Relaxation of restrictions Part II

frillyleaf · 07-05-2020 01:16AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

I don’t think that’s good enough, putting people in a hotel guarantees protecting every else and charge the individual for it ensures the are reminded of the seriousness of the situation.

I know you won’t agree or want to believe this could happen because of your personal situation but at some stage the government will get jack of extending the lockdown and they will do this.

They done it in other countries that have been successful at reducing numbers, it comes to the point governments don’t trust minority of citizens anymore than minority of citizens trust government. But they will push for the greater good and the majority will support them.

They won’t be able to extend the lockdown, restrictions will lift on the 18th. People won’t listen if they did, everything is far more relaxed now

ceadaoin. · 07-05-2020 02:00AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1257723650469441536

Good man Andrew.

Yeah good man. He is making the right decision based on where New York is in their outbreak. Other states are in a position to begin reopening. You don't accept that though and instead seem to want the whole world under lockdown. Good man yourself.

bettyoleary · 07-05-2020 02:16AM

Penfailed wrote: »

There were three or four replies giving good advice. Did you miss them?

Irony;)

mandrake04 · 07-05-2020 03:49AM

JRant wrote: »

The government are though, that's the problem for many.

There will be no real "easing" of restrictions until mid July at the earliest according to their own road map. You might be allowed see your family by then, sure you might even be lucky enough to get a haircut but that's about the size of it. Even phase 5 is a complete cod.

Yeah if you can read you get that, they admitted on TV that they are being very conservative and very cautious. I think the current numbers in the current time frame are better than they expected but nothing worth celebrating.

I'm amazed people here think they are going on holiday this year. They are clearly delusional. Although government will be probably be throwing small titbits like they did with the over 70s and 2km to 5km, its a long way to any normality.

JRant wrote: »

We have no defined metrics on when we move to the next phase of back for that matter. Well apart the CMO and his vague "the numbers are not where we want them to do". He should bloody well tell us what the numbers should be not giving us vague wishy-washy BS.

I would say they looking for single or low double digits, Ideally below 20 per day. Compared to the daily cases that made their decision to extend 5th May its only dropped around 20-25% you would imagine they hope for at least a 70% drop before they would consider it lifting the restrictions for phase 1, its doable but it depends on those number coming down significantly this week.

They are still sending some samples to Germany but the turnaround times is about twice what it should be.

mandrake04 · 07-05-2020 04:23AM

frillyleaf wrote: »

They won’t be able to extend the lockdown, restrictions will lift on the 18th. People won’t listen if they did, everything is far more relaxed now

The case numbers are not that much better than they were on the 1st May when they decided it’s not good enough, still 37 people died yesterday. Obviously the virus is not relaxed any...so your wrong there.

Ok so they ease restrictions on 18th possibly still 150-200 cases per day, 2 weeks later numbers go up and it’s another lockdown.

So relaxed

ceadaoin. · 07-05-2020 04:33AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

The case numbers are not that much better than they were on the 1st May when they decided it’s not good enough, still 37 people died yesterday. Obviously the virus is not relaxed any...so your wrong there.

Ok so they ease restrictions on 18th possibly still 150-200 cases per day, 2 weeks later numbers go up and it’s another lockdown.

So relaxed

So,what? stay shut down for possibly years until there's a vaccine or the virus burns out? Not possible. At some stage we have to face the fact that this isn't going anywhere. 99%+ of people are going to be fine. Allow those at higher risk to stay sheltered, with government financial support if they can't work. Everyone else just get on with things, accepting the risk. Reduce this risk as much as possible by wearing masks and continued social distancing in public as much as is reasonable, practicing good hygiene etc. I can't see any other option.

The alternative is society being absolutely ****ed for generations and many more lives lost and destroyed than if the virus had been allowed to run unchecked (which also wouldn't have been a good option). The point wasn't to wait out the virus.

mandrake04 · 07-05-2020 05:08AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

So what, stay shut down for possibly years? At some stage we have to face the fact that this isn't going anywhere. 99%+ of people are going to be fine. Allow those at higher risk to stay sheltered, with government financial support if they can't work. Everyone else just get on with things, accepting the risk. Reduce this risk as much as possible by wearing masks and continued social distancing in public as much as is reasonable, practicing good hygiene etc. I can't see any other option.

The alternative is society being absolutely ****ed for generations.

Not years possibly to mid-late June

I seem to remember that Ireland locked down on 13th March because they hit 90 cases in total, they are now getting 3 times that a day and they still got over 6000 active cases.

A week later NZ had 106 cases and they shut down for 33 days, they have 2-3 cases per day and 130 active cases.

Australia had 500 cases and they didn't really shut down as much as NZ and they have less than 20 cases per day.

Ireland clearly has a problem that needs to be fixed, I know the growth has slowed somewhat but there is little sign of victory but with a little more time it could achieve that.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-05-2020 07:08AM

People complaining about Ireland...

Meanwhile in the UK

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/picnics-and-sunbathing-on-cards-as-pm-expected-to-allow-more-time-outside

With the stringent restrictions due to be reviewed on Thursday – and details to be announced on Sunday – the prime minister is expected to change the rules so that people would be able to leave the house repeatedly in a single day, so long as they keep a safe distance from anyone from outside their household.

The UK can not realistically open anything

Meanwhile the continued high number of new Covid-19 cases – 6,111 on Tuesday – is likely to deter ministers from more radical steps.

Their figures are shocking and represent the biggest threat to this country containing the virus.

Careful movement forward but with the knowledge restrictions will be re-imposed is the way to go.

Which is our plan.

Which is great.

JRant · 07-05-2020 07:17AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Not years possibly to mid-late June

I seem to remember that Ireland locked down on 13th March because they hit 90 cases in total, they are now getting 3 times that a day and they still got over 6000 active cases.

A week later NZ had 106 cases and they shut down for 33 days, they have 2-3 cases per day and 130 active cases.

Australia had 500 cases and they didn't really shut down as much as NZ and they have less than 20 cases per day.

Ireland clearly has a problem that needs to be fixed, I know the growth has slowed somewhat but there is little sign of victory but with a little more time it could achieve that.

The problem is they are only really testing healthcare workers and nursing / residential homes this past 2 weeks. These are areas where known clusters are located. It will probably take another 2 weeks to finish these places and get the results back. From the figures released yesterday almost 63% of all deaths are from nursing and residential homes. That's appalling and shows how poorly those areas have been managed.

Thespoofer · 07-05-2020 07:28AM

Just heard Dr. T. Holohan essentially say that there's no guarantees of allowing outdoor workers on May 18th.

If we're prevented again from going back to work I am going to snap.

There. I just had to get this off my chest.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-05-2020 07:57AM

Thespoofer wrote: »

Just heard Dr. T. Holohan essentially say that there's no guarantees of allowing outdoor workers on May 18th.

If we're prevented again from going back to work I am going to snap.

There. I just had to get this off my chest.

256 new cases yesterday. Way above where we need to be.

This is a direct result of fecklessness by some of the population.

Some see fit to have house parties, hang out in groups, go to parks and all the rest of it and this is the result of that. And the posters on this thread telling people to ignore guidelines, that it's not so bad, it's just the old (fcuk em) - you're a total disgrace and you should have a look at yourselves. Selfish and ignorant - not a good combination.

No point blaming Holohan if the measures need to remain as they are.

Pitch n Putt · 07-05-2020 07:59AM

So we’ve had the longest drawn out reopening plan delivered last Friday along with a two week extension to the current lockdown

We have over 1000 spare capacity available throughout our hospitals.The numbers in ICU are dropping daily and daily cases pretty stable.

The major Garda checkpoints from last week have disappeared again (probably being saved for June bank holiday weekend)

The question is where are we as a country going with this?

Taoiseach Tony back with the same story as last week setting us up for another extension with his “If restrictions were to be lifted today spiel the numbers aren’t low enough

Would someone please find out what the magic numbers this man is actually looking for?

“As low as possible bullsh*t is worn thin at this stage.

The numbers that he will get if this carries on is about 1.5 million people unemployed

There needs to be a very quick rethink because extension after extension after extension is not the answer.

There will never be the number 0 if that’s the plan. It ain’t possible.

It’s unbelievable really the way our whole country is shutdown because of the potential ineptitude of our health service being shown up.

Who or when is enough going to be called?

The approach is way too cautious with the opening up plan and it’s going to be a one step forward two back if left totally to Dr Holohan to oversee it.

How do we get out of this homegrown mess ? We inherited the virus but we’re also left with the possibility of having the longest lockdown and removal of restrictions for any country in the world.

pjohnson · 07-05-2020 08:00AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

256 new cases yesterday. Way above where we need to be.

This is a direct result of fecklessness by some of the population.

Some see fit to have house parties, hang out in groups, go to parks and all the rest of it and this is the result of that.

No point blaming Holohan if the measures need to remain as they are.

Its still amazing how the people whinging about extensions and deciding they know better and that they dont need to follow restrictions STILL dont realise their inability to follow instructions means things will need to be extended.

They are causing the very thing they love moaning about. Its naturally everyone elses fault of course.

Mervyn Skidmore · 07-05-2020 08:06AM

Won't be surprised if the restrictions are extended. 15-20 young men playing astro turf in Sligo yesterday evening. Had bibs and cones etc, so obviously pre arranged. Gardai need to start cracking down with prosecutions. At least just to get the word out there.

the kelt · 07-05-2020 08:11AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

256 new cases yesterday. Way above where we need to be.

This is a direct result of fecklessness by some of the population.

Some see fit to have house parties, hang out in groups, go to parks and all the rest of it and this is the result of that. And the posters on this thread telling people to ignore guidelines, that it's not so bad, it's just the old (fcuk em) - you're a total disgrace and you should have a look at yourselves. Selfish and ignorant - not a good combination.

No point blaming Holohan if the measures need to remain as they are.

Yeah I mean over half our cases are in nursing homes so them house parties are the reason alright along with the spike in direct provision centres. House parties and the rest Of it.

The fact that our testing capacity still isn’t up to where it was meant to be several weeks ago and it’s taking the bones of a week for turning around a result have nothing to do with it.

Of course it’s just easier to blame joe public for all the issues because there’s enough sheep around to accept it.

mandrake04 · 07-05-2020 08:12AM

Thespoofer wrote: »

Just heard Dr. T. Holohan essentially say that there's no guarantees of allowing outdoor workers on May 18th.

If we're prevented again from going back to work I am going to snap.

There. I just had to get this off my chest.

Yeah they have a habit of hinting and softening everyone up to their intentions.

Playing a blinder nearly catching spain for the cup

https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/

Kermit.de.frog · 07-05-2020 08:14AM

the kelt wrote: »

Of course it’s just easier to blame joe public for all the issues because there’s enough sheep around to accept it.

We have a live one here.

pjohnson · 07-05-2020 08:15AM

the kelt wrote: »

Yeah I mean over half our cases are in nursing homes so them house parties are the reason alright along with the spike in direct provision centres. House parties and the rest Of it.

The fact that our testing capacity still isn’t up to where it was meant to be several weeks ago and it’s taking the bones of a week for turning around a result have nothing to do with it.

Of course it’s just easier to blame joe public for all the issues because there’s enough sheep around to accept it.

And where do the rest come from?

the kelt · 07-05-2020 08:19AM

pjohnson wrote: »

And where do the rest come from?

Not from nursing homes would be a good guess. Did we get confirmation last night that all the new cases were not from care homes, community setting etc?

Genuine question as I don’t know?

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 08:20AM

Loozer wrote: »

Is there any fund announced.for.business to get them back up running?

Yep. Brand new one from last week.
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/fe8f00-government-outlines-further-measures-to-support-businesses-impacted-/

stephenjmcd · 07-05-2020 08:27AM

the kelt wrote: »

Not from nursing homes would be a good guess. Did we get confirmation last night that all the new cases were not from care homes, community setting etc?

Genuine question as I don’t know?

Yeah 196 increase on previous day from long term care settings

mandrake04 · 07-05-2020 08:28AM

pjohnson wrote: »

And where do the rest come from?

A third of people arriving in Ireland over the last six weeks refused to hand over details of where they were staying to allow authorities confirm they were self-isolating.

The Irish Independent has seen new figures which show hundreds of people who flew in to Dublin Airport during that time did not fill in forms detailing where they would be staying.

The forms requested information about the address where the individual would stay for the two weeks after they arrived here.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/passengers-refusing-to-give-details-of-plans-for-quarantine-39187275.html?fbclid=IwAR0XAAD18WtPUZhKczCh4-hZnNHsmdXPj6EwiQ5Yf44LoKgWSuJBcyqq-IQ

This is the problem, the sooner the government puts people in forced Isolation the better, maybe give them a bit of kicking to ensure they dont get itchy feet

stephenjmcd · 07-05-2020 08:31AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/passengers-refusing-to-give-details-of-plans-for-quarantine-39187275.html?fbclid=IwAR0XAAD18WtPUZhKczCh4-hZnNHsmdXPj6EwiQ5Yf44LoKgWSuJBcyqq-IQ

This is the problem, the sooner the government puts people in forced Isolation the better, maybe give them a bit of kicking to ensure they dont get itchy feet

Are we blaming joe public again ?
And this isn't part of the problem then no ?? I'm sure it wont be the only one.
If you going to blame one small part of society at least be balanced and show its also a problem in another.

The statement reads: “Due to delayed and in certain instances, non-action on the part of the HSE and management, I found myself compelled in good conscience to take action in order to protect patients and staff from what have become life-threatening conditions.

“I first raised concerns directly with management in mid-March. Worryingly, these concerns largely fell on deaf ears and notwithstanding similar concerns raised by fellow workers including staff who themselves subsequently tested positive and became seriously ill.”

The staff member, who is currently sick with Covid-19, claims there are “serious questions as to how the unit is being operated in the current crisis remain unanswered”.

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/whistleblower-claims-nursing-home-safety-warning-was-ignored-39187140.html

Seamai · 07-05-2020 08:37AM

Tony Holohan also mentioned yesterday that many of those new community cases are in the younger age group.

There is every chance that the date for the start of at least one of those relaxation steps will be missed due to conditions not being where they should be, so it's up to each one of us to do everything possible to insure this doesn't happen. Slacking at this stage will only prolong things.

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 08:39AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/passengers-refusing-to-give-details-of-plans-for-quarantine-39187275.html?fbclid=IwAR0XAAD18WtPUZhKczCh4-hZnNHsmdXPj6EwiQ5Yf44LoKgWSuJBcyqq-IQ

This is the problem, the sooner the government puts people in forced Isolation the better, maybe give them a bit of kicking to ensure they dont get itchy feet

What precise law can they use to do this?

easypazz · 07-05-2020 08:40AM

gozunda wrote: »

Jac

A couple of small points there

1. The elderly and those with LTI who live independently are being advised to cocoon. Most I know are observing this to be fair

2. Those residents in care homes (elderly and others) cannot effectively cocoon or fully socially isolate due to the nature of such settings Ie they are effectivrly living in large groups which are almost impossible to keep completely apart for operational reasons.

3. Such care homes are not isolated from the wider community because of staff etc who travel to and from such places and also necessary provisioning. It only takes one single asymptomatic or pre symptomatic person coming in to these settings to cause the infection to spread like wildfire.

4. Everyone can get the disease. Not just the elderly. A significant proportion of those hospitalised are under 65

5. The issue of care homes is prevalent in many countries worldwide - primarily I believe because of point 2 above

6. You don't like 'Tony' - grand. But no matter who it is telling us the numbers are not good enough - the CMO or whoever It remains - they're not. The UK has made the same statement regarding it's current situation.

7. There is no 'laughing stock' when the real risk is to our health services being potentially overwhelmed and to the numbers in the wider community continuing to increase.

8. No there is no current vaccine - however we continue to attempt to control the numbers infected both in the wider community and elsewhere .

9. The current restrictions are not soley about 'deaths' see no. 7.

10. We are not the only country with restrictions - however the direction here to 'stay at home was implemented approx 2 weeks after most other EU countries. Yes restrictions will be rolled back as elsewhere as things hopefully improve. That needs time. Impatience and panic will not help however

You forgot No. 11

11. There has been a sharp drop in cancer referrals since the onset of Covid-19 pandemic, this is one of many areas where regular medical intervention has been impacted. The government is concerned about secondary mortality as a result of restrictions.

easypazz · 07-05-2020 08:45AM

Seamai wrote: »

Tony Holohan also mentioned yesterday that many of those new community cases are in the younger age group.

There is every chance that the date for the start of at least one of those relaxation steps will be missed due to conditions not being where they should be, so it's up to each one of us to do everything possible to insure this doesn't happen. Slacking at this stage will only prolong things.

They can only prolong things as long as somebody is willing to keep giving us money.

is_that_so · 07-05-2020 08:47AM

Seamai wrote: »

Tony Holohan also mentioned yesterday that many of those new community cases are in the younger age group.

There is every chance that the date for the start of at least one of those relaxation steps will be missed due to conditions not being where they should be, so it's up to each one of us to do everything possible to insure this doesn't happen. Slacking at this stage will only prolong things.

Well they've returned to the original definition so you would imagine more would come out of that initially. The dilemma here is that compliance with further delays is going to wane and very quickly. The testing system doing its thing effectively is crucial in this. I really think they need to stick to May 18 but after that circumstances may require adjustments.

07-05-2020 08:48AM

Seamai wrote: »

Tony Holohan also mentioned yesterday that many of those new community cases are in the younger age group.

There is every chance that the date for the start of at least one of those relaxation steps will be missed due to conditions not being where they should be, so it's up to each one of us to do everything possible to insure this doesn't happen. Slacking at this stage will only prolong things.

Probably too late now to influence numbers pre the 18th - still believe they wont reverse course on the 18th unless things were to deteriorate rapidly as the plan would have been based on what we knew last week. I would imagine there is an in built two week lag in the 3 week cycle to detect any changes and allow time to react. Essentially what this gives us though is until the 25th to assess if Phase 2 can begin on the 8th of June as planned, or even if it can be expanded to include wider openings if trends are more positive.

07-05-2020 08:51AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Well they've returned to the original definition so you would imagine more would come out of that initially. The dilemma here is that compliance with further delays is going to wane and very quickly. The testing system doing its thing effectively is crucial in this. I really think they need to stick to May 18 but after that circumstances may require adjustments.

Did I see that the positive rate from those tested had dropped to close to 3%. Probably a much more useful indicator. We were at close 15% a couple of weeks ago I believe

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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