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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • #5132
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Just a reminder that the county figures are as of Thursday, so it'll be Monday's briefing before today's stats appear.


  • #5133
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    I just read the report, it’s making an assumption that viral load could be similar in children and adults. The rate of children getting hospitalised or showing symptoms is very low so hard to catch enough sample data to come to that conclusion.

    Interestingly the report mentions an Italian town/village where mass testing was carried out. Up to 50% of its residents were asymptomatic. Imagine if doctors here actually used that data or did a similar testing sample here...what would our death rate/hospitalisation rate actually be and how could such severe restrictions be justified.
    It is making no assumption that viral loads could be similar in children and adults. It has taken the viral load measured for 3712 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients and analysed it by age group finding the overwhelming conclusion from the three post hoc testing methods is that no significant differences in viral load exists between any subgroups in either categorization.

    Quote "Based on the absence of any statistical evidence for a different viral load profile in children found in the present study, we have to caution against an unlimited re-opening of schools and kindergartens in the present situation, with a widely susceptible population and the necessity to keep transmission rates low via non-pharmaceutical interventions. Children may be as infectious as adults."


  • #5134
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    It seems intuitive, that this is the way things will progress from now on. Mini outbreaks popping up hear and there from time to time only showing up when a few people start showing symptoms. With our slow testing and poor contact tracing, these will be bigger than they need to be.

    90 cases in Cork on the 13th out of a country wide total of 159.


  • #5135
    branie2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,325 ✭✭✭✭branie2


    RIP, the 15 people who died


  • #5136
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    doctor Matt O toole on the TV3 minutes ago said over 50% of people wit covid will not show symptoms, so if we consider 50% have no symptoms and at one stage over 93% of deaths were above 65 and with underlying issues, you can see why people are pissed off now 2/3rds of which are in care. If 100 people get the flu, 100% will bloody know they have it and the elderly can succumb to death due to underlying issues.

    bizarre stuff!


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  • #5137
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Ffs. Why can’t people get this into their head. ITALY ARE AHEAD OF US WHEN IT COMES TO THE LOCKDOWN.
    that means they will be ahead of us in reopening their country compared to us.
    It’s not rocket science.

    Inward foreign travel is allowed today in Ireland or am I mistaken?


  • #5138
    s1ippy
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    Mr.S wrote: »
    For the most part people are following restrictions.

    Plus everything is closed. Some idiots might meet up at their gaff but for the most part the streets are quiet.
    Not true, I was dropping shopping to relatives today and I saw thousands of people on the way. Not even exaggerating. Only two people had masks or face coverings. Many, many people age 70+, plenty of obese people. Didn't fill me with hope, it disappointed me no end because it can only mean bad outcomes in the future.
    timsey tiger wrote: »
    It seems intuitive, that this is the way things will progress from now on. Mini outbreaks popping up hear and there from time to time only showing up when a few people start showing symptoms. With our slow testing and poor contact tracing, these will be bigger than they need to be.

    90 cases in Cork on the 13th out of a country wide total of 159.
    Where'd you read that? Can't find it when I search.


  • #5139
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,505 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    boardise wrote:
    Just wait for the alarmists to hyperventilate if the case figure goes back into three digits tomorrow.


    There aren't many 'alarmists' as you put it.
    The numbers are coming down which is good and a one day spike won't make a difference. These numbers are for the lockdown period where people have learned a great deal about social distancing.
    Where we'll be in six weeks time is what's important now. If we put the right measures in place then things should be good but if we just relax everything then I fear we'll get a very bad second wave.
    And this is not what we want, as bad as one lockdown has been for the economy a second wave and lockdown would do far more damage.
    I want to see quarantine for all incomers and facemasks as a must not a choice. That way we should reach zero cases and stay there.


  • #5140
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,098 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    s1ippy wrote: »
    Not true, I was dropping shopping to relatives today and I saw thousands of people on the way. Not even exaggerating. Only two people had masks or face coverings. Many, many people age 70+, plenty of obese people. Didn't fill me with hope, it disappointed me no end because it can only mean bad outcomes in the future.


    Where'd you read that? Can't find it when I search.

    Just an anecdote then. Two people walked past here today and no more than 5 vehicles, most of which were commercial vehicles. I spoke to three people by phone and none of them have been out of the house except for walks.


  • #5141
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    eagle eye wrote: »
    There aren't many 'alarmists'
    I want to see quarantine for all incomers .

    The thread is full of alarmists. So how long would you like Ireland quaranting incomers for? 6 months? A year , 5 years , 10 years?


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  • #5142
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    eagle eye wrote: »
    I want to see quarantine for all incomers and facemasks as a must not a choice. That way we should reach zero cases and stay there.

    I don't want to see mandatory masks everywhere, it should be targeted. Not out walking on the street, and not doing a shop. The virus is under control right now without mandatory masks. Fine making it mandatory on public transport, where people are cooked up with each other for a significant period, or where people cannot social distance.

    Social distancing, where it can be done, has reduced the virus transmission to a fraction of where it was, and the curve has been flattened, allowing the health service to cope.


  • #5143
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    Just an anecdote then. Two people walked past here today and no more than 5 vehicles, mist of which were commercial vehicles. I spoke to three people by phone and none of them have been out of the house except for walks.

    I have to say as i’m out and about a lot because of my work most people are going by the rules.


  • #5144
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    But we're all gonna die!

    6034073


  • #5145
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,604 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    eagle eye wrote: »
    I want to see quarantine for all incomers and facemasks as a must not a choice. That way we should reach zero cases and stay there.

    Due to economic and political considerations you are unlikely to see it for all incomers- people coming from one of the worst affected countries in Europe will be exempt from quarantining.


  • #5146
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    CruelSummer wrote: »
    .
    .
    Interestingly the report mentions an Italian town/village where mass testing was carried out. Up to 50% of its residents were asymptomatic. Imagine if doctors here actually used that data or did a similar testing sample here...what would our death rate/hospitalisation rate actually be and how could such severe restrictions be justified.

    I think it has been generally accepted that there is a significant cohort of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers of SARS-CoV-2 as confirmed by the Italian, Icelandic and other mass testing.

    Perhaps paradoxically this may increase the need for restrictions as people may infect others without knowing they were carrying the virus.

    It has been showy that asymptomatic and presymptomatic carriers can infect others. e.g. the most recent example in South Korea where over 100 new cases have been traced back to one presymptomatic carrier.

    If half of those are asymptomatic and each infects four others, then there are an additional 200 new cases within the next week or so. Followed by an additional 400 new cases within the next week or so following that. etc...

    If people were not contagious until after they displayed symptoms it would be much easier to contain CoViD-19.

    SARS-CoV-2 sits in a 'sweetspot' of replication rate, pre/asymptomatic transmission and mortality that make it very problematic.


  • #5147
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    owlbethere wrote: »
    If you don't like it you are free to get on a plane and go somewhere that is more 'open'.

    Childish answer tbh.


  • #5148
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Due to economic and political considerations you are unlikely to see it for all incomers- people coming from one of the worst affected countries in Europe will be exempt from quarantining.
    The Common Travel Area does not require us to exempt UK citizens from Irish quarantine requirements provided they also apply to Irish citizens coming back to the country (as they should).

    The Common Travel Area did not prevent the UK authorities from singling out Irish citizens landing or transiting the UK during the NI troubles.


  • #5149
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Ffs. Why can’t people get this into their head. ITALY ARE AHEAD OF US WHEN IT COMES TO THE LOCKDOWN.
    that means they will be ahead of us in reopening their country compared to us.
    It’s not rocket science.

    And they had a way more severe lockdown too and stuck with it for a very long time.


  • #5150
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,505 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Micky 32 wrote:
    The thread is full of alarmists. So how long would you like Ireland quaranting incomers for? 6 months? A year , 5 years , 10 years?
    From every country until they are clear of the virus.


  • #5151
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,505 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    podgeandrodge wrote:
    I don't want to see mandatory masks everywhere, it should be targeted. Not out walking on the street, and not doing a shop. The virus is under control right now without mandatory masks. Fine making it mandatory on public transport, where people are cooked up with each other for a significant period, or where people cannot social distance.
    Social distancing, where it can be done, has reduced the virus transmission to a fraction of where it was, and the curve has been flattened, allowing the health service to cope.
    That's all happened during a lockdown. We want to end the lockdown. Masks in urban areas, public transport, shops etc is imperative until we reach zero cases for six or so weeks.
    nacho libre wrote:
    Due to economic and political considerations you are unlikely to see it for all incomers- people coming from one of the worst affected countries in Europe will be exempt from quarantining.
    Well it shouldn't be the case. You need leaders with balls and that's where we are weakest, our government, and I don't think that's going to change either. We need to tell the UK and Northern Ireland that we're sorry but Irish lives are paramount.


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  • #5152
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    The thread is full of alarmists. So how long would you like Ireland quaranting incomers for? 6 months? A year , 5 years , 10 years?

    Shame the "alarmists" weren't paid attention to back in January-March, we could have saved a lot of lives and economic damage. Still, those who don't learn from the history of even 5 minutes ago etc..

    Why are you talking about 6 months and 5 years by the way? Ireland and UK have only been in a faux lockdown for two months. We should have gone into a proper one and nailed Corona to the floor and now be starting to properly open up for business. But no, the economic geniuses prefer several surges and lockdowns down the tracks.


  • #5153
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    It's bemusing that the anti mask brigade are inevitably also the anti lockdown brigade. Can they not see how one can lead to the other thing they want? I can only conclude its all down to convenience and not wanting to bother changing things - can't be wearing masks, too much of a hassle all that. Not a matter of life and death or anything. If everyone was compelled to wear any type of face covering Corona would be relegated to "other news". Oh well.


  • #5154
    Steve F
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Humans :- "I'm tired of lockdown and social distancing"
    Virus:- "I'm not tired and still as potent as day 1"


  • #5155
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    eagle eye wrote: »
    From every country until they are clear of the virus.

    According to some the virus won’t be going away and that it will be here always, so i’m guessing you were thinking quarantine should be here always from now on?


  • #5156
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    eagle eye wrote: »
    From every country until they are clear of the virus.

    That cannot be maintained. The virus may become endemic in the same way as the common cold and we will have to learn to live with it


  • #5157
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Or it's just possible that this virus has gone somewhat to ground in the community and it may actually stay there and "burn out" without causing too many clusters and new outbreaks. Good antibody testing will be interesting. If this pox was here for longer than we believe today, say early January, we may find that a helluva lot of people have already had it and either didn't come down with any symptoms(maybe because of existing immunity to other coronaviruses, even flu), or had mild symptoms. That's a hope anyway.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #5158
    Steve F
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭Steve F


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Or it's just possible that this virus has gone somewhat to ground in the community and it may actually stay there and "burn out" without causing too many clusters and new outbreaks. Good antibody testing will be interesting. If this pox was here for longer than we believe today, say early January, we may find that a helluva lot of people have already had it and either didn't come down with any symptoms(maybe because of existing immunity to other coronaviruses, even flu), or had mild symptoms. That's a hope anyway.

    That's possible.1918 flu burnt out....sadly took 2 years


  • #5159
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    fr336 wrote: »
    Shame the "alarmists" weren't paid attention to back in January-March, we could have saved a lot of lives and economic damage. Still, those who don't learn from the history of even 5 minutes ago etc..

    Why are you talking about 6 months and 5 years by the way? Ireland and UK have only been in a faux lockdown for two months. We should have gone into a proper one and nailed Corona to the floor and now be starting to properly open up for business. But no, the economic geniuses prefer several surges and lockdowns down the tracks.

    Maybe if the alarmists were preaching crap 99% of the time maybe someone might have listened to them?

    No one could have really predicted how bad this was going to play out back then. Why 6 months, or 5 years? I was asking a poster what time frame the 2 week quarantine should be applied for. By the way how long do you think quarantine should last for? When all countries are virus free? ( bear in mind the virus may never go) or would you prefer indefinitely?


  • #5160
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Maybe if the alarmists were preaching crap 99% of the time maybe someone might have listened to them?

    No one could have really predicted how bad this was going to play out back then. Why 6 months, or 5 years? I was asking a poster what time frame the 2 week quarantine should be applied for. By the way how long do you think quarantine should last for? When all countries are virus free? ( bear in mind the virus may never go) or would you prefer indefinitely?

    Is it hard to imagine that a virus with a high R0 would begin to spread within European countries that did not even carry out the most basic containment measures on arrivals such as temperature screening or cancelling flights from affected areas?Perhaps those measures wouldnt have had much impact long term, but I still am surprised myself that it's arrival to Europe came as a shock to so many

    It didn't just seem likely, it seemed inevitable


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  • #5161
    fr336
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭fr336


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Maybe if the alarmists were preaching crap 99% of the time maybe someone might have listened to them?

    No one could have really predicted how bad this was going to play out back then. Why 6 months, or 5 years? I was asking a poster what time frame the 2 week quarantine should be applied for. By the way how long do you think quarantine should last for? When all countries are virus free? ( bear in mind the virus may never go) or would you prefer indefinitely?

    I'd prefer us to get back to the position we in the west were in in Janary February with the ability to contain this and ideally efficient contact tracing and focusing on clusters rather than letting it run throughout the country as if it's the flu and something we have to live with. Smart countries have proved it can be done. I'm sure it's not beyond the wit of some of the richest countries on the planet.


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