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Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

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Comments

  • #1712
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Posting this for sole purposes of providing someone's view, I like to see all views.

    https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/
    From the above link:
    This may seem like a technical distinction, but its implications are profound. The ‘unmitigated’ scenarios modelled by (among others) Imperial College, and which tilted governments across the world into drastic action, relied on a presumption of continued exponential growth — that with a consistent R number of significantly above 1 and a consistent death rate, very quickly the majority of the population would be infected and huge numbers of deaths would be recorded. But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.
    I mentioned this on another thread. A team from Uppsala University in Sweden took the code from the Imperial College model and applied parameters appropriate to Sweden back in early April. The model predicted that there would be 40,000 deaths in that country by May 1st. if Sweden continued as they have with their current level of restrictions. In fact there have been a little over 3000 deaths making the model out by 1300%! Sweden, in fact, has about 3% more deaths than Ireland proportional to the population of both countries.


  • #1713
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    dublinman1990 wrote: »
    I want to ask about official policy for wearing face masks here whilst I am part of the general population as I am not a healthcare worker.
    Well you have definitely come to the wrong place.


    Try this

    https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/callback.html


  • #1714
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Posting this for sole purposes of providing someone's view, I like to see all views.

    https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate
    Miike wrote: »
    I had a long post typed out. Then I got to this part:
    I'm not even going to pass remark on this statement to be honest about it, because I wouldn't know where to start.

    Not disagreeing with you. He's 73 himself by the way!


  • #1715
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,764 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    dublinman1990 wrote: »
    I want to ask about official policy for wearing face masks here whilst I am part of the general population as I am not a healthcare worker.

    For my personal situation; I do get hayfever symptoms around this time of the year as I am allergic to grass pollen. If I get do it early this year; I am not sure if I am actively spreading around my droplets if I do cough or sneeze around other people & potentially infect them with the virus. I do not have Covid-19 symptoms at the moment. But as a precaution; I would want to lower the risk of spread to other people who are not wearing any form of protection on their face while outdoors.

    Is there any official update from the DoH or the HSE that the general population should be wearing face masks here very soon? Thanks.

    You dont need DOH or HSE guidance, nothing to stop you wearing one if you're worried you may be asymptomatic and might spread it when your hay fever ramps up.


  • #1716
    Miike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Miike


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Not disagreeing with you. He's 73 himself by the way!

    I saw that, but that's a heinous statement to make.


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  • #1717
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    dublinman1990 wrote: »
    I want to ask about official policy for wearing face masks here whilst I am part of the general population as I am not a healthcare worker.

    For my personal situation; I do get hayfever symptoms around this time of the year as I am allergic to grass pollen. If I get do it early this year; I am not sure if I am actively spreading around my droplets if I do cough or sneeze around other people & potentially infect them with the virus. I do not have Covid-19 symptoms at the moment. But as a precaution; I would want to lower the risk of spread to other people who are not wearing any form of protection on their face while outdoors.

    Is there any official update from the DoH or the HSE that the general population should be wearing face masks here very soon? Thanks.

    Stay well away from other people on the street and you/they won't catch it from each other! Not much data on catching it in short visits to shops etc, but the logic that wearing a mask would protect others probably can't be disputed - if you have Covid and cough or sneeze all over them. If you have it, and don't cough and sneeze all over them, but simply walk by them for a second in the shop, or walk by on the street, they probably won't get it. Scores will disagree with me. But community transmission is currently practically zero, notwithstanding most people not wearing masks and continuing to go out walking and doing a shop a couple of times a week.


  • #1718
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    PCR test is simply for diagnosis, although in the case of Covid because of its infectious rate turnaround time is of essence as you use this tool to track contacts. The most critical time is at the start of your lockdown.

    Actually anal swab would have been more effective as virus is presenting in stool 3-4 days before symptoms. This is why in countries like Australia they are now testing sewage for community prevalence.

    Serology test can only detect antibodies that are presents after your body has cleared the disease, its of no use for diagnosis. By that time its just too late.

    to do mass serology testing its the same as the molecular testing you need the infrastructure to be able to do it.

    I already talked about this near a month ago.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113126964&postcount=391

    Thanks I missed that post, it explains a lot.

    So essentially for the level of 15k serology tests a day we'd have to do what was done for the PCR testing, I.e. build the in fracture from scratch?

    Youd hope that's being done but given the PCR testing issues i guess not

    I guess I'm currently luck, I've taken a.twmporary 50% payout but can 100% work.from home, and live in a nice place with a lovely garden. Now we can travel 5k, I can get to my local beach for a walk, and to be honest could live like this for months.

    Sure theres stuff I'd like to do but it can wait. Sure I'd like my full pay back too :)

    I do wonder if positive antibody tests are going to become the new currency of wealth though, and if the wealthy private sector companies such as I work for will simply use their muscle to purchase these tests and vaccines when they arrive

    Thanks again I appreciate it when people make this stuff easy to understand


  • #1719
    Mike3287
    Closed Accounts Posts: 379 ✭✭Mike3287


    Stheno wrote: »
    Thanks I missed that post, it explains a lot.

    So essentially for the level of 15k serology tests a day we'd have to do what was done for the PCR testing, I.e. build the in fracture from scratch?

    Youd hope that's being done but given the PCR testing issues i guess not

    I guess I'm currently luck, I've taken a.twmporary 50% payout but can 100% work.from home, and live in a nice place with a lovely garden. Now we can travel 5k, I can get to my local beach for a walk, and to be honest could live like this for months.

    Sure theres stuff I'd like to do but it can wait. Sure I'd like my full pay back too :)

    I do wonder if positive antibody tests are going to become the new currency of wealth though, and if the wealthy private sector companies such as I work for will simply use their muscle to purchase these tests and vaccines when they arrive

    Thanks again I appreciate it when people make this stuff easy to understand

    They wont be that expensive

    £99 in UK, Abbot one too which is almost 99.9% accurate

    They will be on amazon and in boots soon, sure to bring down prices

    Saw a few on facebook getting them here through addresspal, interested to see there results, they are convinced they had it Dec/Jan

    https://bluehorizonbloodtests.co.uk/products/covid-19-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-antibody-home-test-kit?variant=32220935946336


  • #1720
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Mike3287 wrote: »
    They wont be that expensive

    £99 in UK, Abbot one too which is almost 99.9% accurate

    They will be on amazon and in boots soon, sure to bring down prices

    Saw a few on facebook getting them here through addresspal, interested to see there results, they are convinced they had it Dec/Jan

    https://bluehorizonbloodtests.co.uk/products/covid-19-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-antibody-home-test-kit?variant=32220935946336

    I saw those referenced before, didnt realise they were so accurate tbh

    I'd happily pay for that, I'd a dose in early March that was like my usual sinus infection I get a few times a year but on steroids, at one point I was sleeping 18 hours a day, and waking up completely wolly headed, also had lung pain, sweats etc

    My oh who is normally immune to my stuff also came down with a dose.

    My doctor at the time ( think it was week one of the ma no or testing) was confident I didnt have it as I'd no temperature, but my sinus symptoms were abnormal and she could not explain them, I ended up on antibiotics and steroids which helped and it took about a month plus to clear.

    Anyway enough of me, I can afford that test, but if public testing is not available and the price of peace of mind/what to do/ confidence travelling is being able to show antibody test results, what of those for whom 100 euro is a huge amount of money?
    In my own family 20% wouldn't have that to spare in three months


  • #1721
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    Any antibody testing worth its salt is going use an immunology analyser like a Centaur, Electsys, Liaison or Architect i.

    Anyone who works in a hospital lab will tell you the same thing, capacity is tight as it is doing routine hospital work such as troponin, hcg, Ferritin etc most Immunoassy are used in cardiac, anemia and oncology applications which are extremely important. Even doing day to day serology has an impact and you are looking to 500,000 tests in what sort of timescale?
    Mike3287 wrote: »
    They wont be that expensive

    £99 in UK, Abbot one too which is almost 99.9% accurate

    They will be on amazon and in boots soon, sure to bring down prices

    So Which Is Right?


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  • #1722
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,147 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    Has a single person without personal hygiene issues or who wasn't exposed to people around them openly coughing and sneezing got the virus? Asking for an entire bankrupt country.


  • #1723
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,773 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    804 new deaths in Brazil and over 10,000 new cases.

    Sad what's unfolding there. It's just reckless leadership.

    You get reckless leadership when you elect a totally mentalist, ultra right wing clown menace like Bolsonaro.


  • #1724
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Has a single person without personal hygiene issues or who wasn't exposed to people around them openly coughing and sneezing got the virus?

    Over 800 people have got this virus in care homes where their personal hygiene is catered for by professional carers who do not, generally, cough and sneeze all over them.
    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Asking for an entire bankrupt country.
    How are things in Zimbabwe then?


  • #1725
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Strumms wrote: »
    You get reckless leadership when you elect a totally mentalist, ultra right wing clown menace like Bolsonaro.
    Or Trump, or Johnson or maybe in the future Marine le Pen or the Dutch guy whose name I forget.


  • #1726
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Has a single person without personal hygiene issues or who wasn't exposed to people around them openly coughing and sneezing got the virus? Asking for an entire bankrupt country.

    What bankrupt country?

    Here in Ireland the dole stats will decrease by 20% in phase one when construction goes back

    Add another 5 % for hardware stores and garden centres

    My 50% payout and temp layoff will end soon so that's probably another 5%


  • #1727
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,112 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Has a single person without personal hygiene issues or who wasn't exposed to people around them openly coughing and sneezing got the virus? Asking for an entire bankrupt country.

    Yeah because there are countless feckers out there who don't understand personal hygiene and don't care about slobbering their manky hands around everything

    Personal bug bear of mine is spitting and this blowing their nose on the ground and I've seen what looks like respectable people doing it (disgusting habits)


  • #1728
    MipMap
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 435 ✭✭MipMap


    Bedtime

    Goodnight Strumms


  • #1729
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Has a single person without personal hygiene issues or who wasn't exposed to people around them openly coughing and sneezing got the virus? Asking for an entire bankrupt country.


    You're not asking for me, with your generalisms


  • #1730
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    MipMap wrote: »
    Just a question.

    If I read you correctly are you saying that the idea that we will ever have a cheap DIY anti body kit will never happen?
    A lot of people seem to think this is a possibility in the near future (Claire Byrne, Luke O'Neill)
    I reckon if they could be produced we would have seen them before for seasonal flu and the like. Never heard of them until Covid 19 came along.

    I already give my thoughts on this post that will save me time, although its possible it takes years to develop some of this stuff properly.

    Im not saying it will never happen, i'm just a tad skeptical.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113273839&postcount=4927


  • #1731
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Stheno wrote: »
    Thanks I missed that post, it explains a lot.

    So essentially for the level of 15k serology tests a day we'd have to do what was done for the PCR testing, I.e. build the in fracture from scratch?

    Youd hope that's being done but given the PCR testing issues i guess not

    You need the equipment for sure, if you are going war and the likes of Germany, UAE, S.Korea, Australia and NZ are bringing MG42 machine guns no point Ireland showing up with a spud gun.


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  • #1732
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Just heard people screaming outside, nothing odd, like drunken people... Except why are people out at this hour? People aren't going for family walks at this hour?

    I don't understand why people are meeting up.


  • #1733
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Here's a stupid question, will the virus ever die off? SARS no.1 did. But I believe that was with strict tracking and isolation in China, a country who was able to do that.

    How will we ever get this to die out on this side of the world?


  • #1734
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Here's a stupid question, will the virus ever die off? SARS no.1 did. But I believe that was with strict tracking and isolation in China, a country who was able to do that.

    How will we ever get this to die out on this side of the world?

    SARS-CoV-1 was able to be eventually contained as it was believed it only became contagious after developing symptoms, it was also a lot deadlier but maybe not as contagious than SARS-CoV-2. A virus only function is to reproduce and it relies on hosts to transmit it, killing the host is not good for either the host or the virus but spreading asymptomatically is the sweet spot for ultimate survival. If a virus overcooks and kills all its hosts then it will die off too.

    Countries like China, S. Korea etc learnt a lot from 2003, they had plans and measures already in place the west including Europe was unprepared In theory it can be eradicated, but it needs to be taken seriously to do this.

    The virus aside from being in europe is now in developing countries in Africa and India, Indonesia. Even if it was contained in Europe these other countries would be a source for some time to come.


  • #1735
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    SARS-CoV-1 was able to be eventually contained as it was believed it only became contagious after developing symptoms, it was also a lot deadlier but maybe not as contagious than SARS-CoV-2. A virus only function is to reproduce and it relies on hosts to transmit it, killing the host is not good for either the host or the virus but spreading asymptomatically is the sweet spot for ultimate survival. If a virus overcooks and kills all its hosts then it will die off too.

    Countries like China, S. Korea etc learnt a lot from 2003, they had plans and measures already in place the west including Europe was unprepared In theory it can be eradicated, but it needs to be taken seriously to do this.

    The virus aside from being in europe is now in developing countries in Africa and India, Indonesia. Even if it was contained in Europe these other countries would be a source for some time to come.

    Thanks, it's quite scary really. I don't think we'll ever get it under control. A comment made on Facebook and their dad was in hospital with other issues and said he didn't feel well, so was tested and came back positive. No fever or cough, just didn't feel all ok.

    Like how many people are out there looking out for the typical symptoms when you can have it and just not feel right.

    I had a runny nose back in February, which is very unusual for me, had no cold. I remember googling symptoms but then we were considered safe here in Ireland. I hate to think that I could have had it and spread it.


  • #1736
    kowloonkev
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,771 ✭✭✭kowloonkev


    I'm honestly starting to think that we are now entering the stage where the pendulum has swung back the other way and it's more costly to keep the lockdown going than it is to allow most people to go about their lives as normal and help the economy recover.

    The mortality rate is probably somewhere in the region of 0.2% when we consider the huge amount of untested people who have had it without symptoms or with very mild symptoms.

    The restrictions are not being lifted fast enough. It's time to make a plan for the vulnerable, such as not allowing over 70's into pubs and restaurants, but I think overall we know enough about this virus now to know it's not a threat to the vast majority of people, and the bigger threat is now a great global depression that will kill tens of millions of people.


  • #1737
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    twirlagig wrote: »
    Are there tests still being done in Germany?
    And if so, are the results from them included in the current figures now?
    Apologies if this has been asked and answered already

    Think they are going out every 2-3 days

    There a probably 3-4 day lag on these, but the total tests they are reporting these would be included. It seems the HSE dont really talk about these tests going to Germany now. we now know they are going there but its never mentioned.


    512249.PNG


  • #1738
    deise08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭deise08


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Just heard people screaming outside, nothing odd, like drunken people... Except why are people out at this hour? People aren't going for family walks at this hour?

    I don't understand why people are meeting up.


    Could they be for the darkness in to light walk?
    It's officially been cancelled but some people are doing their own thing.


  • #1739
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    kowloonkev wrote: »
    I'm honestly starting to think that we are now entering the stage where the pendulum has swung back the other way and it's more costly to keep the lockdown going than it is to allow most people to go about their lives as normal and help the economy recover.

    The mortality rate is probably somewhere in the region of 0.2% when we consider the huge amount of untested people who have had it without symptoms or with very mild symptoms.

    The restrictions are not being lifted fast enough. It's time to make a plan for the vulnerable, such as not allowing over 70's into pubs and restaurants, but I think overall we know enough about this virus now to know it's not a threat to the vast majority of people, and the bigger threat is now a great global depression that will kill tens of millions of people.

    The case numbers seem to be stabilising below 200 per day, I think by Friday they will have a determination if restrictions will be somewhat lifted... whether this is good enough remains to be seen.

    I would like to see restrictions lifted but doing so while having people still flying in that cant be trusted to do self isolation is quite frankly a recipe for disaster and another lockdown in about a months time. I think the government will unfortunately learn a lesson if they don't undertake 'managed isolation' going forward this week.


  • #1740
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    South Korea having to close stuff again.

    https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1259003903393312769?s=21


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  • #1741
    Newtown90
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭Newtown90


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Just heard people screaming outside, nothing odd, like drunken people... Except why are people out at this hour? People aren't going for family walks at this hour?

    I don't understand why people are meeting up.

    Same two house party's in our estate last night, got back from a walk for darkness into light at half 6 and one had restarted.

    Some people thinking it's great getting paid to party clearly and not giving a f##k about their neighbours.


This discussion has been closed.
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