Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

polaco

=The_Conductor
In the context of the thousands of foreign employees of MNCs who went home in March/April
.

Could tell me where did you find such information? I am not saying this not true but I am just curious if you have any links.

The_Conductor

polaco wrote: »

Could tell me where did you find such information? I am not saying this not true but I am just curious if you have any links.

RTE interviewed DAA representatives back at the end of April/beginning of May- discussing the volume of passengers travelling through Dublin airport (at that time) and what their destinations were. I'm sure there must be a podcast somewhere, I'll have a little hunt and see if I can find a link..........

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

In a city with the population of Dublin (is it 1.4M ish?) 2.5k available units doesn't sound like anywhere near enough for a functioning market.

Nope- it most certainly doesn't. Just because its an increase from 1000-1500 units- doesn't mean its anything other than a statistical blip. What I'd like to know if what is going to happen as soon as landlords start advertising vacant property again (I am guessing there are a sizable number of vacant units out there that landlords didn't even both trying to let).

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Nope- it most certainly doesn't. Just because its an increase from 1000-1500 units- doesn't mean its anything other than a statistical blip. What I'd like to know if what is going to happen as soon as landlords start advertising vacant property again (I am guessing there are a sizable number of vacant units out there that landlords didn't even both trying to let).

agreed, as you said there are employees of MNCs who will start to come back over the next couple of months. Added to that INIS had not been processing Visas so immigrants have been unable to relocate (even if they could get flights) plus it looks like there will be some on campus learning next semester.

Also factor in the newly unemployed..

frw5

snowgal wrote: »

frw5 wrote: »

Does anyone know what is with the rent freeze for July? I was due an increase in April which got delayed for May and June, but can't believe there is no news on July.

I was wondering this too and trying find info on it but havent found anything yet.....

It appears to me it comes down to agreement with landlord.
Very irresponsible from the government to come to 10th of June and still not address this.

diceyreilly

Moved out of my place last weekend.

Rent was just increased before Christmas, and they stuck another €150 on the price on daft

Smouse156

diceyreilly wrote: »

Moved out of my place last weekend.

Rent was just increased before Christmas, and they stuck another €150 on the price on daft

Was it underpriced or are they just delusional?

diceyreilly

Smouse156 wrote: »

Was it underpriced or are they just delusional?

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

Ozark707

diceyreilly wrote: »

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

If it is in a RPZ the max would be 4%

PommieBast

diceyreilly wrote: »

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

Was it you or the landlord who gave notice?

Smouse156

Getting back to rents, are any of the REITs giving reductions on the asking prices? Starting a new job and will have to move to Dublin in August/September. Does anyone have any concrete examples of realised reductions from the big private landlords on asking prices for new rentals? They have yet to drop prices it seems

JimmyVik

Smouse156 wrote: »

Getting back to rents, are any of the REITs giving reductions on the asking prices? Starting a new job and will have to move to Dublin in August/September. Does anyone have any concrete examples of realised reductions from the big private landlords on asking prices for new rentals? They have yet to drop prices it seems

See if you can get one of those student accommodation units and wait for a while to see how it pans out.
Or there are lots of short term lets available. Almost all of them that I contacted a couple of months ago were short term but didnt say it in the advert.
If that suited you you could rent one for 3 or 4 months and then see if there were cheaper rents elsewhere by that time.

JimmyVik

Ozark707 wrote: »

If it is in a RPZ the max would be 4%

Depends when the last rent review was.

diceyreilly

JimmyVik wrote: »

Depends when the last rent review was.

Was 8 months ago.

mrslancaster

diceyreilly wrote: »

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

Can anyone explain how does it work in an RPZ when a new tenant moves in and the last increase was say 9 months earlier? Does the previous rent stay the same for 3 months & then the 4% review kicks in?

brisan

Mr.S wrote: »

Short term, yes they’ll probably drop due to the non-existent demand.

Long term, after all this goes back to normal - we’re still going to have a supply issue and rent prices will climb again.

Let’s assume life goes back to normal in September, why would rent prices continue to drop massively? The “bounce back” would presumably be quick and strong.

Not a hope in hell

brisan

Dav010 wrote: »

Written tenancy agreements are not a requirement. So if the agreement is verbal, or only 6 months written tenancy is offered, then it’ll be a take it or leave it situation.

Personally, the reasons for me choosing to leave the rental market as tenants move out hasn’t changed. I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

brisan

brisan wrote: »

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

Why not? Airbnb is operating again in many places. I am staying in one in the UK in three weeks at the start of July. I’d rather stay in a private Airbnb house or flat than a multi occupancy hotel.

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

i disagree, ive booked an air bnb for galway in september.
my friends are coming over from uk next month and have booked an AirBnB up the road.
Why do you think it wont happen?

brisan

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Have you seen some of the tenants going around? why would a landlord have to rent a property for some person to turn it into s**t, the landlord is then left with the cost to get rid of them and also to clean up the mess....

If every tenant was a good tenant then yes you could say it is indefensible, but in reality Ireland has a lot of crappy tenants

And a lot of crappy landlords

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

i disagree, ive booked an air bnb for galway in september.
my friends are coming over from uk next month and have booked an AirBnB up the road.
Why do you think it wont happen?

Are they going to go into quarantine for two weeks ,or are they going to disregard the law

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

i disagree, ive booked an air bnb for galway in september.
my friends are coming over from uk next month and have booked an AirBnB up the road.
Why do you think it wont happen?

Are they going to go into quarantine for 2 weeks or are they going to disregard the law

brisan

zweton wrote: »

Out of curiosity has anyone's landlord brought down your monthly rent? E.g your now on covid payment and were paying too much in the first instance.

There are 2 chances of a landlord voluntarily reducing rent

brisan

brisan wrote: »

Are they going to go into quarantine for two weeks ,or are they going to disregard the law

We are not going to have quarantine forever. It’ll be gone in July or August as EU borders come down and quarantine free travel starts

Problem for those relying on Airbnb income for the next year or so will be resurgences of the virus and temporary lockdowns around the place. That said, I would sooner do airbnb, even if income is interrupted, than have a bad tenant get to 6 months and claim part 4

TheSheriff

I had posted earlier in the thread that we are leaving our apartment at the end of the month.

Landlord but it up on a Friday and took it down on the Sunday; inundated with emails.

Anyway, we had a couple over to view it this evening (they were the 1st ones) as we said we didn't want a mass of people walking through the apartment it would be appointment viewings only... to allow us to control them touching things etc.

First couple took it.

Landlord told us they got > 150 emails over a 1.5 day period.

Still amazed this level of demand exists in the current circumstances... its a fairly good location, near the DART, reasonably priced (<1500e/1 bed) etc. but for all the doom and gloom around I thought it would be tumbleweed for a few months at least.

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

Having to cover the mortgage alone on an investment property for a year or so would be par for the course (albeit this is an extreme event) but it is likely to only be until things can start to get back to normal into Q1 2020 (the relevance of Q1 2020 being the start of semester two in colleges and the start of the tourist season in spring). Not a long period in the grand scheme of things.

Optimistic statement that
Until a vaccine comes along things will not get back to normal

brisan

Deleted User wrote: »

We are not going to have quarantine forever. It’ll be gone in July or August as EU borders come down and quarantine free travel starts

Problem for those relying on Airbnb income for the next year or so will be resurgences of the virus and temporary lockdowns around the place. That said, I would sooner do airbnb, even if income is interrupted, than have a bad tenant get to 6 months and claim part 4

Can you quote an official source for this
i would be very interested in reading it

brisan

mrslancaster wrote: »

Can anyone explain how does it work in an RPZ when a new tenant moves in and the last increase was say 9 months earlier? Does the previous rent stay the same for 3 months & then the 4% review kicks in?

The rent should stay the same for 3 months and then the review kicks in
The vast majority of landlords ignore this rule
You could always report the landlord

PommieBast

TheSheriff wrote: »

Still amazed this level of demand exists in the current circumstances... its a fairly good location, near the DART, reasonably priced (<1500e/1 bed) etc. but for all the doom and gloom around I thought it would be tumbleweed for a few months at least.

In central-ish Dublin €1500 is basically the bottom of the market for a decent (>35sqm, not room/studio) flat. Landlords of places less than that have tended to sell up.

brisan

brisan wrote: »

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

My bookings say otherwise.

brisan

A lot of people are of the opinion that things are going back to normal in the near future
We are going to have to live with a NEW NORMAL until a vaccine is found
The Government have admitted that the foreign tourist season is wiped out
Restaurant associations have said 90% of restaurants will not open under new regulations
Retail shops will lay of over 50% of staff (supermarkets excepted ) while social distancing rules apply
Live music venues are wiped out
Theatres are wiped out
Hotels will struggle to survive
Pubs will lay off staff
My local has 6 full time barmen and 4 part time
Part timers are already gone and according to one barman 2 more full time barmen could go
We have not seen one tenth of the effects of covid
The Government is propping up the economy and when they stop doing that the full realisation will hit
Airlines will lay off people in their thousands
Foreign workers in the hospitality industry will not afford dublin rents on 205 euro a week dole payments and will return home
We are only staring to sail into uncharted waters
Dan O Brien of the Independent said the recession that will follow has the potential to make 2008 seem like a blip

brisan

brisan wrote: »

A lot of people are of the opinion that things are going back to normal in the near future
We are going to have to live with a NEW NORMAL until a vaccine is found
The Government have admitted that the foreign tourist season is wiped out
Restaurant associations have said 90% of restaurants will not open under new regulations
Retail shops will lay of over 50% of staff (supermarkets excepted ) while social distancing rules apply
Live music venues are wiped out
Theatres are wiped out
Hotels will struggle to survive
Pubs will lay off staff
My local has 6 full time barmen and 4 part time
Part timers are already gone and according to one barman 2 more full time barmen could go
We have not seen one tenth of the effects of covid
The Government is propping up the economy and when they stop doing that the full realisation will hit
Airlines will lay off people in their thousands
Foreign workers in the hospitality industry will not afford dublin rents on 205 euro a week dole payments and will return home
We are only staring to sail into uncharted waters
Dan O Brien of the Independent said the recession that will follow has the potential to make 2008 seem like a blip

And advice/regulations will change, a couple of weeks ago bars and hairdressers weren’t going to open until end of July or August, now there are discussions about reducing social distancing in accordance with WHO advice. It’s unlikely we will have tourists, but the bookings I am getting through Airbnb are Irish people who had planned to go abroad but are now holidaying in Ireland.

Chill out a bit, community spread is at almost zero levels, shops have opened, people are going back to work. No it isn’t like it was in February, but there is more cause for optimism than there was a month ago.

TheSheriff

brisan wrote: »

A lot of people are of the opinion that things are going back to normal in the near future
We are going to have to live with a NEW NORMAL until a vaccine is found
The Government have admitted that the foreign tourist season is wiped out
Restaurant associations have said 90% of restaurants will not open under new regulations
Retail shops will lay of over 50% of staff (supermarkets excepted ) while social distancing rules apply
Live music venues are wiped out
Theatres are wiped out
Hotels will struggle to survive
Pubs will lay off staff
My local has 6 full time barmen and 4 part time
Part timers are already gone and according to one barman 2 more full time barmen could go
We have not seen one tenth of the effects of covid
The Government is propping up the economy and when they stop doing that the full realisation will hit
Airlines will lay off people in their thousands
Foreign workers in the hospitality industry will not afford dublin rents on 205 euro a week dole payments and will return home
We are only staring to sail into uncharted waters
Dan O Brien of the Independent said the recession that will follow has the potential to make 2008 seem like a blip

These are all "will have too"... you are speculating. We all are.

Some people/businesses are making more money during this lockdown.

boars

Lads here is the stone cold truth, you might want to sit down.

There won't ever be a vaccine for the coronavirus.

You cannot vaccinate effectively against something which has several different strains. The last time I read it was about 21. You can bet it will be ten times the number of strains by the end of this year. You can vaccinate against a particular strain of the Coronavirus the same way as you can vaccinate against a particular strain of the flu. It might have some effect, but it depends on what strain becomes the most dominant and it’s not going to immunize the entirely country/world population because the Coronavirus isn't from the same family of viruses as measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc.

There will be an economic hit- but we might not feel it until 4th quarter this year and the property market won’t feel it until as late as this time next year. There is no positive ending here, sorry to sound depressing but this is going to go on for a very long time- at least 2-3 years. In the meantime, the world will continue to hold its breadth over the summer in anticipation of a second wave in the autumn/winter. Sure, they might try open up in the meantime- but it won’t work.

There will be economic fallout- and there won’t be a v-shape recovery. Don't use the current stock market metrics as a gauge- it is broken. Everyone I know thinks they are smart buying stocks right now- even Digiro has a two-week signup waiting list because of demand. America is crazy printing money through quantative easing attempting to prop up the markets as well. Hertz just went 10x after filing for bankruptcy- if that doesn't tell you the market is broken, I don't know what will.

Sit tight and don't spend your money on a new yearly rental contract/ buying a house for at least 12 months if you can. Patience is a virtue in this market. It can remain irrational for a long time

brisan

boars wrote: »

lads here is the stone cold truth, you might want to sit down.

There wont ever be a vaccine for the coronavirus.

You cannot vaccinate effectively against something which has a number of different strains. The last time I heard it was about 21. You can bet it will be 10x the number of strains by the end of the year. You can vaccinate against a particular strain of the Coronavirus the same way as you can vaccinate against a partiuclar strain of the yearly flu. It might have some effect, but its not going to immunize the entirely country/world population because this isn't from the same family of viruses as measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc etc.

There will be an economic hit- but we might not feel it until 4th quarter this year and the property market wont feel it until as late as this time next year. There is no positive ending here, sorry to sound depressing but this is going to go on for a very long time- at least 2-3 years. In the meantime the world will continue to hold its breadth over the summer until autumn and we see whether we start getting a second wave. Sure, they might try open up in the meantime- but it wont work.

There will be economic fallout- and there wont be no v-shape recovery. This is the start of the great depression of our time. Don't look at the stock market as a gauge. It is broken- everyone I know thinks they are smart buying stocks right now- even Digiro has a two week signup waiting list. America is crazy printing money trying to prop up the markets as well. Sit tight and don;t spend you're money on a new rent contract/ buying a house for at least 12 months.

But some lads think its going to be OK once we open up

https://news.bitcoin.com/ecb-recession-europe/


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.w...outputType=amp

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.f...c-19e8b22dad3c

https://www.centralbank.ie/news/arti...0-3-april-2020

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189832.shtml


https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.t...r2020/%3famp=1

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.i...574%3fmode=amp

Who to believe ???
A whole list of experts or some lads on the internet

brisan

boars wrote: »

lads here is the stone cold truth, you might want to sit down.

There wont ever be a vaccine for the coronavirus.

You cannot vaccinate effectively against something which has a number of different strains. The last time I heard it was about 21. You can bet it will be 10x the number of strains by the end of the year. You can vaccinate against a particular strain of the Coronavirus the same way as you can vaccinate against a partiuclar strain of the yearly flu. It might have some effect, but its not going to immunize the entirely country/world population because this isn't from the same family of viruses as measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc etc.

There will be an economic hit- but we might not feel it until 4th quarter this year and the property market wont feel it until as late as this time next year. There is no positive ending here, sorry to sound depressing but this is going to go on for a very long time- at least 2-3 years. In the meantime the world will continue to hold its breadth over the summer until autumn and we see whether we start getting a second wave. Sure, they might try open up in the meantime- but it wont work.

There will be economic fallout- and there wont be no v-shape recovery. Don't look at the stock market as a gauge- it is broken. Everyone I know thinks they are smart buying stocks right now- even Digiro has a two week signup waiting list because of demand. America is crazy printing money trying to prop up the markets as well. Hertz just went 10x after filing for bankruptcy- if that doesn't tell you the market is broken I don't know what will.

Sit tight and don't spend your money on a new yearly rental contract/ buying a house for at least 12 months if you can. Patience is a virtue in this market. It can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

how many retailers have gone bang in the last few weeks ??
Debenhams ,Coast ,Monsoon ,Accesorize.Forever 21
The list will only keep growing

brisan

brisan wrote: »

Can you quote an official source for this
i would be very interested in reading it

No, just common sense. We ain’t going to continue with quarantine when other EU countries have all dropped it for European travel and travel from other low infection places.

TheSheriff

PommieBast wrote: »

In central-ish Dublin €1500 is basically the bottom of the market for a decent (>35sqm, not room/studio) flat. Landlords of places less than that have tended to sell up.

Ah ok, again I'm in my echo chamber. It was snapped up anyway !

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Ah ok, again I'm in my echo chamber. It was snapped up anyway !

The 2k per month apartment in Kilmainham beside mine went in a day. I thought it was overpriced and had a conversation about that with my friends who own it. But it went as soon as was listed, and that was a month ago right in the middle of COVID. It wasn’t even that nice.....north facing and dark interiors

frw5

90 million people per year extra on the planet every year, one entire Germany of surplus, how do you think prices/rent / corporation stock is going to ever go down?

brisan

frw5 wrote: »

90 million people per year extra on the planet every year, one entire Germany of surplus, how do you think prices/rent / corporation stock is going to ever go down?

I wonder how Germany ,Holland .France and the rest of the modern world cope ??

TheSheriff

boars wrote: »

There won't ever be a vaccine for the coronavirus.

You cannot vaccinate effectively against something which has several different strains. The last time I read it was about 21. You can bet it will be ten times the number of strains by the end of this year. You can vaccinate against a particular strain of the Coronavirus the same way as you can vaccinate against a particular strain of the flu. It might have some effect, but it depends on what strain becomes the most dominant and it’s not going to immunize the entirely country/world population because the Coronavirus isn't from the same family of viruses as measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc.

This is incorrect and frankly just scaremongering.

frw5

brisan wrote: »

I wonder how Germany ,Holland .France and the rest of the modern world cope ??

Are they?

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/8/87/House_prices_and_rents_%E2%80%93_EU27_-_Index_levels_%282007_%3D_100%29%2C_2007Q1-2019Q4.png

I do however agree they are coping with the quality of build and supporting infrastructure a lot better. I can understand the supporting infrastructure is lacking in Ireland since there are no road connections to anyone, but quality of build or lack of it is beyond me.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is incorrect and frankly just scaremongering.

Vaccines are developed in response to infectious pathogens, the poster is correct, the virus has mutated, a strain that effects children has been identified and there has been a new outbreak in China of a altered strain from the original in Wuhan. So unless you know something that the Scientists don’t, it is probable that mutated coronavirus could be with us indefinitely.

brisan

Dav010 wrote: »

Vaccines are developed in response to infectious pathogens, the poster is correct, the virus has mutated, a strain that effects children has been identified and there has been a new outbreak in China of a altered strain from the original in Wuhan. So unless you know something that the Scientists don’t, it is probable that mutated coronavirus could be with us indefinitely.

Agreed
The common cold is a coronavirus and no vaccine for that has been developed
Before anyone says the common cold does not kill

https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-changed-after-europeans-killed-indigenous-americans-2019-2?r=US&IR=T

Scuid Mhór

boars wrote: »

Lads here is the stone cold truth, you might want to sit down.

There won't ever be a vaccine for the coronavirus.

You cannot vaccinate effectively against something which has several different strains. The last time I read it was about 21. You can bet it will be ten times the number of strains by the end of this year. You can vaccinate against a particular strain of the Coronavirus the same way as you can vaccinate against a particular strain of the flu. It might have some effect, but it depends on what strain becomes the most dominant and it’s not going to immunize the entirely country/world population because the Coronavirus isn't from the same family of viruses as measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc.

There will be an economic hit- but we might not feel it until 4th quarter this year and the property market won’t feel it until as late as this time next year. There is no positive ending here, sorry to sound depressing but this is going to go on for a very long time- at least 2-3 years. In the meantime, the world will continue to hold its breadth over the summer in anticipation of a second wave in the autumn/winter. Sure, they might try open up in the meantime- but it won’t work.

There will be economic fallout- and there won’t be a v-shape recovery. Don't use the current stock market metrics as a gauge- it is broken. Everyone I know thinks they are smart buying stocks right now- even Digiro has a two-week signup waiting list because of demand. America is crazy printing money through quantative easing attempting to prop up the markets as well. Hertz just went 10x after filing for bankruptcy- if that doesn't tell you the market is broken, I don't know what will.

Sit tight and don't spend your money on a new yearly rental contract/ buying a house for at least 12 months if you can. Patience is a virtue in this market. It can remain irrational for a long time

Please refrain from spreading misinformation and/or discussing matters you - clearly - have no understanding of whatsoever.

TheSheriff

Dav010 wrote: »

Vaccines are developed in response to infectious pathogens, the poster is correct, the virus has mutated, a strain that effects children has been identified and there has been a new outbreak in China of a altered strain from the original in Wuhan. So unless you know something that the Scientists don’t, it is probable that mutated coronavirus could be with us indefinitely.

Hello, Scientist here! Who happens to work for a large Pharma MNC working on a vaccine....one of several companies pumping billions into development.

Do you know something I should let my bosses know? That they are wasting all that money?

Polyvalent vaccines are not some great unknown.

TheSheriff

TheSheriff wrote: »

Hello, Scientist here! Who happens to work for a large Pharma MNC working on a vaccine....one of several companies pumping billions into development.

Do you know something I should let my bosses know? That they are wasting all that money?

Polyvalent vaccines are not some great unknown.

Go ask your boss in the morning if the vaccine they are working on will inoculate against future mutated strains.

Graham

Mod Note

please take the vaccine discussion to the appropriate forum.

global23214124

I've been on the hunt for a 1 bed apartment for a while and found one for 1300. I did the same search last year and couldn't see anything below 1500 unless it was a **** studio. Supply has definitely gone up with expats moving home as Dublin rent is expensive, airbnbs opening back up for rental etc. Places seem to be quicker to respond as well and follow up with you to see do you have any interest. It will be short lived when people start travelling back for work and stuff.