Relaxation of restrictions Part II

hmmm · 01-05-2020 12:35PM

the kelt wrote: »

Only time will tell, if we have done such a great job with testing, tracing etc how come it looks like we will be the last country in europe to begin easing restrictions substantially?

We did not have to endure as strict a lockdown as other countries.

Maybe in hindsight it would have been easier for the government if they had locked everyone inside their houses, and the police had enforced a 2k limit for everyone, no retail at all other than grocery. I'm glad they didn't but there you go.

A lot of countries are only getting back to where we are now. Most of the rest are talking about partially relaxing restrictions in the future, and being very careful about doing it - I expect we will hear a similar plan this week.

yosemitesam1 · 01-05-2020 12:36PM

gozunda wrote: »

Bolloxs. The disease can affect any age any group. The young, the middle aged and the elderly. Medical research indicates that over 60% of the worlds population will become infected at some point.

Why the need for restrictions? Exactly because just about anyone can get it and all those can spread it. Hence the restictions to control the spread of the disease and to stop heslth services being overwhelmed - like Italy.

Nursing homes across the world are unfortunately being badly affected - not just Ireland. The reasons for this is because the people living there cannot socially isolate and have vulnerable people who live alongside the healthy. But more importantly nursing homes cannot be completely isolated from the wider community. Nurses, staff, catering is all required to keep these homes happens. The staff and other personal live in the wider community. Get rid of those restrictions and the infection rate will climb and more people in the community will increasingly bring the disease to those in such settings .

Restrictions are there for these exact and very good reasons. That some refuse to acknowledge that is neither here nor there.

It's pure guesswork and nothing else when "estimating" how much of the population will potentially get infected.
There's no evidence to back any of it up.
For all we actually know, infections might have fallen anyway without intervention. Other endemic coronavirus strains increase in late winter/early spring then fall naturally. We have no data to prove this strain is any different.

showpony1 · 01-05-2020 12:36PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They expect people to be able to host gatherings at home on May 18th

People that don't live at home with family will then be exposed to everyone they live with's gatherings?

iancairns · 01-05-2020 12:40PM

We go live to Government offices

2asdZR1

Naos · 01-05-2020 12:41PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The key to the roadmap will be what is in each phase

It can't be too stung out and too unambitious or long

Take Belgium for example

They expect people to be able to host gatherings at home on May 18th

As an from Monday you can meet up with 2 people who dont live with them

All shops to reopen May 11th with social distancing

Their plan has specific dates in mind

Will be interesting to see if Leo's does later

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That's the thing from the leaks in the last week it seems as if this will be dragged out while countires who've been in much worse positions than us will be essentially back up and running. A plan without a timeline will be basically no good as it doesn't give anyone anything to actually aim towards. Find it mind boggling how every other country can manage to give a decent laid out plan but not here.

I hope I'm wrong and this evening we'll see I just get the feelings it's going to be more of these are the phases but we'll get the "when the time is right" talk

They may be in a worse position than us in terms of cases/deaths, but look at the total number of ICU beds per 100k if things start going south:

Belgium as you've quoted have almost 2.5x the ICU beds we have.

I'm aware we have increased capacity recently with the Private hospital takeover, not sure if other countries have done similar, a quick google says they have so using the above to keep it like for like.

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 12:48PM

Here's the factory I was on about, I can tell you for a fact there not all voluntary self isolating, I met one outside a shop yesterday awaiting results he was tested last Friday, I gave a figure of 84 positive it's actually 120 and going to rise further.

The worst scenario is in the case of the Roscrea one where it’s had an outbreak of Covid. We want to keep the factories open. We’ve been very, very clear about this.

“That factory, there are around 350 workers on the factory floor. There was up to 140 of those out sick throughout last week and 120 tested positive.”

A spokeswoman for Rosderra Irish Meats Group said co-ordinated testing of all staff at its Roscrea Plant has been taking place.

“A number of employees had a positive result from that testing and they are self-isolating per HSE protocols,” it said.

Fears for agrifood sector as three meat plants confirm Covid cases (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/fears-for-agrifood-sector-as-three-meat-plants-confirm-covid-cases-1.4242668

iancairns · 01-05-2020 12:59PM

We go live to Government offices

2asdZR1

C__MC · 01-05-2020 01:13PM

Will Harris lift the laws around restrictions anyone think?

I think the restrictions wont make a huge difference to most people from tonight on, many people are out and about as it is.

KrustyUCC · 01-05-2020 01:15PM

Naos wrote: »

They may be in a worse position than us in terms of cases/deaths, but look at the total number of ICU beds per 100k if things start going south:

Belgium as you've quoted have almost 2.5x the ICU beds we have.

I'm aware we have increased capacity recently with the Private hospital takeover, not sure if other countries have done similar, a quick google says they have so using the above to keep it like for like.

OK I take your point

Majority of other countries have plans in place though

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1135935/

Portugal should have less ICU capacity than us

Our ICU capacity due to COVID is 103 of the 312 beds we originally had

Apparently we should now have 800+ beds

Even considering non COVID ICU cases that Shoukd be a good buffer

rusty the athlete · 01-05-2020 01:19PM

gozunda wrote: »

And btw I was replying to those who dont believe in any restrictions - of whom there are many on this thread apparently.

If you read their postings properly you would not come to such ridiculous conclusions.

Strumms · 01-05-2020 01:23PM

C__MC wrote: »

Will Harris lift the laws around restrictions anyone think?

I think the restrictions wont make a huge difference to most people from tonight on, many people are out and about as it is.

Not a chance. Out and about is fine, but the reasons for being out and about and the distance from your home is key. Too much shîtty behavior so far.

If the Gardai are coming under pressure, augmenting them with members of the defense forces is the way to go. The wellbeing of the state it’s people depends on it. If you are not doing anything wrong you’ll have no need to worry.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 01-05-2020 01:23PM

Any idea what time the announcement will be made this evening from the government?

Zapy · 01-05-2020 01:24PM

Unfortunately, Our lockdown and the lifting of restrictions will go on much longer than most other countries.

It's not that we have a particularly nasty strain of the virus in Ireland, it's just that Leo and Simon have made such a monumental mess of our health system that it's basically useless in normal times, never mind in a crisis.
keeping people locked up makes their numbers look better for the agencies which scout talent for top European jobs and gives the impression they know what they're doing.

They asked for time and we gave it to them...I'm assuming/hoping after today that people will educate themselves, practice social distancing and make their own decisions about the continuation of life regardless of whatever next steps are announced.

nelly17 · 01-05-2020 01:27PM

Kobe Colossal Cape wrote: »

Any idea what time the announcement will be made this evening from the government?

The Meeting with NPHET is 3pm so Leo will probably be on the 6 one news - hes due on the Late Late tonight also

KrustyUCC · 01-05-2020 01:30PM

"Mr Creed was responding to a question from Sinn Féin TD Brian Stanley, who raised concerns about social distancing at a meat plant.

The Laois-Offaly TD said there were significant concerns about social distancing at the plant, where he alleged there had been 120 cases of the virus confirmed.

Mr Creed told the Dáil "that is not the information available to me", and he said that Department of Agriculture veterinary inspectors and staff were operating at the plant."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1135916/

More lies from the government

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 01:31PM

C__MC wrote: »

Will Harris lift the laws around restrictions anyone think?

I think the restrictions wont make a huge difference to most people from tonight on, many people are out and about as it is.

I hope they do as I want to get the hell out of here as the risk of staying has gone through the roof, I've a second home in a rural location and would feel a lot safer if I could get myself and the family to it.
Forcing people to stay when there's imminent danger is criminal.

gozunda · 01-05-2020 01:45PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I dont think anyone is arguing against the phased reopening it's the proper way to do things.
What's annoying people is being told constantly we're doing well but not well enough, when the vast majority of the general public have done what's been asked of them and seem to be still getting the blame for want of a better phrase as to why we're not in a position to start the phased reopening. When the HSE and dept of health have been talking about meeting this target of 15k tests a day for the last 4 weeks, likewise contact tracing not up to scratch. The public have done what's been asked, the powers that be haven't

I dont see that as being the case at all.

No one is saying people are to blameas far as I can see. Yes the numbers infected and dying needs to be reduced. The majority of people are going with the restrictions. It's a minority of eejits who are not.

Yes there are problems with contract tracing and other issues - it would be surprising that in the middle of a pandemic everything went ticketeyboo. It hasn't - but plenty has gone well. The country health service is not been overrun thankfully. The reason we need to keep going in the short term is so that is maintained. I believe most people understand that.

Juwwi · 01-05-2020 01:47PM

Just reading back a little bit ,,the contact tracing not being up to scratch is a bit of a joke ,, there are thousands in the public sector that could be moved to contact tracing if needed that are sitting at home doing nothing on full pay at the moment .

The testing part l can sort of understand there being teething problems but contact tracing we should be well on top of at this stage .

mandrake04 · 01-05-2020 01:52PM

hmmm wrote: »

Mass testing will not suppress this, it will only help to suppress it.

Social distancing and the ban on gatherings are probably the key measures which have suppressed the virus so far. They will have to continue, with some exceptions if possible.

Mass testing just tells you if you are going in the correct direction, but it has to be done right with results back in 12-48 hrs tops. None of this 2-3 week circle-jerking.

Too many infections now to try and suppress it, you can only restrict the growth take the edge off rather than suppress and snuff it out NZ style. The chance was missed in early-mid March

If you want to suppress it now you need to close down everything, supermarkets, off-licence, everything. No one steps out their door for 2 weeks, once the two weeks are up it will be suppressed and those still standing can walk out the door.

That's not going to happen ...so you can only stumble forward and restrict.

snotboogie · 01-05-2020 01:55PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Mass testing just tells you if you are going in the correct direction, but it has to be done right with results back in 12-48 hrs tops. None of this 2-3 week circle-jerking.

Too many infections now to try and suppress it, you can only restrict the growth take the edge off rather than suppress and snuff it out NZ style. The chance was missed in early-mid March

If you want to suppress it now you need to close down everything, supermarkets, off-licence, everything. No one steps out their door for 2 weeks, once the two weeks are up it will be suppressed and those still standing can walk out the door.

That's not going to happen ...so you can only stumble forward and restrict.

and have thousands of people policing the hundreds of border crossings with the North? No more entering Ireland at all for the foreseeable future?

gozunda · 01-05-2020 01:57PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

It's pure guesswork and nothing else when "estimating" how much of the population will potentially get infected.
There's no evidence to back any of it up.
For all we actually know, infections might have fallen anyway without intervention. Other endemic coronavirus strains increase in late winter/early spring then fall naturally. We have no data to prove this strain is any different.

I'll stick with the medical experts on that issue and ignore your personal musings if you dont mind ...

RugbyLad11 · 01-05-2020 01:58PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The key to the roadmap will be what is in each phase

It can't be too stung out and too unambitious or long

Take Belgium for example

They expect people to be able to host gatherings at home on May 18th

As an from Monday you can meet up with 2 people who dont live with them

All shops to reopen May 11th with social distancing

Their plan has specific dates in mind

Will be interesting to see if Leo's does later

Yeah he has to do something, the meeting up with two people would be such a moral boost but I won't hold my breath

never_mind · 01-05-2020 01:59PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Yeah he has to do some, the meeting up with two people would be such a moral boost but I won't hold my breath

The effects of this are beginning to take hold and am having quite horrible thoughts. This would be a lovely things for us to do safely. Even if I could visit a family member outside of 2k in their garden.

RugbyLad11 · 01-05-2020 02:00PM

showpony1 wrote: »

People that don't live at home with family will then be exposed to everyone they live with's gatherings?

YES! as this virus is not going anywhere so we must learn to live with it

niallo27 · 01-05-2020 02:01PM

Naos wrote: »

They may be in a worse position than us in terms of cases/deaths, but look at the total number of ICU beds per 100k if things start going south:

Belgium as you've quoted have almost 2.5x the ICU beds we have.

I'm aware we have increased capacity recently with the Private hospital takeover, not sure if other countries have done similar, a quick google says they have so using the above to keep it like for like.

Looking at this graph, Sweden must be absolutely ****ed. They will have 100k deaths going by this graph and the models the Irish government is using.

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 02:07PM

never_mind wrote: »

The effects of this are beginning to take hold and am having quite horrible thoughts. This would be a lovely things for us to do safely. Even if I could visit a family member outside of 2k in their garden.

Just go and if you get told turn back do, you won't be arrested. Just say it's your turn to get messages for someone cocooning..have the family member lined up to verify it.

Fitz* · 01-05-2020 02:08PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Yeah he has to do something, the meeting up with two people would be such a moral boost but I won't hold my breath

You know well though that Irish people would flout this and be meeting up with more than 2 people at the first attempt, and even some house parties too.

boring accountant · 01-05-2020 02:09PM

JayRoc wrote: »

Yes. Exactly my point.

I don't know why people keep bringing up 2km in relation to anything other than their daily exercise. It's infuriating

Tell that to the Gardaí outside my estate every other day.

gozunda · 01-05-2020 02:09PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

YES! as this virus is not going anywhere so we must learn to live with it

As was pointed our previously- its just as well a lot of just 'live with it' brigade weren't around during ww2.

So we are just to give up and surrender yes?

No restrictions and if someones dies of the disease tough titty?

Glad I dont live in your world ...

Roanmore · 01-05-2020 02:19PM

The one thing that annoys me here is people saying I'm going to listen to the medical experts over you.

A medical expert messed up my wife's surgery and left her with permanent nerve damage.
A medical expert presided over the Cervical Check controversy.
A medical expert presided over Hep C scandal.
A medical expert presided over the symphysiotomy scandal
Medical experts are presiding over the trolley numbers.

Yes of course listen to Medical experts, take on board what they say but this blind allegiance and look down attitude of some to people who question medical experts is nauseating and then when somebody is questioned they pull out the "dead relative" card.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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