Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

growleaves wrote: »

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Every untypical scenario possible - from freak mutations to no-immunity - has been floated on this site behind the thin excuse that the virus is novel and therefore we can't know.

With 296k dead after 'only' 5-6 months covid will fall somewhere in the range of influenza, Swine flu at the low end or if it there is a very bad surge in the next few months the 1957 pandemic at the high end.

That's the reality.

The predictions of death rates of 1.5%-7% made here were made by deeply confused people who couldn't comprehend the iceberg effect of asymptomatic cases and recoveries.

Medical experts would disagree with you..

Estimating the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 in real time during its epidemic is very challenging. Nevertheless, this ratio is a very important piece of data that will help to guide the response from various government and public health authorities worldwide. The disease has brought tremendous pressure and disastrous consequences for the public health and medical systems in Wuhan, as well as in Iran, Italy, and in other countries. However, current estimates of case fatality ratio for COVID-19 vary depending on the datasets and time periods examined. A study of nearly 1100 patients from China suggested a case fatality ratio of 1·4%.4 From a dataset of 44 672 confirmed cases in China, a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)5 estimated an overall case fatality ratio of 2·3%, and pointed out that the ratio varied by location and intensity of transmission (eg, 2·9% in Hubei vs 0·4% in other areas of China), in different phases of the outbreak (eg, 14·4% before Dec 31, 15·6% for Jan 1–10, 5·7% for Jan 11–20, 1·9% Jan for 21–31, and 0·8% after Feb 1), as well as by sex (2·8% for males vs 1·7% for females). Moreover, the Chinese CDC reported that the case fatality ratio increases with age (from 0·2% for people aged 11–19 years, to 14·8% for people aged ≥80 years), and with the presence of comorbid conditions (10·5% for cardiovascular disease, 7·3% for diabetes, 6·0% for hypertension, 6·3% for chronic respiratory disease, and 5·6% for cancer). The WHO–China Joint Mission on COVID-19 provided similar data and reported a case fatality ratio of 3·8%, based on the 55 924 laboratory-confirmed cases in China.6

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext




As for the excess deaths... Heartbreaking.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1260233393838620675

Medical experts would disagree with you..

There are medical experts who would disagree with the WHO-China Joint Mission's prediction...

hotmail.com wrote: »

IKEA back open on Monday. Expect lots of outrage about the queues there.

OMG. Will be like the toilet roll muppets back a few weeks then.

What in the name of Jayzis do people need so much anyway from ANY outlet? I suppose it is all in the name of going somewhere.

No sense. But Mammon over God I suppose.

Best of luck to all.

hotmail.com wrote: »

Let's not blame the people.

The government is allowing this to happen.

The government are going to allow people to purchase furniture. The horror.

hmmm wrote: »

Labcorp are already providing home testing in the US (don't ask me how reliable it is). There's a lot of innovation in this area and tests being developed.
https://www.pixel.labcorp.com/covid-19

Having been tested a few times now I can assure you, not many people without adequate training and knowledge would be able to collect decent reliable samples on them selves. It's not sore, just uncomfortable, but if you were doing it to your self you'd assume you were doing it wrong because of the sensation.

Not a great idea, in my opinion.

Patients with comorbid conditions had much higher CFR rates. Those with no comorbidites had a CFR of 0.9%. Critical cases had a CFR of 49%, no deaths occurred among those with mild or even severe symptoms.

Critical cases: respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure.
Severe: dyspnea, respiratory rate ≥30/min, oxygen sats ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hrs
Limitation: some variables (i.e., comorbid condition and case severity) are not required fields in the Chinese CDC Infectious Disease Information System, some records have missing data.

Why is cardiovascular disease (CVD) so prevalent in those who died with COVID-19?
Most acute viral infections have three short-term effects on the CVD system: the inflammatory response can increase the risk of an acute coronary syndrome; depression of the myocardium can worsen heart failure, and inflammation can unmask heart arrhythmias. Seasonal influenza infections can increase CVD deaths significantly, and community-level rises in Influenza-like illness (ILI) lead to rises in CVD mortality:

Nature Medicine: Estimating the clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China~:

Those with coronavirus symptoms in Wuhan, China, had a 1.4% (95% CI, 0.9% to 23.1%) chance of dying,
29th February, the crude CFR case risk, outside Hubei was 0.85%,
Risk of symptomatic infection increased with age, maybe preferential ascertainment of older and more severe cases. *
*Because Wuhan prioritized the admission of more severe cases, the sCFR will be substantially lower than the HFR. *sCFR (s for symptomatic) defines a case as someone who is infected and shows certain symptoms; HFR (hospitalized) defines a case as someone who is infected and hospitalized.

Italy:
In Italy, there are several reasons why the CFR is higher. The age structure of the Italian population (2nd oldest in the world); highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in Europe (Italy tops the EU for antibiotic-resistance deaths, with nearly 1/3rd of the deaths in the EU). Smoking also seems to be a factor associated with poor survival – in Italy, 24% smoke, 28% men. In the UK, for instance, 15% are current smokers.

Coronavirus: Is Covid-19 the cause of all the fatalities in Italy? Sarah Newy reports Italy’s death rate might also be higher because of how fatalities are recorded. In Italy, all those who die in hospitals with Coronavirus are included in the death counts.

In this article, Professor Walter Ricciardi, Scientific Adviser to, Italy’s Minister of Health, reports, “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.”

Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will deflate the CFR.

Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%) had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition): 49% had three or more health conditions; 26% had two other ‘pathologies’, and 25% had one.

The most common problems in the 355 who died were: 76% high blood pressure; 36% diabetes, and 33% ischemic heart disease.

The average age of deceased and COVID-19 positive patients was 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103). The median age of those that died was >15 years higher than patients who contracted the infection (median age: died 81 years – infected 63 years).

source CEBM.net

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe it should be neither. It is the right time to move towards a less restrictive system, and if a store is open people have the right to go. Even if there are queues out the door and car park, as long as people treat each other and any distancing measures with respect there should be no issue

The World Health Organization lauded Sweden as a “model” for battling the coronavirus as countries lift lockdowns — after the nation controversially refused restrictions.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, said Wednesday there are “lessons to be learned” from the Scandinavian nation, which has largely relied on citizens to self-regulate.

“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”

Ryan noted that instead of lockdowns, the country has “put in place a very strong public policy around social distancing, around caring and protecting people in long-term care facilities.”

“What it has done differently is it has very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry and the ability and willingness of its citizens to implement self-distancing and self-regulate,” Ryan said. “In that sense, they have implemented public policy through that partnership with the population.”

He said the country also ramped up testing and had adequate capacity in hospitals to handle any outbreaks.

“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,” Ryan said.

patnor1011 wrote: »

The World Health Organization lauded Sweden as a “model” for battling the coronavirus as countries lift lockdowns — after the nation controversially refused restrictions.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, said Wednesday there are “lessons to be learned” from the Scandinavian nation, which has largely relied on citizens to self-regulate.

“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”

Ryan noted that instead of lockdowns, the country has “put in place a very strong public policy around social distancing, around caring and protecting people in long-term care facilities.”

“What it has done differently is it has very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry and the ability and willingness of its citizens to implement self-distancing and self-regulate,” Ryan said. “In that sense, they have implemented public policy through that partnership with the population.”

He said the country also ramped up testing and had adequate capacity in hospitals to handle any outbreaks.

“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,” Ryan said.

The WHO say different things every other day at this stage.

growleaves wrote: »

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Every untypical scenario possible - from freak mutations to no-immunity - has been floated on this site behind the thin excuse that the virus is novel and therefore we can't know.

With 296k dead after 'only' 5-6 months covid will fall somewhere in the range of influenza, Swine flu at the low end or if it there is a very bad surge in the next few months the 1957 pandemic at the high end.

That's the reality.

The predictions of death rates of 1.5%-7% made here were made by deeply confused people who couldn't comprehend the iceberg effect of asymptomatic cases and recoveries.

Flu is allowed to operate globally though, so it can't really be compared. Among the the countries and regions where there has been widespread infection observed, ie. population levels of 3-10% being positive for antibodies, there has already been many multiples the numbers of deaths from flu in a typical year

For example in the European Union 4x times more people have already died than would be expected from flu in a year. This does not include the thousands of unreported deaths, and it does not take into account the lockdown which has largely stopped transmission for weeks now.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/922235/flu-warning-aussie-flu-deadly-epidemic-europe-european-union-health-commissioner

A flu,this is most certainly not. Same affected demographic yes, but it is killing them in a much more concentrated measure

growleaves wrote: »

The government are going to allow people to purchase furniture. The horror.

The purchase of furniture wasn't banned. Going in person to certain shops, some of which sell furniture, was banned. Going to shops that sell lawnmowers was also banned, or at least advised against, yet I managed to buy one perfectly legally a couple of weeks ago.

Ce he sin wrote: »

The purchase of furniture wasn't banned. Going in person to certain shops, some of which sell furniture, was banned. Going to shops that sell lawnmowers was also banned, or at least advised against, yet I managed to buy one perfectly legally a couple of weeks ago.

But we're in lockdown!?

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

"MADRID (Reuters) – Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study show that about 5% of the overall Spanish population has been affected, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday, adding that results varied widely from region to region."