Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

wakka12 · 11-05-2020 08:29PM

political analyst wrote: »

As Varadkar said last week, the virus was in both France and Ireland before last Christmas because of flights between China and France and between France and Ireland. So most of us have probably contracted the virus and survived.

Very few(less than 1 in 10) Europeans have antibodies

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchNlgG8*0znT152OBcjvTysrbg4e3w#gid=0

NH2013 · 11-05-2020 08:30PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It'll have to be increased back to regular timetables and then in august remove the social distancing signs from seats on board. It'll be carnage when schools, colleges and offices are back.

They wont have much choice.

CIE look like they're going to need a government bailout as it is

I'd say it will have to be back to normal schedule ASAP to facilitate those workers who are unable to work from home return to work in phase 2.

is_that_so · 11-05-2020 08:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Very few(less than 1 in 10) Europeans have antibodies

As a matter of interest is there a link to that?

Gael23 · 11-05-2020 08:30PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It'll have to be increased back to regular timetables and then in august remove the social distancing signs from seats on board. It'll be carnage when schools, colleges and offices are back.

They wont have much choice.

CIE look like they're going to need a government bailout as it is

A 55 seater can now carry 15 passengers which as this point in time is adequate, but come August hen the majority are back in their offices and schools begin to reopen there’s going to be lots of problems.

political analyst · 11-05-2020 08:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Very few(less than 1 in 10) Europeans have antibodies

Most of them haven't had antibody tests yet. So the possibility that most of us have had the virus and are OK cannot be ruled out.

Maestro85 · 11-05-2020 08:31PM

Cheers Steno and What Username Guidelines. Positive news all round then.

I'd nearly prefer masks to be mandatory in certain industries and a strong advisory in public so we can beat the virus and speed up the reopening. Time will tell.

Are we seeing many other resurgences in other countries though. I only know about Wuhan.

Gael23 · 11-05-2020 08:33PM

NH2013 wrote: »

I'd say it will have to be back to normal schedule ASAP to facilitate those workers who are unable to work from home return to work in phase 2.

It’s not so much the schedule, it’s the fact they can carry so few passengers thanks to social distancing

wakka12 · 11-05-2020 08:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

As a matter of interest is there a link to that?

Yep
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchNlgG8*0znT152OBcjvTysrbg4e3w#gid=0

NH2013 · 11-05-2020 08:37PM

Gael23 wrote: »

It’s not so much the schedule, it’s the fact they can carry so few passengers thanks to social distancing

Sorry, my point was more that the current Saturday schedule will have to be returned to a weekday schedule much quicker than when demand returns to normal levels as to allow for social distancing. If anything we should be looking at an even more frequent service than previous to spread the number of people who need to commute out over more buses and DARTs/Trains.

wakka12 · 11-05-2020 08:38PM

political analyst wrote: »

Most of them haven't had antibody tests yet. So the possibility that most of us have had the virus and are OK cannot be ruled out.

There have been several antibody tests that show the level of infection that has occurred in Europe is low
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchNlgG8*0znT152OBcjvTysrbg4e3w#gid=0

Netherlands only 3% of the population have antibodies.

Maybe as more tests are rolled out the level of people who have had it will rise. But is it without a doubt untrue that 'most ' of the population have had it

What Username Guidelines · 11-05-2020 08:44PM

Gael23 wrote: »

A 55 seater can now carry 15 passengers which as this point in time is adequate, but come August hen the majority are back in their offices and schools begin to reopen there’s going to be lots of problems.

Everyone going on like Dublin will become this perfect city for walking and cycling, but in reality every day will be like a rainy day - those who usually take a bus but have access to a car will drive as it’s safer to drive alone. Traffic will be absolutely brutal.

podgeandrodge · 11-05-2020 08:48PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

Why, did you infer that I was unwilling to listen to him, I did and found it informative to a point, as I've never studied any of the softer sciences. I was responding to the following sentence.

I see that he has written books such as "Morales JF, Song T, Auerbach AD, and Wittkowski KM (2008) Phenotyping genetic diseases using an extension of μ-scores for multivariate data. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology" which sound intelligent enough to me.

Ahh, my reference to "sounding intelligent" was sarcasm reserved for Boggles who called him "another Kook".

Boggles wrote: »

He is not an epidemiologist.

Another Kook trying to make himself relevant.

weisses · 11-05-2020 08:53PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Netherlands only 3% of the population have antibodies.

so more then 500000 have antibodies

total cases 42000

So the group of people with antibodies is 12 times larger then the people actually being tested positive

wakka12 · 11-05-2020 08:58PM

weisses wrote: »

so more then 500000 have antibodies

total cases 42000

So the group of people with antibodies is 12 times larger then the people actually being tested positive

Yep seems to be about 10x times undercount in the west, probably being undercounted by multiples more in the developing world

harr · 11-05-2020 09:15PM

Watching Hospital special on Covid 19 on BBC 2 , Jesus they really did make a balls of it all ..
It’s really showing the human side behind the huge numbers .. scary stuff

Beanybabog · 11-05-2020 09:17PM

Arghus wrote: »

I hope he's right too: I really do hope he's right.

But it amazing how so many people have taken the word of this one man, who isn't even an expert in the field, as absolute certain proof and that no other evidence is required.

I think people are desperately hoping he is. I know I am! I know many more experts disagree but a little bit of hope goes a long way these days, it’s nice to imagine good things happening for us for a break from worrying about the worst case scenarios

GM228 · 11-05-2020 09:21PM

Daily ICU occupancy numbers as reported by the HSE since 13th April onward:-

Day

| Date | ICU occupancy | Change +/-

45

| 13/04/2020 |

144

| N/A

46

| 14/04/2020 |

147

| 2%

47

| 15/04/2020 |

142

| -3%

48

| 16/04/2020 |

138

| -3%

49

| 17/04/2020 |

132

| -4%

50

| 18/04/2020 |

140

| 6%

51

| 19/04/2020 |

138

| -1%

52

| 20/04/2020 |

138

| 0%

53

| 21/04/2020 |

132

| -4%

54

| 22/04/2020 |

130

| -2%

55

| 23/04/2020 |

123

| -5%

56

| 24/04/2020 |

118

| -4%

57

| 25/04/2020 |

123

| 4%

58

| 26/04/2020 |

120

| -2%

59

| 27/04/2020 |

117

| -3%

60

| 28/04/2020 |

113

| -3%

61

| 29/04/2020 |

103

| -9%

62

| 30/04/2020 |

105

| 2%

63

| 01/05/2020 |

99

| -6%

64

| 02/05/2020 |

98

| -1%

65

| 03/05/2020 |

93

| -5%

66

| 04/05/2020 |

91

| -2%

67

| 05/05/2020 |

90

| -1%

68

| 06/05/2020 |

82

| -9%

69

| 07/05/2020 |

76

| -7%

70

| 08/05/2020 |

72

| -5%

71

| 09/05/2020 |

72

| 0%

72

| 10/05/2020 |

72

| 0%

73

| 11/05/2020 |

72

| 0%

BorneTobyWilde · 11-05-2020 09:25PM

Looks like virus is vanishing as quickly as it appeared. Even the UK and USA are seeing huge decline .

We'll be back wrecking the planet in no time, and not a thing will have been learned.

tobefrank321 · 11-05-2020 09:28PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yep seems to be about 10x times undercount in the west, probably being undercounted by multiples more in the developing world

Professor Moynagh said something similar. A number of experts also said something similar in the UK. If anything the gap between confirmed and actual cases is larger there.

tobefrank321 · 11-05-2020 09:31PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Looks like virus is vanishing as quickly as it appeared. Even the UK and USA are seeing huge decline .

We'll be back wrecking the planet in no time, and not a think will have been learned.

Generally it goes away as fast as it spreads but there's no guarantee once lockdown is lifted it won't re-emerge. We will have to live with it and probably use targetted lockdowns. Eg if a certain town has a cluster, it might make sense to shut down the area until full contact tracing is carried out. Something like that.

jams100 · 11-05-2020 09:36PM

Maestro85 wrote: »

I'd nearly prefer masks to be mandatory in certain industries and a strong advisory in public so we can beat the virus and speed up the reopening.

Beat the virus? What do u mean?
The virus is going nowhere, unless your suggestion is lockdown until About September?

expectationlost · 11-05-2020 09:38PM

how are the meat factory workers doing?

Eod100 · 11-05-2020 09:39PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Generally it goes away as fast as it spreads but there's no guarantee once lockdown is lifted it won't re-emerge. We will have to live with it and probably use targetted lockdowns. Eg if a certain town has a cluster, it might make sense to shut down the area until full contact tracing is carried out. Something like that.

Yeah I think to stay on top of it it needs to take maximum of 72 hours from contacting GP to test result to contact tracing. Currently here it's a median of 5 days. Think need a permanent amount of staff on standby ready to contact tracing. Know some in army and civil service have been trained.

I think contact tracing as important as testing but can only work effectively if testing is quick too. That's best way to respond to new cases.

D.Q · 11-05-2020 09:40PM

expectationlost wrote: »

how are the meat factory workers doing?

They've all weirdly disappeared. Such a shame as we've just gotten a big delivery of this odd looking meat.

timsey tiger · 11-05-2020 09:45PM

jams100 wrote: »

Beat the virus? What do u mean?
The virus is going nowhere, unless your suggestion is lockdown until About September?

And that would need to be a world wide lockdown

growleaves · 11-05-2020 09:46PM

I'm not 'taking the word' of Levitt, I just think he should be listened to since he might be right or he might be on to something at least.

Also the attitude towards isolated micro-specialisms has gotten way out of hand. In theory (to a certain extent at least), a subdivision of science is supposed to be verifiable from adjacent areas of science.

Epidemiology is not a mystery cult. Levitt now has the attention of every epidemiologist in the world, so they can make reasonable objections to his contribution from their greater understanding of the field.

That's not the same thing as wanting scientists dismissed without analysis or consideration in some sort of credentialist gotcha moment.

Miike · 11-05-2020 09:49PM

growleaves wrote: »

I'm not 'taking the word' of Levitt, I just think he should be listened to since he might be right or he might be on to something at least.

Also the attitude towards isolated micro-specialisms has gotten way out of hand. In theory (to a certain extent at least), a subdivision of science is supposed to be verifiable from adjacent areas of science.

Epidemiology is not a mystery cult. Levitt now has the attention of every epidemiologist in the world, so they can make reasonable objections to his contribution from their greater understanding of the field.

That's not the same thing as wanting scientists dismissed without analysis or consideration in some sort of credentialist gotcha moment.

If this virus is "burned out" in 2 weeks as of Saturday I will live stream me eating a pair of scrubs, a full set of PPE and my shoes to the entire nation.

I hope I am wrong, I really do. I just don't see how it's logical or possible given what we're seeing in other places and the nature of the disease.

JPCN1 · 11-05-2020 10:00PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Not gonna happen, but you’re right, it really would be class. I came to the realisation the other day that there probably won’t be a watershed “it’s safe!” moment for this, who knows how it will go, it will probably be a very long process with lots of variables and we won’t even know we’re back to “normal” until well after we are. Even if miraculously it does peter out seasonally, there’ll be a level of paranoia about the place.

But can you imagine waking up one day to it just being instantly over? It’d be like the whole world just won the World Cup. The country would grind to an even bigger halt than right now as everyone goes on an almighty session.

Hangover will be a biggie and last for years though.

JP Liz V1 · 11-05-2020 10:04PM

bekker wrote: »

Today's briefing said median delay for testing turn around is 5 days, DOH apparently afraid to give the bounds of the data set used, and if data set has not been stripped of hospital testing times then it's deliberate skewed to the low side.

In any case 5 days is useless for contact track and trace.

Paul Reid was saying 3 days then 2.5 days from referral test and result

Is contact tracing still being done?

bekker · 11-05-2020 10:10PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Paul Reid was saying 3 days then 2.5 days from referral test and result

Is contact tracing still being done?

Presumably but according to the briefing it doesn't kick in till the turnaround time has elapsed, and the current median for turnaround time is 5 days.

The general international consensus appears to be that starting effective contact tracing after more than 48 hours and you've lost the battle.

Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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