Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Depends on the previous phases go - seemingly the reasoning behind three-week gaps, rather than two, is that analysis will be conducted during the "middle" week.

GazzaL wrote: »

Based on current form, on the working day before restaurants and cafés are allowed to open, restaurants will be told they can open but cafés will be told to wait for another 3 weeks.

blade1 wrote: »

RIP to the Corona virus threads if this trend keeps up.

political analyst wrote: »

I worded my original question poorly. What I meant is: is there a possibility of restaurants and cafés being open before late June, i.e. enacting Phase 3 earlier? Why can't the analysis be done in week 1 of each phase?

FishOnABike wrote: »

The HIQA report has been repeatedly misunderstood and misrepresented. The report said “While the evidence is limited, it appears that children are not substantially contributing to the spread of COVID-19 in their household or in schools."

In its key points the same report says "Three of the five studies on intra-familial and close contact transmission reported child-to-adult or child-to-family member transmission, although at very low rates." This was from post lockdown studies in Wuhan where only one (adult) person per household was allowed out two times per week for essential purchases therefore the index case in any cluster was almost certain to be an adult.

In the only study referenced in the HIQA publication where there was a similar number of adults and children with CoViD-19 in a similar evvironment (9 teachers and 9 pupils in 15 schools in Australia and their close contacts) transmission appears to be equally likely from an adult or child.

The HIQA publication goes on to say that "emerging evidence in the included studies has highlighted child to adult or family member transmission has the potential to occur" and goes on to say "the studies focused on intra-familial and close contact transmission suggested transmission from children to other family members could occur."..."is. Only one study has examined transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. Reliable, large scale data on spread from symptomatic and asymptomatic children is lacking"

In its conclusion it states "There is currently limited information on the contribution of children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2."

The best that can be concluded from the publication is that there is a need for more study.

The largest study I've seen ( https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadmin/user_upload/microsites/m_cc05/virologie-ccm/dateien_upload/Weitere_Dateien/analysis-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf ) which compares viral load, as a proxy for infectivity, in 3712 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients from 59,381 screened found no difference in viral load between age groups and cautions - "The viral loads observed in the present study, combined with earlier findings of similar attack
rate between children and adults (2), suggest that transmission potential in schools and
kindergartens should be evaluated using the same assumptions of infectivity as for adults."

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

92 cases today. How many tests are they doing?

I'm truly baffled and kind of hoping there might be some truth from the man last weekend who said something about burning out here in about two weeks... Well we have a week left.

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

92 cases. on current trajectory we'll be down around zero in 3 weeks.

Obviously simplistic analysis but things looking okay now.

RIP to the deceased.

DeanAustin wrote: »

I still think if you look outside of Ireland and Europe, a lot of countries still have a lot of cases and seem to be on an upward trajectory. They’re mainly developing countries. I believe there’s a further surge coming in the poorest nations.

This virus isn’t going to go away soon in my opinion. That’s not to say that today’s news isn’t great news and that we shouldn’t open the country back up. It is and we should. But there is still danger out there that will have to be managed.