1 victory against it. I think the phases set out should be reviewed and compressed given the clear-as-daylight information we have got in the past 3 weeks. A lot of ohter counties have opened BAU for many facilities we have yet to open, and there is no discernable increase in cases in those regions. I (mostly) commend the actions taken by the government and the emergency teams, but having these extremely slow rollouts for the next 2 months+ seems a bit pointless at this stage.

What Username Guidelines · 19-05-2020 07:46PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Harvard Health Publishing from the Harvard Medical School list the following cornucopia of symptoms for Covid-19. Their COVID-19 basics page has useful up to date information on the virus.

Yet we only test those with fever, cough and shortness of breath, with slightly expanded symptoms if you have been in close contact with someone with proven Covid-19 ie. nasal symptoms, sore throat and wheezing.

The Covid-19 virus targets all cells in the body with Ace-2 receptors.

We must be missing a lot of infections with these very limited reasons for testing, while totally ignoring the recently well documented neurological and gastrointestinal symptoms.

This must surely cast doubt on our cases figures.

Looking at that list of symptoms, it really is an absolutely mental virus. I had the covid toes thing back in mid March before I knew it was related or a possible symptom. Nothing else symptoms-wise at all. Just massively swollen and sore toes. Sore enough that I would have gone to the GP in normal times but didn’t want to bother them in these times.

Even in Spain where they were pushed right to the edge in terms of health system, they reckon only 5% of the population has it (13% in Madrid) from antibody testing. You’d wonder how many people get it and fight it off so easily that they don’t even develop antibodies?

We’ve got 11k+ confirmed cases in Dublin which is ~1%, given the strict criteria until recently I wonder would Dublin be at 10% in reality, with missed symptomatic cases and asymptomatic cases? Either way, any % of the population becoming “immune” (maybe) especially healthcare workers, should in theory lessen spread in another wave.

retro:electro · 19-05-2020 07:50PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm happy that there are less patients in hospital due to covid. My hospital would still have a large amount of covid patients but it certainly brightened up my day

Okay

Arghus · 19-05-2020 07:51PM

s1ippy wrote: »

No questions in the briefing today about the significant increase in suspected cases in hospitals today. The journalists are just going for shock headlines and digs at the NPHET crowd now like.

Some, though not all of the journalists, just look for where the potential aggro is constantly.

Zara King asks about hairdressers, weddings and potential vaccines that Tony has been personally working on himself. Haven't seen her in a few days, maybe they've put her back to making the coffee in the office.

Azatadine · 19-05-2020 07:53PM

Arghus wrote: »

Some, though not all of the journalists, just look for where the potential aggro is constantly.

Zara King asks about hairdressers, weddings and potential vaccines that Tony has been personally working on himself. Haven't seen her in a few days, maybe they've put her back to making the coffee in the office.

I'd say the day that she was smiling and laughing at the briefing didn't help. Came across very poorly. That was around the time of our peak deaths I think.

Peanut Butter Jelly · 19-05-2020 07:56PM

cherryghost wrote: »

Ireland has had one of the lowest Covid case rate since the start of May in the entire world, let alone EU for a moderate total case count. It is really encouraging to see. What is more encouraging is that 500/1000 cases in the last week alone were isolated to meat plants, and rest seems confined to healthcare/nursing home facilities, and we have more broad symptoms for testing and yet see no marked increase in cases.

To me, the untrained eye, the virus is under control here and we are on the verge of a round 1 victory against it. I think the phases set out should be reviewed and compressed given the clear-as-daylight information we have got in the past 3 weeks. A lot of ohter counties have opened BAU for many facilities we have yet to open, and there is no discernable increase in cases in those regions. I (mostly) commend the actions taken by the government and the emergency teams, but having these extremely slow rollouts for the next 2 months+ seems a bit pointless at this stage.

I'll openly admit I'm probably a bit too worried about this virus given my own situation at home, but I would be happy to keep it at the 3 week intervals that we have at the minute if it meant we'd not have to regress back a phase in the future.

Again, that's just me probably being slightly pessimistic, but I'd rather be safe than potentially be sorry

VonLuck · 19-05-2020 08:00PM

Blaze420 wrote: »

The CMO came out today and basically stated that the virus is pretty much eliminated in community settings - in turn that means the risk of infection is extremely low ergo we accelerate a return to some sort of normal business.
Dragging the balls out of it until August helps nobody.

I believe the construction is a big area to be monitored closely. I was out for a walk today and saw a big group of workers outside a Spar having their lunches huddled together.

If that doesn't result in a surge in cases over the next couple of weeks then I don't see why the future phases couldn't be implemented sooner.

An Ciarraioch · 19-05-2020 08:01PM

You would think two weeks would serve just as well, in that the effects of the first week could be analysed in the second, but we'll have a better idea of that moving into phase two.

Eod100 · 19-05-2020 08:01PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Did nobody ask De Gascun about testing numbers?

Some figures here. https://twitter.com/juneshannon/status/1262795267503525889

Looks like reduction in number of tests compared to last week, think it was in region of 45k then?

Eod100 · 19-05-2020 08:02PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

You would think two weeks would serve just as well, in that the effects of the first week could be analysed in the second, but we'll have a better idea of that moving into phase two.

I think it's 2 weeks, cos symptoms could take a while to show and then to allow time to test and report on results.

An Ciarraioch · 19-05-2020 08:05PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Some figures here. https://twitter.com/juneshannon/status/1262795267503525889

Looks like reduction in number of tests compared to last week, think it was in region of 45k then?

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1262794379984592899

Kermit.de.frog · 19-05-2020 08:05PM

cherryghost wrote: »

Ireland has had one of the lowest Covid case rate since the start of May in the entire world, let alone EU for a moderate total case count. It is really encouraging to see. What is more encouraging is that 500/1000 cases in the last week alone were isolated to meat plants, and rest seems confined to healthcare/nursing home facilities, and we have more broad symptoms for testing and yet see no marked increase in cases.

To me, the untrained eye, the virus is under control here and we are on the verge of a round 1 victory against it. I think the phases set out should be reviewed and compressed given the clear-as-daylight information we have got in the past 3 weeks. A lot of ohter counties have opened BAU for many facilities we have yet to open, and there is no discernable increase in cases in those regions. I (mostly) commend the actions taken by the government and the emergency teams, but having these extremely slow rollouts for the next 2 months+ seems a bit pointless at this stage.

On first glance what you say might make sense. I think unfortunately the speed at which it can all be undone in relation to said control means, for now, it's not a viable risk we can take.

At a later date as more countries gain control again it becomes more attractive for us.

My biggest concern is the UK and our exposure to their sense of exceptionalism which has, of course, extended to the virus.

Will they get their outbreak under control? Doesn't seem that way and soon people will be able to fly in to the north come here and avoid our quarantine.

They are the biggest risk to us. No other country in Europe has the same risk right now. Everyone else has things under control and so do their closest neighbors. Except our neighbor.

Tony EH · 19-05-2020 08:09PM

Personally I'd keep Phase 1 as it is and review, at the end of it, whether shortening subsequent phase lengths is viable or not. With the rapidity of infection from Covid (remember this spread from China across the globe in no time at all) we could be back at square one if we act in haste.

Softly, softly, catchy monkey.

mloc123 · 19-05-2020 08:14PM

Arghus wrote: »

Some, though not all of the journalists, just look for where the potential aggro is constantly.

Zara King asks about hairdressers, weddings and potential vaccines that Tony has been personally working on himself. Haven't seen her in a few days, maybe they've put her back to making the coffee in the office.

Is Zara getting married this year? I remember the day they announced the initial restrictions, was it a limit of 100 people indoors and 500 outdoors or similar and her first question was... what about weddings with 100 guests

Plumbthedepths · 19-05-2020 08:14PM

With the numbers on a downward path, the justification for keeping the country in lockdown and destroying the economy even further is evaporating.

eagle eye · 19-05-2020 08:16PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

My biggest concern is the UK and our exposure to their sense of exceptionalism which has, of course, extended to the virus.

My biggest concern is the large amount of Irish buffoons who think they'll be alright. I'm predicting we'll be in a full on second wave by mid August. Our government not doing the right things and those buffoons being front and centre in responsibility for it.

Eod100 · 19-05-2020 08:16PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1262794379984592899

Ah yeah, it's not a bad thing as such. Can only do as many tests are referred so a positive sigh.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 19-05-2020 08:17PM

This is shocking. Really short-sighted. It was hard enough to get people to take me seriously when I suspected cancer and that was when screening programmes and clinics were running as normal. How many people will get fobbed off now because cancer screening isn’t happening? This will cost lives. :mad::(

https://twitter.com/morningireland/status/1262646045743423488?s=21

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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