Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Pitch n Putt · 07-05-2020 10:28AM

is_that_so wrote: »

CMO seems to be looking for signs of low hospital and ICU admissions. They also want to see a much smaller daily new case load. I don't know what that is and I can't see him ever giving a number just being encouraged, hopeful or concerned.
It's being paid for by the surplus and the money that had already been borrowed. Once that's exhausted we'll get more and there will be a lot of extremely cheap money about for that.

No point waiting for smaller daily case load if that’s what they’re doing

The constant change in testing criteria will mean that numbers are going to stay at similar levels or increase.

Simple maths will say the more u test the more likely you are to get positive results.

Active cases is where the focus should be. That’s dependant on good testing system and quick results turn around. Again another problem for us.

We can’t progress to the CMO/HSE and NPHET plan if they can’t get these sorted and they’ve had 8 weeks already but we live on in lockdown with the promise of 100k tests per week

If they only done 30000 tests with max 48 hr results turn around it would be far more beneficial than talking rubbish about numbers that will never be efficiently achieved.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 10:29AM

We can't close the borders.
We can't stop people coming from NI.
We can't stop NI people flying en masse to London or returning and then heading south for a day trip or round of golf.
We can't stop Travellers coming from London for large gatherings.

At what stage does the penny drop that we could remain in this half arsed farcical "lockdown" infinitely and numbers will remain relatively high.

You either go full lockdown or don't bother and go for a more targeted approach.

gozunda · 07-05-2020 10:31AM

road_high wrote: »

Seriously depressing reading last night the increased figures here- while dropping on the Continent and life getting back to normal. WTF are we at? The lockdown here has been strict, well supported and very well adhered to. Nothing much is open. How the fcuk are we doing so poorly?

It only takes a few idiots who don't give a proverbial about others to keep the figures increasing. I agree the majority are sticking with what has been asked of all of us but the fact that the disease in highly contagious and some who dont care is keep going to bite us. That said the figures do seem to be heading in the right way.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 10:33AM

Lad on newstalk

"I am self employed, my business has been put on hold due to lockdown, I am divorced with 3 kids and have custody of them for 3 days a week, my covid19 payment support has been rejected. I am getting by through the means of credit card.

My friend is temporarily unemployed and got his covid19 350 euro immediately, his wife hasnt been affected and still works and earns over 120k per year. How does this happen"

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 10:34AM

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

No point waiting for smaller daily case load if that’s what they’re doing

The constant change in testing criteria will mean that numbers are going to stay at similar levels or increase.

Simple maths will say the more u test the more likely you are to get positive results.

Active cases is where the focus should be. That’s dependant on good testing system and quick results turn around. Again another problem for us.

We can’t progress to the CMO/HSE and NPHET plan if they can’t get these sorted and they’ve had 8 weeks already but we live on in lockdown with the promise of 100k tests per week

If the only done 30000 tests with max 48 hr results turn around it would be far more beneficial than talking rubbish about numbers that will never be efficiently achieved.

Testing is now under control by the sounds of things with capacity up to 84,000 a week. Testing seems to be 4 days from swab to result, with the lab work at a max of 48 hours in the majority of cases. You'd expect a rise in cases with the definition change but the overall trend is downward. I think this and the hospital numbers are more relevant than actual numbers.

hetuzozaho · 07-05-2020 10:34AM

Discokiiid wrote: »

What do we think about shopping centres? The likes of normal stores? River island , JD Etc?

Awful places, never liked them.

Paddygreen · 07-05-2020 10:35AM

We should only do what Minister Simon Harris and his round table of highly esteemed experts say we should do. At the moment Simon says that the phases of lockdown release will eventually mean that we will still have to like social distance even when the lockdown is over.. Get used to the new normal guys. Lockdown will be back again until a vaccine is available and EVERYONE gets their shot. I mean everyone. Personally I would hold down anyone who doesn't want it while they are getting their shot.

ixoy · 07-05-2020 10:37AM

road_high wrote: »

Seriously depressing reading last night the increased figures here- while dropping on the Continent and life getting back to normal. WTF are we at?

Are we not testing more? So of course, if we do, we'll find more when we've reduced the criteria for testing. These sorts of cases were always there, just hadn't met the criteria to be eligible before.

07-05-2020 10:37AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We can't close the borders.
We can't stop people coming from NI.
We can't stop NI people flying en masse to London or returning and then heading south for a day trip or round of golf.
We can't stop Travellers coming from London for large gatherings.

At what stage does the penny drop that we could remain in this half arsed farcical "lockdown" infinitely and numbers will remain relatively high.

You either go full lockdown or don't bother and go for a more targeted approach.

Testing (with 24 hour results), tracing & isolating, airport screening, face coverings. We are way behind on this stuff, and would support a much smarter re-opening

Tenzor07 · 07-05-2020 10:38AM

Wow the fallout from the Prof. Ferguson incident is really inspiring people to write stuff like this:

Draconian stay-at-home orders and shutting all non-essential businesses had little effect on fighting coronavirus in Europe, according to a study.

But the same scientists discovered closing schools and banning all mass gatherings did work in halting outbreaks across the continent.

University of East Anglia researchers now say relaxing the stay-at-home policy and letting some businesses reopen could be the UK's first step to easing lockdown.

The findings throw into question whether Britain's total lockdown - announced on March 23 - was necessary.

Other top scientists have claimed Britain's COVID-19 crisis peaked and started to decline before lockdown began, arguing that Number 10's drastic policy to shut the UK down was wrong.

It comes after Boris Johnson yesterday confirmed that strict rules imposed under the six-week coronavirus lockdown will start to be eased on Monday.

seamus · 07-05-2020 10:38AM

road_high wrote: »

How the fcuk are we doing so poorly?

We're not.
Deaths and cases are on a downward trend and have been since mid-April.

At the current rate we're looking at 100-150 cases/day or so on 18th May, even with the expansion in testing.

FishOnABike · 07-05-2020 10:39AM

is_that_so wrote: »

What precise law can they use to do this?

Health Act 1947 and amendments allows for detention of a person who is a probable risk of spreading infection, non cooperation is an offense.

road_high · 07-05-2020 10:39AM

ixoy wrote: »

Are we not testing more? So of course, if we do, we'll find more when we've reduced the criteria for testing. These sorts of cases were always there, just hadn't met the criteria to be eligible before.

Where does it end though? Keep testing more and widening the criteria = get more cases.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 10:39AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Probably because in plenty of places on the continent people literally couldn't leave there homes while geniuses on here were harping on about a police state (despite having less strict restrictions than many places) and bragging about how the lockdown ended for them on a random date that suited them.

Are day trippers from other countries allowed go where they want in these continental countries? Or their Travelling Community or similar ethnic minority exempt from everyone elses laws?

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 10:40AM

FishOnABike wrote: »

Health Act 1947 and amendments allows for detention of a person who is a probable risk of spreading infection, non cooperation is an offense.

Good luck attempting to prove that. Refusing to say doesn't even get to court.

Ginger n Lemon · 07-05-2020 10:41AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

We should only do what Minister Simon Harris and his round table of highly esteemed experts say we should do. At the moment Simon says that the phases of lockdown release will eventually mean that we will still have to like social distance even when the lockdown is over.. Get used to the new normal guys. Lockdown will be back again until a vaccine is available and EVERYONE gets their shot. I mean everyone. Personally I would hold down anyone who doesn't want it while they are getting their shot.

Forget vaccine. You really need to activate brain cells and forget the vaccine. Below is from official EU commission website

"
The text of the resolution just passed by a sufficient number in the Council of Europe Parliament says among other things, "In order to promote their patented drugs and vaccines against flu, pharmaceutical companies influenced scientists and official agencies, responsible for public health standards to alarm governments worldwide and make them squander tight health resources for inefficient vaccine strategies and needlessly expose millions of healthy people to the risk of an unknown amount of side-effects of insufficiently tested vaccines. The "bird-flu"-campaign (2005/06) combined with the "swine-flu"-campaign seem to have caused a great deal of damage not only to some vaccinated patients and to public health-budgets, but to the credibility and accountability of important international health-agencies."

07-05-2020 10:42AM

FishOnABike wrote: »

Health Act 1947 and amendments allows for detention of a person who is a probable risk of spreading infection, non cooperation is an offense.

That will go down well with someone driving across the border

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 10:42AM

road_high wrote: »

Where does it end though? Keep testing more and widening the criteria = get more cases.

More cases => contact trace => isolate => rinse =fewer cases in time.

drunkmonkey · 07-05-2020 10:43AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Lad on newstalk

"I am self employed, my business has been put on hold due to lockdown, I am divorced with 3 kids and have custody of them for 3 days a week, my covid19 payment support has been rejected. I am getting by through the means of credit card.

My friend is temporarily unemployed and got his covid19 350 euro immediately, his wife hasnt been affected and still works and earns over 120k per year. How does this happen"

They shouldn't have been rejected, it's not means tested, there's more to that story. It was a complete free for all, anyone I know applied got it.

tobefrank321 · 07-05-2020 10:43AM

seamus wrote: »

We're not.
Deaths and cases are on a downward trend and have been since mid-April.

At the current rate we're looking at 100-150 cases/day or so on 18th May, even with the expansion in testing.

And once restrictions are lifted that will go to 200-300 cases a day in a couple of weeks.

Thankfully about 95% will be mild and treatable at home.
About 4% may end up in hospital unless they are targeted to stay at home pre lifting of restrictions. And 1% will end up in ICU unless they are also targeted to remain cocooned.

There's no need to worry about 95% of cases. Its the 5% we need to be worried about. Its called targeting.

And if we could target these people before they get sick that would be really smart.

Instead of a dumb medieval type lockdown of everyone which isn't even a proper lockdown.

road_high · 07-05-2020 10:47AM

is_that_so wrote: »

More cases => contact trace => isolate => rinse =fewer cases in time.

Is the isolating the missing link? Are all the people tested positive isolating effectively?? I’d think not given the cluster scenarios we are seeing. In families, factory, and care settings.

kenmm · 07-05-2020 10:47AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Are day trippers from other countries allowed go where they want in these continental countries? Or their Travelling Community or similar ethnic minority exempt from everyone elses laws?

Its not travellers or day trippers that are a problem - its a constant stream local residents outside doing clearly non essential stuff. Thats what I see from my apartment window or when I make essential trips.

easypazz · 07-05-2020 10:48AM

road_high wrote: »

Seriously depressing reading last night the increased figures here- while dropping on the Continent and life getting back to normal. WTF are we at? The lockdown here has been strict, well supported and very well adhered to. Nothing much is open. How the fcuk are we doing so poorly?

Purely anecdotal but people went in and panic bought all around them.

Then the meat factories couldn't keep up and had extra shifts, overtime etc. and now they are infected.

ixoy · 07-05-2020 10:50AM

Be curious now that with the reduced testing criteria, will the percentage of confirmed cases that require hospitalization drop. Intuitively it makes sense they would - if you've only got one symptom then you probably have a less severe does than those who had two so you're less likely to end up in hospital. That'd be a very important metric as well.

07-05-2020 10:50AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Ahhh, another day in lockdown.

So, rangers in Wicklow Mountains National Park have been told to stay at home due to social distancing. They have the most isolated job on the planet as you can appreciate, wondering around the forest by themselves.

Here, we will be laughed at for many years to come with our nonsense approach.

News update - German Bundesliga will resume May 15th (1 week from now). 198 players will take to the pitch and break all social distancing rules Simon Harris wishes for for about 90 minutes.

The league will operate in a bubble with constant testing and isolation outside of the team bubble. If someone from Hoffenheim were to test positive for example, the game against Union Berlin would also be cancelled

drunkmonkey · 07-05-2020 10:52AM

easypazz wrote: »

Purely anecdotal but people went in and panic bought all around them.

Then the meat factories couldn't keep up and had extra shifts, overtime etc. and now they are infected.

It's a Bacon factory caused the most they don't handle beef. They had temperature checks but staff were encouraged to take Panadol/neurogen etc to bring their temp down before coming in to get their temperature checked.
It was nothing but bacon products left on the shelves yesterday here, people are being encouraged now to buy beef and cheese as we've an over supply..
Cowboy steaks on offer in Supervalue this week ; )

07-05-2020 10:54AM

road_high wrote: »

Seriously depressing reading last night the increased figures here- while dropping on the Continent and life getting back to normal. WTF are we at? The lockdown here has been strict, well supported and very well adhered to. Nothing much is open. How the fcuk are we doing so poorly?

We are testing more than anyone currently and the peak was at least two weeks after most of Europe

Cork Boy 53 · 07-05-2020 10:54AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

We should only do what Minister Simon Harris and his round table of highly esteemed experts say we should do. At the moment Simon says that the phases of lockdown release will eventually mean that we will still have to like social distance even when the lockdown is over.. Get used to the new normal guys. Lockdown will be back again until a vaccine is available and EVERYONE gets their shot. I mean everyone. Personally I would hold down anyone who doesn't want it while they are getting their shot.

While wearing your hazmat suit of course.

FishOnABike · 07-05-2020 10:55AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm not saying all the public are saints far from it but this discussion was raised in the Irish times last week amongst other papers, whenever things don't look to be going right the blame is pushed back from the dept of health onto general public, your doing great but not quite there and now this comes to light.

A few own goals ?

The statement regarding the disclosure added: “Unfortunately I can give many examples of breaches of health and safety in (name of facility removed) including inappropriate, stringent rationing of PPE; extremely poor quality PPE; the non-availability of PPE; inadequate and inconsistent visitor restrictions; the transfer and movement of patients to/from contaminated areas; the failure to identify symptomatic patients; delays and failures to isolate symptomatic patients and patients confirmed as COVID-19 positive; conflicts and poor communication between nursing and medical teams regarding patient management and care; no testing plan; and withholding information from the families of residents."

Very shortsighted. Section 43 of the Health Act 1947 places a presumption of civil liability on the defendant if a person has failed to take required precautions and caused another to be infected.

This is something which companies and employers would also need to be very mindful of when people return to the workplace. If companies / employers do not take required precautions there may be a presumption of civil liability against them.

the kelt · 07-05-2020 10:57AM

road_high wrote: »

Seriously depressing reading last night the increased figures here- while dropping on the Continent and life getting back to normal. WTF are we at? The lockdown here has been strict, well supported and very well adhered to. Nothing much is open. How the fcuk are we doing so poorly?

Look at the figures from last night and you still see how big and issue the care home settings are, this isn’t the fault of joe public as some tryo to make out.

Again we are still not up to the level of testing which was promised several weeks ago.

Whilst as professor Niall Moynagh points out our turnaround time from testing to result is still way too slow, officially 2 to 4 days, anecdotally much longer.

Lockdown is just one aspect of this, all the other things need to follow through also but of course people with a simplistic view on things will see Sharon on Facebook sharing videos of a house party or people in a park and claim that’s the reason etc etc.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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