Relaxation of restrictions Part II

What Username Guidelines · 05-05-2020 04:48PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If we targeted a billion or a couple of billion euro at the high risk areas such as nursing and care homes, expand ICU capacity even further, use other methods that had success aside from ventilators and also newer drugs, there would be no need to lock down our economy. Some social distancing would have to continue.

There was walk of us having surge capacity of 800 ICU but I don't know if it ever materialised or if they're staffed or whats happening, as >100 people in ICU was seen as enough to push restrictions back 2 more weeks.

hmmm · 05-05-2020 04:50PM

boring accountant wrote: »

It is possible to prevent people from being pissed in pubs. They do it quite successfully in Canada and the US due to the legal liability issues with serving drunk customers. There’s no reason they cant cut someone off after 4 drinks. This idea that pubs reopening = an automatic return to piss yung wans vomiting in the streets is ludicrous.

Ludicrous? It's a perfectly valid question, and I don't remember seeing any proposals from the vitners as to how they were going to prevent this. If you have inside information please feel free to share.

lord quackinton · 05-05-2020 04:50PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Hows that? If they're correct that we have 10x more cases, so 200k cases, maybe more, doesnt that mean we'd have current deaths x~20, and that assumes we'd be able to treat all those that need treating.

The uk death numbers are 28734
Population of 66 million
Sweden 2854 10 million

Just get the average and round up
2500 max

cadaliac · 05-05-2020 04:50PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

Everytime there's economic trouble, people in the private sector come for teachers. Pick up a form and apply for a job in Education. Easy peasy trying to organise daily activities and education remotely for classes, while minding and teaching ones own children. I'm working in Education and I'm dying to get back to work. I think this lockdown is madness and I cannot stand the way children and young people have been treated in this whole situation. It's turning out they're not even the 'super-spreaders' they were made out to be, just picking up infections off parents.
I'm sick of the dis-respect from people towards teachers, I personally find parents who post such remarks rude and obnoxious, and whose children have zero respect or life skills themselves. It doesn't do you or your child any favours and gives them a bad name...

Quite happy you didn't teach me, to be perfectly honest.

stephenjmcd · 05-05-2020 04:51PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1257699161350311937?s=19

And some people here have suggested we keep borrowing long term, unsustainable in many ways, especially more so with this.

What Username Guidelines · 05-05-2020 04:51PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

The uk death numbers are 28734
Population of 66 million
Sweden 2854 10 million

Just get the average and round up
2500 max

Ah sorry by now, not total.. Gotcha.

bettyoleary · 05-05-2020 04:52PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think so. I actually think that German government are so confident this is not a deadly disease that they are allowing 22 guys get in close contact with each other for 90 minutes. On 1 corner you ll easily have 18 lads grappling with each other.

You are right, 10 players from 1734 tested did have covid19 and are now isolated. And its still going ahead. And thats wonderful. We need strong leaders like Germany have, who are not going to be flip flopping their strategy based on "models" or "estimates" or "dreaded 2nd wave might come, lets give it 3 more months stay at home to save lives and put people into poverty".

I think the Germans know very well the seriousness of this disease that is a silly and infantile statement to make. They are doing exactly the same as us just a bit ahead. They are very much basing their strategies on models. Merkel has a PHD in Chemistry. She know full well they are walking on thin ice and may need to reverse restrictions at any time.

As for footballers they are tested on a daily basis for Covid and they are healthy, fit young men. They are also privileged in that they get the best medical care should anything go wrong. They will be playing behind closed doors, earning millions of pounds. They are not the average bus driver on the 202 in Cork going back to work.

keane2097 · 05-05-2020 04:55PM

hmmm wrote: »

Ludicrous? It's a perfectly valid question, and I don't remember seeing any proposals from the vitners as to how they were going to prevent this. If you have inside information please feel free to share.

If you type 'vintners' into google there are articles on every news website about the fairly detailed proposals that have been made.

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 04:57PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

I think the Germans know very well the seriousness of this disease that is a silly and infantile statement to make. They are doing exactly the same as us just a bit ahead. They are very much basing their strategies on models. Merkel has a PHD in Chemistry. She know full well they are walking on thin ice and may need to reverse restrictions at any time.

As for footballers they are tested on a daily basis for Covid and they are healthy, fit young men. They are also privileged in that they get the best medical care should anything go wrong. They will be playing behind closed doors, earning millions of pounds. They are not the average bus driver on the 202 in Cork going back to work.

You are incredibly spot on. Germans do indeed know Covid much better than us.

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared

Quote:
a representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.

The headline result is that 15% of that population was infected, which implies an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.36%. This would put him somewhat in the middle of the previous experts we have spoken to. Professor Streeck was keen to point out, however, that he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more. He published the higher number to err on the side of caution: “it is more important to have the most conservative estimate and see the virus as more dangerous than it is,” he said.

tobefrank321 · 05-05-2020 05:03PM

The 1st wave explosion of numbers such as in Italy came against a background of people not really knowing the vulnerable categories. By the time the lockdown and social distance measures came into effect, it was too late to materially make a difference.

The hope is the 2nd wave won't be as bad because we will have far more measures in place such as cocooning of the elderly.

road_high · 05-05-2020 05:04PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1257699161350311937?s=19

And some people here have suggested we keep borrowing long term, unsustainable in many ways, especially more so with this.

The figures are sobering. The speed and suddenness of the shortfall is stark.

05-05-2020 05:07PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

You are incredibly spot on. Germans do indeed know Covid much better than us.

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared

Quote:
a representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.

The headline result is that 15% of that population was infected, which implies an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.36%. This would put him somewhat in the middle of the previous experts we have spoken to. Professor Streeck was keen to point out, however, that he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more. He published the higher number to err on the side of caution: “it is more important to have the most conservative estimate and see the virus as more dangerous than it is,” he said.

If we look back on this in a years time and it is clear that the death rate is down at that kind of level, there needs to be some serious questioning of the scientists leading this charge. There is an increasing amount of research showing similar outcomes to this, and yet it is not being taken into account at all in the strategies for coming months

CruelSummer · 05-05-2020 05:09PM

cadaliac wrote: »

Quite happy you didn't teach me, to be perfectly honest.

Sure, I forgot some people think teaching is a personality contest.

facehugger99 · 05-05-2020 05:09PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more.

It would really make your blood boil to see the economy destroyed and 10's of billions added to our debt for nothing.

All being driven by politicians desperate to cover their arses and mobs of hysteria-merchants on social media.

We have likely condemned thousands of healthy people to an early grave. Health budgets will be slashed for years to come. Screenings, operations, ability to purchase the latest drugs and treatments; all either lost or severely compromised.

As more evidence comes to light of the futility of lockdowns in stopping the rate of infections. As more evidence comes to light of the devastating impact of lockdowns on employment. As more evidence comes to light of the cost of lockdowns - we are still persisting with this utterly moronic nonsense.

Our politicians have made Trump look vaguely competent - and he suggested that people should inject disinfectant!

Shame on the Irish Government and shame on the electorate who vote these populist charlatans in.

hmmm · 05-05-2020 05:10PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

If we had not locked down we would have had 2500 deaths max

You've plucked that figure out of the air.

How many people long term unemployed would you consider unacceptable before removing restrictions
500k 750k 1million

I don't think customers will go back to pubs or shops if they think a dangerous virus is in circulation, I'm not sure why you think simply removing restrictions will cause everything to spring back to how it was. I also don't think employees should be expected to return to jobs where they are potentially going to be exposed to a disease with unknown risks to them and their families.

The economic impact doesn't go away until we have control of the virus. Simply ignoring it and rushing to reopen is more than likely going to extend the economic pain.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-05-2020 05:12PM

road_high wrote: »

The figures are sobering. The speed and suddenness of the shortfall is stark.

A necessary and inevitable side effect, lock down or no lock down.

We need to keep going and push down the rate of infection relentlessly. This will give us a stronger base for the next phase of the resurgence of the virus and we may be able to avoid the worst re-impositions on society.

uli84 · 05-05-2020 05:12PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

We have likely condemned thousands of healthy people to an early grave. Health budgets will be slashed for years to come. Screenings, operations, ability to purchase the latest drugs and treatments; all either lost or severely compromised.

That’s what worries me the most..

lord quackinton · 05-05-2020 05:12PM

road_high wrote: »

The figures are sobering. The speed and suddenness of the shortfall is stark.

As it’s the size and speed of the contraction which will hammer us this time and make 2008 and it’s aftermath look like a hiccup

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 05:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If we look back on this in a years time and it is clear that the death rate is down at that kind of level, there needs to be some serious questioning of the scientists leading this charge. There is an increasing amount of research showing similar outcomes to this, and yet it is not being taken into account at all in the strategies for coming months

Well reality is, UK government knew this is the real mortality. And were going to do herd immunity. But then Imperial college came out with a model that said 500,000 people will die if UK govt do nothing. Media put the pressure on and the rest is history.

Lets re wind 10 years ago, Imperial college comes out with a model and says 65,000 people in UK will die of Swine flu. 392 people died with Swine Flu.

We will see how UK get on, but so far 0.04% of their population has died due to covid. 5 months in. 0.04% vs 0.26% German virologist expects, you could say UK haven't done that bad, and its the numbers speaking, factual numbers.

ceadaoin. · 05-05-2020 05:14PM

Here is a link to the German study. Very interesting. Even the transmission rate within the same household is way lower than thought.

https://www.uni-bonn.de/neues/111-2020

Pdf of the study which is in English

https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD21D/vwLookupDownloads/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf/%24FILE/Streeck_et_al_Infection_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf

ixoy · 05-05-2020 05:16PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We need to keep going and push down the rate of infection relentlessly. This will give us a stronger base for the next phase of the resurgence of the virus and we may be able to avoid the worst re-impositions on society.

It certainly won't give us a stronger financial base if we don't do it right either. The same base that will ultimately finance all the lock-down payments, grants to bootstrap, etc and not to mention the day-to-day running that's required. You get that it has to be paid for right?

bettyoleary · 05-05-2020 05:16PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

A few things came to my attention yesterday that seem to be glossed over a little too quickly here..
1. A case has come to light in France dating all the way back to December 27th 2019..if this is the case - person in hospital wards, no PPE, isolation procedures, etc - it stands to reason it was all over France within weeks if it is as infectious as claimed...it also begs the question - how long has Covid 19 been around, and what is the true level of infection in populations and death rate? Was France's peak weeks ago?
France is an EU country, with many flights to Ireland...do the maths. All hospitals need to re-examine cases as far back as last October so we can all get a clear picture.
2. If Ireland's lockdown is so much more 'successful' than the U.K., why are they re-opening schools, etc. before us - on a phased basis. What exactly are NPHET playing at here, and who is their advice coming from? I think the New Zealand Prime Minister likes to praise herself a lot - but she makes a fair point re Ireland's lockdown being painfully slow to come out of.. Joe Duffy said earlier Spain are pushing FORWARD their re-opening as they've had no surge. Neither have Denmark...why is this data not being applied to Ireland?
3. The sooner we get a government the better - but if they don't act fast and start lifting this unnecessary lockdown, they'll have no money and no economy to manage. Paschal & co. better not start with the poor mouth worst recession, tax hikes, etc. talk - because I want to go back to work and earn a living and I am not willing to pay for this unnecessary catastrophe.
4. When did we as a population decide it is ok to treat children and young people the way we currently are. Children cannot leave a 2km zone for weeks, now a measly 5km. They cannot play and interact with friends - screen interactions are not a substitute for young children, teenagers and young people are being vilified for sitting in a park sunning themselves...while staying in groups 2 metres apart...has anyone thought of the consequences this lockdown is going to have on them long-term...nearly 6 months of formal education missed on top of it. Pensioners avoiding and acting strangely around children on walks, they will pick up on it and it's not right.
5. Over the course of history - where did any government implement a policy to save 80+ year olds, while putting the rest of their fit and healthy populations inside and out of work - destroying income, productivity, mental & physical well-being. Yes some people are at risk, they need to take pre-cautions. This is stating the obvious to me...
6. How can Ireland afford to donate millions to a Global Bill Gates Vaccine initiative - why were the public not consulted about this?

It has been very hard for children and young people. But, I have noticed they appear to have more sense and compassion than a lot of older people around this issue. They worry about older people and their grandparents and Id hazard a guess that they wouldn't be sitting on a crammed plane without any safety measures unlike the middle aged men on the Aer Lingus flight, ask them.

dashdoll · 05-05-2020 05:18PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

Everytime there's economic trouble, people in the private sector come for teachers. Pick up a form and apply for a job in Education. Easy peasy trying to organise daily activities and education remotely for classes, while minding and teaching ones own children. I'm working in Education and I'm dying to get back to work. I think this lockdown is madness and I cannot stand the way children and young people have been treated in this whole situation. It's turning out they're not even the 'super-spreaders' they were made out to be, just picking up infections off parents.
I'm sick of the dis-respect from people towards teachers, I personally find parents who post such remarks rude and obnoxious, and whose children have zero respect or life skills themselves. It doesn't do you or your child any favours and gives them a bad name...

I do think teachers grt a bad rap in general from the public and do great work. However, part of me also thinka teachers that are not working should be getting 350e covid payment until summer holidays (and then revert to full pay as they usually get) the same as everyone else who is out of work. I know its impossible to police this as some schools and teachers seem to be doing lots of eotk whereas I have a family member who is a primary teacher and she is doing no work at all with her pupils and hasnt since this started. I'm assuming this differs for each school but seems a bit unfair.

road_high · 05-05-2020 05:18PM

Economic conversations really stepped up today. Regina Doherty on the Covid payment -“this can only be a short term measure, not sustainable long term”.... I don’t think that could be any clearer?

ELM327 · 05-05-2020 05:19PM

road_high wrote: »

Economic conversations really stepped up today. Regina Doherty on the Covid payment -“this can only be a short term measure, not sustainable long term”.... I don’t think that could be any clearer?

I think everyone knows that.
12 weeks was the initial timeframe

Article
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-payments-unsustainable-warns-doherty-as-over-70s-advised-to-avoid-shops-1.4245289

hmmm · 05-05-2020 05:20PM

ixoy wrote: »

It certainly won't give us a stronger financial base if we don't do it right either. The same base that will ultimately finance all the lock-down payments, grants to bootstrap, etc and not to mention the day-to-day running that's required. You get that it has to be paid for right?

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

uli84 · 05-05-2020 05:22PM

Just received job posting to my mailbox, well, they’ll need a lot more of these

Rodin · 05-05-2020 05:23PM

easypazz wrote: »

We also share a land border with the country with the most deaths in Europe. 500000 of our citizens live in Northern Ireland.

Are there 1 million Irish passport holders in mainland UK (remember they all got them for Brexit)

Might we see an influx of Irish passport holders from the UK due to us having eased restrictions before them.

The land border is shared only with N.Ireland which has a lower death rate than the Republic.

The UK figures are skewed towards London just as Ireland's are skewed towards Dublin.

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 05:24PM

hmmm wrote: »

It depends on whether you are happy to accept the substantial risk that we will have to lockdown again within a few weeks by opening too fast, or whether you'd prefer us to be reasonably confident that things can go back to relative normality. Leaving aside the gambling with the health of people and hospital staff.

Well, average person will have a 99.64% chance to live according to official scientific studies conducted in a very credible country that is Germany. Is it a gamble worth taking?

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared

Quote:
a representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.

The headline result is that 15% of that population was infected, which implies an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.36%. This would put him somewhat in the middle of the previous experts we have spoken to. Professor Streeck was keen to point out, however, that he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more. He published the higher number to err on the side of caution: “it is more important to have the most conservative estimate and see the virus as more dangerous than it is,” he said.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-05-2020 05:24PM

ixoy wrote: »

It certainly won't give us a stronger financial base if we don't do it right either. The same base that will ultimately finance all the lock-down payments, grants to bootstrap, etc and not to mention the day-to-day running that's required. You get that it has to be paid for right?

The big problem for our finances is not the lock down, it is that key markets are closed to us.

I'm not concerned at all regarding the measures.

The most damaging thing for our economy is allowing the virus to run riot.

This will only lead to another lock down and far greater damage reputationally.

It's better to lance the boil now and keep the foot down.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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