Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Hearty80 · 30-04-2020 03:29PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We haven't done our job, people with it aren't isolating, I'm starting to think we didn't go hard enough on the lockdown, we should have locked everything down. Gave people time to stock up on food, medicine, booze then shut everything up. We went for a soft lockdown and it didn't work, I don't think extending it will have much effect as it's the wrong tactic from the start.

Are you actually a Drunk Monkey??

SAMTALK · 30-04-2020 03:30PM

bluelamp wrote: »

Yes but it's not the point I was making. I'm not talking about a perfect world.

I'm saying that regardless of how hard you try to keep teenagers indoors, how strict a parent should be etc etc, realistically - you wont get complete conformance from all of them.

Regardless of whether or not we are told to stay within 2km of our house past the 5th of May - it wont happen.

Mask wearing is realistic, hand washing is realistic, social distancing is realistic, cocooning for at risk people is realistic.

Keeping young and healthy people within 2km of their house, is not realistic, and its simply not going to happen whether we like it or not.

It happened in other countries but they had a complete lockdown.

We got away light but of course a certain minority will always go against the grain.

I was glad we could get out of the house but it's ridiculous the amount of people who abuse this. I still have to work and I see cars pulling up at shops with 2/4 people getting out and going to shop. People walking in groups of 3 and 4 not from same house. Cyclists way out of 2 km zone.

Government made mistakes but let's be honest , it's up to people to take responsiblity for themselves and their actions.

I have 2 young people in my house and they havent been anywhere in weeks.

I do the shopping as the desiginated person in the house. they go out for runs/walks within the 2km. They don't meet with their friends. I'm sure this is the same for the majority of young people so it is realistic, why on earth would it not be ?

Sweet.Science · 30-04-2020 03:35PM

SAMTALK wrote: »

It happened in other countries but they had a complete lockdown.

We got away light but of course a certain minority will always go against the grain.

I was glad we could get out of the house but it's ridiculous the amount of people who abuse this. I still have to work and I see cars pulling up at shops with 2/4 people getting out and going to shop. People walking in groups of 3 and 4 not from same house. Cyclists way out of 2 km zone.

Government made mistakes but let's be honest , it's up to people to take responsiblity for themselves and their actions.

I have 2 young people in my house and they havent been anywhere in weeks.

I do the shopping as the desiginated person in the house. they go out for runs/walks within the 2km. They don't meet with their friends. I'm sure this is the same for the majority of young people so it is realistic, why on earth would it not be ?

The r0 2 weeks ago was below 1 . The public have been great and we have done our job.

What is wrong with this country

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 03:38PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

You hit the nail on the head, there is only so long you can stop a couple from seeing each other.

I haven't seen my partner in over a month, it has been so difficult but I was able to cope because I truly believed that we would get some ease of restrictions on the 5th...Because r0 below 1, most new cases confined to nursing homes and ICU numbers well below capacity.

But now if there is no change after the 5th people will take it into their own hands and see their loved ones.

Yes exactly

From 12th of March to 5th of May is 55 days

According to the Irish Times timetable it will be at least another 2 months if you don't live within 20km of your partner

That's up to 30th of June which is 111 days

How can the government expect any couple to stick to that?

NH2013 · 30-04-2020 03:38PM

bluelamp wrote: »

It's time be realistic - if rules and regulations are too difficult to follow, people will stop following them. Human nature.

Whether you are a lock down fanatic, or a "just a flu" believer - it's in everyone's interests for these rules to be relaxed slightly or people will stop following any of them.

Will a couple who dont live together continue to not see each other? No.

Is there any harm in people sitting in an elderly parents garden having a flask of tea a few metres away from them? No.

It's time to get real, whether you are 2km for your house or 200km away, you can still follow social distancing measures.

I'd put a bet now that the 5th of May will see an easing of restrictions whether its the government, or the people who decide its happening.

Sums up my opinion on it exactly,

I will continue to comply with social distancing after Tuesday, good hand hygeine, respiratory etiquette, minimising my movements etc, but I haven't seen my other half in 7 weeks now as we live apart, so I will be visiting them and I will be calling over to my parents to sit in their garden and have a chat in person.

I've bought in and complied for this long, in an attempt to do my bit to hold back the virus and flatten the curve, but the curve is now flat and shrinking, the HSE has got it's shipments of PPE in from China, it's set up its extra ICU capacity in hospitals and it's step down facilities in City West, it has it's primary care "Covid Hubs" set up, it's had it's breathing space so I will be easing my restrictions after this weekend, while still maintaining pragmatic and appropriate measures to reduce the spread such as social distancing and hand hygeine etc.

I would like ideally for this to be the advice approved by public heath officials but regardless at this stage I've done my bit. I probably won't have a job to go back to at the end of this, a skill set that won't be very transferable at all, I'm not going to lose my relationship over this as well or the comfort of sitting down and chatting with my family.

jemser · 30-04-2020 03:39PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We haven't done our job, people with it aren't isolating, I'm starting to think we didn't go hard enough on the lockdown, we should have locked everything down. Gave people time to stock up on food, medicine, booze then shut everything up. We went for a soft lockdown and it didn't work, I don't think extending it will have much effect as it's the wrong tactic from the start.

I used to wonder how the Nazis and other totalitarian dictatorships came to power bit not anymore, the pure stupidity and willingness of people to give up their rights and not question anything they are been told is staggering. Here we have and unelected government been lead by a group that includes a failed health Minister and the head of one of the worst run state bodies(hse) and many more faceless unelected people telling us they know what's best for us. The lockdown was needed at the start as nobody really knew what was going on, but as more information comes out it shows this virus is not the doomsday senario we feared. A ring of steel around the vulnerable and care homes, sensible social distancing and adequate ppe for the health services is what's needed, instead we are destroying our economy, locking people in their homes and taking away our freedoms so Harris and co. can cover their mistakes and stay in power

Stormyteacup · 30-04-2020 03:45PM

NPHET says testing (or lack of) has no bearing on decision about easing of restrictions.

I don't believe the government are being dishonest but why keep peddling meaningless figures?

Can we not know;

Number of new cases as a percentage of tests to arrive at this figure - useless without context, how many tests were carried out to arrive at this figure? Can we not get it as a percentage of tests carried out each time?

Separation of RCH figures and general hospital figures and/or others - should be a distinction between these for new cases and for new deaths each time reported. Total is important, but breakdown gives a better trend for infections and deaths in the general population.
NPHET have this information for their analysis, why not share it with us?

Lag time in reporting - yes, understandable, but publish actual dates of death vs reported dates more regularly.

Decision making process of 'assumed cases' - useful information and recommended by the WHO, but I can't find information on guidelines for certification.

Hospital admissions - would be helpful to know the numbers admitted to hospital because of COVID-19 each day, again there would be a lag while waiting for test results but this figure would be more useful than total numbers in hospital with COVID-19, as duration in hospital varies greatly and an average number of days in hospital doesn't give a clear picture.

Total free capacity in ICU - need to be prepared for possible surge after easing of restrictions but what is the target for free capacity in ICU?

Maybe there is a need for continuation of restrictions but at least make it clear to everyone why we need it.

Government has passed the buck to NPHET who will now be held completely accountable for any decision on easing of restrictions. In their place, I know I would be erring on the side of caution.

Give us the figures in context so we can see for ourselves if we've been lax or not.

30-04-2020 03:47PM

Discodog wrote: »

Listening to Newstalk. There have been a succession of contributors warning that deaths from lack of routine medicine will kill more than Covid.

Shipments of Medical devices designed to save and / or extend lives have dropped 60% where I work.

Nermal · 30-04-2020 03:49PM

peasant wrote: »

Depending where the virus strikes and what clusters of people it takes out (they don't all need to die btw...being out sick at home, unable to do anything with a so called "mild" case, they are still not productive or consuming anything) ..the following scenarios are all possible:

- enough key people in the electricity supply can't show up for work ...the lights go out
- enough key people in the banks are sick ...you can't get your money
- enough key people in the food supply chain go missing ...toilet paper will be the least of your worries.

I don't think I need to mention what would happen to society if one or more of the above came to pass.

'It wasn't the lockdown, it was the virus', is up there with 'we acted on the best information we had' and 'things would be much worse WITHOUT the lockdown'.

None of them are true. None of them.

Utilities, banks and supply chains would not be affected by the hospitalisation rate of this virus (fourth column, 0.2% to 1.9% for the working age population). They WILL be affected by lockdowns and widespread economic destruction.

https://twitter.com/RF_HFC/status/1252210492531183622

The less credulous among the populace would have quickly realised that the media were sensationalising the virus and economic demand would have returned to something approaching a mild recession, rather than the biggest depression in a century.

tobefrank321 · 30-04-2020 03:52PM

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

This.

Every single day at the start, either Simon Harris or Tony Holohan explained that they didn't want to impose harsher restrictions any earlier than they absolutely had to, because they becoming increasingly hard to stick to as time goes on.

How they can now resist saying "I told you so" is beyond me.

If I had the energy I'd go back and see who was clamouring for a total lockdown early on, and see if they're the same ones now screaming for the (non-)lockdown to be lifted because they're sick of it. I bet there'd be a lot of crossover.

Personally I would have preferred an earlier lockdown. Those countries that locked down earlier than us but especially their borders are already opening up again and have far lower numbers than us which means they won't lockdown for several months if at all again.

As for impatience under lockdown, you may have a point, but honestly, we could remain in our current lockdown for years and the numbers would still be high.

When you have open borders, an open economy, etc etc, you will never get the numbers low. At some stage you have to accept a lockdown is no longer the right approach and aim for something more targeted, especially as perhaps 90% or higher if you consider the large number of untested people out there will only ever get a mild or asymptomatic infection of covid19.

brick tamland · 30-04-2020 03:57PM

faceman wrote: »

Varadkar has given an indirect reference in the Dail today as to when we can expect to be flying again. When quizzed on the refund issue with Ryanair today and went to to say that he would like to see "Ryanair and Aer Lingus back in operation sometime in the summer, sometime in August"

I guess that can be used as an expectation

O'Leary said July on Sky News the other day. I'm sure he didn't pull that out of nowhere either, he will be surely getting briefed from senior government sources here and in UK.

SAMTALK · 30-04-2020 03:57PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

The r0 2 weeks ago was below 1 . The public have been great and we have done our job.

What is wrong with this country

Yes the majority have but the job is only done when the virus is under control, the beds required is manageable and the economy is back running under strict health guidelines.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 30-04-2020 04:00PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yes exactly

From 12th of March to 5th of May is 55 days

According to the Irish Times timetable it will be at least another 2 months if you don't live within 20km of your partner

That's up to 30th of June which is 111 days

How can the government expect any couple to stick to that?

Not a hope of that! People may wait until late May but not a hope after that

Goose76 · 30-04-2020 04:06PM

bluelamp wrote: »

Mask wearing is realistic, hand washing is realistic, social distancing is realistic, cocooning for at risk people is realistic.

For how long though? Are at risk groups expect to wave goodbye to all meaniful aspects of their entire lives (and indeed livelihoods) until there's a widely available vaccine?

I cannot believe there isn't more focus and attention given to this, both on official news sites and speculative mediums like Boards.

bluelamp · 30-04-2020 04:08PM

Goose76 wrote: »

For how long though? Are at risk groups expect to wave goodbye to all meaniful aspects of their entire lives (and indeed livelihoods) until there's a widely available vaccine?

I cannot believe there isn't more focus and attention given to this, both on official news sites and speculative mediums like Boards.

What's the alternative?

30-04-2020 04:09PM

Kobe Colossal Cape wrote: »

Not a hope of that! People may wait until late May but not a hope after that

Who are people going to blame if it turns out we reduce restrictions too soon?

By the way, I am of the opinion that we probably should reduce them a little

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 30-04-2020 04:12PM

They should factor in some trips to family/friends e.g once a week or month even!

Not easily done, but important nonetheless.

30-04-2020 04:14PM

brick tamland wrote: »

O'Leary said July on Sky News the other day. I'm sure he didn't pull that out of nowhere either, he will be surely getting briefed from senior government sources here and in UK.

They wont be back in business if there is mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock · 30-04-2020 04:17PM

Goose76 wrote: »

For how long though? Are at risk groups expect to wave goodbye to all meaniful aspects of their entire lives (and indeed livelihoods) until there's a widely available vaccine?

I cannot believe there isn't more focus and attention given to this, both on official news sites and speculative mediums like Boards.

Well, that's what's what's being asked of everyone at the moment. Either you cocoon the at-risk people, lockdown everyone or just accept the risks.

None of this is sustainable until a vaccine is available and even then, theres no guarantee it'll work.

Padraig Mor · 30-04-2020 04:19PM

bluelamp wrote: »

It's time be realistic - if rules and regulations are too difficult to follow, people will stop following them. Human nature.

Whether you are a lock down fanatic, or a "just a flu" believer - it's in everyone's interests for these rules to be relaxed slightly or people will stop following any of them.

Will a couple who dont live together continue to not see each other? No.

Is there any harm in people sitting in an elderly parents garden having a flask of tea a few metres away from them? No.

It's time to get real, whether you are 2km for your house or 200km away, you can still follow social distancing measures.

I'd put a bet now that the 5th of May will see an easing of restrictions whether its the government, or the people who decide its happening.

+1.

There is no scientific basis whatsoever for the restrictions in their current form to be maintained beyond May 5th. The vast majority of the community have adhered to the restrictions and done what they were asked - we've done amazingly well as a people. We've already been told - what, two weeks ago now? - that community transmission is "virtually zero". The R0 is ~0.5, one of the lowest in Europe if I'm correct. Currently, the virus is not a serious threat to the average person or the community at large. The lockdown as an appropriate response to the threat at the time and did its job. It is now time to begin the process of reducing restrictions. Despite what the lockdown bedwetters here try to claim, this does not mean that those in favour of liberalisation want an immediate end to all restrictions - nothing could be further from the truth. It'll still be quite a while before we're sitting in pubs again, or the elderly are pootling around town. First thing that needs to go is the 2km limit - and not replaced with a 5/10km limit either - and for parks etc to open again. There is no valid reason for me or anyone else not to bring my kids to a forest 10/20/30km away and go for a walk. I know the Nervous Nellies here think that people will catch the virus en masse in parks - well, they're simply wrong - for the most part this is not a disease of the outdoors and you'd want to pretty damn unlucky to pick this up in your average national park anyway, not to mind if social distancing is employed as far as practicable (which of course it should be).

Will the infection rate climb with reducing restrictions? More than likely, but the degree of that and its extent are far from clear. Just in case, we need additional overhead in our health service - which we have in spades! We have ~100 patients in ICU with Covid-19 currently. IIRC total surge ICU capacity (according to the HSE consultant on here) in the country is in the order of 1000 beds. Even allowing for non-Covid ICU patients, that's a lot of extra capacity. How many reports have we heard that many hospitals are in large part near empty or very quiet? We have private hospitals being paid €115 million a month to look after public patients - and they're empty or near empty! We have loads of spare capacity in the system to deal with a surge if it comes. Now, I'm sure that'll be misinterpreted by the lockdown fetishists as me justifying going to the pub saying "to hell if others get sick, plenty of hospital space for them". Again, completely wrong - as we reduce restrictions we need to keep our eye on the ball in case things go awry.

This is now primarily a disease of nursing homes, long term residential facilities and healthcare facilities and this is where we need to focus our attention. There have been considerable failings by the HSE in dealing with these and I honestly believe that any continuation of the lockdown is an attempt to distract attention from this. To be honest, I'm not quite ready to raise the pitchforks for Holohan yet - I'm sure he and his colleagues did what they thought was best and it's not as if other countries don't have similar problems. The average person did not cause the nursing home outbreaks. We've done what we were asked to do and we've done it well, bringing the virus pretty much to its knees in the community at large. Yet if I want to pop my kids in the car and bring them to the woods for a ramble while maintaining social distancing I'll be turned around by the Gardai if stopped (and there has been a continual checkpoint on the only access to/from my area since Easter) - yet Travellers are allowed break the rules with impunity and with the connivance of Official Ireland?

It's time to start relaxing the restrictions.

FWIW I'm a microbiologist and have significant responsibility for infection control (incl Covid-19) in a large organisation which includes healthcare settings.

Clonmel1000 · 30-04-2020 04:24PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They wont be back in business if there is mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals.

Let’s hope things will have improved so that won’t be mandatory.

tobefrank321 · 30-04-2020 04:25PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

The r0 2 weeks ago was below 1 . The public have been great and we have done our job.

What is wrong with this country

We have done our job, the government and HSE have not.

I was reading the thread on here about who has been tested. One poster was looking to get tested after reporting some possible symptoms of covid 19. Eventually the HSE rang him back and advised him to come to the test centre by taxi or public transport. If he was positive he could infect the taxi driver or subsequent passengers or else infect many people on public transport.

This is the what you are dealing with when it comes to the HSE. Benny Hill would make a better effort at dealing with covid 19.

Its been the same since the start of this outbreak and continues to be the case with their treatment of nursing homes. Putting the entire country under lockdown indefinitely is just a cover for their incompetence. People have had enough.

easypazz · 30-04-2020 04:27PM

I know a few people who have broken the lockdown in recent days. Over 70's who went by car to a bottle bank, others driving to location to do a nice walk while in a roundabout way going shopping, getting paint through the back door of a shop, haircuts etc.

The shamers will have lost interest in reporting everything by this stage and are breaking the lockdown themselves.

The lockdown ends for me next week. Enough is enough.

Massive increase in road traffic next week, the guards won't be able to enforce the lockdown with endless roadblocks.

What Username Guidelines · 30-04-2020 04:29PM

Padraig Mor wrote: »

+1.
IIRC total surge ICU capacity (according to the HSE consultant on here) in the country is in the order of 1000 beds.

I was convinced I had read this somewhere else, or maybe in the order of 800, but cannot find where it was.. Any ideas?

Agree with your post. The 2km thing I actually understand, it keeps people close to home and 'bubbles' communities in some cases. Works well in rural areas perhaps but isn't a good nationwide-rule. It will also bubble lots of apartment dwellers into a busy circle. The theory is probably to stop crowding as seen in Parks, mountains, trails, etc. but in reality they jsut need to bang on about keeping distance.

C__MC · 30-04-2020 04:30PM

When is the Brits ending lockdown?

When it ends across the water, Leo will be doing likewise

Its farcical that restrictions are not ending Tuesday in some capacity.

Government have failed businesses completely

I am from rural Ireland and the governments failure to halt this virus with the correct measure will signal the end of any sort of economy in rural parts of thr country

Gael23 · 30-04-2020 04:30PM

Reproduction rate is 0.5 so restrictions need to be removed

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 04:32PM

Kobe Colossal Cape wrote: »

Not a hope of that! People may wait until late May but not a hope after that

Yes i think you're right

I hope the Irish Times is wrong but I fear if they are wrong it will be because their timeline is too short not too long

Then those people who need to go to see their families or other halfs for mental health reasons, will be used as a stick to further increase the lockdown

Vicious circle

ninebeanrows · 30-04-2020 04:33PM

Out today and many cars on the road .

First i have noticed a significant relaxation.

People need some guidance ASAP.

Think without any announcement the lockdown falls apart within days.

the kelt · 30-04-2020 04:33PM

Padraig Mor wrote: »

+1.

There is no scientific basis whatsoever for the restrictions in their current form to be maintained beyond May 5th. The vast majority of the community have adhered to the restrictions and done what they were asked - we've done amazingly well as a people. We've already been told - what, two weeks ago now? - that community transmission is "virtually zero". The R0 is ~0.5, one of the lowest in Europe if I'm correct. Currently, the virus is not a serious threat to the average person or the community at large. The lockdown as an appropriate response to the threat at the time and did its job. It is now time to begin the process of reducing restrictions. Despite what the lockdown bedwetters here try to claim, this does not mean that those in favour of liberalisation want an immediate end to all restrictions - nothing could be further from the truth. It'll still be quite a while before we're sitting in pubs again, or the elderly are pootling around town. First thing that needs to go is the 2km limit - and not replaced with a 5/10km limit either - and for parks etc to open again. There is no valid reason for me or anyone else not to bring my kids to a forest 10/20/30km away and go for a walk. I know the Nervous Nellies here think that people will catch the virus en masse in parks - well, they're simply wrong - for the most part this is not a disease of the outdoors and you'd want to pretty damn unlucky to pick this up in your average national park anyway, not to mind if social distancing is employed as far as practicable (which of course it should be).

Will the infection rate climb with reducing restrictions? More than likely, but the degree of that and its extent are far from clear. Just in case, we need additional overhead in our health service - which we have in spades! We have ~100 patients in ICU with Covid-19 currently. IIRC total surge ICU capacity (according to the HSE consultant on here) in the country is in the order of 1000 beds. Even allowing for non-Covid ICU patients, that's a lot of extra capacity. How many reports have we heard that many hospitals are in large part near empty or very quiet? We have private hospitals being paid €115 million a month to look after public patients - and they're empty or near empty! We have loads of spare capacity in the system to deal with a surge if it comes. Now, I'm sure that'll be misinterpreted by the lockdown fetishists as me justifying going to the pub saying "to hell if others get sick, plenty of hospital space for them". Again, completely wrong - as we reduce restrictions we need to keep our eye on the ball in case things go awry.

This is now primarily a disease of nursing homes, long term residential facilities and healthcare facilities and this is where we need to focus our attention. There have been considerable failings by the HSE in dealing with these and I honestly believe that any continuation of the lockdown is an attempt to distract attention from this. To be honest, I'm not quite ready to raise the pitchforks for Holohan yet - I'm sure he and his colleagues did what they thought was best and it's not as if other countries don't have similar problems. The average person did not cause the nursing home outbreaks. We've done what we were asked to do and we've done it well, bringing the virus pretty much to its knees in the community at large. Yet if I want to pop my kids in the car and bring them to the woods for a ramble while maintaining social distancing I'll be turned around by the Gardai if stopped (and there has been a continual checkpoint on the only access to/from my area since Easter) - yet Travellers are allowed break the rules with impunity and with the connivance of Official Ireland?

It's time to start relaxing the restrictions.

FWIW I'm a microbiologist and have significant responsibility for infection control (incl Covid-19) in a large organisation which includes healthcare settings.

That pretty much sums up my own opinion.

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 04:35PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I was convinced I had read this somewhere else, or maybe in the order of 800, but cannot find where it was.. Any ideas?

Agree with your post. The 2km thing I actually understand, it keeps people close to home and 'bubbles' communities in some cases. Works well in rural areas perhaps but isn't a good nationwide-rule. It will also bubble lots of apartment dwellers into a busy circle. The theory is probably to stop crowding as seen in Parks, mountains, trails, etc. but in reality they jsut need to bang on about keeping distance.

was 800 at one stage alright but no doubt they have kept numbers increasing

"He said baseline ICU capacity across Ireland was 312 beds, but that number was set to rise to 812 under surge planning. He said the plans depended on training up staff and securing more ventilators."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/coronavirus-patients-could-be-moved-out-of-dublin-if-hospital-capacity-exceeded-993035.html

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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