Relaxation of restrictions Part II

ChelseaRentBoy · 07-05-2020 02:45PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

It was like that from the start, but it's not just kids there are well heeled people in Clontarf meeting up for walks etc and not social distancing, I see it all the time.
I think if we had an actual proper lockdown that was policed properly we could be talking about opening things back up a lot sooner. I have seen the Garda do absolutely nothing to enforce anything apart from stopping a few cars, but what do we expect, we have one of the most hands off police force in the world.

Where i live would be viewed as upper middle class so i know well it's all classes of people ignoring our soft lockdown rules.

It's not just nasty pieces of work that come from the so called lower classes/working class that are ruining it for us all, they are from all communities.

I actually seen a WhatApp video of the seafront in Clontarf last weekend and it was absolutely rammed with people.

lord quackinton · 07-05-2020 02:46PM

hmmm wrote: »

You've plucked that figure out of the air.

I don't think customers will go back to pubs or shops if they think a dangerous virus is in circulation, I'm not sure why you think simply removing restrictions will cause everything to spring back to how it was. I also don't think employees should be expected to return to jobs where they are potentially going to be exposed to a disease with unknown risks to them and their families.

The economic impact doesn't go away until we have control of the virus. Simply ignoring it and rushing to reopen is more than likely going to extend the economic pain.

so you wont answer my original question. why i am surprised.

it is noted that not not one lockdown fanatic answered my question.

2500 is using using uk and swedish death rates and rounding well up.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 02:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

okay then. Here's a list

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

With the exception of New Zealand (and lets not keep doing the nonsensical Ireland - NZ comparison), can you point to any country comparable to Ireland that mandatory quarantines its arrivals (rather than requires self isolation). I can point to Djibouti, Mongolia (21 days in a government facility followed by 14 days at home!!!), Albania and other such places, and if that's your model, then fine. Some, though by no means all, of our peer countries still prohibit arrivals that are not residents or citizens or on essential business (and, for now, I don't think that there would be too many of us with a problem with that), but mandatory quarantine is just not done anywhere

Why do you think no-one is doing it and why do you think that we should go out on a limb and mandatory quarantine arrivals? We have the legislation, we have the forms, we have the Gardai to follow up.....that's all we need

Here's a summary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic

And before someone says "yeh its just Wikipedia", all the citations and sources are at the bottom if they want to follow up.

07-05-2020 02:51PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Here's a summary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic

And before someone says "yeh its just Wikipedia", all the citations and sources are at the bottom if they want to follow up.

I don't see very much there relating to who has mandatory quarantine in some kind of facility (rather than self-quarantine) which is what this discussion was about. Can you answer the question I posed?

the kelt · 07-05-2020 03:01PM

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Where i live would be viewed as upper middle class so i know well it's all classes of people ignoring our soft lockdown rules.

It's not just nasty pieces of work that come from the so called lower classes/working class that are ruining it for us all, they are from all communities.

I actually seen a WhatApp video of the seafront in Clontarf last weekend and it was absolutely rammed with people.

How are they ruining it? Did we get told that the numbers are increasing because of the people seen in Whatsapp videos?

Or are the vast majority of numbers coming from nursing and care homes? Last nights numbers for example.

CruelSummer · 07-05-2020 03:01PM

I noticed countries such as Germany are forming 'travel alliances' with other countries seen to have performed well against Covid and allowing their people to holiday in those countries & vice versa...needless to say Ireland isn't on the list and it's not because of our case load. It's because our lock down is sticking out like a sore thumb to the rest of Europe...I am getting angrier by the day that they are not bringing forward some of the re-opening dates.
Pearse Doherty calls for Covid payments to be extended until...CHRISTMAS. They'd have the country bankrupted pretty quickly. We should go to the polls and get a new mandate from the electorate. Middle Ireland needs to understand they're being thrown under the bus, and their children to pay for ridiculous restrictions doing more damage than good. I saw a family all sitting couped up in the car today while one parent shopped. Children are being locked up and kept away from developing socially, emotionally and academically and looked at like pariahs when out. It's so wrong to do this to vulnerable children learning about the world...I heard one parent saying 'Keep away from PEOPLE, they're dangerous'.

lord quackinton · 07-05-2020 03:04PM

jmayo wrote: »

Yeah I am going to divulge personal information to some plonker on a web message board.

And you of course are an accountant.

If so how come you are one of those that refuse to acknowledge that we are an open economy almost totally dependent on foreign trade and foreign visitors ????
We can open every fooking thing up but lots of places will have no business.

BTW you are shyte at guessing also.

And if you did cursory glance at my post history you would realise what I do work at.

again another lock down merchant who refuses to answer simple questions.
i am an accountant, but believe what you like.
i dont look at peoples post history, if you want to be taken seriously on this thread and this goes for all posters, you should have to say at a minimum your job, your age bracket and location.
i am an accoutant, mid 30s and from rural tipp.

the government have essentially locked down thousands of businesses that have no reserves and are reliant on their weekly cash flow to operate.
when they open june/july/august they will have run up thousands in rent,council, creditors arrears. commercial landlords dont do freebies trust me on that.

the government plan to offer them 10K interest free loan is just giving them more debt they do not want.

ireland is reliant on the open markets and there is no guarantee that ending the lock down immediately will save a lot of businesses.

But all the publicans, hairdressers, small builders, creches etc etc want is a chance to fight for survival on their terms.
many small local businesses will go broke because they were ordered to close in the biggest government over reach ever in this country.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 03:04PM

Newstalk just now

Leo Varadkar rejected the idea of 0% VAT for restaurants and hospitality to boost the sector revival as it would go against EU rules.

Thats it. Helpful.

Thelonious Monk · 07-05-2020 03:06PM

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

I actually seen a WhatApp video of the seafront in Clontarf last weekend and it was absolutely rammed with people.

Yes I was one of those people at the seafront, on my own though. I don't have a problem with people being there but it was groups from different households not social distancing and gangs of teenagers down there etc. that I'd worry could spread the virus.
I mean if they're going to allow all this why bother with the lockdown at all?

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 03:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't see very much there relating to who has mandatory quarantine in some kind of facility (rather than self-quarantine) which is what this discussion was about. Can you answer the question I posed?

I am going to pick a sample of countries who have managed to control the spread of covid 19 to manageable levels. By the way our own "quarantine" is not enforceable as the government today admitted - they have said it is optional for people to fill out quarantine forms. The countries below have either a mixture of bans for foreign travellers and also mandatory quarantine for returning residents that can be verifiably checked such as for example the use of mobile phone location details.

China - Effective 28 March 2020, entry refused to non-Chinese citizens holding visas or residence permits still valid to the time of the announcement issued on 26 March. All specific visa regulations and entry by foreign nationals with APEC Business Travel Cards will also be suspended. Mandatory quarantine at the travellers own cost in a hotel close to the airport.

Hong Kong: Closed its borders to all non-residents.[16] All non-Hong Kong residents who have been in overseas countries/territories (i.e. excluding mainland China, Macau and Taiwan) in the past 14 days are barred from entering Hong Kong, with exceptions provided for certain groups of non-Hong Kong residents such as spouses and minor children of Hong Kong residents as well as Macao residents who are registered under the Macao scheme under agreement between the Macau and the Hong Kong Government, and passengers are no longer allowed to transit through Hong Kong International Airport until further notice starting from 25 March 2020. Non-Hong Kong residents arriving from mainland China, Macau and Taiwan who have not been in any overseas countries/territories in the past 14 days are exempted from the ban, but they are still subject to compulsory quarantine for 14 days same as all other arrivals to Hong Kong.[17]

Israel: Effective 12 March 2020, foreign travellers from any country are denied entry, unless a specific permit is given by the Foreign Ministry and the person can prove the ability to remain under home isolation for 14 days. Israeli citizens and permanents residents are required to enter 14-day home isolation.[2]

Jordan: Effective 17 March 2020, Jordan will stop all incoming and outgoing passenger flights into the country.[22]

Singapore: All foreigners are prohibited to entry and transit starting from 23 March, 11.59pm. Only people working in essential services like healthcare services and transport will be allowed into Singapore during this time.[39]

Taiwan: Effective 19 March, non-citizens are prohibited to enter unless specifically approve

Vietnam: Effective 22 March 2020, Entry of all foreigners is suspended until further notice. Temporary suspension of entry will also be applied to all overseas Vietnamese and their spouses and children who have been granted with certificate of visa exemption.[48]

Bulgaria: A temporary ban on entry imposed on all persons arriving from Italy, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and non-EU/Schengen countries. Visitors from some countries can transit through Bulgaria to return home

Portugal: Closed its border with Spain to non-essential travel such as tourism on 16 March

South Korea: Effective 13 April 2020, citizens of countries that restricted visa-free travel for South Koreans will not be allowed visa-free travel in South Korea.[171] Visas issued on or before 5 April are invalidated

Australia: The Australian Government has announced that any person – regardless of citizenship or residency status – travelling to Australia from any international destination will be required to undergo a compulsory 14-day quarantine, beginning from their date of arrival. The regulations, effective from 16 March 2020, also ban cruise ships arriving from international waters from docking at any Australian port

Ethiopia: Mandatory 14-day quarantine at the traveller's expense

New Zealand: beginning 15 March 2020, any person entering New Zealand from overseas, including New Zealand citizens, will be required to self-isolate for 14 days following entry, except for those travelling from the Pacific Islands unless they are displaying symptoms. All cruise ships have been banned until 30 June 2020.[192] Beginning 23:59 19 March 2020, New Zealand refused entry to non-citizens or permanent residents (with limited exceptions)

So now can you tell us what measures Ireland have implemented on travellers here?

boring accountant · 07-05-2020 03:12PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Newstalk just now

Leo Varadkar rejected the idea of 0% VAT for restaurants and hospitality to boost the sector revival as it would go against EU rules.

Thats it. Helpful.

I’m baffled by this since we had a 13.5% up until last year and there was no problem with the EU rules then.

I’m truly baffled.

easypazz · 07-05-2020 03:14PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Newstalk just now

Leo Varadkar rejected the idea of 0% VAT for restaurants and hospitality to boost the sector revival as it would go against EU rules.

Thats it. Helpful.

9% wasn't a problem the last time though.

A lot of bars and restaurants won't bother reopening with these distancing rules in place.

hmmm · 07-05-2020 03:14PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yes I was one of those people at the seafront, on my own though. I don't have a problem with people being there but it was groups from different households not social distancing and gangs of teenagers down there etc. that I'd worry could spread the virus.
I mean if they're going to allow all this why bother with the lockdown at all?

The data I've seen from China shows that clusters primarily occur in indoor settings. So while it's not great, I wouldn't be so concerned about groups outdoors. I'd be much more concerned about house parties, illicit hairdressers, people sitting in kitchens etc.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 03:16PM

easypazz wrote: »

9% wasn't a problem the last time though.

A lot of bars and restaurants won't bother reopening with these distancing rules in place.

Thats the huge issue. And no investor will invest or loan money to businesses because their revenue will halve once they re open (if they re open).

This is the biggest business destroying catastrophe they every faced.

In the meantime Germany are establishing travel alliances... God I never was so ashamed of our shambles as I am now.

07-05-2020 03:17PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I am going to pick a sample of countries who have managed to control the spread of covid 19 to manageable levels. By the way our own "quarantine" is not enforceable as the government today admitted - they have said it is optional for people to fill out quarantine forms. The countries below have either a mixture of bans for foreign travellers and also mandatory quarantine for returning residents that can be verifiably checked such as for example the use of mobile phone location details.

So now can you tell us what measures Ireland have implemented on travellers here?

Pretty eclectic mix of countries there.

We have the measures. It is just about enforcement. We just need to make what we have enforceable, which would be completely in line with all our EU partners, and it really doesn't seem like it would be rocket science. But we need to move away from this nonsense idea of mandatory quaanatine in some facility or hotel somewhere

BY the way, have no issues at all with restricting travel, for now, to residents, citizens and essential trips. Until such time as we can partner up with other EU countries to begin to allow tourism within the block

(oh, and I wish everyone would stop with the NZ comparisons!)

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 03:19PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Thats the huge issue. And no investor will invest or loan money to businesses because their revenue will halve once they re open (if they re open).

This is the biggest business destroying catastrophe they every faced.

In the meantime Germany are establishing travel alliances... God I never was so ashamed of our shambles as I am now.

This post suggests you didn't need to give yourself much of a push!

easypazz · 07-05-2020 03:21PM

boring accountant wrote: »

I’m baffled by this since we had a 13.5% up until last year and there was no problem with the EU rules then.

I’m truly baffled.

9% it was, back up to 13.5% now.

And right now who cares about EU rules for ~6 months or so.

Will Spain be throwing their toys out of the pram when neither country is really allowing people in or out anyway and we are not competing for the same tourists.

Hardly.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 03:21PM

boring accountant wrote: »

I’m baffled by this since we had a 13.5% up until last year and there was no problem with the EU rules then.

I’m truly baffled.

The EU have also said they are going to overlook a whole host of state aid rules to help countries deal with covid 19.

https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/covid_19.html

So yes it is baffling. But not unexpected. Its more evidence of our political class trying to be good Europeans when they don't even have to. Old habits die hard.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 03:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty eclectic mix of countries there.

We have the measures. It is just about enforcement. We just need to make what we have enforceable, which would be completely in line with all our EU partners, and it really doesn't seem like it would be rocket science. But we need to move away from this nonsense idea of mandatory quaanatine in some facility or hotel somewhere

BY the way, have no issues at all with restricting travel, for now, to residents, citizens and essential trips. Until such time as we can partner up with other EU countries to begin to allow tourism within the block

(oh, and I wish everyone would stop with the NZ comparisons!)

We have zero measures, zero.

Our quarantine is optional! Its an opt in system. 1/3rd of air travellers and 1/4 of ferry travellers opted out.

Many countries ban non residents coming in. We don't do that.

Zero controls at the borders. This is why we are stuck in a no mans land. We cannot hope to ever reduce new infections to anything manageable with open borders. We're wasting our time even trying.

07-05-2020 03:30PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We have zero measures, zero.

Our quarantine is optional! Its an opt in system. 1/3rd of air travellers and 1/4 of ferry travellers opted out.

Many countries ban non residents coming in. We don't do that.

Zero controls at the borders. This is why we are stuck in a no mans land. We cannot hope to ever reduce new infections to anything manageable with open borders. We're wasting our time even trying.

Some of our EU partners do not ban non-residents, some do. I personally don't have a problem with banning non residents or non-citizens for a few weeks until travel across the EU becomes more of the norm. But we are going round in circles here. We just need to make mandatory what we have. It really doesn't seem like it is that complicated

Do you agree that if this was mandatory, and the AGS followed up, then it would be sufficient? Or are you, like some here, going to be satisfied with nothing less than the inside of a hotel room for 14 days for all arrivals?

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 03:31PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Some of our EU partners do not ban non-residents, some do. I personally don't have a problem with banning non residents or non-citizens for a few weeks until travel across the EU becomes more of the norm. But we are going round in circles here. We just need to make mandatory what we have. It really doesn't seem like it is that complicated

Do you agree that if this was mandatory, and the AGS followed up, then it would be sufficient? Or are you, like some here, going to be satisfied with nothing less than the inside of a hotel room for 14 days for all arrivals?

If it was mandatory and followed up, while not perfect, I would be satisfied.

road_high · 07-05-2020 03:51PM

easypazz wrote: »

9% wasn't a problem the last time though.

A lot of bars and restaurants won't bother reopening with these distancing rules in place.

Vat rate isn’t the issue. The issue is the lockdown that is forcing them to remain closed indefinitely thereby stifling their businesses.
If there’s no customers then no amount of vat rate tinkering will help.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 04:00PM

growleaves wrote: »

What are travel alliances?

Travel zone between countries with low or manageable levels of coronavirus, I would imagine. Not sure which countries Germany plan to include in theirs. Portugal may be one as they have it relatively under control. Possibly Croatia another.

NZ and Australia already have one. As long as both countries maintain strict controls on their external borders, there is little risk of citizens from both countries going back and forth, including on holidays.

ixoy · 07-05-2020 04:02PM

Cafés and restaurants will likely have to start getting much more into the delivery / take-away model than they have been. One of my local ones would, if it had to obey social distancing, have room for maybe two tables, instead of ten. They've no real take-away feature bar coffee but they'll need to do something as they can't possibly get by with about four customers max.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 04:04PM

growleaves wrote: »

What are travel alliances?

Basically Germany recognises that this whole self isolate for 14 days after your arrival is not a way forward for travel. So within EU, a handful of countries like Austria, Germany, Czech Republic Norway etc are coming together and are basically saying hey, you send us your citizens for a visit, regardless of how long the visit is we can allow them in and let them do their thing. No 14 day isolation required.

Unfortunately it seems that Ireland has not been approached for this.

We are slowly cocooning ourselves as a country without even knowing this

Arghus · 07-05-2020 04:06PM

seamus wrote: »

The notion that we've had lockdown and done nothing with it, is completely wrong. The assertion that our case numbers will skyrocket is based on nothing.

When you say that it is based on nothing, is there evidence to suggest it potentially won't happen?

Surely, it's entirely possible - considering we would have at one stage only had a tiny handful of cases, that eventually led to exponential growth.

We can reasonably assume that there's more cases now in the country than where we were in February - and that was enough to let the virus get a foothold

The assertion isn't really based on nothing: It's based on previously observed growth patterns and behaviours in the spread of the virus.

And do we have examples to prove that virus won't grow dramatically again? It appears to me as if this can't be stated definitively either, as most countries in a similar situation to ourselves have only just tentatively emerged from lockdown, so reliable data about what the future holds is scant enough. Though we do know that the virus is highly transmissible and has spread quickly and easily before.

I know you are a genuine poster BTW, not a half-wit like some in here.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 04:10PM

Arghus wrote: »

When you say that it is based on nothing, is there evidence to suggest it potentially won't happen?

Surely, it's entirely possible - considering we would have at one stage only had a tiny handful of cases, that eventually led to exponential growth.

We can reasonably assume that there's more cases now in the country than where we were in February - and that was enough to let the virus get a foothold

The assertion isn't really based on nothing: It's based on previously observed growth patterns and behaviours in the spread of the virus.

And do we have examples to prove that virus won't grow dramatically again? It appears to me as if this can't be stated definitively either, as most countries in a similar situation to ourselves have only just tentatively emerged from lockdown, so reliable data about what the future holds is scant enough. Though we do know that the virus is highly transmissible and has spread quickly and easily before.

I know you are a genuine poster BTW, not a half-wit like some in here.

Good post apart from the dig at the end. The half wits are in government by the way. Couldn't run a cornershop let alone a country.

road_high · 07-05-2020 04:13PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Thats the huge issue. And no investor will invest or loan money to businesses because their revenue will halve once they re open (if they re open).

This is the biggest business destroying catastrophe they every faced.

In the meantime Germany are establishing travel alliances... God I never was so ashamed of our shambles as I am now.

I feel Harris, Varadkar, Holohan et al are all civil service pen pushers- not one of them has had to run their business with the realities of paying staff, overheads, rates, rent etc and cope when it goes tits up. I’ve watched my parents run small little businesses and doing things to survive.
Varadkar was only ever Taoiseach when the economy has been booming so he hasn’t a notion how to handle the tough times. Donohoe is a wet blanket, he wouldn’t be able for their moralising ****e. I say this as a FG voter so I’m not saying it to score political points. I think heather humphreys gets it, she understands business but the other flutes haven’t the first clue nor care. Leo is interested in the big shots in Europe and places like the UN- full of moralising virtue signallers he craves adulation from.

07-05-2020 04:15PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Travel zone between countries with low or manageable levels of coronavirus, I would imagine. Not sure which countries Germany plan to include in theirs. Portugal may be one as they have it relatively under control. Possibly Croatia another.

NZ and Australia already have one. As long as both countries maintain strict controls on their external borders, there is little risk of citizens from both countries going back and forth, including on holidays.

I would anticipate that this 'zone' would ultimately expand to be the equivalent to the EU & UK & EEA, as countries are added. Probably over the summer

gozunda · 07-05-2020 04:16PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does anybody else agree that lockdown will kill more people than we are "saving"?

First of all, I'm not sure how much we are realistically saving anyways. I genuinely believe that the vast majority of people dying from Covid are already fairly close to death anyways. People in nursing homes and elderly with multiple issues such as heart disease, diabetes. Maybe I'm heartless for thinking it and saying it, but there is only so much we can do to protect people at an advanced age with multiple illnesses. And all the stats are pointing in that direction. Over 90% dead are over 65. A lot of those already had cancer, diabetes, heart disease, COPD etc. Over 60% deaths are nursing homes. As a result of this lockdown, lots and lots of medical check ups, procedures and treatments have been cancelled. God knows how many of those will result in deaths. Undetected cancer, untreated cancer etc. This could be young people that could have been saved for the longer term.We also now have over 1M people on the dole. This number is still rising. With Tony suggesting that lockdown could be extended again, that number might rise even further. Completely unsustainable. The recession is going to be huge. And thousands will die either directly or indirectly as a result. And that is just touching the surface. Funds will be cut for just about everything. Homeless crisis will escalate. People will lose their homes, jobs and many other things.The best course of action is to get the nursing homes under control and cocoon the elders. Everyone else must start living again. If the numbers increase, we need to make peace with that. Its better for us in the long term.

While we are sitting at home, bored out of our minds, its hard to understand that we are killing thousands of people in the years ahead, but its exactly what we are doing.

Simple answer is no. Again just to reiterate - the restrictions are not only about deaths. The restrictions are in place to help reduce the numbers of infected and to stop our health services being overwhelmed.

Which bit do you not understand?

If anyone is feckless or bored - then go do something constructive. Go volunteer and help with the community effort and perhaps stop whinging and moaning about things largely outside our control. Doing do helps no one.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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