Relaxation of restrictions Part II

stephenjmcd · 05-05-2020 01:01PM

Cyrus wrote: »

pretty simple thing to implement though? they can literally decree that you have to wear a mask or get fined, suddenly everyone will wear them.

should be mandatory in supermarkets / hardware stores imo, not in the open.

Not when you dont have a government to pass any laws

Cork Boy 53 · 05-05-2020 01:01PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The wearing of masks here will have guidelines issued within 2 weeks we were told on Friday however it wont be mandatory nor enforceable, that's what Leo said anyway

Which it is in Austria so not comparable to the situation here unless there is a change in government policy within the next 2 weeks which may well happen.

Asal beag dubh · 05-05-2020 01:01PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Its tragic dont get me wrong. Its tragic that Ireland has had 65 times more deaths than New Zealand given identical population size. Am I angry? yes. Do i think government have failed us? yes. Do i think that we should continue making mistakes of sitting at home and wait for a virus to go away? no.

Every country's situation is different ... I could quote other countries' figures to counteract your argument ... but the figures aren't easily comparable as testing regimes are different, how deaths are counted are done using different metrics. Unfortunately we are sharing an island with a state which has handled it worse than most.
The most important figures I believe are hospital admissions v. capacity. We have managed that quite well I believe. We came close to capacity but that capacity will soon be reduced as we can't continue to pay massive money to private healthcare for extra beds.

A strong grip on statistics - primarily the number of infections as related to hospital capacity should dictate how we re-open the economy. Other countries have a much greater healthcare capacity than ourselves and that may be what is allowing them to re-open sooner ... Germany springs to mind. I don't think any of these other countries are considering a justifiable cull of older people.

stephenjmcd · 05-05-2020 01:04PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Which it is in Austria so not comparable to the situation here unless there is a change in government policy within the next 2 weeks which may well happen.

The current government can't pass any more laws. Need a fully functioning Dail and Seanad which requires a new taoiseach to appoint 11 individuals to the Seanad.

They can't even get the business supports announced during the weekend through without a new government.

uli84 · 05-05-2020 01:05PM

Anybody has got the list of countries where schools will be closed until September?

phormium · 05-05-2020 01:05PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I would protect the at risk group. I would literally impose lockdowns on people with asthma and over 60 year olds. I would strongly suggest that there is no interaction between elderly and the young until a vaccine or a treatment drug is developed. These arent nice measures but have to be done. .

You forgot the overweight and obese, they are turning out to be a very at risk group once they get it, 73% according to UK tv this morning of all people in critical condition fit into that category and not confined to any age group as such.

na1 · 05-05-2020 01:06PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The wearing of masks here will have guidelines issued within 2 weeks we were told on Friday however it wont be mandatory nor enforceable, that's what Leo said anyway

I won't be wearing mask unless I've been given one.
buying a mask for 10 euro which normally cost 1 euro - no, thanks.

Naos · 05-05-2020 01:11PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

That's incorrect. If Sweden's deaths per 1m is 279, and Ireland's is 261, it seems to suggest lockdown is borderline useless. Wash your hands and try to stay 2 meters away from strangers and no public gatherings of more than 50 people has done the job for Sweden and did not create 22% unemployment/ 14% long term unemployment.

But then you have people coming and starting to give you demographics of Sweden, how their people are superior and smarter than Irish people and can follow directions etc. How Irish people are drunks and would break social distancing in pubs within 10 mins of entering etc etc. Nonsense.

How exactly is what I have said incorrect? Why don't you point to a country that didn't implement a lockdown, for example the US and look at their infection and death rates?

And yes, rightly so people will come on board and state demographics or culture, examples such Sweden's population density of 25 per km2 vs Ireland's 70 per km2, more than 50% of Swedish households are single-person vs 23% of Irelands, they have more people working from home than anywhere else in Europe etc.

But hey, let's ignore the details that paint the full picture.

SSr0 · 05-05-2020 01:14PM

Naos wrote: »

How exactly is what I have said incorrect? Why don't you point to a country that didn't implement a lockdown, for example the US and look at their infection and death rates?

And yes, rightly so people will come on board and state demographics or culture, examples such Sweden's population density of 25 per km2 vs Ireland's 70 per km2, more than 50% of Swedish households are single-person vs 23% of Irelands, they have more people working from home than anywhere else in Europe etc.

But hey, let's ignore the details that paint the full picture.

...

Penfailed · 05-05-2020 01:15PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

We can look at the UK which is our closest comparator which acted a bit more slowly than us, and does seem to have been hit somewhat harder.

Somewhat. 29,000 deaths there. 1,300 here.

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 01:17PM

Naos wrote: »

How exactly is what I have said incorrect? Why don't you point to a country that didn't implement a lockdown, for example the US and look at their infection and death rates?

And yes, rightly so people will come on board and state demographics or culture, examples such Sweden's population density of 25 per km2 vs Ireland's 70 per km2, more than 50% of Swedish households are single-person vs 23% of Irelands, they have more people working from home than anywhere else in Europe etc.

But hey, let's ignore the details that paint the full picture.

Youve pointed out that the deaths in this country are low because of lockdown restrictions. I am unsure of this, because there is a country out there with nearly identical death rate but with no lockdown restrictions. Thats the "incorrect part". There is another country out there too, Belarus, no lockdown, less than 200 deaths, population 9.5m. its an unpopular country I admit, but it exists, and videos of 1000 + body bags on the streets in Belarus are not exactly circulating are they...

There is only 1 detail that paints the full picture and thats the fact that this disease has 0.65% mortality rate. Flu has 0.1% mortality and in severe seasons it goes up to 0.4% mortality.

I dont know if you are numbers person, but do you think that 22% unemployment in 1 scenario vs 4% unemployment in flu scenario is an "adequate" response? Increase in poverty, suicides, drug addictions... ?

na1 · 05-05-2020 01:23PM

robbiezero wrote: »

Friend of mine going to take her 7 week old first born to see Granny for the first time today outside the 20KM zone (with distancing, masks etc).
she would normally be very non-rebellious and follow all the rules, was initially hoping for May 5th to be allowed do this, but wuth the news and figures in the week leading up to it, she was prepared for that to be delayed by a few weeks even to end of the month, but the July 20th nonsense made up her mind for her very quickly.

just keep in mind that in case of an accident the insurance companies could probably reject the claim. I don't have any proof, but I'd imagine they will...

Cork Boy 53 · 05-05-2020 01:24PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The current government can't pass any more laws. Need a fully functioning Dail and Seanad which requires a new taoiseach to appoint 11 individuals to the Seanad.

They can't even get the business supports announced during the weekend through without a new government.

How do you know there won`t be a new government in place in 2 weeks time?
Even in political circles things can happen quickly enough when the pressure is on.

seamus · 05-05-2020 01:27PM

na1 wrote: »

I won't be wearing mask unless I've been given one.
buying a mask for 10 euro which normally cost 1 euro - no, thanks.

I won't be wearing a mask unless there's proper guidance on the type of mask that works, and evidence that it works.

I'm not going to wear some crappy mask that's 1% effective so that some combeen can come up and cough in my face. I'll stand 2m away without a mask, thanks.

easypazz · 05-05-2020 01:27PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

How do you know there won`t be a new government in place in 2 weeks time?
Even in political circles things can happen quickly enough when the pressure is on.

Worst case scenario an extendable X month government put in place to deal only with the COVID crisis then GE afterwards.

Only problem with that is we could lose Shane Ross in 2 weeks which would be a disaster.

road_high · 05-05-2020 01:27PM

Penfailed wrote: »

Did anyone realistically think that it was going to be never ending?

Yes, I believe many do. The government hasn’t been wholly honest with them.
It’ll be a bitter pill for many in well paid jobs down to €200 per week and letters from their banks.

stephenjmcd · 05-05-2020 01:30PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

How do you know there won`t be a new government in place in 2 weeks time?
Even in political circles things can happen quickly enough when the pressure is on.

Because there wont be. All parties invovled would have to sit down for talks which is due to happen soon, based on those talks they can then create a programme for government its just been announced negotiations are starting Thursday, how long they go on for who knows, after that then circulate to all party members which then have to have time to read it before each party convenes its membership to vote on said document. After that the nominations for Taoiseach have to be submitted and the Dail will be convened in the convention centre so that a full sitting can take place with social distancing.

2 weeks won't be possible. Even the most optimistic of politicians and political commentators says early June at the very earliest. More than likely mid June.
All well and good saying things move quick when pressure is on but all of that is procedure so can't exactly be moved along any quicker than it would normally take place.

easypazz · 05-05-2020 01:33PM

road_high wrote: »

Yes, I believe many do. The government hasn’t been wholly honest with them.
It’ll be a bitter pill for many in well paid jobs down to €200 per week and letters from their banks.

Indeed, like a pilot probably earning €80-€100K and very unqualified for a job anywhere else and no prospects in his own field.

But as long as an 82 year old gets to be wheeled out of the hospital to a guard of honour after beating covid-19 then all these sacrifices will be worth it.

road_high · 05-05-2020 01:33PM

uli84 wrote: »

Anybody has got the list of countries where schools will be closed until September?

Ireland

Irish Aris · 05-05-2020 01:33PM

seamus wrote: »

I won't be wearing a mask unless there's proper guidance on the type of mask that works, and evidence that it works.

I'm not going to wear some crappy mask that's 1% effective so that some combeen can come up and cough in my face. I'll stand 2m away without a mask, thanks.

Shouldn't we do both though? keep the distance and wear a mask? I, at least, plan to do so.
These things shouldn't be mutually exclusive.

easypazz · 05-05-2020 01:34PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Because there wont be. All parties invovled would have to sit down for talks which is due to happen soon, based on those talks they can then create a programme for government and then circulate to all party members which then have to have time to read it before each party convenes its membership to vote on said document. After that the nominations for Taoiseach have to be submitted and the Dail will be convened in the convention centre so that a full sitting can take place with social distancing.

2 weeks won't be possible. Even the most optimistic of politicians and political commentators says early June at the very earliest. More than likely mid June.

If it has to happen in 2 weeks though it can be made happen. Even if its only a short term arrangement to pass covid laws.

road_high · 05-05-2020 01:35PM

easypazz wrote: »

Indeed, like a pilot probably earning €80-€100K and very unqualified for a job anywhere else and no prospects in his own field.

But as long as an 82 year old gets to be wheeled out of the hospital to a guard of honour after beating covid-19 then all these sacrifices will be worth it.

Pilots yes, very well paid and great career if it’s for you.
Accustomed to a high standard of living generally. Must awful shock for them

hmmm · 05-05-2020 01:36PM

Naos wrote: »

How exactly is what I have said incorrect? Why don't you point to a country that didn't implement a lockdown, for example the US and look at their infection and death rates?

And yes, rightly so people will come on board and state demographics or culture, examples such Sweden's population density of 25 per km2 vs Ireland's 70 per km2, more than 50% of Swedish households are single-person vs 23% of Irelands, they have more people working from home than anywhere else in Europe etc.

But hey, let's ignore the details that paint the full picture.

There's this simplistic idea from some on the thread that Sweden implemented no measures at all, therefore everything else can be measured against them.

stephenjmcd · 05-05-2020 01:38PM

easypazz wrote: »

If it has to happen in 2 weeks though it can be made happen. Even if its only a short term arrangement to pass covid laws.

Not really, Greens need 2/3 majority to pass any programme for government through the party membership and they've quite clearly got their own demands to be invovled in any government. So procedure still needs to be followed regardless.

Issue is with the Seanad, you need 11 taoiseach nominees to it in order for any government to pass laws now. Introducing any laws without it is completely unconstitutional based of Attorney general advice.

2 weeks is wishful thinking. Early June at best.

Ginger n Lemon · 05-05-2020 01:42PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's this simplistic idea from some on the thread that Sweden implemented no measures at all, therefore everything else can be measured against them.

There is Belarus too. Czech republic lockdown was barely 2 months and they share borders with 6 countries. Czech republic has opened its borders actually, can you believe it? Maniacs. They must hate their elderly.

seamus · 05-05-2020 01:43PM

Irish Aris wrote: »

Shouldn't we do both though? keep the distance and wear a mask? I, at least, plan to do so.
These things shouldn't be mutually exclusive.

Should we?

What is the effectiveness of mask + distancing? Is it statistically a step up from distancing alone?

What kind of mask is required?

Do these statistics hold up in the real world?

In the same way that condoms are 98% effective in the lab, and 82% effective in the real world, what is the actual effectiveness of mask-wearing?

I'm not asking you these questions, btw. I'm illustrating that the question of using masks is not that simple when you expand it beyond teh use of medical-grade PPE in healthcare settings.

Loozer · 05-05-2020 01:44PM

Some change in the level of activity today

Cars and people everywhere

fly_agaric · 05-05-2020 01:45PM

Penfailed wrote: »

Somewhat. 29,000 deaths there. 1,300 here.

Christ - I hadn't been keeping track lately & didn't realise it was quite that bad! :eek: Yes - I take back the "somewhat". There are of course other factors that might explain some of the difference (they have more cities, denser population in England generally) etc. but the different approach taken at the start must have a lot to do with it.

facehugger99 · 05-05-2020 01:45PM

I would love to know what is going to be different from the situation we have now on the 18th of May or the 08th June of the 29th of June.

It's absolutely criminal that we still have these lockdown measures in place.

We have crippled the economy and added 10's of billions to our national debt for fcuk all benefits.

ddarcy · 05-05-2020 01:45PM

uli84 wrote: »

Anybody has got the list of countries where schools will be closed until September?

Not a country per se, but a number of states in NB the US are doing this like California, Maryland, New York. If expect all to follow though as the school year typically ends in May and opens in August.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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