Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

MonkieSocks · 13-05-2020 08:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Issued April 29th
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52470838

from that same link

Sounding a note of caution, Germany's chief virologist Christian Drosten told Austrian broadcaster ORF that there was insufficient data to say conclusively that young children could not transmit the virus.

He said the question of whether children contracted the virus, and if so how they might pass it on, was answered differently in different studies.

Advice in the UK remains that children should not have contact with grandparents.

MerlinSouthDub · 13-05-2020 08:29PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It was started on April 27th when there had already been 23000 deaths in Spain. It is also likely that most of those who died in the interim had already been infected by that point so I will stand by the 1.1%figure. Maybe between 0.9 and 1.2. Still a lot more serious than flu

Antibodies don't show up until 1 - 3 weeks after infection. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

delly · 13-05-2020 08:32PM

Whatever about the initial report from Australia being the first of many, how can Leo actually say that going back to school is amongst the safest things to do? It flys against everything we have been preaching about staying home and I'm very surprised to hear Leo say it. Add to the reference of looking bad when compared to the rest of Europe and I'm not sure what has occurred to make him make statements, when up to now he has played things very cautiously.

13-05-2020 08:35PM

At what level of cases do hospitals re-open for "non-essential" treatment? Because plenty of that non-essential stuff left to fester leads to fairly bad outcomes. Along with the halving in cancer referrals which is a bit of a timebomb for 6-18 months down the line.

13-05-2020 08:39PM

Mike3287 wrote: »

Interesting

Thats not good

Your numbers look accurate

We in big trouble

I don’t think so really. Compared to the 3% when this was on the horizon by in February it’s a lot better. Even in the march timeframe it was looking like 1.5% plus. Given we have learned a good deal more about the virus, improved treatment, including understanding that ventilation is a last resort option, putting excess capacity in place for the health system, and social distancing to keep numbers low, we should be able to contain this to in a good scenario about 0.5-0.6% in the long term. Even as we all return to work, school etc.

13-05-2020 08:43PM

MonkieSocks wrote: »

from that same link

It’s something to monitor, but more and more data is point towards it being safer for children and associated activity such as schools and childcare

Drumpot · 13-05-2020 08:46PM

delly wrote: »

Whatever about the initial report from Australia being the first of many, how can Leo actually say that going back to school is amongst the safest things to do? It flys against everything we have been preaching about staying home and I'm very surprised to hear Leo say it. Add to the reference of looking bad when compared to the rest of Europe and I'm not sure what has occurred to make him make statements, when up to now he has played things very cautiously.

I wait until they start trying to sell the idea that half full airplanes somehow means the virus isn’t arsed spreading more then one or two seats on a plane..

Society has to be softened back into things. I’d rather he said “look we can’t go on indefinitely like this. Our economy needs to get back some some sort of functioning because it looks like this is going to be around a lot longer then we can afford to put the economy on hold. Statistically Children Are less likely to die from the virus and as such we have to take a step to go back to some level of normalcy. “

That’s the unfiltered truth that won’t be said. I understand why they won’t obviously say it but I just get annoyed when somebody tries to treat us all like mushrooms. Part of the reason a lot of people can’t handle the truth is because they are quite often “protected” from it.

13-05-2020 08:47PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Antibodies don't show up until 1 - 3 weeks after infection. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

Still would not substantially reduce the estimate give those who had died by the time the study began would have contracted the virus at least 1 to 3 weeks prior. In that case reduce my estimate to 0.8 to 1.1. Is still no flu

wakka12 · 13-05-2020 08:48PM

Mike3287 wrote: »

Interesting

Thats not good

Your numbers look accurate

We in big trouble

Its not that bad. Elderly just need to be cocooned, there has been very consistent evidence that it is not in any way dangerous to most people under 50 but it is looking in fact even more dangerous to those over 65 now than originally thought

sonofenoch · 13-05-2020 08:53PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Just saw a news report about covid toes, does anyone remember a poster on here months ago saying they had a bad flu followed by toe swellings?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/12/health/coronavirus-symptoms-blood-clots-inflammation/index.html

200.gif&key=8a1bcc62a6b665cbb1c9f2564077d9854ce376d97af71d392dea039c034615ab

wakka12 · 13-05-2020 08:56PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Antibodies don't show up until 1 - 3 weeks after infection. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

Yes, even if half of the cases in Spain had not developed antibodies by the time of the test there is still a huge number of unaccounted covid deaths which would maintain that rate

growleaves · 13-05-2020 09:01PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Its not that bad. Elderly just need to be cocooned, there has been very consistent evidence that it is not in any dangerous to most people under 50 but it is looking in fact even more dangerous to those over 65 now than originally thought

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Every untypical scenario possible - from freak mutations to no-immunity - has been floated on this site behind the thin excuse that the virus is novel and therefore we can't know.

With 296k dead after 'only' 5-6 months covid will fall somewhere in the range of influenza, Swine flu at the low end or if it there is a very bad surge in the next few months the 1957 pandemic at the high end.

That's the reality.

The predictions of death rates of 1.5%-7% made here were made by deeply confused people who couldn't comprehend the iceberg effect of asymptomatic cases and recoveries.

Danzy · 13-05-2020 09:04PM

growleaves wrote: »

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Every untypical scenario possible - from freak mutations to no-immunity - has been floated on this site behind the thin excuse that the virus is novel and therefore we can't know.

With 296k dead after 'only' 5-6 months covid will fall somewhere in the range of influenza, Swine flu at the low end or if it there is a very bad surge in the next few months the 1957 pandemic at the high end.

That's the reality.

The predictions of death rates of 1.5%-7% made here were made by deeply confused people who couldn't comprehend the iceberg effect of asymptomatic cases and recoveries.

You probably didn't notice but there has been a massive response to and suppression of the virus.

Boggles · 13-05-2020 09:08PM

growleaves wrote: »

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Heart Disease and Cancer say you are talking absolute pony.

wakka12 · 13-05-2020 09:10PM

Some guy on reddit calculated the IFR for each Spanish province based on the antibody test

Nombre Deaths IFR

Madrid 8760 1.2%

Barcelona 5692 1.4%

Ciudad Real 1042 1.9%

Toledo 744 1.2%

Valencia-València 668 1.1%

Zaragoza 647 1.3%

Albacete 500 1.1%

Navarra 494 1.3%

Alicante-Alacant 467 0.9%

León 400 1.2%

Cáceres 397 2.7%

Araba/Álava 355 1.5%

Salamanca 353 1.4%

Valladolid 352 1.1%

La Rioja 348 3.3%

Asturias 307 1.7%

Cuenca 302 1.1%

A Coruña 296 1.5%

Gipuzkoa 281 1.4%

Granada 274 1.2%

Sevilla 273 0.6%

Málaga 272 0.4%

Guadalajara 247 0.9%

Burgos 205 1.1%

Cantabria 205 1.1%

Castellón-Castelló 205 1.3%

Segovia 200 1.0%

What is interesting firstly is how consistent the figures area but also is that urban areas such as Madrid and Barcelona which experienced serious overwhelming of health services dont have a particularly high IFR

MonkieSocks · 13-05-2020 09:11PM

Scientists in China are calling for further research after they discovered that respiratory symptoms might not be the first sign of Covid-19 in children.

While there is much still to understand about how Covid-19 affects children, researchers from the Department of Pediatrics at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China, have said respiratory symptoms may not be the first sign of infection.

The findings suggest that the gastrointestinal symptoms experienced by some children hints at potential infection through the digestive tract.

This is because angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors targeted by the coronavirus are found in the intestines, as well as the heart, lungs and other parts of the body.

“Most children are only mildly affected by Covid-19 and the few severe cases often have underlying health issues,” said researcher Dr Wenbin Li.

“It is easy to miss its diagnosis in the early stage, when a child has non-respiratory symptoms or suffers from another illness.

“Based on our experience of dealing with Covid-19 in regions where this virus is epidemic, children suffering from digestive tract symptoms, especially with fever and/or a history of exposure to this disease, should be suspected of being infected with this virus.”

Gastrointestinal symptoms

The children included in the study had all presented to the emergency department with non-Covid-19 issues, such as a kidney stone or head trauma. Chest CT scans confirmed they had pneumonia before or soon after admission, and were subsequently diagnosed with Covid-19.

Their symptoms were initially mild or hidden, but Wenbin said that four out of five cases had digestive tract symptoms as the first manifestation of the disease.

“The gastrointestinal symptoms experienced by these children may be related to the distribution of receptors and the transmission pathway associated with Covid-19 infection in humans,” Wenbin said.

“This suggests that Covid-19 might infect patients not only through the respiratory tract in the form of air droplets, but also through the digestive tract by contact or faecal-oral transmission.”

Related: microbiology, research, healthcare, coronavirus

Colm Gorey is a senior journalist with Siliconrepublic.com

editorial@siliconrepublic.com

growleaves · 13-05-2020 09:14PM

Boggles wrote: »

Heart Disease and Cancer say you are talking absolute pony.

I should have used the word 'probably'. Either cardiac or respiratory diseases.

Away With The Fairies · 13-05-2020 09:17PM

martingriff wrote: »

Why are you so confused? You know we had a restrictions with people meeting meaning less chance of contact so less cases

They only broadened the criteria last week, how are we getting less than a few weeks ago with more people ignoring restrictions.

13-05-2020 09:18PM

growleaves wrote: »

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Every untypical scenario possible - from freak mutations to no-immunity - has been floated on this site behind the thin excuse that the virus is novel and therefore we can't know.

With 296k dead after 'only' 5-6 months covid will fall somewhere in the range of influenza, Swine flu at the low end or if it there is a very bad surge in the next few months the 1957 pandemic at the high end.

That's the reality.

The predictions of death rates of 1.5%-7% made here were made by deeply confused people who couldn't comprehend the iceberg effect of asymptomatic cases and recoveries.

See the Spanish and French antibody data yet? About 1%. And it’s not 5 to 6 months. It’s 2.5outside China with massive social distancing across the globe

growleaves · 13-05-2020 09:23PM

Deleted User wrote: »

See the Spanish and French antibody data yet? About 1%. And it’s not 5 to 6 months. It’s 2.5outside China with massive social distancing across the globe

Are China and Planet Earth two separate entities? Though unconfirmed, it may have been in Europe as far back as December or January.

13-05-2020 09:23PM

Boggles wrote: »

Heart Disease and Cancer say you are talking absolute pony.

He is right actually, the biggest cause of death in those who die of “old age” is respiratory failure following pneumonia usually caused by viral or bacterial infection. And a good proportion of those dying in care homes would have died of the next significant respiratory infection they got. They would have died with dignity with their family around them however, and a large majority of those around them and in the community who also died would have lived for a good period longer

MonkieSocks · 13-05-2020 09:24PM

Dr. Sanjay Gupta takes coronavirus antibody test...good video

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/04/21/antibody-test-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta-lead-dnt-vpx.cnn

bb1234567 · 13-05-2020 09:24PM

growleaves wrote: »

It is simply typical for respiratory viruses, which are the commonest cause of death in the elderly and very infirm in the world.

Every untypical scenario possible - from freak mutations to no-immunity - has been floated on this site behind the thin excuse that the virus is novel and therefore we can't know.

With 296k dead after 'only' 5-6 months covid will fall somewhere in the range of influenza, Swine flu at the low end or if it there is a very bad surge in the next few months the 1957 pandemic at the high end.

That's the reality.

The predictions of death rates of 1.5%-7% made here were made by deeply confused people who couldn't comprehend the iceberg effect of asymptomatic cases and recoveries.

A lot more than 296k people have died though. In many countries in Europe half of deaths have not been reported, Iran Mexico Brazil Ecuador each individually have tens of thousands of unreported deaths. Who knows how many have died in China

And 6 months?The first death in China occurred 4 months ago. The first deaths in the Western world occurred about 2.5 months ago. In South America about 6 weeks ago. It is totally disingenuous to say this has been going on for 6 months just because the first case occured in China 5 months ago

ek motor · 13-05-2020 09:26PM

Tanzania hospitals overwhelmed - BBC

They haven't released data since April 29th

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52646640

Boggles · 13-05-2020 09:28PM

Deleted User wrote: »

He is right actually, the biggest cause of death in those who die of “old age” is respiratory failure following pneumonia usually caused by viral or bacterial infection. And a good proportion of those dying in care homes would have died of the next significant respiratory infection they got. They would have died with dignity with their family around them however, and a large majority of those around them and in the community who also died would have lived for a good period longer

Nope. Taking Ireland as an example as the data is reliable.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/660389/principal-causes-of-death-ireland/

13-05-2020 09:29PM

growleaves wrote: »

Are China and Planet Earth two separate entities? Though unconfirmed, it may have been in Europe as far back as December or January.

1 or 2 cases in a region does not mean a virus is endemic in a population. Flu is constantly circulating all around the world while this virus started from nothing meaning it was going to take a least 3 months to become widespread across the globe simply due to the incubation period. The first 3 months cannot be representative of its global impact as it simply did not have the chance to become endemic, and in the second 3 months it’s been constrained by measures never taken for flu.

No comment on France or Spain at 1%?

Speakerboxx · 13-05-2020 09:31PM

grazer wrote: »

Anyone got a link to video of this evening’s briefing? I missed it and can’t find it on rte or Dept of Health,

It was pure riveting stuff for anyone that missed it.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-05-2020 09:33PM

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail...

Record death tolls in Mexico and Brazil add to fears of Covid-19 surge in Latin America

Countries log highest single-day death tolls to date amid ambivalent and delayed reactions from the governments

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/brazil-mexico-coronavirus-pandemic-latin-america

In Brazil – where the president, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as “a little flu” – the health ministry reported a new grim record of 881 deaths in 24 hours on Tuesday night. It has now confirmed 12,461 deaths, the sixth-highest death toll in the world, and 178,214 cases.

Mexico also reached a new landmark on Tuesday night, reporting 353 new deaths over the previous 24 hours and 1,997 new confirmed cases.

13-05-2020 09:34PM

Boggles wrote: »

Nope. Taking Ireland as an example as the data is reliable.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/660389/principal-causes-of-death-ireland/

That’s all deaths. I am talking about old age, the types that typically occur in care homes. Heart failure or cancer may accelerate the deterioration, but it’s usually pneumonia that ends it

mandrake04 · 13-05-2020 09:38PM

hmmm wrote: »

Labcorp are already providing home testing in the US (don't ask me how reliable it is). There's a lot of innovation in this area and tests being developed.
https://www.pixel.labcorp.com/covid-19

LOL That’s a home collection kit not a test kit, you swab yourself and send it back to the lab and probably get a result in 5-7days. (Maybe HSE should have used this service it would have been quicker than running them in Ireland)

Looking at the pic they are using a MP96 and LC480 to run the PCR test, very reliable but collecting the sample yourself there’s a chance of making yourself gag/vomit and not collecting properly.

There’s no rapid self test for diagnosis, you are testing for virus RNA which is a single strand of genetic code at the moment PCR test is the only real reliable method in a lab.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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