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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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  • #1772
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Boggles wrote: »
    Harris and the HSE refused to meet with the CEO of Nursing homes Ireland twice.

    Coordinated me bollix, stop spinning FFS.

    At best they were utterly wreckless towards nursing homes, at worse they were purposely abandoned.
    Just add it to the list of faffing about, delays, all the way up to incompetence that our authorities have been prone to. But it doesn't matter B, most Irish people think they're doing a grand oul job. Mostly because they want this to be over now, so are willing to ignore anything that says we're not handling this well, or as well as we could have(or could be even now). That'll come out in years to come if it comes out at all. The spin will no doubt be put on it that we could have done much worse. Look at our original projections(which were a nonsense as projections tend to be). Maybe there'll be an enquiry for some tax payer funded quango committaaay, but the TD's and HSE brass will still get their pensions.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #1773
    Snugglebunnies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭Snugglebunnies


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    If I did have it, I didn't isolate and I could have been spreading it.

    In fairness, you weren't to know at the time, nobody would have known. The range of symptoms to look out for has grown hugely in the last few weeks. Back then nobody would have been concerned about a runny nose.


  • #1774
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Boggles wrote: »
    Harris and the HSE refused to meet with the CEO of Nursing homes Ireland twice.

    Coordinated me bollix, stop spinning FFS.

    At best they were utterly reckless towards nursing homes, at worse they were purposely abandoned.
    I have given you facts and a quote from the CMO. Anything else is your opinion v my opinion and we could well both be wrong.


  • #1775
    ChelseaRentBoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 473 ✭✭ChelseaRentBoy


    Interview with the director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who contracted it.

    Key paragraph for me - "Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flu like symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

    Obviously raises questions about long-term morbidity as a result.


  • #1776
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »
    Interview with the director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who contracted it.

    Key paragraph for me - "Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flu like symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

    Obviously raises questions about long-term morbidity as a result.

    This is an issue from anyone on a ventilator... For whatever reason. Being ventilated for a prolonged period of time damages your organs.


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  • #1777
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,418 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I have given you facts and a quote from the CMO. Anything else is your opinion v my opinion and we could well both be wrong.

    Fact - Nursing homes were told to shut down early March by their association.

    Fact - Tony and HSE in mid March were saying they should open them back up.

    In your opinion, which was the better advice and which was utterly stupid and wreckless in the extreme?


  • #1778
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    mloc123 wrote: »
    This is an issue from anyone on a ventilator... For whatever reason. Being ventilated for a prolonged period of time damages your organs.
    True, but the chap interviewed didn't need a ventilator and still had residual and potentially dangerous even fatal health issues from the virus. Interestingly and chillingly he also noted that

    "After fighting viruses all over the world for more than 40 years, I have become an expert in infections. I’m glad I had corona and not Ebola, although I read a scientific study yesterday that concluded you have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That’s about the same overall mortality rate as for Ebola in 2014 in West Africa."

    I wonder what our stats are on that score? I suspect not as bad. We didn't get overwhelmed the way they did and have far fewer people of African, Middle Eastern and West Asian people in the population and they seem to get it much worse.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #1779
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Boggles wrote: »
    Fact - Nursing homes were told to shut down early March by their association.

    Fact - Tony and HSE in mid March were saying they should open them back up.

    In your opinion, which was the better advice and which was utterly stupid and wreckless in the extreme?
    He said it wasn't consistent with their advice at that time but it was shortly after. The answer to that question is an opinion. I don't have the qualifications nor data to answer it is my answer although I believe the area of care centre outcomes is a whole lot more complicated than one decision.

    The graph of cases shows that they didn't appear in homes until two weeks after the first community cases. The CMO argues that it is unlikely to have been visitors but we will probably never know. Staff at multiple care settings is a more likely possibility.

    Here's a piece I found on HSE reports on nursing homes from a few weeks ago.


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/75-nursing-homes-need-intensive-support-during-covid-19-crisis-996144.html


  • #1780
    coastwatch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 909 ✭✭✭coastwatch


    ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »
    Interview with the director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who contracted it.

    Key paragraph for me - "Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flu like symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

    Obviously raises questions about long-term morbidity as a result.

    This is the reason why the so called "herd/community immunity" approach is high risk with a new virus, when the longer term effects are unknown.


  • #1781
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52282844

    Deaths in the London area likely now at over 6000


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  • #1782
    MD1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52282844

    Deaths in the London area likely now at over 6000

    I was due to go to London at the start of March.

    Think I made the right call. Must be rampant in London.


  • #1783
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,999 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Wibbs wrote: »
    True, but the chap interviewed didn't need a ventilator and still had residual and potentially dangerous even fatal health issues from the virus. Interestingly and chillingly he also noted that

    "After fighting viruses all over the world for more than 40 years, I have become an expert in infections. I’m glad I had corona and not Ebola, although I read a scientific study yesterday that concluded you have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That’s about the same overall mortality rate as for Ebola in 2014 in West Africa."

    I wonder what our stats are on that score? I suspect not as bad. We didn't get overwhelmed the way they did and have far fewer people of African, Middle Eastern and West Asian people in the population and they seem to get it much worse.

    Come on, Ebola kills 30%+ of all people infected. Most people who get SARS-2 only get mild symptoms and are never hospitalised.

    The BBC had a very interesting program that looked at the Black Death and made an interesting case that it wasn't spread by fleas but by human contact and might have been an Ebola like hemorrhagic virus.


  • #1784
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I have given you facts and a quote from the CMO. Anything else is your opinion v my opinion and we could well both be wrong.
    We had teachers shutting schools in a panic, and "won't you think of the children" types pushing for schools to be closed randomly. Agreed they wanted a co-ordinated approach at the time, or half the country would have been shut down haphazardly. In hindsight probably the wrong decision for nursing homes, but I understand why they did it at the time - and hindsight makes criticism very easy.


  • #1785
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »
    Interview with the director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who contracted it.

    Key paragraph for me - "Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flu like symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

    Obviously raises questions about long-term morbidity as a result.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113376891&postcount=1272


  • #1786
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,999 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Boggles wrote: »
    Fact - Nursing homes were told to shut down early March by their association.

    Fact - Tony and HSE in mid March were saying they should open them back up.

    In your opinion, which was the better advice and which was utterly stupid and wreckless in the extreme?

    Reminds me of the first in this thread series, where some of us were stocking up on food, buying hand gel and masks and others were saying we were being ridiculous and making a mountain out of a molehill. The HSE were unfortunately in that cohort.


  • #1787
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Snugglebunnies wrote: »
    It's mad how there's such a difference of symptoms displayed in different people. My sister is a doctor, one of her colleagues had a runny nose and was sent home to be tested. She was positive, that was her only symptom.

    But we were told a runny nose wasnt a symptom!

    I had a block nose for a month in Jan/Feb which never progressed to anything else. It was very strange. Maybe I......

    40qtta.jpg


  • #1788
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Come on, Ebola kills 30%+ of all people infected. Most people who get SARS-2 only get mild symptoms and are never hospitalised.
    His point was that if you are in the hospitalised cohort the percentages are similar.
    The BBC had a very interesting program that looked at the Black Death and made an interesting case that it wasn't spread by fleas but by human contact and might have been an Ebola like hemorrhagic virus.
    Well, the problem with the Black Death is Europe was hit with various rolling plagues for centuries and they often overlapped and the chroniclers tended to call everything a "plague" or "pestilence". That said those who did give more comprehensive details and symptom lists describe bubonic(even pneumonic) plague to a tee. Plus they've dug the DNA of yersinia pestis the bug that causes the disease out of contemporaneous graves.

    There were certainly other plagues that could well have been haemorrhagic virus types. There was even a really weird sweating sickness that ravaged England, but for some reason wasn't reported elsewhere, save for in Normandy, where even there it apparently only sickened and killed just the English inhabitants. There was another dose in the 17th century IIRC that also killed horses oddly enough. That said the main black death thing was almost certainly bubonic plague.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #1789
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,837 ✭✭✭quokula


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Reminds me of the first in this thread series, where some of us were stocking up on food, buying hand gel and masks and others were saying we were being ridiculous and making a mountain out of a molehill. The HSE were unfortunately in that cohort.

    The pro-panic buying cohort weren’t correct though. The supply chain is still totally fine.

    As for the seriousness of the disease, the HSE were following the WHO who were following the evidence. Some people love a bit of disaster porn and are constantly claiming the sky is falling and even though they’re wrong 99% of the time they get to say I told you so for a once in a century event.

    The HSE don’t have that luxury, if they shut down the country every time there was a new virus somewhere in the world before it was potentially understood, Ireland would be totally on its knees by now after the shut downs for Ebola, SARS 1 and Mers in the last couple of decades.


  • #1790
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Wibbs wrote: »
    His point was that if you are in the hospitalised cohort the percentages are similar.

    Well, the problem with the Black Death is Europe was hit with various rolling plagues for centuries and they often overlapped and the chroniclers tended to call everything a "plague" or "pestilence". That said those who did give more comprehensive details and symptom lists describe bubonic(even pneumonic) plague to a tee. Plus they've dug the DNA of yersinia pestis the bug that causes the disease out of contemporaneous graves.

    There were certainly other plagues that could well have been haemorrhagic virus types. There was even a really weird sweating sickness that ravaged England, but for some reason wasn't reported elsewhere, save for in Normandy, where even there it apparently only sickened and killed just the English inhabitants. There was another dose in the 17th century IIRC that also killed horses oddly enough. That said the main black death thing was almost certainly bubonic plague.


    I think the black death came in 3 forms , septicemic ,pneumonic and bubonic. The pneumonic may have been the big spreader rather than the bubonic.


  • #1791
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    hmmm wrote: »
    In hindsight probably the wrong decision for nursing homes, but I understand why they did it at the time - and hindsight makes criticism very easy.
    If it were in January, or February yep that could be an excuse or explanation alright, but in March it was gross incompetence. Hell we had our expert in infectious disease tell the public that asymptomatic spread wasn't a risk, again in March, a month after the WHO warned it was. Hell even the British red tops were talking about "superspreaders" in early February.

    But OK forget about hindsight. How was our testing, our contact tracing, our border controls, our quarantine protocols, last bloody month? Hell, they're half arsed today. We've done mostly mediocre at best, incompetent at worst, with the occasional and all too rare, pretty well thrown in.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



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  • #1792
    Snugglebunnies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 382 ✭✭Snugglebunnies


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    But we were told a runny nose wasnt a symptom!

    I had a block nose for a month in Jan/Feb which never progressed to anything else. It was very strange. Maybe I......

    40qtta.jpg

    Yeah, you probably just had a runny nose? This doctor had a runny nose and tested positive. There's a huge range and severity of symptoms which makes it very difficult to diagnose in some cases without a test.


  • #1793
    Higgins5473
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,396 ✭✭✭Higgins5473


    ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »
    Interview with the director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who contracted it.

    Key paragraph for me - "Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flu like symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives."

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

    Obviously raises questions about long-term morbidity as a result.

    Interesting he mentions that going on a ventilator increases your chances of dying. It's quite vague in what he means by this, is it that if you are put on a ventilator you are so far gone and so ill that you will most likely die or that the ventilator could actually cause further complications and cause death? We had been hearing so much about ventilators being vital for recovery, are there different schools of thought now on how best to treat people?

    "I was concerned I would be put on a ventilator immediately because I had seen publications showing it increases your chance of dying."


  • #1794
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    quokula wrote: »
    The pro-panic buying cohort weren’t correct though. The supply chain is still totally fine.

    As for the seriousness of the disease, the HSE were following the WHO who were following the evidence. Some people love a bit of disaster porn and are constantly claiming the sky is falling and even though they’re wrong 99% of the time they get to say I told you so for a once in a century event.

    The HSE don’t have that luxury, if they shut down the country every time there was a new virus somewhere in the world before it was potentially understood, Ireland would be totally on its knees by now after the shut downs for Ebola, SARS 1 and Mers in the last couple of decades.

    Ah come on, not comparable to Ebola or anything like that. This is a higly contagious virus and flights into Europe from affected areas were not being quaratined or even checked. Doesnt take a genius to figure out what was going to happen, WHO and China warned the world for months but no country listened, for whatever reason. Now the world is blaming WHO and China because their economies are in the ****ter..they both have their faults, but the world definitely could have heeded their advice a bit earlier


  • #1795
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    is_that_so wrote: »
    He said it wasn't consistent with their advice at that time but it was shortly after. The answer to that question is an opinion. I don't have the qualifications nor data to answer it is my answer although I believe the area of care centre outcomes is a whole lot more complicated than one decision.

    The graph of cases shows that they didn't appear in homes until two weeks after the first community cases. The CMO argues that it is unlikely to have been visitors but we will probably never know. Staff at multiple care settings is a more likely possibility.

    Here's a piece I found on HSE reports on nursing homes from a few weeks ago.


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/75-nursing-homes-need-intensive-support-during-covid-19-crisis-996144.html

    "He said it wasn't consistent with their advice at that time but it was shortly after"
    Considering that they have been overly cautious in everything else this excuse doesn't hold up. It seems very much that it was a power play - how dare the nursing homes act without his authority.

    "Staff at multiple care settings is a more likely possibility."
    Perhaps, but an even more likely possibility was the shifting of patients from hospitals into nursing home settings without first testing them.


  • #1796
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    hmmm wrote: »
    We had teachers shutting schools in a panic, and "won't you think of the children" types pushing for schools to be closed randomly. Agreed they wanted a co-ordinated approach at the time, or half the country would have been shut down haphazardly. In hindsight probably the wrong decision for nursing homes, but I understand why they did it at the time - and hindsight makes criticism very easy.
    If it just revolved around one decision sure but the transmissibility of it suggests it would have got in anyway. Add in the known varying quality of homes and issues with staffing levels, and hindsight also informs us some care locations didn't or couldn't respond to it and could never have dealt with any level of it. It's a hard lesson here however such decisions transpired but the fact that a sizeable minority kept it out makes them the basis for future best practice in the sector.


  • #1797
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    I was just thinking, how a lot of reports in Ireland and in much of the west, how COVID has mostly disappeared from the community, but still rampant in care homes and hopitals. When lockdowns start being lifted, wont asymptomatic care workers and hospitals workers just reintroduce the virus back into the community again?


  • #1798
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    polesheep wrote: »
    "He said it wasn't consistent with their advice at that time but it was shortly after"
    Considering that they have been overly cautious in everything else this excuse doesn't hold up. It seems very much that it was a power play - how dare the nursing homes act without his authority.

    "Staff at multiple care settings is a more likely possibility."
    Perhaps, but an even more likely possibility was the shifting of patients from hospitals into nursing home settings without first testing them.
    Nursing homes were not the only ones doing their own thing. As for the testing not sure that can be proven. If they were considered well enough to leave hospital a test would have been needed to confirm it.


  • #1799
    mloc123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,454 ✭✭✭mloc123


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Come on, Ebola kills 30%+ of all people infected. Most people who get SARS-2 only get mild symptoms and are never hospitalised.

    Yeah. He is using stats like this is exaggerate. 30% of people that end up in hospital with covid in the UK die, but only around 10% of cases (that we know of) need hospital. In realty that percentage is lower again due to the volume of people with no, or very very mild symptoms.

    I suspect 100% of ebola cases were hospitalised?


  • #1800
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    https://www.facebook.com/george.shaw.739/videos/2804859279633984/

    Really interesting video comparing initial public statement in the media from New Zealand government versus British government at the outset of the epidemic

    Of course ends with the dramatic statement from the NZ Prime minister announcing COVID has been eliminated and a news reporter in Britain saying UK is on track to have the highest death toll in Europe


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  • #1801
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Higgins5473 wrote: »
    Interesting he mentions that going on a ventilator increases your chances of dying. It's quite vague in what he means by this, is it that if you are put on a ventilator you are so far gone and so ill that you will most likely die or that the ventilator could actually cause further complications and cause death? We had been hearing so much about ventilators being vital for recovery, are there different schools of thought now on how best to treat people?


    Being ventilated can lead to neurological issues


This discussion has been closed.
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