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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

1…9192949697…324

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  • #2792
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Only 6 COVID-19 cases in the CUH as of this evening. 2 on ventilators.


  • #2793
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    So what timsey? Techniques for lots of things are covered at undergraduate level.
    He's had a long established career and as growleaves pointed out, headed up the department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design at Rockefeller. Why are you so reluctant to pay any attention to his opinion?

    Why, did you infer that I was unwilling to listen to him, I did and found it informative to a point, as I've never studied any of the softer sciences. I was responding to the following sentence.

    I see that he has written books such as "Morales JF, Song T, Auerbach AD, and Wittkowski KM (2008) Phenotyping genetic diseases using an extension of μ-scores for multivariate data. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology" which sound intelligent enough to me.


  • #2794
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,155 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    Jim_Hodge wrote: »
    I hope he's right but he's a computer modelling expert not an epidemiologist and this is a very new and different virus.

    I hope he's right too: I really do hope he's right.

    But it amazing how so many people have taken the word of this one man, who isn't even an expert in the field, as absolute certain proof and that no other evidence is required.


  • #2795
    UrbanSprawl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,899 ✭✭✭UrbanSprawl


    owlbethere wrote: »
    We have a Nobel prize winner telling us the virus is going to vanish in 2 weeks time.

    And a professor from Isreal said the same thing.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

    the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.


  • #2796
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    UrbanSprawl wrote: »
    And a professor from Isreal said the same thing.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

    the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.


    So are they saying the new outbreaks in Wuhan and Germany will follow the same path or is it just the initial outbreak?


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  • #2797
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    UrbanSprawl wrote: »
    And a professor from Isreal said the same thing.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

    the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

    What did he say about trying to keep ICU numbers down?


  • #2798
    sonofenoch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭sonofenoch


    branie2 wrote: »
    RIP, the 15 people who died.

    At the same time, it's great that the number of deaths are going down

    Your work here will soon be done...


  • #2799
    UrbanSprawl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,899 ✭✭✭UrbanSprawl


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    What did he say about trying to keep ICU numbers down?

    Good point,yes the lockdown was necessary to keep the numbers down given our woeful health service but the point is this will end and cases will become very low and the current relaxation of restriction can be speeded up.


  • #2800
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    s1ippy wrote: »
    That'd be class.

    Not gonna happen, but you’re right, it really would be class. I came to the realisation the other day that there probably won’t be a watershed “it’s safe!” moment for this, who knows how it will go, it will probably be a very long process with lots of variables and we won’t even know we’re back to “normal” until well after we are. Even if miraculously it does peter out seasonally, there’ll be a level of paranoia about the place.

    But can you imagine waking up one day to it just being instantly over? It’d be like the whole world just won the World Cup. The country would grind to an even bigger halt than right now as everyone goes on an almighty session.


  • #2801
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,041 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Only 6 COVID-19 cases in the CUH as of this evening. 2 on ventilators.

    I'd say Cork hospitals coped well so far
    https://forumofgames.com/




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  • #2802
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,393 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    UrbanSprawl wrote: »
    Good point,yes the lockdown was necessary to keep the numbers down given our woeful health service but the point is this will end and cases will become very low and the current relaxation of restriction can be speeded up.

    Well, I'd question whether our health service is "woeful". Especially as three front line doctors came on this thread to praise the HSE's response.


  • #2803
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,978 ✭✭✭growleaves


    lbj666 wrote: »
    As another poster said the morons need to be explained their logic in terms they understand "We did the thing to stop it being really bad, it didnt turn out really bad , so why did we do the thing to stop it being really bad?"

    Sorry but as I've explained before, though some here don't seem to understand it, a circular cause-and-effect assumption cannot prove itself.

    Circular assumption in 2 parts:
    1. Assume a lockdown will prevent deaths.
    2. Assume a lockdown did prevent deaths.

    'You see, I was right! I said millions of people would die. Then I said millions of people wouldn't die if we locked down. Then millions of people didn't die.'


  • #2804
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    If we take a fair reflection over the last 6 weeks, I think from where we were , the situation at present is pretty much at the best case scenario.

    Let's hope the disease is waning and losing its punch.

    I’m optimistic that levels will be manageable if we keep social distancing to some extent!

    I think where we will find difficulties is imported cases as we don’t seem to have any restrictions on inward travel. It maybe ok initially because people will be social distancing though? Maybe this is the logic why we aren’t restricting travel


  • #2805
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,150 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    growleaves wrote: »
    Sorry but as I've explained before, though some here don't seem to understand it, a circular cause-and-effect assumption cannot prove itself.

    Circular assumption in 2 parts:
    1. Assume a lockdown will prevent deaths.
    2. Assume a lockdown did prevent deaths.

    'You see, I was right! I said millions of people would die. Then I said millions of people wouldn't die if we locked down. Then millions of people didn't die.'

    There's no control group here but I'd prefer to have the restrictions than not. Better to regret doing something than not regret doing something. I guess Sweden is probably closes to example of somewhere that didn't have as tight restrictions. They have more deaths than their neighbours and government have apologised to the elderly for failing them.


  • #2806
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Well, I'd question whether our health service is "woeful". Especially as three front line doctors came on this thread to praise the HSE's response.

    I think the HSE has responded very well and quickly to this however we have had to shut down a lot of services to do , cancel referrals and rent out private hospitals to do so. The HSE has been underfunded and had resources cut for years and as a result it couldn’t cope if we didn’t impose restrictions. Many staff in the HSE have openly spoke about dangerous over crowding and lack of resources when it comes to staff (pre covid)


  • #2807
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    UrbanSprawl wrote: »
    Good point,yes the lockdown was necessary to keep the numbers down given our woeful health service but the point is this will end and cases will become very low and the current relaxation of restriction can be speeded up.
    Our woeful health service coped a lot better than Italy's state of the art health service.


  • #2808
    Maestro85
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 199 ✭✭Maestro85


    Pain in the ass to being putting this on you all but could someone give me the key upates for today. Just in from work and scalded by the sun and good luck getting the tv remote off my misses to watch rte news now... I know about the 15 deaths, outbreak in wuhan and the computer modelling guy.


  • #2809
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    Maestro85 wrote: »
    Pain in the ass to being putting this on you all but could someone give me the key upates for today. Just in from work and scalded by the sun and good luck getting the tv remote off my misses to watch rte news now... I know about the 15 deaths, outbreak in wuhan and the computer modelling guy.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058076441

    That's all you need to know about Ireland. Super spreading event in South Korea, mass shutdowns of nightclubs as a result. Case closed.


  • #2810
    timsey tiger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭timsey tiger


    I've attached cumulative cases per 100,000 for a few counties. Some seem to have "flattened the curve" more than others. I guess some of the actual numbers are not that large for smaller pop. counties so jumps could be as a result of a batch of cases coming in.

    Some counties cases per 100000.PNG

    512617.PNG


  • #2811
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Maestro85 wrote: »
    Pain in the ass to being putting this on you all but could someone give me the key upates for today. Just in from work and scalded by the sun and good luck getting the tv remote off my misses to watch rte news now... I know about the 15 deaths, outbreak in wuhan and the computer modelling guy.

    Dr. Tony was remarkably positive today about our progress

    Numbers in ICU now lower than when the big restrictions came in

    Likely face coverings will be recommended by the end of this week


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  • #2812
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Maestro85 wrote: »
    Pain in the ass to being putting this on you all but could someone give me the key upates for today. Just in from work and scalded by the sun and good luck getting the tv remote off my misses to watch rte news now... I know about the 15 deaths, outbreak in wuhan and the computer modelling guy.

    139 new cases
    Computer guy says 2 more weeks and we’re golden.
    Apparent error yesterday, was 66 less cases than reported
    UK eased lockdown but no one understands it, so expect some chaos
    Italy and Spain still trending downwards heavily
    Weather clear but a little cooler. Real feel 6°C


  • #2813
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Today's briefing said median delay for testing turn around is 5 days, DOH apparently afraid to give the bounds of the data set used, and if data set has not been stripped of hospital testing times then it's deliberate skewed to the low side.

    In any case 5 days is useless for contact track and trace.


  • #2814
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    139 new cases
    Computer guy says 2 more weeks and we’re golden.
    Apparent error yesterday, was 66 less cases than reported
    UK eased lockdown but no one understands it, so expect some chaos
    Italy and Spain still trending downwards heavily
    Weather clear but a little cooler. Real feel 6°C

    55, and today's 139 number recognised that, it should have been 194 but was lowered to correct the mistake.


  • #2815
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Our woeful health service coped a lot better than Italy's state of the art health service.

    We weren’t the first country in the western world to have an explosion of cases.

    We were more proactive than Italy.

    We were one of the last countries in Europe to have a surge.. our first diagnosed case was on Feb 29th

    We didn’t put older people who had no chance of survival onto ventilators given the outcomes among cases like this.


  • #2816
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    UrbanSprawl wrote: »
    And a professor from Isreal said the same thing.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

    the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

    How could they possibly know that. The first outbreaks outside China occurred roughly 70 days ago, so they have at best about three examples as proof of this theory.And of those three, Italy and Iran are still far from zero, 1 in 7 daily deaths the last few days in Italy are still covid related . South Korea's outbreak ended long before 70 days because of government intervention, so again , load of crap


  • #2817
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Stheno wrote: »
    Dr. Tony was remarkably positive today about our progress

    Numbers in ICU now lower than when the big restrictions came in

    Likely face coverings will be recommended by the end of this week

    If anything he said they wont be mandatory so its going to be make your own mind up really

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1259900189470490624?s=19

    Edit: sorry thought your post said they'd be made mandatory.


  • #2818
    political analyst
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,893 ✭✭✭political analyst


    As Varadkar said last week, the virus was in both France and Ireland before last Christmas because of flights between China and France and between France and Ireland. So most of us have probably contracted the virus and survived.


  • #2819
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,147 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Capacity on public transport is going to be a serious problem as restrictions are eased


  • #2820
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,922 ✭✭✭GM228


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Capacity on public transport is going to be a serious problem as restrictions are eased

    Indeed, it was already a serious problem before this as it was.


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  • #2821
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Capacity on public transport is going to be a serious problem as restrictions are eased

    It'll have to be increased back to regular timetables and then in august remove the social distancing signs from seats on board. It'll be carnage when schools, colleges and offices are back.

    They wont have much choice.

    CIE look like they're going to need a government bailout as it is


This discussion has been closed.
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