Relaxation of restrictions Part II

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 11:06AM

Starting to sound like the guards might have a problem now as well, no great surprise as there all piling around in cars stopping us from traveling.

growleaves · 01-05-2020 11:07AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Because of restrictions

When somebody says "This is inevitable. This cannot be stopped" (Leo Varadkar) they are saying that even with restrictions x and y will happen.

When x and y do not happen that means the entire predictive framework is wrong/flawed.

When that happens you can no longer assume the other elements of that predictive framework are true. (You shouldn't assume it anyway since you would still be looking for proof.)

Gael23 · 01-05-2020 11:08AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Starting to sound like the guards might have a problem now as well, no great surprise as there all piling around in cars stopping us from traveling.

Problem in what sense?

gozunda · 01-05-2020 11:08AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Due to the problems with the slowness of Boards.ie in the last 48 hours I’ve stopped commenting here and indeed reading except for the last 2 pages.
I’ve also stopped commenting due to the abusive nature of some posters.
I’ll just say the following:
If this lockdown continues after Monday I’ll be living my life as I see fit myself.
I live alone. I’ve been on my own and seen nobody since 2nd week in March apart from 4 days work which has ended. I’m no longer going to stick to 2KM exercise.
I’ve bought a tent and will travel further for a few trips.

Harvey Norman are delivering a new washing machine tomorrow.

Water filtration company are coming to service my system on Tuesday

I has all my windows washed by a local company yesterday.

The country is silently and slowly getting back to some activity even in a small way. I applaud that.
For every keyboard warrior here shouting down people who are questioning these lockdowns, there are many of us now who are silently planning on getting back to some kind of (new) normal! They’re just not on Boards.

Sweet Maggie

I'm not sure at what point some people have got confused about the current restrictions. But most of the things you've listed eg washing machine replacements and other household maintenance such as water purification services have not been restricted todate. You could get those at any time. Ok window washing Im not sure about ...

I'm fairly amazed as one of the first to voluntarily go under lockdown - you have now chosen to throw all caution to the wind. As you've stated previously you have a vulnerable older relative.

My concern would be with those who seem to think that rates of infection cant continue to climb because they know better. Those people do not deserve any applause

KrustyUCC · 01-05-2020 11:09AM

So according to most papers today NPHET meets this morning and will give recommendations to Simon Harris

Cabinet meeting at three

Extension of restrictions by 2 or 3 weeks to be announced by Leo at 6

Tony Holohan wants 3 weeks so he will get it bringing us up to 8 weeks of full lockdown without the lifting or tweaking of a single restriction

Leo will tell us that we're doing so so well, flattening the curve, reducing the number of people in hospital, reducing number of people in ICU, keeping the R0 below 1, saving 3500 lives but it's not good enough

Little will be mentioned of the mess in nursing homes etc and lack of testing capacity in the HSE

Then Leo will go on the Late Late for a love in with Tubridy outlining his roadmap which won't outline what is good enough anyway

It will be as vague as possible and have phases that are 3 weeks apart and more than likely some a month apart extending restrictions for months on end

Depressing day ahead

the kelt · 01-05-2020 11:10AM

gozunda wrote: »

I never mentioned Boris. You did many many times. So yes it looks like you look to him for inspiration as you said "not even Borris..." etc etc.

And btw I was replying to those who dont believe in any restrictions - of whom there are many on this thread apparently.

And again this is a worldwide pandemic. It's not just the HSE or Ireland.

And incorrect again - no I did not say it was "great". I said it was a 'good analogy" And that stands.

For as long as we have people here suggesting that older people are "on borrowed time" and by implication expendable and that its all a big conspiracy to place young people on house arrest or wtte - then we are most certainly dealing with historic levels of stupidity. If it takes using simple analogies to point out just how daft these comnents are. Then so be it.

You didnt need to mention Boris, you echoed his "its a war analogy", you do get that but are of course trying to simplify it by using the logic "well you said the word so you must believe it"

Generally by a certain age people tend to grow out of the "well you mentioned the word so you must believe it" method of debate but ill not suppose age in this respect.

Its cool that you think having a war with a virus is a good analogy its isnt really. War kills people whilst also devastating infrastructure in a country for example, a virus doesnt damage infrastructure. In wars we send our young fit and healthy men out to fight, with this virus we hide them away.

The last time we actually faced a pandemic like this was actually during a war and if you actually look at the differences between both they are many. The problem with war metaphors is they tend to be metaphorical and lack clarity and precision which is the exact opposite of whats required to fight a virus for example.

War is a call to arms, go out there and fight whens thats exactly what we shouldnt be doing, ergo stupid analogy.

Its certainly not a conspiracy, neither is it a case we should sacrifice anyone regardless of age, what it is though is its increasingly looking like the management of this has not been up to scratch to be kind.

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 11:13AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Starting to sound like the guards might have a problem now as well, no great surprise as there all piling around in cars stopping us from traveling.

Haven't heard anything about the gardai having issues, I do know they're working in the same pairs since the start of this.
Drew Harris did mention on Wednesday that the current policing level is not sustainable for much longer

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 11:15AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Problem in what sense?

As in they have clusters, I know of one living with there elderly parents who've been cocooning and the mother ended up in ICU with it last night, that one case by right is going to shut down a city station. They'll all have to isolate.

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 11:16AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Haven't heard anything about the gardai having issues, I do know they're working in the same pairs since the start of this.
Drew Harris did mention on Wednesday that the current policing level is not sustainable for much longer

You heard nothing about meat factorys either until I said it yesterday, I'm out and about so can see what's happening.

Podge201 · 01-05-2020 11:18AM

Keep Dublin under lock down and let the rest of the country start up.

01-05-2020 11:18AM

As of midnight 27th April, only 75 people under the age of 65 have actually died from Covid 19. Only 14 under 45.

Its very clear that we need to continue to ask the elderly to cocoon and try to get the nursing homes under control. This is the most important step. Get this in order and the death rate drops to almost nothing.

For everybody else, the 2KM should be dropped immediately. Business should start to reopen with social distancing in place. Office workers to remain at home were possible, pubs and restaurants to stay closed for another few weeks.

The risk of death from Covid 19 if you are under 45 is almost non existent.

gozunda · 01-05-2020 11:19AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

And the alternative is? Sacrifice our economy for years to come for an illness whose impact is slight for 90% of the population, at least. Yes that makes sense.

Thanks for proving the analogy. I'm fairly sure the Vichy supporters in France durting ww2 believed that the impact of deportations would be slight on 90 % of the population....

Again to repeat it's not only about who dies - the current restrictions are to control the rate of infection and stop our health services been overwhelmed. If you are in doubt - take a look at what happened in Italy. They were left with no choice but slap on draconian restrictions when it was almost too late. And yes their economy has taken a huge hit because of the impact of disease coupled with one of the highestvdeath rates in the world.

Only now after the lockdown are they seeing progress. They are startung to lift some restrictions but then they were one of the first countries to become infected.

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 11:19AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So according to most papers today NPHET meets this morning and will give recommendations to Simon Harris

Cabinet meeting at three

Extension of restrictions by 2 or 3 weeks to be announced by Leo at 6

Tony Holohan wants 3 weeks so he will get it bringing us up to 8 weeks of full lockdown without the lifting or tweaking of a single restriction

Leo will tell us that we're doing so so well, flattening the curve, reducing the number of people in hospital, reducing number of people in ICU, keeping the R0 below 1, saving 3500 lives but it's not good enough

Little will be mentioned of the mess in nursing homes etc and lack of testing capacity in the HSE

Then Leo will go on the Late Late for a love in with Tubridy outlining his roadmap which won't outline what is good enough anyway

It will be as vague as possible and have phases that are 3 weeks apart and more than likely some a month apart extending restrictions for months on end

Depressing day ahead

Good luck to him getting the public to run with another 3 weeks.

Its going to be the most vague plan with no substance, no timeline even. We'll be the last country in europe to exit it at this rate and an economy that's in bits for years to come with hundreds of thousands unemployed. Depressing

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 11:22AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You heard nothing about meat factorys either until I said it yesterday, I'm out and about so can see what's happening.

I'm out and about also, dont see what that has to do anything.

Have a number of friends in the gardai based in DMR and they're working away without issue at the moment.

Cyrus · 01-05-2020 11:22AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So according to most papers today NPHET meets this morning and will give recommendations to Simon Harris

Cabinet meeting at three

Extension of restrictions by 2 or 3 weeks to be announced by Leo at 6

Tony Holohan wants 3 weeks so he will get it bringing us up to 8 weeks of full lockdown without the lifting or tweaking of a single restriction

Leo will tell us that we're doing so so well, flattening the curve, reducing the number of people in hospital, reducing number of people in ICU, keeping the R0 below 1, saving 3500 lives but it's not good enough

Little will be mentioned of the mess in nursing homes etc and lack of testing capacity in the HSE

Then Leo will go on the Late Late for a love in with Tubridy outlining his roadmap which won't outline what is good enough anyway

It will be as vague as possible and have phases that are 3 weeks apart and more than likely some a month apart extending restrictions for months on end

Depressing day ahead

what a crock of dung

the kelt · 01-05-2020 11:24AM

Come next week i do expect more and more people to be out and about.

I know of companies that would be deemed to be an essential business under the current circumstances but decided to hold back and put their shoulder to the wheel for example in the belief locking down for 3 weeks would help control this and therefore restrictions eased after 3 weeks.

A few of these ive spoken to have decided enough is enough, theyre back operating from next week. These are companies that could have been operating but decided to be good citizens and lock some of their staff down , go that extra bit for the few weeks.

Other companies again in the essential business sector took similar approaches in not giving all their staff letters to go out about their business even though technically they could have, again i know a few of these companies who plan to give more of their staff letters to move out and about as part of their business.

Ignoring any semblance of people not obeying restrictions going forward there is undoubtedly going to be more people out and about from next week imho.

Jan Blomqvist · 01-05-2020 11:26AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So according to most papers today NPHET meets this morning and will give recommendations to Simon Harris

Cabinet meeting at three

Extension of restrictions by 2 or 3 weeks to be announced by Leo at 6

Tony Holohan wants 3 weeks so he will get it bringing us up to 8 weeks of full lockdown without the lifting or tweaking of a single restriction

Leo will tell us that we're doing so so well, flattening the curve, reducing the number of people in hospital, reducing number of people in ICU, keeping the R0 below 1, saving 3500 lives but it's not good enough

Little will be mentioned of the mess in nursing homes etc and lack of testing capacity in the HSE

Then Leo will go on the Late Late for a love in with Tubridy outlining his roadmap which won't outline what is good enough anyway

It will be as vague as possible and have phases that are 3 weeks apart and more than likely some a month apart extending restrictions for months on end

Depressing day ahead

Any source or just a prediction?

drunkmonkey · 01-05-2020 11:27AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm out and about also, dont see what that has to do anything.

Have a number of friends in the gardai based in DMR and they're working away without issue at the moment.

This ones over west. it's as much as I'm saying.

nj27 · 01-05-2020 11:28AM

the kelt wrote: »

Come next week i do expect more and more people to be out and about.

I know of companies that would be deemed to be an essential business under the current circumstances but decided to hold back and put their shoulder to the wheel for example in the belief locking down for 3 weeks would help control this and therefore restrictions eased after 3 weeks.

A few of these ive spoken to have decided enough is enough, theyre back operating from next week. These are companies that could have been operating but decided to be good citizens and lock some of their staff down , go that extra bit for the few weeks.

Other companies again in the essential business sector took similar approaches in not giving all their staff letters to go out about their business even though technically they could have, again i know a few of these companies who plan to give more of their staff letters to move out and about as part of their business.

Ignoring any semblance of people not obeying restrictions going forward there is undoubtedly going to be more people out and about from next week imho.

I'm off out starting tomorrow for morning jogs in St Anne's. Avoiding the crowded streets and get a bit of peace.

tobefrank321 · 01-05-2020 11:29AM

Deleted User wrote: »

As of midnight 27th April, only 75 people under the age of 65 have actually died from Covid 19. Only 14 under 45.

Its very clear that we need to continue to ask the elderly to cocoon and try to get the nursing homes under control. This is the most important step. Get this in order and the death rate drops to almost nothing.

For everybody else, the 2KM should be dropped immediately. Business should start to reopen with social distancing in place. Office workers to remain at home were possible, pubs and restaurants to stay closed for another few weeks.

The risk of death from Covid 19 if you are under 45 is almost non existent.

Most of those U45s who died had underlying conditions also. The vast majority of the elderly also had underlying conditions. Something like 90% of those over 80 make a full recovery from covid 19 and that's without going near a hospital or ICU as most nursing home residents don't go there.

Covid 19 is a very targeted illness, and we now know who the high risk and low risk categories are.

It made sense to lockdown until we got a better understanding of it and built up capacity. We've done that and now is the time to tailor the lockdown to target high risk groups so we can get deaths among them down to the bare minimum.

Pitch n Putt · 01-05-2020 11:33AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No, my own view on this probably changes daily, however what I think long term may serve us better both as a society, and an economy, is to take a bit more pain, possibly 4-6 weeks,and get cases here down to a very low level. At that point instead of the baby steps approach, which essentially only has the economy on life support for the next 9 to 12 months, with massive social distancing restrictions in place across the economy and the entire hospitality sector at no more than 30% capacity, we could instead have a wider opening of society, with approaching normal levels of social interactions with the exception of large gatherings. We would need an air tight contact tracing system and quarantine in place at entry points, however life would get back to approaching normality for the vast majority of people.

Yeah I d agree in theory with what your plan is but the big problem with it is NPHET

Caution is there mantra be it now or six weeks time.

They will go for baby steps opening up no matter when that is.

My fear is will they be brave enough to hold when the inevitable spike in cases comes

iamwhoiam · 01-05-2020 11:35AM

If they want to cocoon the elderly I personally think they will have to tweak the criteria .There are thousands of fit , healthy , no underlying issues 70 year olds . 70 year olds are often still working and are healthier than many much younger people.It is torture for a strong healthy 70 year old to be locked down like this .

tobefrank321 · 01-05-2020 11:37AM

gozunda wrote: »

Thanks for proving the analogy. I'm fairly sure the Vichy supporters in France durting ww2 believed that the impact of deportations would be slight on 90 % of the population....

Again to repeat it's not only about who dies - the current restrictions are to control the rate of infection and stop our health services been overwhelmed. If you are in doubt - take a look at what happened in Italy. They were left with no choice but slap on draconian restrictions when it was almost too late. And yes their economy has taken a huge hit because of the impact of disease coupled with one of the highestvdeath rates in the world.

Only now after the lockdown are they seeing progress. They are startung to lift some restrictions but then they were one of the first countries to become infected.

Yes we had a look at Italy. Predominately an illness of the elderly, obese and/or those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, etc A very targeted illness that demands a very targeted response.

Here we locked down everyone and forgot to properly lockdown nursing homes. We still leave positive cases in nursing homes, which risks contaminating other residents, staff and the wider community. We still use nursing homes as step down facilities from hospitals which risks bring covid19 in there, and I believe one of the conditions of recent help to nursing homes was they'd take in more patients which if true is almost a murderous mistake. There's also a risk that HSE carers are going between homes because of staff shortages, with the risk of spreading it that way. The speed at which it spread in nursing homes shows there was no serious effort to target them.

Shutting down the community is the lazymans approach to a very specific problem. Its akin to shutting down roads because of car accidents caused by speeding or drunk drivers. You target the specific cause, not shut everything down.

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 11:39AM

the kelt wrote: »

Come next week i do expect more and more people to be out and about.

I know of companies that would be deemed to be an essential business under the current circumstances but decided to hold back and put their shoulder to the wheel for example in the belief locking down for 3 weeks would help control this and therefore restrictions eased after 3 weeks.

A few of these ive spoken to have decided enough is enough, theyre back operating from next week. These are companies that could have been operating but decided to be good citizens and lock some of their staff down , go that extra bit for the few weeks.

Other companies again in the essential business sector took similar approaches in not giving all their staff letters to go out about their business even though technically they could have, again i know a few of these companies who plan to give more of their staff letters to move out and about as part of their business.

Ignoring any semblance of people not obeying restrictions going forward there is undoubtedly going to be more people out and about from next week imho.

Agree with all of this.

Likewise in my own area a few business spent the week under going a deep clean, all plan on opening next week.

Downlinz · 01-05-2020 11:39AM

Podge201 wrote: »

Keep Dublin under lock down and let the rest of the country start up.

A regional approach is what a lot of other countries are doing but we'd need a serious Gardai presence to enforce this or otherwise you're going to have infected Dubs flocking to areas of the country with relaxed restrictions and increasing the spread.

retro:electro · 01-05-2020 11:42AM

Am I understanding this correctly- according to this leaked timeline, there will be three weeks/ one month between each stage. And there may even be the possibility that we will have to move back a stage if it’s “not working”. Meaning it could be well into August before some services and small business will be open?
Does Leo think the public are actually going to accept this?
****ing grim.

ixoy · 01-05-2020 11:43AM

Downlinz wrote: »

A regional approach is what a lot of other countries are doing but we'd need a serious Gardai presence to enforce this or otherwise you're going to have infected Dubs flocking to areas of the country with relaxed restrictions and increasing the spread.

A lot of those regions are closer to the size of Ireland though and I imagine within those regions too it varied greatly just as it has here.
Even within Dublin, it's not so straightforward - does County Dublin get off easier as it's got fewer case than Dublin City? What about my area - the last I saw of the cluster map it was a little clean area.

gozunda · 01-05-2020 11:43AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As of midnight 27th April, only 75 people under the age of 65 have actually died from Covid 19. Only 14 under 45.Its very clear that we need to continue to ask the elderly to cocoon and try to get the nursing homes under control. This is the most important step. Get this in order and the death rate drops to almost nothing.For everybody else, the 2KM should be dropped immediately. Business should start to reopen with social distancing in place. Office workers to remain at home were possible, pubs and restaurants to stay closed for another few weeks.

The risk of death from Covid 19 if you are under 45 is almost non existent.

Why the need to keep repeating the same daft stuff again and again?

I do love the fact you seem to think anyone over 45 is 'elderly' lol. And it's not just about the "death rate" or about those "under 45". Its about everyone.

And again - the central issue is keeping the rate of infection controlled and not overwhelming our health services. Those under 45 can spread the disease just as much as anyone else. There are also many under 45s with Long term illnesses.

A check of the stats showed that on one given day approx 6% of those under 45 were hospitalised. And that says nothing of the many thousands more of those under 45 who will get the disease and have to fight it themselves at home.

Older people - even those cocooning - dont exist in complete isolation. They still need to interact with medical services, food deliveries and everything else needed for survival. An increase in infection rates will have a devastating impact on them and others.

Of course restrictions will be relaxed overtime. Bizarely thinking that it's only an old person's problem does not help anyone

un5byh7sqpd2x0 · 01-05-2020 11:46AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The risk of death from Covid 19 if you are under 45 is almost non existent.

Tell that to the families of the 14 you mentioned, gowl.

stephenjmcd · 01-05-2020 11:47AM

retro:electro wrote: »

Am I understanding this correctly- according to this leaked timeline, there will be three weeks/ one month between each stage. And there may even be the possibility that we will have to move back a stage if it’s “not working”. Meaning it could be well into August before some services and small business will be open?
Does Leo think the public are actually going to accept this?
****ing grim.

Sounds like it, not a plan to win over the public anyway. Let's see what gets announced

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Comments