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Fianna Fail on 14%

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24567…23

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    #32
    whippet
    Registered Users Posts: 7,673 ✭✭✭whippet


    I’m tired of listening to people manning about how the people voted for change ... they voted for individuals and parties and the make up of the Dail is a reflection of this.

    The dail elects the government and at the moment the votes of the people seems to have pointed towards a government consisting of FF and FG with others. That is a fact.

    SF can’t use the line about being excluded from discussions when Mary announced during her ‘winning / losing’ speech that she wanted to form a government that excluded both FG and FF. now that the reality is that SF can’t get near enough support to form a government she plays the victim.


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    #33
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    there wont be an election called, ffg will just plough on as usual, preventing any alternative government from being formed

    Please explain?

    Or is that just a soundbite? Nothing stopping an alternative government being formed apart from the public seemingly not giving them enough votes


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    #34
    TheValeyard
    Registered Users Posts: 12,258 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    They are about to merge.Just waiting for Eamonn Ryan to solemnise the marriage.


    Had to read that again, thought you said sodomize :pac:

    Fcuk Putin. Glory to Ukraine!



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    #35
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    mehico wrote: »
    That's a bit like saying FF are still toxic to 86% of people based on this poll sample and very few people now want this party in government.

    While the poll is probably meaningless in terms of elections if the trend continues could it give FG leverage over FF in terms of prioritising potential policy objectives and appointment of ministers to specific departments for example?

    Not really. If FF pulled up their socks and got a new plan they would still have a chance. It is all about perception. They don't polarise opinion as much as Sinn Féin do. As a voter you are either voting Sinn Féin or you aren't.

    Also a poll of a thousand people does not a national consensus make. More so now than ever before. The reality is that FF have about 24 % support. They also enjoy the luxury of being amicable with the other 76 %. Sinn Fein don't. Unless Sinn Féin can get another 26% of the country to turn communist they will also need to revisit their strategy, all things considered that looks like a bigger mountain to climb. It will only get steeper the longer they can't get into power, which they probably can't, all things considered.


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    #36
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    Maybe in another generation. But it would overly polarise a lot of the FG heartland, more so than sleeping with FF.

    Sinn Féin are still toxic to 74 % of the republic no matter how well they feel they are doing.

    That's a really crazy way of looking at it. Sinn Fein are not my first choice of representative, so I haven't given a first preference to them, and would not say they are my preference in a poll like this, and I suppose I number among the 74% in your interpretation. But I do not see SF as toxic, I am not opposed to them being in government, and I do not rule out ever voting for them in the future. I would say there are many who feel like me, particularly the many people who are not life long supporters any other party. I think things are far more grey and less black and white regarding SF support than you imagine.


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    #37
    PyreOfHellfire
    Closed Accounts Posts: 146 ✭✭PyreOfHellfire


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The Irish way ,keep going back to the electorate until you get the answer you want.

    What are you sh*tting on about now? :rolleyes:
    Arlessienne wrote: »
    That's a really crazy way of looking at it. Sinn Fein are not my first choice of representative, so I haven't given a first preference to them, and would not say they are my preference in a poll like this, and I suppose I number among the 76% in your interpretation. But I do not see SF as toxic, I am not opposed to them being in government, and I do not rule out ever voting for them in the future. I would say there are many who feel like me, particularly the many people who are not life long supporters any other party. I think things are far more grey and less black and white regarding SF support than you imagine.

    Spot on. There's only so many times the merry go round can keep spinning before people get sick of the result. SF for all their past indiscretions have not been in government and eventually people will give them a first preference just for the sake of something new. I did so in the last election for the first time in my voting life. Also the first time I didn't give FF or FG a second preference, decided to just leave it blank.


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    #38
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users Posts: 13,927 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    I can't stand MM. I think I'll have to avoid all Irish media if he becomes Taoiseach.


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    #39
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    TheValeyard wrote: »
    Had to read that again, thought you said sodomize :pac:

    Well the greens tax demands will be quite similar to that.


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    #40
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Jensen Sweet Prodigy wrote: »
    That's a really crazy way of looking at it. Sinn Fein are not my first choice of representative, so I haven't given a first preference to them, and would not say they are my preference in a poll like this, and I suppose I number among the 74% in your interpretation. But I do not see SF as toxic, I am not opposed to them being in government, and I do not rule out ever voting for them in the future. I would say there are many who feel like me, particularly the many people who are not life long supporters any other party. I think things are far more grey and less black and white regarding SF support than you imagine.

    That is fine, thanks for sharing . About 26% of the country actually share your sentiment.

    But the other 74 % don't. It is a polarised electorate.

    I am not imaging things, if you read my post what I am saying is that Sinn Féin are suffering from some post election smugness, they did fantastic. But they need to convince the rest of the country now and I don't see it happening. Even yesterdays' poll indicates this.


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    #41
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    I will vote Sinn Féin if and when their economic policies mirror my own
    Currently closest to my frame of mind are Fine Gael
    Plus I think Leo is a good image for our country when out on the world stage versus the other party leaders
    Very Trudeau like or Ardern
    Always wanting to be on top of the facts etc


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    #42
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    That is fine, thanks for sharing . About 26% of the country actually share your sentiment.

    But the other 74 % don't. It is a polarised electorate.

    I am not imaging things, if you read my post what I am saying is that Sinn Féin are suffering from some post election smugness, they did fantastic. But they need to convince the rest of the country now and I don't see it happening. Even yesterdays' poll indicates this.

    Where are you getting that 74% see SF as toxic?

    I don't see how you would count me in the 26% - I haven't voted for SF and would not be counted among their supporters in a poll like this one. But neither do I see them as toxic.


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    #43
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Jensen Sweet Prodigy wrote: »
    Where are you getting that 74% see SF as toxic?

    I think you need to appreciate that I am generalising. But in the case that you don't, you have to acknowledge that no other parties were willing to enter coalition with Sin Féin, certainly not enough to entertain a majority government.
    Jensen Sweet Prodigy wrote: »
    I don't see how you would count me in the 26% - I haven't voted for SF and would not be counted among their supporters in a poll like this one. But neither do I see them as toxic.

    Ok, sorry if I misinterpreted your post. But I do think that voters are either pro Sinn Féin or they aren't. If you examine the transfer voting from this years election you see that. Left wing parties did benefit from Sinn Féin transfers, but not enough for a majority. But a tiny percentage of FG and FF transfers went to Sinn Féin or other left wing groups. That is my point.

    I also think that the left wing momentum has reached saturation, I don't see it growing any further.


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    #44
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,949 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »
    Please explain?

    Or is that just a soundbite? Nothing stopping an alternative government being formed apart from the public seemingly not giving them enough votes

    its clearly obvious that both ffg plan to block any alternative governments from being formed going forward, expect both parties to behave as such for as long as possible, possibly indefinitely. electorate voting choices only play a part in government formations, after voting takes place, party politics plays a more critical role in formation.


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    #45
    This is it
    Registered Users Posts: 5,266 ✭✭✭This is it


    I've no idea where you're getting "74% think they're toxic" sure that means all that didn't vote FG think theyre toxic, and all that didn't vote FF think they're toxic, which clearly isn't the case.

    I've no idea what point you're trying to make, whatever it is you're doing a horrendous job of getting it across.


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    #46
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    its clearly obvious that both ffg plan to block any alternative governments from being formed going forward, expect both parties to behave as such for as long as possible, possibly indefinitely. electorate voting choices only play a part in government formations, after voting takes place, party politics plays a more critical role in formation.

    I think if FF & FG take the poison pill of the greens it will almost certainly see one of them almost obliterated in the next election. One tax increase with MM at the helm and thats FF back to 2011 levels next time. Leaving a huge gap in the market that SF are too toxic to fill. It could be labours saviour.

    Luckily it will wipe out the greens too.


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    #47
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    TheValeyard wrote: »
    Had to read that again, thought you said sodomize :pac:

    That could happen too


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    #48
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    To even watch the party leaders , Leo and Mary Lou at least can have a bit of banter with each other...Michael Martin would turn milk sour the face on him


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    #49
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    I will vote Sinn Féin if and when their economic policies mirror my own
    Currently closest to my frame of mind are Fine Gael
    Plus I think Leo is a good image for our country when out on the world stage versus the other party leaders
    Very Trudeau like or Ardern
    Always wanting to be on top of the facts etc

    Yes. He has a great taste in socks.


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    #50
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    To even watch the party leaders , Leo and Mary Lou at least can have a bit of banter with each other...Michael Martin would turn milk sour the face on him
    That's what we really need. More banter between the fish wife and the socks salesman


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    #51
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    Michaél Martin selling his Country for 13 pieces of Silver.

    Cheap but a sell out is a sell out to Ffg.

    From 1 minute 5 Seconds. For this scum Thomas Clarke and James Connolly Died ! ! !

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akkPu-FJyiA&frags=pl%2Cwn


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    #52
    ThunbergsAreGo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭ThunbergsAreGo


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    its clearly obvious that both ffg plan to block any alternative governments from being formed going forward, expect both parties to behave as such for as long as possible, possibly indefinitely. electorate voting choices only play a part in government formations, after voting takes place, party politics plays a more critical role in formation.

    No they play the most important part. If a particular combination of parties has enough votes/seats they can form a government.


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    #53
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    This is it wrote: »
    I've no idea where you're getting "74% think they're toxic" sure that means all that didn't vote FG think theyre toxic, and all that didn't vote FF think they're toxic, which clearly isn't the case.

    I've no idea what point you're trying to make, whatever it is you're doing a horrendous job of getting it across.

    I appreciate you are one of the 26% of the vote that don't think they are toxic.

    The point I am trying to make is that Sinn Féin support does not transfer nationally. You either like Sinn Fein or you don't. They will transfer well between other left wing groups but they won't with other more liberal ideologies.

    For example Green Party, Labour , Many independents, Fianna Fáil and definitely FG voters will not tend to transfer 2nd or 3rd prefs to Sinn Féin ( and Vice Versa ). Such party support is not satisfied with the Sinn Féin ideology. That equates to about 74% of the electorate. The FF/SF swing works differently, it depends on what type of nationalist republic you are looking for. I doubt many SF or FF votes transfer well between party's, I think you are voting for either or.

    As a final note, just in case I am not making my point clearly enough, it needs to be recognised that all of these party's recognise this level or lack of support for Sinn Féin. That is why they said both before and after the election that they are not prepared to enter coalition with them. I don't think I can make my point any clearer than that?


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    #54
    blindside88
    Registered Users Posts: 1,968 ✭✭✭blindside88


    As a FF member I can see Mr Martin being ousted as leader. I believe if a coalition proposal with FG goes to the grassroots for a vote it will not pass. I have made it clear to my local representatives that if the grass roots are not given a vote on this coalition that I will leave the party. I would imagine I wouldn’t be alone in that decision. FF can bounce back under fresh leadership.


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    #55
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    blindside88 wrote: »
    As a FF member I can see Mr Martin being ousted as leader. I believe if a coalition proposal with FG goes to the grassroots for a vote it will not pass. I have made it clear to my local representatives that if the grass roots are not given a vote on this coalition that I will leave the party. I would imagine I wouldn’t be alone in that decision. FF can bounce back under fresh leadership.
    Going in to coalition with the celebrators of the Black and Tans / RIC / Dublin Metropolitan Police is hardly a Patriotic thing to do ! ! !


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    #56
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    I think you need to appreciate that I am generalising. But in the case that you don't, you have to acknowledge that no other parties were willing to enter coalition with Sin Féin, certainly not enough to entertain a majority government.



    Ok, sorry if I misinterpreted your post. But I do think that voters are either pro Sinn Féin or they aren't. If you examine the transfer voting from this years election you see that. Left wing parties did benefit from Sinn Féin transfers, but not enough for a majority. But a tiny percentage of FG and FF transfers went to Sinn Féin or other left wing groups. That is my point.

    I also think that the left wing momentum has reached saturation, I don't see it growing any further.

    I both like and dislike SF. I don't think I'm that unusual. I just don't see that polarisation in the people around me, apart from a very vocal minority of ardent FG supporters. I saw it in the past, but not any more. The people vocally opposed to the notion of SF stand out as exceptional now I think. Certainly, I do not see any evidence of it among traditional FF voters. And I know someone who canvassed for FG the last two elections, but voted SF this time.

    Is there a good summary of transfer patterns anywhere? I can only find articles referencing SF surplus transfers. I would be interested in seeing an analysis of where FF and FG transfers went.


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    #57
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    blindside88 wrote: »
    As a FF member I can see Mr Martin being ousted as leader. I believe if a coalition proposal with FG goes to the grassroots for a vote it will not pass. I have made it clear to my local representatives that if the grass roots are not given a vote on this coalition that I will leave the party. I would imagine I wouldn’t be alone in that decision. FF can bounce back under fresh leadership.

    I think this is the very thing that the majority of FF TD's are trying to avoid. The last thing they need now is hardline republicans getting their tails up. I think they widely recognise that a half loaf is better than no bread and they are going to fight from on top of the hill. If they went back to members now it could go pear shaped altogether. An insurrection from within would not do them any favours.

    The biggest issue FF have is too many old fart businessmen with deep mattresses and not enough female members. That more than anything is Micheál's fault. Bad planning, either that or they have lost the support of the modern Irish woman?


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    #58
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,134 ✭✭✭screamer


    Unfortunately the time for MM to leave is long past. He is hell bent on not being the only FF leader to not make Taoiseach. He will be remembered as the FF leader that led the last FF party, as I don’t see FF surviving after this merger with FG.
    He has not rejuvenated FF, there are no strong leaders in there, not even himself, and for the life of me I cannot understand why there has been no challenge for the leadership. I guess no one wants to captain the titanic. I still cannot look at him without being reminded of the last bust, I guess he should have left then and let a new generation try to reinvent the party. Anyways, FF will fall by the wayside soon enough, and MM will make history but I don’t think he’ll like the legacy he’ll be remembered for.


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    #59
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    there wont be an election called, ffg will just plough on as usual, preventing any alternative government from being formed
    They are not stopping anyone else trying to form an alternative. The numbers are not there for a coherent alternative. That would require all the Independents to every hue to back Mary Lou. It's all well and good to demand it but you need to be mindful of how quickly such a setup would exhaust a seriously limited talent pool. For where we are at stability is fundamental, preferable with people in-situ who have actual government experience.


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    #60
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Jensen Sweet Prodigy wrote: »
    I both like and dislike SF. I don't think I'm that unusual. I just don't see that polarisation in the people around me, apart from a very vocal minority of ardent FG supporters. I saw it in the past, but not any more. The people vocally opposed to the notion of SF stand out as exceptional now I think. Certainly, I do not see any evidence of it among traditional FF voters. And I know someone who canvassed for FG the last two elections, but voted SF this time.

    Is there a good summary of transfer patterns anywhere? I can only find articles referencing SF surplus transfers. I would be interested in seeing an analysis of where FF and FG transfers went.

    You will need to go through it constituency by constituency, but you will see definite patterns emerging, The most obvious one is Sinn Féin transfers going to other left wing groups or independents. You will also notice how FG or FF do not transfer well together, the same applies to FF and SF. There will be exceptions but as a rule they don't. FF voters tended to either vote FF or switch to SF. What was particularly evident is the lack of attraction between SF voters and FF. Very few SF votes transferred to FF, hence the swing within the nationalist republican vote.

    Left wing groups in contrast do not necessarily transfer as well as you would imagine. A lot of left wing groups do not support the nationalistic ideology of Sinn Féin. This can be represented in votes. However such mindsets won't vote FG or FF either, they will tend to transfer to other random independents.

    Transfer voting and the mechanics of it have and will become very important in Irish politics as it is diversifying going forward.

    There is no official publishing of complete results from the State as yet, there will be. I found this on line and you can check summaries with any of the national papers. But if you want to examine national transfers you will need to either wait for a full publication or contact each constituency.

    This analysis is of pre election party candidates ( no results )

    https://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/people/michael_gallagher/Election2020.php

    Results summary ( no transfer voting analysis)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election

    Irish Times Analysis ( comprehensive but still lacks a proper analysis of transfers)

    https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/results-hub


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    #61
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,778 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    I think it's great.


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