Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

JimmyVik · 30-04-2020 10:22am

Hubertj wrote: »

i would take the CSO statistics over a 3 year old journal article. in addition, if you bothered looking into it you will find there are nowhere near than number of vcant properties. it was addressed on another thread few weeks ago.

I recently found out that I am living in a vacant property

Hubertj · 30-04-2020 10:29am

Zenify wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/hundreds-plush-properties-laying-vacant-17800453.amp

"The cost to rent one of the luxury units is between €3,850 and €5,500 and the apartments have been available since 2018"

whats your point? a few luxury over priced apartments will solve the housing crisis? Cop yourself on.

Zenify · 30-04-2020 10:36am

Hubertj wrote: »

whats your point? a few luxury over priced apartments will solve the housing crisis? Cop yourself on.

My point, to spell it out for you. There is a lack of housing, a major one. But if people cant afford the few houses that are there, prices will drop. If houses weren't even achieving certain prices before Covid-19 they certainly wont after wage cuts and high unemployment. You seem to only like facts that agree with you. You should open your mind up a little.

Ray Palmer · 30-04-2020 11:44am

Zenify wrote: »

My point, to spell it out for you. There is a lack of housing, a major one. But if people cant afford the few houses that are there, prices will drop. If houses weren't even achieving certain prices before Covid-19 they certainly wont after wage cuts and high unemployment. You seem to only like facts that agree with you. You should open your mind up a little.

Simply isn't how supply and demand works. You are also ignoring the rent allowance system. If there is a shortage of supply but still high demand prices go up. You are assuming everybody becomes unemployed and will get a wage cut. I can assure you that certain wages are going up right now as there is a lack of certain workers and they can't fill the roles or get foreign workers in. I have had job offers paying 50% more than I currently earn. They barely want to interview people and are offering jobs based on CVs.

There will be a dividing line for those with income but as there isn't enough property to rent those with jobs can keep renting. Those without will have to figure something out because landlords are not social welfare. The government will have to figure out something or rent allowance bills will sky rocket.

I will happily let my tenants leave and have no worries about new tenants. I actually want them to leave in one property.

30-04-2020 12:28pm

Zenify wrote: »

My point, to spell it out for you. There is a lack of housing, a major one. But if people cant afford the few houses that are there, prices will drop. If houses weren't even achieving certain prices before Covid-19 they certainly wont after wage cuts and high unemployment. You seem to only like facts that agree with you. You should open your mind up a little.

I linked to a segment by the business editor on the Last Word a couple of weeks ago where he spoke about high price rental properties. One in particular in the IFSC which was only 50% occupied at a time when demand was at its highest. The owners would prefer to have an empty apartment than rent it for a lower price, knowing that they would be locked in indefinitely by rent cap.

Also, a lot of developments are forward financed based on achieving a minimum rental rate, so they will wait this out. The demand will be there because virtually all building has stopped, the primary variable now will be people’s ability to afford rents. That in turn depends on how well and how quickly the economy recovers when businesses start opening again.

This is not like the last recession where there was an abundance of property, mass emigration and unemployment. There is not enough property, no emigration and up to a couple of weeks ago, full employment. Time will tell how the changing economic and social landscape will change the rental industry.

Claw Hammer · 30-04-2020 12:33pm

Dav010 wrote: »

I

This is not like the last recession where there was an abundance of property, mass emigration and unemployment. There is not enough property, no emigration and up to a couple of weeks ago, full employment. Time will tell how the changing economic and social landscape will change the rental industry.

There may be no emigration, but there will also be very little immigration. The likelihood now is that there will be very few foreign students coming to Ireland this autumn. There will also be far fewer staff working in hotels pubs and restaurants this autumn. At that the fact that there will be fewer tourists the likelihood is that the autumn will see substantial changes in the rental market.

30-04-2020 12:44pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There may be no emigration, but there will also be very little immigration. The likelihood now is that there will be very few foreign students coming to Ireland this autumn. There will also be far fewer staff working in hotels pubs and restaurants this autumn. At that the fact that there will be fewer tourists the likelihood is that the autumn will see substantial changes in the rental market.

Agreed, there is now even more incentive for small landlords to exit the market if possible.

Tazz T · 30-04-2020 1:43pm

Problem with 90% of these vacant properties is that they're owned by cuckoo funds (now the biggest landlords in the state). Most aren't bothered whether they're rented out or remain vacant - they're more interested in capital growth. If it gets rented out at these inflated rates, it's a bonus.

The same applies to commercial properties in these same estates which remain empty eternally due to above market rents. The rents make them financially unviable as business premises.

It will be interesting to see what happens when these investment funds realise the market has peaked and property valuations in general start collapsing. My guess is they'll withdraw and look elsewhere, causing a complete crash in all sectors.

Graham · 30-04-2020 3:53pm

Tazz T wrote: »

Problem with 90% of these vacant properties is that they're owned by cuckoo funds

I don't think that's anywhere near accurate. Would be interested in seeing where you got that figure from.

30-04-2020 5:33pm

Tazz T wrote: »

Problem with 90% of these vacant properties is that they're owned by cuckoo funds (now the biggest landlords in the state). Most aren't bothered whether they're rented out or remain vacant - they're more interested in capital growth. If it gets rented out at these inflated rates, it's a bonus.

The same applies to commercial properties in these same estates which remain empty eternally due to above market rents. The rents make them financially unviable as business premises.

It will be interesting to see what happens when these investment funds realise the market has peaked and property valuations in general start collapsing. My guess is they'll withdraw and look elsewhere, causing a complete crash in all sectors.

Not sure where you get 90% from, but does strengthen the argument for a vacant property tax.

Ozark707 · 30-04-2020 5:49pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Not sure where you get 90% from, but does strengthen the argument for a vacant property tax.

The REITs used to claim 99% occupancy so would also like to know where the 90% figure came from.

Hubertj · 30-04-2020 6:14pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

The REITs used to claim 99% occupancy so would also like to know where the 90% figure came from.

He pulled the number from where the sun doesn’t shine. People like making sensational claims about REITs and other institutional landlords as it sounds great.

Brussels Sprout · 30-04-2020 6:20pm

Hubertj wrote: »

He pulled the number from where the sun doesn’t shine. People like making sensational claims about REITs and other institutional landlords as it sounds great.

The claim that they don't care whether the properties are occupied or not was another red flag

Ozark707 · 30-04-2020 7:05pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The claim that they don't care whether the properties are occupied or not was another red flag

I suspect if void periods increased markedly then REITs would be the first to head for the exits.

Assetbacked · 30-04-2020 11:17pm

www.daft.ie/22009334

This apartment has been on Daft for 2 months, rent has been dropped €50p/m for at least four to five weeks as well. It works out at €900 per room and, despite being next to Google, Facebook etc., still sits vacant. The properties popping up that look like they are excellent value are disappearing so people are still moving. As such, the rents of up to a few weeks ago already seem no longer achievable.

Sunny Disposition · 01-05-2020 12:01am

I’m telling ye, the good times are over for big city landlords. Mass broadband is turning society on its head, reasons for being in cities for all but young people who like the buzz are evaporating.
Plus property used for office space is going into decline.
Do not invest in Dublin, unless it’s a very reasonable price smack bang in the city centre. Even then be wary.
Time to invest in underpriced small towns. Gap between city and country is about to narrow.

01-05-2020 12:46am

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

I’m telling ye, the good times are over for big city landlords. Mass broadband is turning society on its head, reasons for being in cities for all but young people who like the buzz are evaporating.
Plus property used for office space is going into decline.
Do not invest in Dublin, unless it’s a very reasonable price smack bang in the city centre. Even then be wary.
Time to invest in underpriced small towns. Gap between city and country is about to narrow.

You first, let us know how you get on.

Decentralisation anyone? A new life outside the city.

Hubertj · 01-05-2020 6:26am

Assetbacked wrote: »

www.daft.ie/22009334

This apartment has been on Daft for 2 months, rent has been dropped €50p/m for at least four to five weeks as well. It works out at €900 per room and, despite being next to Google, Facebook etc., still sits vacant. The properties popping up that look like they are excellent value are disappearing so people are still moving. As such, the rents of up to a few weeks ago already seem no longer achievable.

It’s in a great location but the place needs modernisation! That kitchen looks like it’s from the early 90s. Most of the other developments in the area are more modern so perhaps that is what people prefer?

Ozark707 · 01-05-2020 9:02am

Hubertj wrote: »

It’s in a great location but the place needs modernisation! That kitchen looks like it’s from the early 90s. Most of the other developments in the area are more modern so perhaps that is what people prefer?

Yes still seems expensive (relatively) for what is out there right now. As another poster has pointed out once apts come down to a good price they are clearing so there is still life in the rental market. If there is a further relaxation in restrictions then I expect this to accelerate as more will be confident to go to viewings etc.

Ozark707 · 01-05-2020 9:05am

Latest daft figures updated today. As expected volume increased markedly and average rents for 1,2 bed apts are back at levels last seen ~2 years ago.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

Hubertj · 01-05-2020 9:18am

Ozark707 wrote: »

Latest daft figures updated today. As expected volume increased markedly and average rents for 1,2 bed apts are back at levels last seen ~2 years ago.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

Interesting... while there is more available on market I presume the volume being let is down significantly? So this could be somewhat short term once restrictions are lifted? Must be difficult to view and rent somewhere based on photos or a walk through video? I don’t think I could commit to that.

01-05-2020 9:20am

Ozark707 wrote: »

Latest daft figures updated today. As expected volume increased markedly and average rents for 1,2 bed apts are back at levels last seen ~2 years ago.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

How many of those are short term (<6mth)

In Dublin, there were an additional 170 properties to rent in the week after the schools closed, this has slowed to 20 additional properties last week.

LuasSimon · 01-05-2020 10:04am

If as it looks Hotels , restaurants and bars in particular arent going to open for quite a while there will be a lot of foreign workers gone or going to leave Dublin.
That surely is going to create a lot of empty flats and reduce demand considerably in certain sections of Dublins rental market on top of AIR B &Bs not been needed this year

01-05-2020 10:09am

LuasSimon wrote: »

If as it looks Hotels , restaurants and bars in particular arent going to open for quite a while there will be a lot of foreign workers gone or going to leave Dublin.
That surely is going to create a lot of empty flats and reduce demand considerably in certain sections of Dublins rental market on top of AIR B &Bs not been needed this year

Very true, but with falling rental prices, capped rentals and the risk of tenants not paying, short lets with guaranteed payment (Airbnb) will appeal to many. Incidentally, most of my guests, about 90% are Irish (Nth & Sth), with international travel likely to be effected for some time, there is some hope on the horizon.

Hubertj · 01-05-2020 10:21am

LuasSimon wrote: »

If as it looks Hotels , restaurants and bars in particular arent going to open for quite a while there will be a lot of foreign workers gone or going to leave Dublin.
That surely is going to create a lot of empty flats and reduce demand considerably in certain sections of Dublins rental market on top of AIR B &Bs not been needed this year

Where will they go though? World is a sh*t show. How does the Irish welfare system stack up vs others with or without the Covid payment?

Brussels Sprout · 01-05-2020 11:28am

International travel is going to be affected for a long time:

Fear factor
Disposable incomes hit with a global recession
Short-term future of Airlines is uncertain
Travel restrictions in specific countries from and to other countries

There will an uptick in domestic holidays but given that nearly double our population came here in 2017, that won't be enough to make up for the loss of foreigners.

If I owned an Air B'n'B I wouldn't be holding out too much hope of making the returns I was getting on it last year anytime soon. They government may also actually enforce the legislation on short-term letting in the future (although with FG involved I wouldn't hold my breath on that one).

Ozark707 · 01-05-2020 11:44am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There will an uptick in domestic holidays but given that nearly double our population came here in 2017, that won't be enough to make up for the loss of foreigners.

If I owned an Air B'n'B I wouldn't be holding out too much hope of making the returns I was getting on it last year anytime soon. They government may also actually enforce the legislation on short-term letting in the future (although with FG involved I wouldn't hold my breath on that one).

I suspect Airbnb rates are going to have to come down quite a bit as well. If they come down a good bit will it be worth to go through with it? I can understand why LL's went for it while rates were high but that would appear to be unsustainable in the short to medium term.

Ozark707 · 01-05-2020 11:46am

Dav010 wrote: »

How many of those are short term (<6mth)

In Dublin, there were an additional 170 properties to rent in the week after the schools closed, this has slowed to 20 additional properties last week.

I am nearly sure the guy who collates these numbers excludes anything marked as 'Short term'. As many of these short term places are reverting to longer lettings it is probably one of the main reasons the availability numbers are going up so much.

Ozark707 · 01-05-2020 11:50am

Hubertj wrote: »

Interesting... while there is more available on market I presume the volume being let is down significantly? So this could be somewhat short term once restrictions are lifted? Must be difficult to view and rent somewhere based on photos or a walk through video? I don’t think I could commit to that.

I am wondering if there could be a sort of a snowball effect once restrictions are opened, in that if I was say paying 2.5k previously I can now get similar for a lot cheaper. Then there is a clear incentive to (a) move to the cheaper place or (b) ring my LL and lay the cards on the table (i.e. drop your price substantially or I move).

If (a) happens then that in itself will lead to more places being advertised for the vacant places they leave behind. Good times for letting agents possibly

Hubertj · 01-05-2020 12:00pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I am wondering if there could be a sort of a snowball effect once restrictions are opened, in that if I was say paying 2.5k previously I can now get similar for a lot cheaper. Then there is a clear incentive to (a) move to the cheaper place or (b) ring my LL and lay the cards on the table (i.e. drop your price substantially or I move).

If (a) happens then that in itself will lead to more places being advertised for the vacant places they leave behind. Good times for letting agents possibly

good point especially at rents that high. Aren't there longer notice periods depending on how long a tenant has been in a property? I presume if you vacate before end of notice period you would forfeit some or all of deposit etc?

Assetbacked · 01-05-2020 12:09pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I am wondering if there could be a sort of a snowball effect once restrictions are opened, in that if I was say paying 2.5k previously I can now get similar for a lot cheaper. Then there is a clear incentive to (a) move to the cheaper place or (b) ring my LL and lay the cards on the table (i.e. drop your price substantially or I move).

If (a) happens then that in itself will lead to more places being advertised for the vacant places they leave behind. Good times for letting agents possibly

We pay a little over €2k rent for our 2 bed place. Great location in Booterstown, the place was renovated and furnished with designer furniture by the landlord a couple years ago so is very comfortable and somehwere we're proud to come home to. We have a good relationship with the landlord, who actually lives abroad, so are extremely happy where we are.

That being said, while I am confident the price we pay represents one of the best value rentals I have seen on Daft for the quality and location, we also are able to save a healthy amount each month, but having looked at what is out there on Daft the past few weeks, we will look to reduce our budget to max 1800 when the 12 months of our lease are up.

These are some nice places on Daft from a very quick search, in great locations which we would happily rent if it meant an extra €250 to €600 per month in our pockets!

www.daft.ie/22025531
www.daft.ie/22025934
www.daft.ie/22025566

01-05-2020 12:29pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I suspect Airbnb rates are going to have to come down quite a bit as well. If they come down a good bit will it be worth to go through with it? I can understand why LL's went for it while rates were high but that would appear to be unsustainable in the short to medium term.

I’m not so sure. Airbnb’s will open a lot quicker than hotels, won’t have social distancing concerns etc on top of the established benefits over hotels. I have my rates the same as last year and am still getting strong bookings for last quarter of this year. This year overall will be bad, but as most of my bookings are domestic, I’m confident about next year when this years events are rescheduled and more people stay in Ireland.

01-05-2020 12:33pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I am nearly sure the guy who collates these numbers excludes anything marked as 'Short term'. As many of these short term places are reverting to longer lettings it is probably one of the main reasons the availability numbers are going up so much.

There is another thread where a poster is looking for apartment in Dublin and has been told by many EAs/LLs that max lease is 5 months. In other words, short term let before Part4 rights kick in so that property can be relet to students or go back to short let platforms.

MadYaker · 01-05-2020 12:39pm

With working from home becoming the norm now for office jobs at least surely a lot of people paying big rents like 2k a month for a 2 bed will realise that this a colossal waste of money and move out of dublin to somewhere cheaper? I'm renting a 3 bed house to myself for half of that.

DubCount · 01-05-2020 1:58pm

MadYaker wrote: »

With working from home becoming the norm now for office jobs at least surely a lot of people paying big rents like 2k a month for a 2 bed will realise that this a colossal waste of money and move out of dublin to somewhere cheaper? I'm renting a 3 bed house to myself for half of that.

For the moment, working from home is the norm. Long term, I doubt companies are ready to completely give up on face to face contact.

The reasons people want to rent in Dublin City Centre are not all connected to employment. Young people, with good salaries, want to be near clubs, bars, restaurants, gyms etc.. Not everyone wants to live in rural Ireland miles from the nearest bit of social life.

JimmyVik · 01-05-2020 2:20pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I am nearly sure the guy who collates these numbers excludes anything marked as 'Short term'. As many of these short term places are reverting to longer lettings it is probably one of the main reasons the availability numbers are going up so much.

I was looking over the last few weeks.
90% of the ones who eventually got back to me were only offering short term rentals. Drove me mad. If it had been in the advertisements I wouldnt have bothered at all.

JimmyVik · 01-05-2020 2:23pm

Dav010 wrote: »

There is another thread where a poster is looking for apartment in Dublin and has been told by many EAs/LLs that max lease is 5 months. In other words, short term let before Part4 rights kick in so that property can be relet to students or go back to short let platforms.

That was probably me.
So annoying I just gave up and i'll stay where I am.

Blut2 · 01-05-2020 5:02pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Where will they go though? World is a sh*t show. How does the Irish welfare system stack up vs others with or without the Covid payment?

They'll go back home. Better to be unemployed and living in the family house in Poland or Brazil or wherever else than unemployed in Dublin, paying 700euro a month rent plus sky high living costs. A lot of them either aren't eligible for welfare here, or are under 25 so only at much reduced rates. And even if they can get full welfare here 200euro a week would barely cover rent, nevermind living.

The people thinking the rental market is going to recover within a few months are nuts. The current projection for unemployment this year in Ireland is 23% - and thats probably optimistic, its getting worse with every week's new prediction.

And thats also not accounting for the "temporarily" unemployed people on the special covid payment, if you include them unemployment is currently approaching 45%. Theres no way all of those people are going to go straight back into work in June, a huge chunk of them are retail/hospitality/tourism workers who'll be going onto the normal dole for a long time to come.

We're going to be in a scenario with 30%+ unemployment, with a huge chunk of that concentrated in hospitality/tourism/retail sectors. ie sectors that predominantly are staffed by the young people who're renters.

Muahahaha · 01-05-2020 6:15pm

MadYaker wrote: »

With working from home becoming the norm now for office jobs at least surely a lot of people paying big rents like 2k a month for a 2 bed will realise that this a colossal waste of money and move out of dublin to somewhere cheaper? I'm renting a 3 bed house to myself for half of that.

Yeah I think WFH is going to fundamentally change the working landscape. Not saying that everyone will get it but even if only 20% of workers who can WFH end up doing so then that has knock on effects on where they live and on rental prices. People are tired of 3 hour daily commutes and the new WFH regime operating right now has solidified that for them, for those paying massive rents they might reconsider a move out of the city and WFH so they can save to buy their own house someday. The genie is out of the bottle and it cant be put back in. Employers who dont allow WFH will find their employees gravitate to companies that do allow it.

Blut2 wrote: »

They'll go back home. Better to be unemployed and living in the family house in Poland or Brazil or wherever else than unemployed in Dublin

We're going to be in a scenario with 30%+ unemployment, with a huge chunk of that concentrated in hospitality/tourism/retail sectors. ie sectors that predominantly are staffed by the young people who're renters.

Yeah I think the renters from hospitality and language student sectors have little choice now but head to whereever home and a free bed is. That too has knock on effects on the price of rent.

Sunny Disposition · 01-05-2020 7:09pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Yeah I think WFH is going to fundamentally change the working landscape. Not saying that everyone will get it but even if only 20% of workers who can WFH end up doing so then that has knock on effects on where they live and on rental prices. People are tired of 3 hour daily commutes and the new WFH regime operating right now has solidified that for them, for those paying massive rents they might reconsider a move out of the city and WFH so they can save to buy their own house someday. The genie is out of the bottle and it cant be put back in. Employers who dont allow WFH will find their employees gravitate to companies that do allow it.

Yeah I think the renters from hospitality and language student sectors have little choice now but head to whereever home and a free bed is. That too has knock on effects on the price of rent.

This is it, if 20% are working from home even three days a week then paying Dublin rents won’t make sense for a large enough amount of people to smash the market.
People who really want city centre type living will still want to live there of course, but many people who would have moved to base themselves in Dublin or within 40 miles of it in previous generations won’t be coming.
The property market, not just in Dublin or even Ireland but all over the developed world, is going into a new phase. The era of almost complete dominance of big cities in the jobs market has already ended.
It’s not only the residential market, commercial property prices are going to fall hugely. There’s no great need for most of the shops that are currently closed to reopen. It can all be done for far less expense online. Loads of offices will stay shut too, why would you pay thousands a week if your workers can do everything at home?
I got out of Dublin property just before this, very lucky, the peak is passed and the drop could be very hard in the short term, but the long term as in the next 20 years, is far worse.
It might make sense for someone to buy in Dublin if they are happy to live in the house long term. But taking on a buy to let would be crazy.

Hubertj · 01-05-2020 7:25pm

Blut2 wrote: »

They'll go back home. Better to be unemployed and living in the family house in Poland or Brazil or wherever else than unemployed in Dublin, paying 700euro a month rent plus sky high living costs. A lot of them either aren't eligible for welfare here, or are under 25 so only at much reduced rates. And even if they can get full welfare here 200euro a week would barely cover rent, nevermind living.

The people thinking the rental market is going to recover within a few months are nuts. The current projection for unemployment this year in Ireland is 23% - and thats probably optimistic, its getting worse with every week's new prediction.

And thats also not accounting for the "temporarily" unemployed people on the special covid payment, if you include them unemployment is currently approaching 45%. Theres no way all of those people are going to go straight back into work in June, a huge chunk of them are retail/hospitality/tourism workers who'll be going onto the normal dole for a long time to come.

We're going to be in a scenario with 30%+ unemployment, with a huge chunk of that concentrated in hospitality/tourism/retail sectors. ie sectors that predominantly are staffed by the young people who're renters.

Where are you getting those figures from?

Blut2 · 01-05-2020 8:29pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Where are you getting those figures from?

PASCHAL DONOHOE HAS described the predicted unemployment rate of 22% as “horrific” but said Ireland can and will rebuild its economy. -- https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-unemployment-covid19-5080700-Apr2020/

591,000 people are now receiving the Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment, with around 21,000 receiving it for the first time this week.
That is on top of around 212,000 eligible for standard "non-Covid" Jobseekers benefit of €203 per week, and 337,400 receiving income support through the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme. --
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0427/1135061-covid-pandemic-payments-unemployment-benefits/

For reference there were 2.4 million workers in Ireland at the start of 2020.

Of those 2.4 million take away the 591k, 212k and 337k from the above - a total of 1.1 million. Thats about 45% of the overall working population currently in receipt of a state payment.

Of those 1.3 million people still working also bear in mind 350,000 are public servants. So we're actually down to about 1 million adult private sector workers now, whos taxes are now supporting the other 4 million people in Ireland.

I'm no "taxes are theft" right-winger, but the maths on those figures are going to get really ugly, really fast.

Hubertj · 01-05-2020 9:24pm

Blut2 wrote: »

PASCHAL DONOHOE HAS described the predicted unemployment rate of 22% as “horrific” but said Ireland can and will rebuild its economy. -- https://www.thejournal.ie/paschal-donohoe-unemployment-covid19-5080700-Apr2020/

591,000 people are now receiving the Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment, with around 21,000 receiving it for the first time this week.
That is on top of around 212,000 eligible for standard "non-Covid" Jobseekers benefit of €203 per week, and 337,400 receiving income support through the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme. --
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0427/1135061-covid-pandemic-payments-unemployment-benefits/

For reference there were 2.4 million workers in Ireland at the start of 2020.

Of those 2.4 million take away the 591k, 212k and 337k from the above - a total of 1.1 million. Thats about 45% of the overall working population currently in receipt of a state payment.

Of those 1.3 million people still working also bear in mind 350,000 are public servants. So we're actually down to about 1 million adult private sector workers now, whos taxes are now supporting the other 4 million people in Ireland.

I'm no "taxes are theft" right-winger, but the maths on those figures are going to get really ugly, really fast.

Thank you, awful reading..... but what % will be back to work by year end? I’m more concerned about H2 2021 looks like. Next 12 months will be a sh*t show.

Muahahaha · 01-05-2020 9:30pm

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

This is it, if 20% are working from home even three days a week then paying Dublin rents won’t make sense for a large enough amount of people to smash the market.

Yeah I think the WFH thing is going to be a significant factor. Not every employer will allow it but you only need 20 or 30% of them to allow it and then it has knock on effects elsewhere- roads will be quieter and rents will drop as some people realise that WFH and living outside the city will save them a fortune. It'll probably be a mixed bag, people in their 20s might still want the city living of pubs and clubs on their doorstep but those in their 30s and 40s have different priorities.

I got out of Dublin property just before this, very lucky, the peak is passed and the drop could be very hard in the short term, but the long term as in the next 20 years, is far worse.
.

Thats really excellent timing Sunny, prices definitely had peaked and we were seeing the beginnings of a correction. The next two or three years at least are going to be a rocky road for property. Did your property investment qualify for the CGT exemption? Happy days if so, theres been great capital appreciation since the last crash and if you can exit without paying any CGT then all the better

Blut2 wrote: »

Of those 1.3 million people still working also bear in mind 350,000 are public servants. So we're actually down to about 1 million adult private sector workers now, whos taxes are now supporting the other 4 million people in Ireland.

I'm no "taxes are theft" right-winger, but the maths on those figures are going to get really ugly, really fast.

Its really frightening when it is put in those terms but thats the new reality. I dont think it has sunk in for a lot of people yet how bad this will get but its going to be a mess. Plus in the last crash the Govt had the pressure release valve of 250,000 people emigrating, this time out people arent going anywhere as other countries face the same unemployment bloodbath that we do.

I said it on another thread, property prices correlate to unemployment. You just cant have a scenario where there is 22% unemployment and property does not fall in price, one follows the other. The only silver lining should be that it wont fall like 2008 to the order of 50-80%. I'd estimate about a 20% correction until we can get back to full employment which is some time off.

Blut2 · 01-05-2020 11:39pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

I said it on another thread, property prices correlate to unemployment. You just cant have a scenario where there is 22% unemployment and property does not fall in price, one follows the other. The only silver lining should be that it wont fall like 2008 to the order of 50-80%. I'd estimate about a 20% correction until we can get back to full employment which is some time off.

I'm not sure I'd be that optimistic. In the last crisis the peak unemployment in the absolute worst month was 16%. And that 16% was a lot more evenly spread across all demographics - young apprentice construction workers still living with their parents all the way through to people in their 50s and 60s at the tail end of their careers.

If this crisis ends up with unemployment of twice that, and heavily concentrated on workers in the key rental demographic in their 20s and 30s in the retail/hospitality/tourism industries, its going to hit rents a lot harder.

And then on top of that we have the tourism industry being hit much much harder this time around - so all those airbnbs flooding the market, in a way that didn't happen after 2008.

Its not a good combination for the rental market, at all. The only thing in favour of things being less bad now is how much undersupply of properties there were up to February 2020 - but we'll see how much that counts for in a few months time.

Muahahaha · 02-05-2020 12:29am

yeah its going to be some hit. It all depends how quickly people can get back to work but even then venues will be operating at 50% capacity so there isnt going to be a sudden light switch moment and suddenly everything is okay again. Getting back to anything near full employment is going to take at least two years IMO and thats all provided there isnt another outbreak and a vaccine arrives.

900 jobs gone in Aer Lingus today and Ryanair will be doing even more layoffs. That alone is going to make a sizeable dent in rents in Swords, 900 people could add up to 450 2 bed apartments rented in the Swords area. If you're Polish cabin crew and laid off and there are no airlines that are hiring then what are they to do? They certainly cant afford to hang around Dublin unemployed and paying high rents when theres a free bed back at home.

Sunny Disposition · 02-05-2020 7:43am

Muahahaha wrote: »

Yeah I think the WFH thing is going to be a significant factor. Not every employer will allow it but you only need 20 or 30% of them to allow it and then it has knock on effects elsewhere- roads will be quieter and rents will drop as some people realise that WFH and living outside the city will save them a fortune. It'll probably be a mixed bag, people in their 20s might still want the city living of pubs and clubs on their doorstep but those in their 30s and 40s have different priorities.

Thats really excellent timing Sunny, prices definitely had peaked and we were seeing the beginnings of a correction. The next two or three years at least are going to be a rocky road for property. Did your property investment qualify for the CGT exemption? Happy days if so, theres been great capital appreciation since the last crash and if you can exit without paying any CGT then all the better

Its really frightening when it is put in those terms but thats the new reality. I dont think it has sunk in for a lot of people yet how bad this will get but its going to be a mess. Plus in the last crash the Govt had the pressure release valve of 250,000 people emigrating, this time out people arent going anywhere as other countries face the same unemployment bloodbath that we do.

I said it on another thread, property prices correlate to unemployment. You just cant have a scenario where there is 22% unemployment and property does not fall in price, one follows the other. The only silver lining should be that it wont fall like 2008 to the order of 50-80%. I'd estimate about a 20% correction until we can get back to full employment which is some time off.

Didn’t qualify for an exemption, but certainly not complaining, was very lucky with the whole thing!
Yeah, I doubt think this recession will be as bad as the last one, more of a short and very sharp shock, compared to the death by a 1000 cuts we got that time! But the property market on Dublin was out of control, hasn’t been functional for over 20 years. Long term changes coming now which are going to benefit the ordinary people rather than investors, like myself. It is for the best.

James 007 · 02-05-2020 10:59am

Muahahaha wrote: »

............900 jobs gone in Aer Lingus today and Ryanair will be doing even more layoffs. That alone is going to make a sizeable dent in rents in Swords, 900 people could add up to 450 2 bed apartments rented in the Swords area. If you're Polish cabin crew and laid off and there are no airlines that are hiring then what are they to do? They certainly cant afford to hang around Dublin unemployed and paying high rents when theres a free bed back at home.

Why would they leave in the first place when there is a free apartment here for them for the next 18 months if they stop paying the rent.:rolleyes:

Zenify · 02-05-2020 11:25am

James 007 wrote: »

Why would they leave in the first place when there is a free apartment here for them for the next 18 months if they stop paying the rent.:rolleyes:

I wonder how many landlords this is happening too? Anyone got any idea of figures or know any stories?

02-05-2020 11:49am

Zenify wrote: »

I wonder how many landlords this is happening too? Anyone got any idea of figures or know any stories?

The RTB report at the end of the year will tell the story.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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